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SEB January–September 2015
Press conference
Annika Falkengren
President & CEO
Highlights Q3 2015
2
Increased uncertainty
spurred market volatility
Continued strong asset
quality and improved
capital position
Muted customer activity
across most segments
Repricing of risk
3
Swedish credit spreads
5y covered bonds vs. 5y Sovereign
Stock exchanges
MSCI World and OMXSPI,
Indexed to 100 2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015
OMXSPI
MSCI World
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015
Swedish policy rate
40%
30%
19% 17%
13%
11%
23%
13%
2%
1%
7%
6%
27%
33%
36%
41%
5%
10%
6%
9%
9%
13%
7%
9%
2% 2% 1% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SEB Peer Peer Peer
Other
Institutions
Other retail loans (SME and
households)
Household mortgages
Housing co-operative associations
Real estate
Corporates
Sector credit exposure composition (EAD)1) FY 2014
1) EAD = Risk Exposure Amount / Risk Weight
Source: Companies ’ Pillar 3 reports 2014
SEB is a corporate bank and has the lowest exposure
to household mortgages and real estate
4
Profit & Loss, (SEK m) Jan-Sep '15 Jan-Sep '14 % Jan-Sep '14 %
Total Operating income 33,677 32,852 3 32,775 34,173 -4
whereof NII 14,343 14,933 -4 14,261 14,933 -5
whereof NFI 3,769 2,578 46 2,949 2,578 14
Total Operating expenses -16,616 -16,352 2 -16,616 -16,352 2
Profit before credit losses 17,061 16,500 3 16,159 17,821 -9
Net credit losses etc. -799 -1,050 -24 -799 -1,050 -24
Operating profit 16,262 15,450 5 15,360 16,771 -8
Tax expense -3,380 -3,058 -3,380 -3,240
Net profit 12,882 12,392 11,980 13,531
Jan-Sep '15
Underlying Reported
5
Financial summary
Key figures Jan-Sep ‘15 Jan-Sep ‘14 Jan-Sep ‘15 Jan-Sep ‘14
Return on Equity, % 12.8 13.3 11.9 14.6
Cost /income ratio 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.48
Earnings per share, SEK 5.88 5.72 5.47 6.19
CET1 ratio B3, % 17.8 16.2
Leverage ratio B3, % 4.5 4.1
Credit loss level, % 0.06 0.10
% Q3-14 %
Total Operating income 10,079 11,986 -16 11,332 -11
Total Operating expenses -5,452 -5,606 -3 -5,495 -1
Profit before credit losses 4,627 6,380 -27 5,837 -21
Net credit losses etc. -309 -226 35 -493 -37
Operating profit 4,318 6,154 -30 5,344 -19
Q3-15 Q2-15
4.7
3.7
0.9 0.7
6
Operating income by type, Q3 2015 vs. Q2 2015 (SEK bn)
Profit and loss (SEK m)
Net interest
income
Net fee and
commissions
Net financial
income
Net life insurance
income
Q2-15Q3-15 Q2-15Q3-15 Q2-15Q3-15 Q2-15Q3-15
Financial summary – excluding one-offs
47%
37%
9%
7%
Q2-15
Income distribution Q3 2015
Net interest income development
SEK bn, excluding one-off
7
Net interest income
Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014
Net interest income type
Q3 2013 – Q3 2015
3.7 4.1 4.4
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
0.6 0.6
0.2
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
0.5 0.4
0.1
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
Deposits
Funding & other
Lending
14.9
14.3
Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep'15
-4%
Net fee and commission income development
SEK bn
8
Net fee and commissions
Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014
Gross fee and commissions by income type
Q3 2013 – Q3 2015
Custody and mutual funds
Payments, cards, lending, deposits & guarantees
Advisory, secondary markets and derivatives
+9%
11.8
12.8
Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep '15
0.6 0.6 0.6
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
1.6 1.9 2.0
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
2.6 2.6 2.3
Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
2.6
3.8
Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep '15
0.8
1.2 1.1
0.8
0.7
0.3
1.3
1.6
0.9
Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15
Net financial income development
SEK bn, excluding one-off
9
NFI and total Markets result Q1 2013 – Q1 2015
Net financial income
Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014
Net financial income development
Q3 2013 – Q3 2015
Increased volatility in the quarter*
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
* (VIX S&P 500 volatility)
+46%
Operating leverage
excluding one-offs
Average quarterly income (SEK bn)
9.2 9.4 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.2
Avg
2010
Avg
2011
Avg
2012
Avg
2013
Avg
2014
Jan-Sep
2015
Average quarterly expenses (SEK bn)
5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Avg
2010
Avg
2011
Avg
2012
Avg
2013
Avg
2014
Jan-Sep
2015
Average quarterly profit before credit losses (SEK bn)
