Jll Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2021

Q1 2021
Louisville Industrial Outlook

© 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the
accuracy thereof.
Louisville is mirroring national trends that are rising across the
country, demonstrating a strong demand from e-commerce, logistics
and ancillary occupiers. The vibrant market velocity has pushed
developers actively pursuing potential sites to act quickly and
continued the compression of cap rates. These trends have been
building over the past 5-years within Louisville but have been
accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which changed consumers’
buying habits. The shift has had a large impact on industrial real
estate, as demand has grown, increasing pressure on developers to
control land and deliver product in a timely manner.
2021 started strong locally with over 1.4 million s.f. of net absorption
and an additional 1.0 million s.f. of product currently under
construction that was leased by Amazon. Leasing in the first quarter
was strong across the entire sector, as each submarket experienced
positive net absorption. Bullitt County posted the most leasing activity
with MHS taking the Prologis expansion pad at 700 Omega Parkway,
Amazon leasing the long-vacant building at 3208 E. Blue Lick Road
and Falcon Fulfillment leasing the remaining 140,000 s.f. at 1065
Conestoga Parkway.
Speculative construction in Louisville continues with over 4.5 million
s.f. currently in production. Of the 4.5 million square feet, 88% is in
the Airport and Bullitt County submarkets. The continued
development of the Airport and Bullitt County submarkets is to be
expected as over 95% of net absorption in 2020 occurred in these
two submarkets. We expect these two submarkets, along with
Southern Indiana, to continue to lead the way in 2021.
The first quarter also saw the 1,040,158 s.f. Bourbon 1 building
transfer to LaSalle Investments. The transaction set the record for
lowest industrial cap rate in Louisville. The tenant, term and building
quality created a perfect buying opportunity that our market will be
hard pressed to replicate. However, we expect cap rates to trend
below 5% for the foreseeable future on well designed buildings with
high quality tenants.
Outlook
The momentum built up in the last two quarters of 2020 continued
into 2021 as Louisville is firmly established as an e-commerce and
logistics hub for tenants. Louisville’s distribution asset’s (e.g.
Worldport, interstate accessibility and geographic location) drive
interest from tenants and development of new product by both
existing and new developers evaluating Louisville.
Louisville industrial market continues momentum
from 2020 into 2021
Fundamentals Forecast
YTD net absorption
1,436,433
s.f.
▲
Under construction
4,554,680
s.f.
▶
Total vacancy 7.1%
▶
Sublease vacancy
780,000
s.f.
▶
Direct asking rent $4.15 p.s.f. ▲
Sublease asking rent $4.09 p.s.f.
▶
Concessions Decreasing
▶
0
2
4
6
2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
2021
Supply and demand (s.f.) Net
absorption
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
2008 2012 2016 YTD 2021
Total vacancy (%)
$0
$2
$4
$6
2008 2012 2016 YTD 2021
Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.)
Direct Sublease
millions
Insight

