Speculative development in River Ridge accelerates with the upcoming completion of the East End Bridge as 2.54 million square feet of space has delivered year-to-date in the submarket. Industrial employment growth receives a boost from Louisville’s “Big Three” (Ford, UPS, and GE/Haier). Developers are answering the call for new modern bulk warehouse product, construction is focused in the Southern Indiana, Airport, and Bullitt County submarkets.
2. Construction completions by quarter, submarket (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Louisville industrial employment
Source: JLL Research
Submarket vacancy rates
Source: JLL Research
3%
8%
13%
18%
23%
2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD 2016
Bullitt County Southern Indiana
-25.0
-15.0
-5.0
5.0
15.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Trade,Transportation & Utilities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Mining, Logging & Construction
River Ridge remains hot as East End Bridge nears completion
In anticipation of the December 2016 opening of the East End Bridge, new
construction in River Ridge has accelerated. Speculative projects exceeding 1.6
million square feet of space are scheduled for completion in the next six months.
This is in addition to year-to-date deliveries totaling 1.9 million square feet.
Considering that build-to-suit projects totaled only 525,000 square feet,
construction velocity indicates developers’ confidence. As land and construction
costs have risen, developers continue to press rental rates to historic highs.
However, as additional product is delivered over the coming 12 months, we
expect vacancy rates to increase while rental rates will level off.
Louisville’s companies try to keep pace with demand
Louisville’s “Big Three” (Ford, UPS, and GE/Haier) continue to serve as the
primary catalysts for industrial sector growth. UPS recently broke ground on its
$309.7million dollar expansion of the Centennial Hub ground-sorting facility,
which will triple its size to 838,000 square feet and double the sorting capacity.
Ford’s recent launch of the redesigned F-Series Super Duty truck required a $1.3
billion dollar renovation to the East End truck plant and increased employment by
2,000 workers. Haier finalized its acquisition of GE Appliances and pledged to
retain its roughly 6,000 employees and headquarters in Louisville. Coupled with
success in attracting e-commerce and logistics providers, these investments by
Louisville’s “Big Three” provide encouraging benchmarks.
Vacancy rises as speculative development delivers
Louisville’s Class A industrial market achieved its ninth consecutive year of
positive net absorption and developers are answering the call for new modern
bulk warehouse space. While new building deliveries resulted in vacancy rate
increases in the Airport and Southern Indiana submarkets in the third quarter,
Molto’s recent lease of 645,000 square feet at 2500 Export Drive softened their
impact. Conversely, Bullitt County has seen a brief decline in vacancy as Eby-
Brown leased 439 Park Loop Road. Development projects are not limited to
River Ridge: the Airport and Bullitt County submarkets expect to deliver 1.7
million square feet of speculative development over the next six to nine months.
Speculative construction sets record highs
Industrial Insight
Louisville | Q3 2016
$3.72
Average total asking rent
3,436,740
Total under construction (s.f.)
1,186,132
Quarterly completions (s.f.)
3,034,281
YTD net absorption (s.f.)
7.9%
Total vacancy
4,517,871
YTD Completions (s.f.)
646,669
Quarterly net absorption (s.f.)
56,241,112
Market size(s.f.)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
Airport Bullitt County East Southern Indiana
JLL | Louisville | Industrial Outlook | Q3 2016
4. Industrial Development Report
Louisville | Q3 2016
JLL | Louisville | Industrial Outlook | Q3 2016
This report analyzes all industrial developments under construction & new deliveries > 100,000 s.f.
Total leased at delivery (%) 59.9%
Total speculative at delivery (s.f.) 2,911,002
Total BTS at delivery (s.f.) 1,606,869
Total Owner-User at delivery (s.f.) -
Total # of properties delivered 14
Asking rental rate (low - high) $3.85 - $4.25
Top 5 projects delivered to date
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date
Leased at
delivery (%)
Airport Commerce Center I 622,426 Q1 2016 100%
100 Patrol Road 500,000 Q1 2016 35%
Pinchal River Ridge 458,640 Q3 2016 0%
Opus River Ridge 426,450 Q3 2016 0%
Jefferson Commerce Park 402,444 Q2 2016 0%
Total pre-leased (%) 24.9%
Total speculative under construction (s.f.) 3,226,640
Total BTS under construction (s.f.) 210,100
Total Owner-user under construction (s.f.) -
Total # of properties UC 7
Asking rental rate (low - high) $3.75 - $3.95
Top 5 projects currently under construction
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date
Pre-leased
(%)
Crossdock River Ridge 668,000 Q1 2017 0%
Aiport Commerce Center II 645,840 Q1 2017 100%
Gateway 600 592,800 Q1 2017 0%
LogistiCenter at 480 546,000 Q4 2016 0%
New Cut Center Bldg 1 450,000 Q2 2017 0%Speculative
Speculative
Owner Construction type
Speculative
Main Street Realty
Dermody Properties
VanTrust Real Estate
Molto Properties
Crossdock Development
Speculative
Speculative
Airport
Bullitt County
Southern Indiana
Airport
Southern Indiana
Historical deliveries (s.f.)
Construction typeOwnerSubmarket
Airport
Southern Indiana
Southern Indiana
Southern Indiana
Airport
The Schroering Company
Opus Group
Pinchal & Co.
Capstone Realty
Molto Properties
Speculative
Speculative
New deliveries
Completions in-depth
4,517,871
Total delivered YTD (s.f.)
Speculative
Speculative
Speculative
Submarket
Under construction
3,436,740
Under construction (s.f.)
