Forecasting recommendation Forecast Methodology Obermeyer used combination of the “panel consensus” and “Delphi method” of qualitative forecasting for sales forecasts We used a single period inventory model to estimate the financial risk of underestimating and overestimating demand Single point forecast data provided is limiting. More complicated forecasting techniques require actual data collected over time Recommend next sales forecast results are summarize and redistribute to the team. Given results new questions should be asked of the team in regards to what assumptions to apply in the decision making process Forecast Assumptions Initial 10,000 unit order is riskier due to lack of demand information. Second 10,000 unit order is less risky because of better demand information on each style. The expected lose from liquidating inventory due to overestimating demand is assumed to be 8% of the wholesale price The cost of lost profit from underestimating demand is assumed to be 24% of the wholesale price The second order will allow us to adjust for quantities of each style based on better demand information Reduce the number of styles handled to lower complexity of planning and risk profiles Study fashion in Europe rather than waiting for Las Vegas shows Reduce production lead times, as the preparation of raw materials takes a long time. For example: To improve efficiencies, dye basic colors early in the year and fashion colors later in the season Dyers could be offered a long-term contract regarding Greige goods Develop relationships with big-time suppliers that are able to meet tight times and requested demand Increase distribution channels and service level requirements Collect and utilize historic data from previous years to better determine future trends Where possible, obtain feedback from retailers prior to Vegas