Insurability Of Natural Catastrophic Risks Underwriting Considerations - 6th International Istanbul Insurance Conference - Graeme Owens (2014)

1. Insurability of Natural Catastrophic Risks
Underwriting Considerations
Graeme Owens
Global Property Executive, Eastern Zone, EMEA
AIG Property Casualty
6th International Istanbul Insurance Conference
25th September 2014

2. 22
Insurability of Natural Catastrophic Risks
• Introduction
• Economic Cost / Insured Cost of Natural Catastrophe
• Underwriting Considerations

3. 33

4. 4
Superstorm Sandy – Storm Dynamics
Courtesy: CoreLogic

5. 5
Damaged Infrastructure
Courtesy: Twitter and ABC News

6. 6
Water Street!
Courtesy:

7. 7
2011 NATURAL CATASTROPHE EVENTS
Courtesy Source: MR NatCatSERVICE2011
:

8. US Convective Loss Events
Overall and insured losses 1980 – 2012 and First Half 2013
Overall losses (in 2013 values) Insured losses (in 2013 values)
Analysis contains: straight-line winds, tornadoes, hail, heavy precipitation, flash floods, lightning.
8Source: Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE.
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Convective events
are those caused by
straight-line winds,
tornadoes, hail,
heavy precipitation,
flash floods and
lightning
The insured and total
economic cost of
convective events has
rising tremendously
over the past 30+ years
(Bill. US$)

9. 9
Underwriting Considerations

10. 10
Randomness versus Certainty
 Increased Certainty
 Climate Change
Teleconnection

11. 11
Climate Change - US Convective Activity
For the first time research shows that climatic changes have already
influenced US thunderstorm losses

12. 12
Teleconnection - La Nina Effect

Source: Twitter and ABC News

13. 13
Quantifiable
 Business Globalisation
 Complexity of Supply Chains
 Increasing Demand for Contingent Cover
 Just in Time Production

14. 14
Recent Illustrative Events of CBI Impact
Tohoku Earthquake – 2011

15. 15
Impacts of Globalisation on Supply Chain Risk
Insured

16. 16
Shared responsibility
 Planning and Social Pressure
 Government vs Insurance accountability – Flood Re UK

17. 17
UK Floods 2012

Source: bbc
Source: BBCNews

18. 18
Economic and Mutuality Viability
 Risk Pooling
 TCIP - Turkey

19. 19
Words of Wisdom……..

20. 20
US Winter Storm CAT 35
US Spring Storms CAT 42&43
US Winter Storm (Oct 30) Tropical Storm Lee CAT 61
US Winter Freeze CAT 36
Brazil Landslide
Brazil Floods (Jan)
Australia Brisbane Floods incl Cyclone Yasi
NZ Christchurch EQ CAT 04
Thailand Floods
Typhoon Roke
Typhoon Talas
Kitami Hail Storm
Modelled Perils Non – Modelled/Under
Modelled Perils
Modelled, Un–modelled, and Under-modelled Perils in 2011
Hurricane Irene CAT 59 Japan
Earthquake

21. 21
Natural Catastrophe Words of Wisdom
“There are known knowns. These are things that we know”
Modelled Exposures
• UK Flood
• US Wind and Earthquake
• European Wind
“There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things
we know we don’t know”
Undermodelled and Un- Modelled Exposures
• Japan Tsunami following earthquake
• New Zealand liquefaction following Earthquake
• US and Thailand Flood
• Fire following any event

22. 22
Natural Catastrophe Words of Wisdom
“ But there are unknown unknowns. These are things that
we don’t know we don’t know”
Contingent Business Interruption

23. 23
Bring on tomorrowBring on tomorrow

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