Notes: Excluding one-offs (restructuring in 2010, bond buy-back and IT impairment in 2012, sale of MasterCard shares and
Euroline in 2014, Swiss withholding tax in 2015). Estimated IAS 19 costs in 2010
3.4 3.5 4.1
4.8 5.5 5.7
Avg
2010
Avg
2011
Avg
2012
Avg
2013
Avg
2014
Jan-Sep
2015
10
Repo rate 1.25 1.75 1.00 0.75 0.00 -0.35
BNP 6.0 2.7 -0.3 1.2 2.3 3.0(F)
Sweden
Divisional performance
Excluding one-offs
11
7.8
4.7
1.9 1.6
1.0
Merchant Banking Retail Banking Wealth Management Life Baltic
Operating profit Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014 (SEK bn)
RoBE 13.0% (13.6) 14.2% (21.0) 19.8% (19.2) 22.0% (22.2) 18.8% (18.2)*
Business
Equity
(SEK bn)
61.5 (52.3) 34.3 (24.4) 9.6 (8.6) 8.4 (8.2) 8.1 (9.1)
Jan-Sep 2015
Jan-Sep 2014
*Excl. Baltic real estate companies
Credit demand and event-driven activities low, but
growth in net sales of mutual funds and life insurance
Low event-driven activities in the Nordics*
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Sep
'10
Mar
'11
Sep
'11
Mar
'12
Sep
'12
Mar
'13
Sep
'13
Mar
'14
Sep
'14
Mar
'15
Sep
'15
…and net sales of SEK 48bn YTD in Sweden
(Mutual funds net inflows Swedish market**)
Corporate credit portfolio
(SEK bn)
12
19%
22%
25%
8%
7%
6%
13%
SEB
Peer 1
Peer 2
Peer 3
Peer 4
Peer 5
Other
Total market share
Sweden, AuM
Peer 6 22%
SEB 12%
Peer 1 12%
Peer 2 11%
Peer 5 4%
Peer 4 2%
Peer 3 1%
Other 36%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Q1-13 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-15 Q2 Q3
Deal value
Number of Deals
Sources:
*Dealogic and Thomson Reuters
**Svensk Fondstatistik
(SEK bn) 2009 2014 Jan-Sep 2015
Non-performing loans 28.6bn 10.6bn 8.5bn
NPL coverage ratio 65% 59% 63%
Net credit loss level 0.92% 0.09% 0.06%
Customer deposits 750bn 943bn 975bn
Liquidity resources >10% ~25% ~25%
Liquidity coverage ratio N.A. 115% 116%
CET 1 ratio (Basel 3) 11.7% 16.3% 17.8%
Total capital ratio (Basel 3) 14.7% 22.0% 22.7%
Leverage ratio (Basel 3) N.A. 4.8% 4.5%
Strong asset quality and balance sheet
Assetquality
Fundingand
liquidity
Capital
Basel 2.5
Basel 2.5
13
Going forward
14
Continued disciplined execution
Resilience and long-term perspective
in challenging economic climate
Focus on customer relationships

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SEB third quarter 2015 results presentation

  • 1. SEB January–September 2015 Press conference Annika Falkengren President & CEO
  • 2. Highlights Q3 2015 2 Increased uncertainty spurred market volatility Continued strong asset quality and improved capital position Muted customer activity across most segments
  • 3. Repricing of risk 3 Swedish credit spreads 5y covered bonds vs. 5y Sovereign Stock exchanges MSCI World and OMXSPI, Indexed to 100 2013 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 OMXSPI MSCI World 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Swedish policy rate
  • 4. 40% 30% 19% 17% 13% 11% 23% 13% 2% 1% 7% 6% 27% 33% 36% 41% 5% 10% 6% 9% 9% 13% 7% 9% 2% 2% 1% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% SEB Peer Peer Peer Other Institutions Other retail loans (SME and households) Household mortgages Housing co-operative associations Real estate Corporates Sector credit exposure composition (EAD)1) FY 2014 1) EAD = Risk Exposure Amount / Risk Weight Source: Companies ’ Pillar 3 reports 2014 SEB is a corporate bank and has the lowest exposure to household mortgages and real estate 4
  • 5. Profit & Loss, (SEK m) Jan-Sep '15 Jan-Sep '14 % Jan-Sep '14 % Total Operating income 33,677 32,852 3 32,775 34,173 -4 whereof NII 14,343 14,933 -4 14,261 14,933 -5 whereof NFI 3,769 2,578 46 2,949 2,578 14 Total Operating expenses -16,616 -16,352 2 -16,616 -16,352 2 Profit before credit losses 17,061 16,500 3 16,159 17,821 -9 Net credit losses etc. -799 -1,050 -24 -799 -1,050 -24 Operating profit 16,262 15,450 5 15,360 16,771 -8 Tax expense -3,380 -3,058 -3,380 -3,240 Net profit 12,882 12,392 11,980 13,531 Jan-Sep '15 Underlying Reported 5 Financial summary Key figures Jan-Sep ‘15 Jan-Sep ‘14 Jan-Sep ‘15 Jan-Sep ‘14 Return on Equity, % 12.8 13.3 11.9 14.6 Cost /income ratio 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.48 Earnings per share, SEK 5.88 5.72 5.47 6.19 CET1 ratio B3, % 17.8 16.2 Leverage ratio B3, % 4.5 4.1 Credit loss level, % 0.06 0.10
  • 6. % Q3-14 % Total Operating income 10,079 11,986 -16 11,332 -11 Total Operating expenses -5,452 -5,606 -3 -5,495 -1 Profit before credit losses 4,627 6,380 -27 5,837 -21 Net credit losses etc. -309 -226 35 -493 -37 Operating profit 4,318 6,154 -30 5,344 -19 Q3-15 Q2-15 4.7 3.7 0.9 0.7 6 Operating income by type, Q3 2015 vs. Q2 2015 (SEK bn) Profit and loss (SEK m) Net interest income Net fee and commissions Net financial income Net life insurance income Q2-15Q3-15 Q2-15Q3-15 Q2-15Q3-15 Q2-15Q3-15 Financial summary – excluding one-offs 47% 37% 9% 7% Q2-15 Income distribution Q3 2015