The property set was updated to reflect the latest market dynamics, including the removal of functionally obsolete properties and the addition of recently completed
developments.
accuracy thereof.
Statistics
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy (%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,391,591 352,800 1.4% 5.2% $4.00 604,880 1,535,857
Bullitt County 13,647,026 -267,033 -2.0% 16.0% $3.98 0 2,205,258
East 6,135,648 0 0.0% 0.9% $5.95 0 0
Riverport 12,557,133 76,200 0.6% 4.7% $3.72 0 314,500
Southern Indiana 11,935,172 0 0.0% 9.9% $3.80 150,000 916,290
Louisville Totals 69,666,570 161,967 0.2% 7.7% $3.94 754,880 4,971,905
Analyzesall industrial buidingsgreater than 100,000s.f. with a minimum clear height of 24'
2,059,001
2,742,889
3,029,702
3,843,783
2,568,298
5,710,124
5,241,178
3,528,755
1,436,433
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2021
7.2%
6.6%
5.7%
8.7%
11.7%
9.4%
6.9%
8.4%
7.1%
2.0%
5.0%
8.0%
11.0%
14.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2021
Total Vacancy Rate %
Total Net Absorption
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy (%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,559,591 563,681 2.2% 4.1% $4.09 604,880 1,535,857
Bullitt County 13,647,026 -267,033 -2.0% 16.0% $3.98 4 2,205,258
East 6,135,648 22,000 0.4% 0.5% $5.95 0 0
Riverport 12,594,962 128,200 1.0% 4.3% $3.70 0 314,500
Southern Indiana 12,557,133 397,880 3.2% 11.5% $3.83 150,000 916,290
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy (%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,559,591 563,681 2.2% 4.1% $4.09 604,880 1,692,273
Bullitt County 13,647,026 -267,033 -2.0% 16.0% $3.98 4 2,205,258
East 6,135,648 22,000 0.4% 0.5% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 12,594,962 128,200 1.0% 4.3% $3.70 0 314,500
Southern Indiana 12,557,133 397,880 3.2% 11.5% $3.83 150,000 702,800
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy (%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,559,591 563,681 2.2% 4.1% $4.09 772,880 1,692,273
Bullitt County 13,647,026 -267,033 -2.0% 16.0% $3.98 0 2,205,258
East 6,135,648 22,000 0.4% 0.5% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 12,594,962 128,200 1.0% 4.3% $3.70 0 314,500
Southern Indiana 12,557,133 397,880 3.2% 13.2% $4.02 1,066,290 702,800
Louisville Totals 70,494,360 844,728 1.2% 7.8% $4.00 1,839,170 5,237,662
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy (%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,559,591 563,681 2.2% 4.1% $4.09 772,880 1,692,273
Bullitt County 13,647,026 -878,033 -6.4% 19.4% $3.98 0 2,205,258
East 6,135,648 22,000 0.4% 0.5% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 12,594,962 128,200 1.0% 4.3% $3.70 0 314,500
Southern Indiana 12,557,133 397,880 3.2% 13.2% $4.02 1,066,290 702,800
Louisville Totals 70,494,360 233,728 0.3% 8.5% $3.99 1,839,170 5,237,662
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy(%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,559,591 563,681 2.2% 4.1% $4.09 772,880 1,692,273
Bullitt County 13,647,026 -267,033 -2.0% 14.9% $3.98 0 2,205,258
East 6,135,648 22,000 0.4% 0.5% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 12,594,962 128,200 1.0% 4.3% $3.70 0 314,500
SouthernIndiana 12,557,133 397,880 3.2% 13.2% $4.02 1,066,290 702,800
LouisvilleTotals 70,494,360 844,728 1.2% 7.6% $4.00 1,839,170 5,237,662
Analyzesall industrial buildingsgreater than100,000s.f.withaminimum clear height of 24'
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy(%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,511,463 1,288,364 5.1% 2.4% $4.77 1,056,580 1,408,573
Bullitt County 14,687,184 1,847,495 12.6% 8.8% $4.13 1,296,658 908,600
East 6,135,648 22,000 0.4% 0.5% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 12,557,133 100,510 0.8% 3.7% $3.83 0 314,500
SouthernIndiana 12,850,962 -22,120 -0.2% 15.7% $3.98 1,066,290 702,800
LouisvilleTotals 71,742,390 3,236,249 4.5% 6.2% $4.13 3,419,528 3,657,304
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy(%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,511,463 1,288,364 5.1% 2.4% $4.77 1,056,580 1,408,573
Bullitt County 14,687,184 1,847,495 12.6% 8.8% $4.13 1,296,658 908,600
East 6,135,648 22,000 0.4% 0.5% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 12,557,133 100,510 0.8% 3.7% $3.83 0 314,500
SouthernIndiana 12,850,962 -22,120 -0.2% 15.7% $3.98 1,066,290 702,800
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy (%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 25,511,463 1,288,364 5.1% 2.4% $4.77 1,056,580 1,408,573
Bullitt County 14,687,184 1,714,905 11.7% 9.7% $4.11 1,296,658 908,600
East 6,135,648 22,000 0.4% 0.5% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 12,557,133 100,510 0.8% 3.7% $3.83 0 314,500
Southern Indiana 12,850,962 -22,120 -0.2% 15.7% $3.98 1,066,290 702,800
Louisville Totals 71,742,390 3,103,659 4.3% 6.4% $4.13 3,419,528 3,657,304
Analyzesall industrial buildingsgreater than 100,000s.f. with a minimum clear height of 24'
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy(%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 26,320,057 1,651,200 6.3% 2.8% $4.79 1,533,246 1,408,687
Bullitt County 15,595,784 1,834,151 11.8% 14.2% $4.03 2,205,258 1,370,520
East 6,142,002 -69,114 -1.1% 2.2% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 13,553,762 134,638 1.0% 3.4% $3.86 0 610,500
SouthernIndiana 12,557,133 -22,120 -0.2% 20.1% $3.99 1,769,090 0
Inventory
(s.f.)
2020
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
2020
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy (%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
2020
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 26,320,057 1,651,200 6.3% 2.8% $4.79 1,533,246 1,408,687
Bullitt County 15,595,784 1,834,151 11.8% 14.2% $4.03 2,205,258 1,370,520
East 6,142,002 -69,114 -1.1% 2.2% $5.95 0 322,831
Riverport 13,553,762 134,638 1.0% 3.4% $3.86 0 610,500
Southern Indiana 12,557,133 -22,120 -0.2% 20.1% $3.99 1,769,090 0
Louisville Totals 74,168,738 3,528,755 4.8% 8.4% $4.13 5,507,594 3,712,538
Analyzesall industrial buildingsgreater than 100,000s.f. with a minimum clear height of 24'
Inventory
(s.f.)
YTD2021
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD2021
total net
absorption
(%of inventory)
Total
Vacancy(%)
Average
total asking
rent
($p.s.f.)
YTD2021
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Airport 26,320,057 123,175 0.5% 2.3% $4.90 0 1,966,482
Bullitt County 15,595,784 702,000 4.5% 9.7% $4.02 0 2,042,198
East 6,464,833 200,000 3.1% 2.2% $5.95 322,831 0
Riverport 13,553,762 166,458 1.2% 4.5% $3.83 314,500 296,000
SouthernIndiana 12,871,633 244,800 1.9% 18.2% $4.06 0 250,000
LouisvilleTotals 74,806,069 1,436,433 1.9% 7.1% $4.15 637,331 4,554,680

