This document outlines four scenarios for how the South African labor market may change by 2030 based on key trends and flags: 1. "Lone Wolf" - Increased outsourcing and freelancing leads to job losses at large employers while startups and failures increase, exacerbating unemployment and inequality. Unions lose power and central bargaining collapses. 2. "Squabbling Vultures" - Resistance to changes and lack of growth leads to high inflation, poverty, and corruption. Unions become more confrontational while employers pull out of bargaining structures. 3. "Blind Sheep" - Low growth continues due to instability and inflexibility. New cooperation helps reduce unrest but improvements are

1. LABOUR MARKET SCENARIOS FOR 2030:
People and Work – How will the South African Labour
Market Change over the next 14 years?
Marius Meyer
@SABPP1 @sabpp_1
TOP ACHIEVERS AWARDS, 28 OCTOBER 2016
Department of Industrial Psychology & People Management

2. It was a difficult academic
year

3. It was a difficult year in
business

4. Policy goals of NDP
• Maintain fiscal discipline & macro-economic stability;
• Achieve sustained GDP growth of 5,4%;
• Reduce unemployment to 14% by 2020 and to 6% by
2030;
• Overall civil service to improve efficiency and
implementation;
• Promote market competitiveness;
• Reduce cost of living;
• Reduce impediments to investment;
• Create jobs via entrepreneurship and reduce regulation,
as well as a public works programme.

5. Where are we now?
“We are where we are as a result of what
unethical leadership did to us as a nation.”
Chief Justice, Judge Mogoeng Mogoeng

6. SABPP Labour market scenarios
Facilitated by top scenario expert, Clem Sunter
Compiled by Penny Abbott

7. Future of work

8. SA Flags to watch (IRMSA)
1. Corruption
2. Quality of infrastructure
3. Inclusive leadership
4. Pockets of excellence - can they be
replicated?
5. Entrepreneurial revival

9. Flags to watch in labour
market
Flags are key trends (unfolding events).
1. Embracing the new world of work
2. Reaching an inclusive, collaborative
approach to labour market development

10. Labour Market Scenarios 2030

11. Scenario 1: Lone Wolf
• Many employers innovating & making fundamental changes to how work is done.
• More outsourcing & use of freelancers leads to decrease in employment among
large employers.
• Start-up business increasing, medium-size decreasing & failures increasing.
• Disruptive business models increasing, traditional businesses exit market.
• ICT & services grow, unskilled trapped into low wage.
• Economic growth accelerating, but unemployment & income inequality
accelerating – high levels of social & industrial unrest.
• People move from formal to informal sector – no suitable model of pay &
benefits to protect people.
• Unions try to protect members – traditional industries disappear.
• Unions lose membership & credibility, new unions spring up & cause unprotected
strike action due to lack of expertise & infrastructure.
• Employer organisations fragment & lose power. Central bargaining councils
collapse, employee benefit schemes transferred to insurance firms.
• Government tries to keep control – tough labour laws.
• More corruption & uncompetitive behaviour, education better; mismatches.

12. Scenario 2:
Squabbling vultures
• Resistance by all parties to recognise fundamental, technology-driven
changes to world of work results in continued low economic growth as SA
products become less attractive & less competitive.
• Lack of consumer led economic growth leads to higher inflation, less
employment and more poverty - income fail to keep up with high cost of living.
• Corruption & anti-competitive practices flourish.
• NDP remains a paper exercise.
• Business insists on free market approach, resists government intervention and
pulls out of centralised bargaining structures.
• BBBEE fails to be broad-based – benefits few.
• Unions losing members & political influence, become more confrontational –
business to their knees, more unemployment.
• More laws to protect workers; poor economic growth.
• Employee benefit schemes transferred to insurance companies.
• Education system fails to improve – low employment.
• Employers bring in skilled & professional workers, more illegal immigrants.

13. Scenario 3: Blind sheep
• Economic growth still low due to instability of private sector & SOEs to
adapt to new world of work.
• 3 parties recognise inderdependence – moves towards co-determination
to reduce industrial and social unrest.
• Labour market institutions remain largely unchanged, but more
cooperation in dialogue, willing to abandon fixed positions.
• Some improvements in education, but still on old world of work – skills
miss requirements of new world of work.
• Increased levels of trust.
• Corruption & anti-competitive behaviour decreases.
• Collaborative, trusting relationships unsustainable due to low economic
growth – the new partnerships see no results and therefore fragment.

14. Scenario 4:
Pride of Lions
• Economic growth accelerates on the back of innovative and adaptive private
sector, supported through social compacts between government, business &
labour.
• New ways of dealing with protection of vulnerable employees; new ways of
employing & training young people, new ways to match education system to
needs of new world of work.
• New structures & collaborative approach enable flexibility as the structure of
the economy and completely new business models emerge, flourish and are in
turn transcended and disappear.
• To reach social compacts, the parties have abandoned fixed, ideologically-
based approaches and found new ways to accommodate genuine and
fundamental interests of different segments of the population.
• Government and social partners have implemented the NDP, SA has an
efficient and politically independent civil service and as a result, service
delivery has improved and the lives of South Africans improve.
• Inequality and unemployment reduced, skills levels & labour stability improve
and SA’s overall competitiveness improves (better ratings agencies scores).

15. Labour Market Scenarios 2030

16. Closing thought
Let us work together to build strong future-fit organisations
and a functional labour market.
“Lions that fail to work as a team will struggle to bring down
even a limping buffalo.”
Minister of Finance,
Pravin Gordhan

17. Conclusion
HR Academics and Professionals and their
organisations should take an active role in shaping
the future. Let us start courageous conversations
and commit to real engagement and being prepared
to accept outcomes other than those which each
party prefers. A deep grasp of the socio-political
environment is required. Build relationships and
understanding to create a new way forward. We
need to reflect on the scenarios and commit to
collaboration in order to influence the future.
Congratulations to all the achievers!