  • 7. Net interest income development SEK bn, excluding one-off 7 Net interest income Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014 Net interest income type Q3 2013 – Q3 2015 3.7 4.1 4.4 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 0.6 0.6 0.2 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 0.5 0.4 0.1 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 Deposits Funding & other Lending 14.9 14.3 Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep'15 -4%
  • 8. Net fee and commission income development SEK bn 8 Net fee and commissions Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014 Gross fee and commissions by income type Q3 2013 – Q3 2015 Custody and mutual funds Payments, cards, lending, deposits & guarantees Advisory, secondary markets and derivatives +9% 11.8 12.8 Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep '15 0.6 0.6 0.6 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 1.6 1.9 2.0 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 2.6 2.6 2.3 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15
  • 9. 2.6 3.8 Jan-Sep '14 Jan-Sep '15 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.9 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Net financial income development SEK bn, excluding one-off 9 NFI and total Markets result Q1 2013 – Q1 2015 Net financial income Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014 Net financial income development Q3 2013 – Q3 2015 Increased volatility in the quarter* 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 * (VIX S&P 500 volatility) +46%
  • 10. Operating leverage excluding one-offs Average quarterly income (SEK bn) 9.2 9.4 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.2 Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Avg 2014 Jan-Sep 2015 Average quarterly expenses (SEK bn) 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Avg 2014 Jan-Sep 2015 Average quarterly profit before credit losses (SEK bn) Notes: Excluding one-offs (restructuring in 2010, bond buy-back and IT impairment in 2012, sale of MasterCard shares and Euroline in 2014, Swiss withholding tax in 2015). Estimated IAS 19 costs in 2010 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.5 5.7 Avg 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2012 Avg 2013 Avg 2014 Jan-Sep 2015 10 Repo rate 1.25 1.75 1.00 0.75 0.00 -0.35 BNP 6.0 2.7 -0.3 1.2 2.3 3.0(F) Sweden
  • 11. Divisional performance Excluding one-offs 11 7.8 4.7 1.9 1.6 1.0 Merchant Banking Retail Banking Wealth Management Life Baltic Operating profit Jan-Sep 2015 vs. Jan-Sep 2014 (SEK bn) RoBE 13.0% (13.6) 14.2% (21.0) 19.8% (19.2) 22.0% (22.2) 18.8% (18.2)* Business Equity (SEK bn) 61.5 (52.3) 34.3 (24.4) 9.6 (8.6) 8.4 (8.2) 8.1 (9.1) Jan-Sep 2015 Jan-Sep 2014 *Excl. Baltic real estate companies
  • 12. Credit demand and event-driven activities low, but growth in net sales of mutual funds and life insurance Low event-driven activities in the Nordics* 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Sep '10 Mar '11 Sep '11 Mar '12 Sep '12 Mar '13 Sep '13 Mar '14 Sep '14 Mar '15 Sep '15 …and net sales of SEK 48bn YTD in Sweden (Mutual funds net inflows Swedish market**) Corporate credit portfolio (SEK bn) 12 19% 22% 25% 8% 7% 6% 13% SEB Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Other Total market share Sweden, AuM Peer 6 22% SEB 12% Peer 1 12% Peer 2 11% Peer 5 4% Peer 4 2% Peer 3 1% Other 36% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Q1-13 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-15 Q2 Q3 Deal value Number of Deals Sources: *Dealogic and Thomson Reuters **Svensk Fondstatistik
  • 13. (SEK bn) 2009 2014 Jan-Sep 2015 Non-performing loans 28.6bn 10.6bn 8.5bn NPL coverage ratio 65% 59% 63% Net credit loss level 0.92% 0.09% 0.06% Customer deposits 750bn 943bn 975bn Liquidity resources >10% ~25% ~25% Liquidity coverage ratio N.A. 115% 116% CET 1 ratio (Basel 3) 11.7% 16.3% 17.8% Total capital ratio (Basel 3) 14.7% 22.0% 22.7% Leverage ratio (Basel 3) N.A. 4.8% 4.5% Strong asset quality and balance sheet Assetquality Fundingand liquidity Capital Basel 2.5 Basel 2.5 13
  • 14. Going forward 14 Continued disciplined execution Resilience and long-term perspective in challenging economic climate Focus on customer relationships