This dashboard analyzes industrial sales over a 12-month period, ending March 31, 2021.
accuracy thereof.
Sales
$276,233,036
7
$76
4.75%- 5.50%
100.0%
0.0%
Topsalestransactionslast 12 months
Size(s.f.) $p.s.f. Saledate
857Park Loop* DermodyProperties ColonyCapital 546,000 $38,275,161 $70.10 Dec-20
ThackerayPartners RepublicNational 161,779 $11,100,000 $68.61 Oct-20
GlengarryPortfolio Black Creek Group Schroering 235,000 $18,512,000 $78.77 Oct-20
Main Street Portfolio Prologis Main Street Realty 1,302,890 $91,350,000 $70.11 Sep-20
7001SouthsideDrive SpearsManufacturing Summit 154,900 $9,748,000 $62.93 Aug-20
101Lewman Way Pinchal &Co. Gray 256,500 $12,247,875 $47.75 Aug-20
Buildingaddress Buyer company
Transactionsdetails
Seller company
12 monthsalesvolume$ bysubmarket
Salesprice$
RepublicNational Building
Topsellers(s.f.)
Topbuyers(s.f.)
AverageClassAsalepricep.s.f.
12 monthtransactionvolumeat a glance
Total volume
Number of transactions
AverageClassAcap raterange
Salesactivitybybuildingtypelast 12 months
Warehouse/Dist. salesvolumeas%of
total
Manufacturingsalesvolumeas%of total
3,697,227 s.f.
$276,233,036
0s.f.
500,000s.f.
1,000,000s.f.
1,500,000s.f.
2,000,000s.f.
2,500,000s.f.
3,000,000s.f.
3,500,000s.f.
4,000,000s.f.
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
Warehouse/ Distribution
Sum of Price($) Sum of RBA(SF)
35%
28%
15%
7%
6%
4% 4%
Prologis LaSalleInvestments
Dermody Pinchal
Black Creek ThackerayPartners
SpearsManufacturing
35%
28%
15%
7%
6%
4% 4%
MainStreet Realty Core5
ColonyCapital Gray
Schroering RepublicNational
Summit
$224,625,161
$28,260,000
$12,247,875
$11,100,000
Bullitt County
Airport
SouthernIndiana
East
$276,233,036
7
$76
4.75%- 5.50%
100.0%
0.0%
170Clermont Road LaSalleInvestments Core5 1,040,158 $95,000,000 $91.33 Jan-21
RepublicNational
Building
Transactionsdetails
Seller company
Salesprice$
Topsellers(s.f.)
Topbuyers(s.f.)
Total volume
total
3,697,227 s.f.
$276,233,036
0s.f.
500,000s.f.
1,000,000s.f.
1,500,000s.f.
2,000,000s.f.
2,500,000s.f.
3,000,000s.f.
3,500,000s.f.
4,000,000s.f.
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
35%
28%
15%
7%
6%
4% 4%
Dermody Pinchal
Black Creek ThackerayPartners
SpearsManufacturing
35%
28%
15%
7%
6%
4% 4%
ColonyCapital Gray
Schroering RepublicNational
Summit
$224,625,161
$28,260,000
$12,247,875
$11,100,000
Bullitt County
Airport
SouthernIndiana
East
$310,018,036
8
$75
4.75%- 5.50%
100.0%
0.0%
170Clermont Road LaSalleInvestments Core5 1,040,158 $95,000,000 $91.33 Jan-21
Park 480 Stoltz UBS 500,918 $33,785,000 $67.45 Nov-20
Total volume
total
Topsellers(s.f.)
Topbuyers(s.f.)
RepublicNational Building
Transactionsdetails
Seller company
Salesprice$
4,198,145 s.f.
$310,018,036
0s.f.
500,000s.f.
1,000,000s.f.
1,500,000s.f.
2,000,000s.f.
2,500,000s.f.
3,000,000s.f.
3,500,000s.f.
4,000,000s.f.
4,500,000s.f.
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
31%
25%
13%
12%
6%
5%
4%4%
Dermody Stoltz
Pinchal Black Creek
ThackerayPartners SpearsManufacturing
31%
25%
13%
12%
6%
6%
4%4%
ColonyCapital UBS
Gray Schroering
RepublicNational Summit
$258,410,161
$28,260,000
$12,247,875
$11,100,000
Bullitt County
Airport
SouthernIndiana
East

