1. Star-bursting is prominently asking the questions of who, what, when, where, and why. In the
Wen Ho Lee case many of these questions had to be answered and using the technique of Star-
bursting helped generate leads to further aid intelligence development. When analyzing the
intelligence they were looking for who could it be that was a spy. Asking “the who” question,
they narrowed down the possibilities of what they already knew. They knew it was someone
from china and the information got to them from an inside source. Also, they had to get a lead
of when this was happening. Was it a certain time frame this took place? Was Wen Ho Lee
actively involved with the Chinese while working on this project? These are all good questions
to be asking to generate leads. Also, Lee took several trips to China for what it to be known as
personal travel. Where was he at it in China? Why was he there when he hasn’t made trips in the
past when working for the United States? Asking these questions using Star-Bursting can open
an analyzers mind to so much more than what is right in front of them.
A Force Field analysis helps analysts identify and assess all of the forces and factors
for and against an outcome and avoid premature or unwarranted focus only on one side of the
analysis. (Beebe, 2012) The realization I have come to find in force field analysis is that you are
weighing the arguments for and arguments against. After you calculate this, the total you come
up with decides if you are going in the right direction of someone being guilty of the crime.
A Premortem Analysis helps reduce the risk of analytic failure by identifying and
analyzing the features of a potential failure before it occurs. (Beebe, 2012) An analyzer has to
take all the intelligence they have and ask questions. While analyzing intelligence one has to
counter the intelligence collected and see the repercussions if the intelligence was wrong. This is
basically helping the intelligence analysts in their decision and making sure they are 100%
correct before passing a judgment.
Beebe, S., & Pherson, R. (2012). Cases in intelligence analysis: Structured analytic
techniques in action. Thousand Oaks, Calif.: CQ Press.
Was Wen Ho Lee A Spy?
After reviewing the numerous methods of intelligence Analysis in the Wen Ho
Lee case, it is clear to see that he is not a spy. Mr. Lee may have been guilty of
some things and was caught just by coincidence but he was naïve to what he had
done. Lee thought if he went down for one thing, then he would be condemned as a
spy. This made him very nervous and suspicious in the way he approached it. This
is the reasoning:
Fact: Wen Ho Lee was born, raised, and educated in Taiwan.
Possibilities:
1. Mr. Lee showed honor to his homeland and would do anything to help them out, even if it
involved espionage to the country in which he is a citizen in.
2. Mr. Lee only hailed from China and did not have any major part in helping their
government.
Probability:

2. Wen Ho Lee was a China native. This pinpointed him out when the investigation began in the
first place. Although he hailed from China, there is no certain evidence to find that he provided
his loyalty to the Chinese government.
Fact: The list brought forth by the investigators proved to be inconsistent and unreliable; only
including the people that had went to China on the budget of the DOE.
Possibilities:
1. Wen Ho Lee only made trips on which he was assigned to and personal
trips. The DOE was aware of these trips. Also, why would a person
knowingly commit espionage and leave a trail for someone to find because
they did it on the DOE’s travel budget?
Probability: Lee was singled out for being Chinese and holding clearance. He did
not recognize that this would be happening from the Chinese government and only
wanted to help better his citizen country.
Fact: Lee made professional and personal trips to China where he privately talked with a Chinese
nuclear researcher in a hotel room and also conversed with many researchers publicly.
Possibilities:
1. Lee wanted to converse with people who shared the same interests as
him, which is a limited number and already felt comfortable talking with
people from his home nation.
2. Lee gave information to researchers regarding the W-88 warhead to help
out China.
Probability: Lee went for professional trips to enhance his knowledge from people
all over the world. He also had shared interest with the Chinese and he could
engage in conversation regarding his work while not giving up classified
information from the United States.
Fact: Lee downloaded files from a secured computer to an unsecured computer while copying
the data.
Possibilities:
1. Lee wanted to take the data secretly and share it with the Chinese
government.
2. Lee wanted to document his life’s work because he was being laid off
and have what he had done for this country in his personal records.
Probability: Lee knew what he was doing was wrong when downloading these files
but he felt like he had dedicated his life to the work of this warhead and would not
be able to access his hard work after being laid off.
Fact: Lee took the polygraph twice and failed it on the second time.
Possibilities:
1. Lee had trained himself to lie on the polygraph and when confronted
again with another series of questions he was not entirely ready.
2. Lee was nervous when taking the polygraph a second time because he
knew he was still be accused after successfully taking it the first.

3. Probability: The polygraph is not sustainable as evidence in any matter because it
is flawed. Lee was nervous for the accusations against him and it probably gave a
false reading while taking it.
Fact: Wen Ho Lee denied many accusations but when confronted with evidence in him being
guilty he began to provide explanations.
Possibility:
1. Mr. Lee deliberately knew what he was doing was wrong with the
documentation and was working with the Chinese government as a spy.
2. Lee did not think anything of the documents he was downloading and
copying because he was unaware of the repercussions and did not have
any bad intention with it but when confronted with possible charges, he
tried to cover it up because he realized he had done something un-ethical
in the government’s eyes.
Probability: Lee did not think about what he was doing while mis-handling the
documents and with all the accusations on him it made him nervous. He thought
that if he admitted to one wrong thing he did that it would automatically condemn
him as a spy.
It is probable that Wen Ho Lee was credulous in the way he did things but it is
also probable that he is not guilty of espionage against the United States.