Jonas Sundell - riskhantering vid grundvattensänkning i sättningskänsliga områden
1. Riskhantering vid grundvattensänkning
i sättningskänsliga områden
Grundvattendagarna i Göteborg, 13-14 oktober, 2015
Jonas Sundell, Lars Rosén
Chalmers tekniska högskola
Institutionen för Bygg och miljöteknik
Avdelningen Geologi och geoteknik
lars.rosen@chalmers.se
13. Hur långt ska vi gå?
Value of Information Analysis – en form av CBA
– Nyttor av ny
information och
säkerhetshöjande
åtgärder
• Kostnader för ny
information och
säkerhetshöjande
åtgärder
$$$$$$$$
14. Ramverkförriskhantering
Risk Assessment
Risk Analysis
Define scope
Identify hazards
Estimate risks
Probabilities
Consequences
Risk Evaluation
Define tolerability criteria
Drawdown
Subsidence
Decision analysis of
alternatives
Ranking
Economic analysis of
alternatives
Value of Information
Analysis (VOIA)
Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
Decision
problem
Decision
alternatives
Decisions on
risk reduction
and risk control
Treat risks
Monitor
Managerial
review and
judgement
Acquire new
information
Update
Analyse
uncertainties
and
sensitivity
Develop
supporting
programmes
Document
and assure
quality
Report and
communicate
Review,
approve and
audit
Stakeholder values
Goals, criteria and preferences
15. Ramverkförriskhantering
Risk Assessment
Risk Analysis
Define scope
Identify hazards
Estimate risks
Probabilities
Consequences
Risk Evaluation
Define tolerability criteria
Drawdown
Subsidence
Decision analysis of
alternatives
Ranking
Economic analysis of
alternatives
Value of Information
Analysis (VOIA)
Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
Decision
problem
Decision
alternatives
Decisions on
risk reduction
and risk control
Treat risks
Monitor
Managerial
review and
judgement
Acquire new
information
Update
Analyse
uncertainties
and
sensitivity
Develop
supporting
programmes
Document
and assure
quality
Report and
communicate
Review,
approve and
audit
Stakeholder values
Goals, criteria and preferences
Probabilistisk
jordlagermodell
Hydrogeologisk
modell
Marksättnings-
modell
16. Riskområden
• Resultat av probabilistisk
jordlagermodell och
marksättningsmodell
• 2 cm marksättning
• 95:e percentilen
• 0,5, 1 och 2 m gv-sänkning
17. Genomförda och planerade publikationer
– A framework for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced
subsidence
▫ Peer reviewed conference paper och presentation, ISGRS
– A probabilstic approach for calculation of land subsidence on a macro-
scale
▫ Extendend peer reviewed abstract och presentation, International
Conference on Creep and Deformation Characteristics in Geomaterials
– Assessing the risk of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence
▫ Abstract och poster, Aqua 2015 - IAH
– A probabilistic apporach to soil layer and bedrock-level modelling for
risk sassessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence
▫ Tidsskriftsartikel Engineering Geology, accepterad med mindre revidering
– Uncertainty of geotechnical design parameters in risk assessment of
groundwater drawdown in urban areas sensitive to subsidence
▫ Tidsskriftsartikel, Georisk, kommer att lämnas in i feb 2016
18. Planerade studier
– History matching for finding probability density function of geotechnical
design parameters
– Vulnerability mapping of groundwater drawdown induced land
subsidence
▫ The soil- and bedrock level model will be combined with subsidence
observations (Satellit, sättningsdubbar)
– A study of approaches for estimating the possible magnitude of
groundwater drawdown for a planned underground construction
– Economic valuation of consequences
– Value of Information Analysis (VOIA) of risk reduction measures