© 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to
the accuracy thereof.
Total leased at delivery (%) 25.2%
Total speculativeat delivery (s.f.) 5,390,045
Total BTSat delivery (s.f.) -
Total owner-user at delivery (s.f.) -
Total #of propertiesdelivered 12
Askingrental rate(low - high) $3.95- $5.25
Largest projectslast 12months
Building/Address RBA(s.f.)
Construction
Type
Current Status Delivery date
Leased at
delivery (%)
Bourbon LogisticsCenter 1,040,158 Speculative Leased Q32020 100%
Velocity 100 908,600 Speculative Available Q42020 0%
Gateway 700 702,800 Speculative Available Q42020 0%
Silver Creek LogisticsCenter, Bldg. A 659,790 Speculative Available Q22020 0%
Airport CommerceCenter IV 324,416 Speculative Leased Q42020 0%
Blankenbaker LogisticsCenter 322,831 Speculative Available Q12021 0%
Total pre-leased (%) 20.5%
Total speculativeunder construction (s.f.) 4,258,680
Total BTSunder construction (s.f.) -
Total Owner-user under construction (s.f.) 296,000
Total #of propertiesUC 10
Askingrental rate(low - high) $4.00- $5.15
Largest projectscurrently under construction
Building RBA(s.f.) Delivery date Pre-leased (%)
Bourbon LogisticsCenter 3 Bullitt County Core5 1,044,600 Speculative Q32021 0%
LogisticsAirpark Airport Nicklies 931,907 Speculative Q22021 100%
PrologisCedar Grove6 Prologis 671,678 Speculative Q42021 0%
LICBuildingG Clarion 476,780 Speculative Q42021 0%
Logistix Hub Louisville(Two-Buildings) Xebec 428,643 Speculative Q22021 0%
C5LogisticsCenter 325,920 Q32021 0%
Molto
Clarion
VanTrust
Browning
Core5
Under construction (s.f.)
Under construction in-depth
Upcomingdeliveriesby year (s.f., excludesYTDcompletions)
New and historical deliveries
Completionsin-depth
5,390,045
Total delivered past 12months (s.f.)
Owner
Submarket
Airport
Southern Indiana
Southern Indiana
Bullitt County
Bullitt County
East Hunt Midwest
Owner Construction type
Speculative
Bullitt County
Airport
Bullitt County
Core5
Airport
Submarket
Under construction
4,554,680
2,452,793
5,896,471
4,424,993
4,085,552
2,877,960
5,507,594
637,331
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2021
Owner-user Speculative
Construction
This report analyzes all industrial developments under construction & new deliveries > 100,000 s.f.