Under construction in-depth
Upcoming deliveries by year (s.f., excludes YTD completions)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD 2016
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2016 2017
BTS Speculative
5. This report analyzes all industrial sales > 100,000 s.f.
$210,202,385
9
$83
6.15-7%
100.0%
0.0%
6-6.5% 0 - -
- 9 $210,202,385
Top sales transactions YTD
Size (s.f.) $ p.s.f. Sale date
303,369 $138 Apr-16
622,426 $59 Mar-16
611,000 $53 Jun-16
418,000 $62 Mar-16
470,000 $55 Jun-16
270,000 $55 Jun-16
221,000 $55 Jun-16
137,500 $82 Jun-16
212,500 $46 Apr-16
Versus/Molto JV
ARES
Prologis
Radial Inc. (Formerly eBay)
$37,000,000
$32,200,000
$25,750,000
$25,605,600
2311 South Park Rd Monmouth Real Estate Gray Construction $11,304,000
9001 Cane Run Road Industrial Property Trust Brennan Investment Group $9,700,000
Radial Inc. (Formerly eBay) $14,709,600
7700 Trade Port Dr Industrial Property Trust Radial Inc. (Formerly eBay) $12,040,080
9101 Cane Run Rd Industrial Property Trust
7111 Trade Port Dr Stoltz Real Estate Partners
7601 Trade Port Dr Industrial Property Trust
2501 Export Dr Patillo Industrial
649 Omega Parkway Industrial Property Trust
12900 Plantside Dr Columbia Property Investors Setzer Properties $41,893,105
Building address Buyer company Seller company Sales price $
Sales volume $ by submarket
Warehouse/Dist. sales volume
as % of total YTD
Flex/R&D sales volume as %
of total YTD
Cap rate range
Core Class A Ind.
Average Class A price p.s.f.
YTD* (skewed by FedEx sale)
At a glance
Total volume YTD
Number of transactions YTD
Average Class A cap rate YTD
Sales activity by building type
Transactions details
Number of partial interest
transactions
Top sellers (s.f.)Top buyers (s.f.)
Number of domestic
buyers
Foreign capital $
Average partial interest
acquired
Number of foreign
buyers
Domestic Capital $
3,265,795 s.f.
$210,202,385
0 s.f.
500,000 s.f.
1,000,000 s.f.
1,500,000 s.f.
2,000,000 s.f.
2,500,000 s.f.
3,000,000 s.f.
3,500,000 s.f.
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
Warehouse / Distribution
Sum of Price ($) Sum of RBA (SF)
55%
19%
13%
9%
4%
Industrial Property Trust Patillo Industrial
Stoltz Real Estate Partners Columbia Property Investors
Monmouth Real Estate
29%
19%
19%
13%
9%
7%
4%
Radial Inc. (Formerly eBay) Versus/Molto JV
ARES Prologis
Setzer Properties Brennan Investment Group
Gray Construction
$87,805,280
$48,304,000
$41,893,105
$32,200,000
Riverport
Airport
East
Bullitt County
Industrial Sales Activity
Louisville | Q3 2016
JLL | Louisville | Industrial Outlook | Q3 2016
29%
19%
19%
13%
9%
7%
4%
Radial Inc. (Formerly eBay) Versus/Molto JV
ARES Prologis
Setzer Properties Brennan Investment Group
Gray Development
68%19%
13%
9%
4%
Industrial Property Trust Patillo Industrial
Stoltz Real Estate Partners Columbia Property Investors
Monmouth Real Estate
6. Industry employment stratification: Louisville
Industrial Employment Update
Louisville | Q3 2016
4.9%U.S. unemployment
1.7%U.S. 12-month job growth
4.6%Louisville unemployment
2.7%Louisville 12-month job growth
5.0%Kentucky unemployment
1.2%Kentucky 12-month job growth
Employment vs. unemployment rate: Louisville
Job growth (12-month change): United States vs. Louisville
Job growth/loss by sector (12-month change): Louisville
Industrial employment trends (12-month change, 000s): Louisville
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
480,000
540,000
600,000
660,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment
Trade, Transportation
& Utilities
145,600 22%
Educational &
Health Services
92,500 14%
Professional &
Business Services
88,200 13%
Manufacturing
79,100 12%Government 76,000
12%
Leisure & Hospitality
72,200 11%
Financial Activities
47,800 7%
Mining, Logging &
Construction
29,000 4%
Other Services
25,300 4%
Information
9,100 1%
-25.0
-15.0
-5.0
5.0
15.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Trade,Transportation & Utilities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Mining, Logging & Construction
-2,100
-200
-100
0
1,500
1,800
1,900
3,300
4,300
6,900
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Government
Mining, Logging & Construction
Other Services
Information
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Educational & Health Services
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Louisville United States
JLL | Louisville | Industrial Outlook | Q3 2016
7. Industrial Submarket Map
Notable construction projects
JLL | Louisville | Industrial Outlook | Q3 2016
Gateway 600
Signed tenant(s): none
Square Feet: 592,800
Landlord: VanTrust
Estimated completion:
Q1 2017
Air Commerce Center II
Signed tenant(s): Confidential
Square Feet: 645,840
Landlord: Molto Properties
Estimated completion:
Q1 2017
Logisticenter at 480
Signed tenant(s): none
Square Feet: 546,000
Landlord: Dermody Properties
Estimated completion:
Q4 2016
Crossdock River Ridge
Signed tenant(s): none
Square Feet: 668,000
Landlord: Crossdock Development
Estimated completion:
Q1 2017
New Cut Center Bldg 1
Signed tenant(s): none
Square Feet: 450,000
Landlord: Main Street Realty
Estimated completion:
Q2 2017