The document summarizes the impact of COVID-19 on the automotive industries in the US and Europe as of May 14, 2020. In the US, auto sales forecasts were less negative than expected, many auto plants reopened in May, and commercial vehicle makers remained relatively stable. In Europe, vehicle registrations declined sharply in March and April, some auto plants reopened at low production levels while others had setbacks, and commercial vehicle makers led the resumption of operations. The document provides charts tracking auto plant reopenings, layoffs, financial measures, and forecasts across major automakers and suppliers in both regions.

1. 12020-05-14-RB-Auto-COVID-19-Tracker-Dashboard_vSENT.pptx
May 14, 2020 USA Automotive Industry COVID-19 Impact Tracker
Situation summary
OEM plant target re-open dates3)
Plant closures4)
> Sales forecast: Most recently J.D. Power
forecast is expecting May retail auto sales to
be down 16-26% compared to the previously
expected decline of 52% (seven weeks ago).
The relatively optimistic forecast is grounded in
early May numbers where, for the week ending
May 10, sales were down 26% compared to
last year. Some states are bouncing back
faster than expected releasing the pent-up
demand, e.g. Michigan was down 29% in early
May compared to almost complete lack of
transactions in April.
> OEM response: The relaunch of OEM
assembly plant is going on schedule for the
second week in a row. The second wave of
"southern" OEMs reopened their plants in the
last week with now roughly half of the
assembly facilities in the US running at some
capacity. The Big-3 all plan to reopen their
assembly plants starting May 18 under
permission from Governor Whitmer. Initial
production volumes are yet very low (e.g.,
Toyota anticipating 10% of capacity utilization
in May).
> Supplier response: Suppliers have continued
to reopen facilities, anticipating a ramp up in
OEM production over the next several weeks.
With automotive industry in Mexico finally
receiving the "essential" status, chances for a
better coordinated relaunch have increased.
> CV & Off-highway player response: CV &
off-highway players remain relatively stable,
with gradual reopening of plants. CV & off-
highway operations have been relatively
protected by COVID-19, since trucks, buses
and agricultural vehicles are seen as essential
components of lockdown operations.
Layoffs and furloughs4)
Executive pay cut4)
Credit rating downgrades4)
US LV market [m vehicles]
% of production facilities closed
(indicative)
% of companies announcing layoffs % of companies' credit rating downgraded5)
% of companies reducing executive pay
Cash reserves4)
Dividend suspensions4)
% of companies suspending dividends
% of companies excessively drawing on
credit lines
AvgQ1
AvgQ2
Apr
1.14
AvgQ3
Mar
Jan
0.71
1.48
AvgQ4
Feb
May
1.34
1.44
1.43
1.37
0.99
1.20
Inventory levels2)Vehicle sales1)
2019 2020
AvgQ3
AvgQ1
AvgQ2
Jan
Apr
Feb
3.94
AvgQ4
Mar
4.03
3.64
3.57
3.45
3.58
3.76
3.28
2019 2020
Actual Forecast Actual
Based on publicly announced actions
1) Source – Marklines; 2) Source – Wards Intelligence; 3) Source – Autonews; 4) Since Mar 1, 2020
5) Moody's
Top 10 Passenger Vehicle OEMs Top 30 Suppliers
Top 7 CV & Off-Highway OEMs
Current restart date (5/14) Previous restart date (5/7) * Partial shutdown
*
80%
60%
45%
70%
74%
43%
65%
80%
57%
73%
70%
86% 17%
33%
50% 30%
19%
14%
5/7 5/14 5/7 5/14 5/7 5/14
5/7 5/14 5/7 5/14 5/7 5/14
58%
<50%
41%
70%
74%
43% 57%
65%
80%
70%
77%
86%
37%
60%
17%
30%
14%
19%
* *** * *

2. 22020-05-14-RB-Auto-COVID-19-Tracker-Dashboard_vSENT.pptx
May 14th, 2020 European Automotive Industry COVID-19 Impact Tracker
Situation summary
OEM plant target re-open dates2)3)
Plant closures3)
> Sales forecast: Vehicle registrations in
Europe have seen modest declines of 7.5%
and 7.4% y/y in January and February,
before dwindling down 55.1% y/y in March
and 82.8% y/y in April. We expect
registration numbers to slightly pick up again
in May. IHS Markit forecasts European car
sales to drop by 24.6% y/y in 2020.
> OEM response: Plant closures have come
to an end for many European OEMs.
However, most plants run at significantly
reduced output levels. There have also been
setbacks. VW decided to halt its recently
resumed production of several models at its
Wolfsburg plant on four days in May due to
weak demand. Renault was forced by a
French court to halt production at its just
reopened plant in Le Havre due to safety
concerns regarding COVID-19.
> Supplier response: Suppliers also resumed
production at lower output levels at most
facilities. Like PV and CV OEMs, suppliers
increasingly tapped into credit lines and
other forms of fresh cash to cushion the
financial impact of the corona crisis. While
diversified players are also hit by the
pandemic, they generally fared better than
pure automotive suppliers so far.
> CV & Off-highway player response: CV &
Off-highway players have overtaken PV
OEMs and suppliers in both plant re-
openings and layoffs/furloughs. They
especially made use of "Kurzarbeit" and
other comparable instruments.
Layoffs and furloughs4)
Executive pay cut4)
Credit rating downgrades4)
Europ. LV market [m vehicles]
% of production facilities closed
(indicative)
% of companies announcing layoffs,
furloughs or short-time work ("Kurzarbeit")
% of companies' credit rating downgraded5)
% of companies reducing executive pay
Cash reserves4)
Dividend suspensions4)
% of companies suspending dividends
% of companies excessively drawing on
credit lines and/or receiving federal help
Avg
Q3
MarAvg
Q1
Avg
Q2
JanAvg
Q4
AprFeb
0.96
May
1.11
1.19
1.00
1.04
0.96
0.57
0.20*
0.45
New vehicle registrations1)
Actual Forecast
Based on publicly announced actions
1) Source – ACEA; 2) Source – Web research; 3) As of 05/14; 4) Since Mar 1, 2020; 5) Moody's, S&P, Fitch
13%
13%
0% 50%
60%
59%
90%
60%
38%
96%
70%
100%
50%
35%
13%
36%
20%
25%
Top 10 Passenger Vehicle OEMs Top 30 Suppliers
Top 8 CV & Off-Highway OEMs
2019 2020
*Preliminary
Week
of
April 6
April 13
April 20
April 27
May 4
May 11
May18
Indef.
5/7 5/14 5/7 5/14 5/7 5/14
5/7 5/14 5/7 5/14 5/7 5/14
28%
22%
16% 38%
58%
50% 80%
50%
25%
96%
70%
83% 13%
50%
35%
20%
31%
13%