This COVID-19 impact tracker highlights implications for the US automotive industry.

1. 12020-05-07-RB-Auto-COVID-19-Tracker-Dashboard_v04.pptx
May 7, 2020 USA Automotive Industry COVID-19 Impact Tracker
Situation summary
OEM plant target re-open dates3)
Plant closures4)
> Sales forecast: Official April sales have been
reported at a nearly 47% drop compared to last
year. J.D. Power is expecting May to be better than
April, though still down between 15-30% from pre-
pandemic estimates. Some state economies are
beginning to open back up in May which could
contribute to higher sales over the previous month.
> OEM response: Some plants have been reopened
the week of May 4, decreasing the percent of OEM
production facilities closed to 80%. The majority of
OEMs are still estimated to reopen between May
11 and 18. Contributing factors to the delayed
reopening include low demand, state regulations,
supplier readiness, and worker concerns over
health and safety. Reopening efforts will be on a
site-by-site basis with a gradual ramp up. Majority
of OEMs have already engaged in building up cash
reserves, reducing labor force and executives' pay
with no additional OEMs employing these
measures in the past week.
> Supplier response: A few suppliers continue to
slowly open production facilities and some have
even published their own variations of restart
playbooks. A Michigan automotive association is
asking the governor to allow suppliers to open
facilities at least one week before the OEMs to
allow time to ramp up production and avoid supply
shortages. Other suppliers are offering voluntary
buyouts or layoffs to employees to prepare for the
reduced production requirements.
> CV & Off-highway player response: Off-highway
OEMs are gradually reopening production facilities
but continue to announce incremental layoffs at
certain plants. Credit ratings remain relatively
stable though one major OEM was recently
downgraded. In addition to the COVID-19 impact,
some CV OEMs are predicting lower demand due
to the decline in oil prices as well.
Layoffs and furloughs4)
Executive pay cut4)
Credit rating downgrades4)
US LV market [m vehicles]
% of production facilities closed
(indicative)
% of companies announcing layoffs % of companies' credit rating downgraded5)
% of companies reducing executive pay
Cash reserves4)
Dividend suspensions4)
% of companies suspending dividends
% of companies excessively drawing on
credit lines
Mar
AvgQ2
0.71
AvgQ1
AvgQ3
Apr
Feb
1.43AvgQ4
Jan
May
1.34
1.48
1.44
1.14
1.37
0.99
Inventory levels2)Vehicle sales1)
2019 2020
AvgQ1
AvgQ2
Jan
AvgQ3
AvgQ4
Feb
Mar
Apr
4.03
3.94
3.64
3.57
3.45
3.58
3.76
3.28
2019 2020
Actual Forecast Actual
Based on publicly announced actions
1) Source – Marklines; 2) Source – Wards Intelligence; 3) Source – Autonews; 4) Since Mar 1, 2020
5) Moody's
Top 10 Passenger Vehicle OEMs Top 30 Suppliers
Top 7 CV & Off-Highway OEMs
Current restart date (5/7) Previous restart date (5/1) * Partial shutdown
* * *
90%
62%
52% 43%
70%
74% 55%
80%
57%
86%
70%
69%
40%
28%
0%
30%
19%
14%
5/1 5/7 5/1 5/7 5/1 5/7
5/1 5/7 5/1 5/7 5/1 5/7
80%
60%
45%
70%
74%
43%
80%
57%
65%
70%
73%
86%
33%
50%
17% 14%
30%
19%
*

2. 22020-05-07-RB-Auto-COVID-19-Tracker-Dashboard_v04.pptx
May 7th, 2020 European Automotive Industry COVID-19 Impact Tracker
Situation summary
OEM plant target re-open dates2)
Plant closures3)
> Sales forecast: Vehicle registrations in
Europe have seen modest declines of 7.5%
and 7.4% y/y in January and February,
before dwindling down 55.1% y/y in March
and 80.8% y/y in April. We expect
registration numbers to slightly pick up again
in May. IHS Markit forecasts European car
sales to drop by 24.6% y/y in 2020.
> OEM response: Most OEMs have reopened
some of their light vehicle production
facilities. Those who have not will mostly
reopen their plants until mid of May.
However, the re-opening process of all
plants can take weeks and most re-opened
facilities run on a significantly reduced output
level. For example, Volkswagen started with
15% output in its Wolfsburg plant and
ramped up production to 40% later on.
Short-time work is widely used.
> Supplier response: Continued cost cutting
measures are taking effect, while most
suppliers make use of short-time work. Even
well diversified suppliers are no longer
sheltered from the effects of OEM
shutdowns. Suppliers who already had
problems before the crisis are now hit
especially hard.
> CV & Off-highway player response:
Comparing plant closures and credit rating
downgrades to automotive OEMs and
suppliers, CV and off-highway OEM's got
away with a bloody nose so far. Many of
them use short-time work, whereas others
will shut down some plants completely.
Slowed production and shutdowns are
mostly driven by low demand.
Layoffs and furloughs4)
Executive pay cut4)
Credit rating downgrades4)
Europ. LV market [m vehicles]
% of production facilities closed
(indicative)
% of companies announcing layoffs,
furloughs or short-time work
% of companies' credit rating downgraded5)
% of companies reducing executive pay
Cash reserves4)
Dividend suspensions4)
% of companies suspending dividends
% of companies excessively drawing on
credit lines and/or receiving federal help
MayAvg
Q2
0.57
Avg
Q3
Avg
Q1
MarAvg
Q4
Jan
1.19
Feb Apr
1.11
1.00
1.04
0.96
0.96
0.22*
0.45
New vehicle registrations1)
Actual Forecast
Based on publicly announced actions
1) Source – ACEA; 2) Source – Web research; 3) As of 05/07; 4) Since Mar 1, 2020; 5) Moody's, S&P, Fitch
22%
28%
16%
50%
38%
58%
80%
50%
25%
78%
96%
83% 13%
50%
35%
13%
20%
31%
Top 10 Passenger Vehicle OEMs Top 30 Suppliers
Top 8 CV & Off-Highway OEMs
2019 2020
*Preliminary
Week
of
April 6
April 13
April 20
April 27
May 4
May 11
May18
Indef.
5/1 5/7 5/1 5/7 5/1 5/7
5/1 5/7 5/1 5/7 5/1 5/7
n/a n/a n/a
n/a n/a n/a