Construction
4
Location: 687 Conestoga
Parkway
Square feet: 325,920
Tenant(s): None
Landlord: Core5
4
2
Location: 5540 Minor Lane
Tenant(s): Amazon
Landlord: Nicklies
2
3
Address: 960 S. Preston
Hwy
Square feet: 1,044,600
Tenant(s): None
Landlord: Core5
3
1
1
Address: 7835 National
Turnpike
Tenant(s): None
Landlord: Clarion

24%
15%
13%
13%
11%
8%
7%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Educational & Health Services
Manufacturing
Professional & Business
Services
Government
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Economy
6.2%
U.S. unemployment
-6.0%
U.S. 12-month job growth
5.2%
Louisville unemployment
-5.2%
Louisville 12-month job growth
5.2%
Kentucky unemployment
-5.1%
Kentucky 12-month job growth
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
Trade, Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing
Other Services Mining Logging & Construction
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Employment Unemployment
Employment vs. unemployment rate
Employment by industry
Job growth (12-month change)
-15,500
-9,100
-7,800
-4,400
-2,100
-1,700
-400
0
600
5,800
-25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000
Leisure & Hospitality
Educational & Health…
Professional & Business…
Government
Other Services
Mining, Logging &…
Information
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation &…
Job growth*
Historical employment Job growth by sector*
Employment by industry Industrial employment*
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
Louisville U.S.
*Represents 12-month change in employment. All charts represent the latest economic data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics as of March 2021.
accuracy thereof.

Andrew Batson
Vice President, Director of Research
+1 216 937 4374
andrew.batson@am.jll.com
Alex Westcott
Research Analyst
+1 502 394 2504
alex.westcott@am.jll.com
About JLL
JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that
specializes in real estate and investment management. JLL
shapes the future of real estate for a better world by using
the most advanced technology to create rewarding
opportunities, amazing spaces and sustainable real estate
solutions for our clients, our people and our communities.
JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of $18.0
billion, operations in over 80 countries and a global
workforce of more than 93,000 as of December 31, 2019.
JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information,
visit jll.com
About JLL Research
JLL’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis and
insight through market-leading reports and services that
illuminate today’s commercial real estate dynamics and
identify tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities. Our more
than 400 global research professionals track and analyze
economic and property trends and forecast future conditions
in over 60 countries, producing unrivalled local and global
perspectives. Our research and expertise, fueled by real-
time information and innovative thinking around the world,
creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives
successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions.

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