SEB’s experts believe effects on financial markets and the economy will be short lived while nuclear problems pose a big risk.
The economists have assembled a chart package on possible economic effects from the Japanese earth quake. Among others they have included charts on growth and financial markets after Kobe quake, hurricane Katrina 2005 and the 9-11 terror attacks 2001. There are also some charts on the Japanese energy sector, implications for oil prices and Japanese holdings of US bonds.
Their main scenario remains that the impact on growth will be limited and that central banks will hike according to plans. They also discuss a risk scenario for growth and central banks if the nuclear damage should deteriorate.