Regional Perspective - Sarah Hendell-Blackford, SW Climate Change Impacts Partnership

1. Climate Change:
Implications for the South West
Sarah Hendel-Blackford
SWCCIP Manager & Coordinator
8 June 2006

2. • Observed climate change in the South West
• The regional response: SWCCIP work
• Future predictions and implications for the
South West

3. Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research

4. Global warming over next 40 years does not depend on emissions
scenarios:
Annual-meantemperaturerise,degC
High emissions
Medium-high
Medium-low
Low emissions
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research

5. Regional Response:
SWCCIP’s mission is to investigate, inform and advise on the
impacts of climate change in SW England
• Established 2001: Chaired by Environment Agency and
Government Office South West, partnership between key
regional stakeholders
• Emphasis on Adaptation
• 2003: “Warming to the Idea”, SW Climate Change Impacts
Scoping Study

6. The SW climate change study set
out to:
- Describe climate change scenarios for
the SW
- Identify the likely impacts of such change
- Suggest actions needed to respond to
impacts.
www.oursouthwest.com/climate

7. SWCCIP sector group work
• Agriculture
• Biodiversity
• Housing and Construction
• Local Government
• Tourism
• Utilities

8. SW anticipated changes
Summary of anticipated changes likely to affect the south west
(2050s and 2080s):
Summer:
2050s: Warmer by 1.5 -3.5ºC, drier by 15 to 30%
2080s: Warmer by 2-5.5ºC, drier by 25 to 55%
Winter:
2050s: Milder by 1.0-2.0ºC, wetter by 10 to 30%
2080s: Milder by 1.5-3.5ºC, wetter by 5 to 15%, snowfall decrease by 70 to 90%
Source: WTI 2003 adapted from UKCIP02

9. “If you think you’re too small to make a difference, try going to
bed with a mosquito”
What you can do:
• Find out more: www.oursouthwest.com/climate
• Raise awareness and plan for future changes
• Case studies?
sarah.hendel-blackford@environment-agency.gov.uk

10. Conclusions:
• Climate change is a “now” issue
• (In)Action has long-term implications
• Climate change requires adaptation and mitigation