1. The Luna case used the hypothesis generation method of analysis to formulate
what could have happened to Luna. This method of testing is suppose too broaden the
spectrum of what could have happened and not limited it. They asked the Who, What,
When, Where, and Why questions. The FBI came to a leading hypothesis that Luna
had committed suicide. In the way they used hypothesis generation, they did not
formulate a broad spectrum for this case. Instead, they took only two to three things
and stuck with them throughout not exploring other options. This can lead to a homicide
being unsolved and a lack of skill with the intelligence analysts.
The FBI also used the Chronologies and Timeline technique to pinpoint
everywhere Luna had traveled after he had left the office. This proved fairly well
showing many places Luna had stopped and gathering witness testimonies along the
way. Although this proved well, there was many gaps open to speculation using this
technique. The only thing they pinpointed is where he stopped and the toll plazas he
went through. There is an unlimited number of possibilities available of where Luna
might have been and if Luna stopped to see anyone else. There just isn’t enough
information there to make a certain decision so it is left up to speculation.
The investigators also used the Analysis of Competing Hypothesis
technique. This technique is needed to help with incomplete information in a case and
is helpful in identifying and refuting certain hypothesis. This would have been helpful if
done correctly in the Luna case. There was so much missing information there left up
for speculation that there could have been a mass of hypothesis created. The problem
with the Luna case was that the spectrum of hypothesis was narrow and they did not
think as an analyst should.
Luna Case:
Fact: When Luna left his office, he left many things behind such as his cell phone
and glasses. There was also lights on and the computer monitor left on.
Possibility:
1. Luna left in a rush to meet someone and forgot things while not
worrying about turning things off because he knew that he would be
coming back.
2. Luna was coerced into leaving by someone and did not want to be
contacted.
3. Luna was ordered to leave by someone and requested he did not bring
any cellular device with him.
4. Luna was stressed with work and left to clear his mind.
Probability: Luna made contact with someone before he left his office and planned to
meet them someone where he could not be contacted.
Fact: There was no accurate testimony given to tell if Luna had people with
him or not.
Possibility:

2. 1. Luna did not have anyone with him in his vehicle and was followed at a safe distance under
order.
2. Luna had someone in his vehicle and people just could not testify if they had seen anyone or
not.
3. Luna did not have anyone in his vehicle.
Probability: Luna had someone that he had relations with tagging closely along with him
but never hinted that he had anyone with him to anyone. He acted as if there was no
one with him when he made purchases.
Fact: Luna purchased enough gas for two cars at the gas station but it never
clarified where the other gas went.
Possibility:
1. The store clerk did not pay attention to who was along with Luna and just saw the amount of
the transaction.
2. Luna filled someone else’s car up with his generosity.
3. Luna planned to buy enough gas for who was with him in a second car.
Probability: Luna had a portable gas tank and filled the container with gas for the other
person while they kept their car covertly hidden from public view.
Fact: Luna had financial problems and the FBI wanted to investigate him with
a polygraph regarding the missing robbery money.
Possibility:
1. Luna did not know what to do when this happened so he decided to stage his own torture and
hope they would feel pity for him.
2. Luna was knowingly working with someone to secure this money and the person was aware
Luna had an upcoming polygraph regarding the missing notes. This person then took it upon
their-selves to not be compromised for it.
3. Luna never had anything to do with the robbery money gone missing from his case.
Probability: Luna was working with an accomplice over this money and the accomplice
knew that he was going to be polygraphed. In turn the accomplice did what needed to
be done not to get caught.
Fact: Luna had lacerations and wounds that he could not have possibly
placed on his own back.
Possibility:
1. Luna was double-jointed without anyone else knowing and placed these lacerations on his
back.
2. Luna was tortured by someone before his ultimate death.
Probability: Luna had been cut all over his body by someone.
Fact: Luna was restrained and his genitalia was obscured.
Possibility:
1. Luna devised self-mutilation and created striations on his body to seemas if he had been
restrained.
2. Someone restrained him and took it upon their-selves to provide torture in a private region
before killing him.
Probability: A second person was with Luna that night and restrained him. After being
restrained he was then tortured immensely.
Fact: Luna’s had a witness in an investigation that was an FBI agent who was
a woman.
Possibility:

3. 1. Luna never really spent any significant time with her.
2. Luna only spent the time necessary for the case and it was strictly professional
3. Luna spent time with her and she was an accomplice in the robbery money that had been
missing as well as having an affair.
Probability: Luna had gotten involved with the female FBI agent who was a witness and
the two were secretly having an affair.
Fact: There was blood found in the FBI investigation but there was never any
DNA analysis released.
Possibility:
1. This was first mistaken as someone else’s blood but turned out to be Luna’s blood and never
clarified upon.
2. The blood was from a mistress FBI agent who got involved with the investigation to make
sure the blood sample was not tested.
3. The blood was from someone else and the FBI did not correctly do their forensics.
Probability: The blood found in the car that was unidentified was from the female who
was also an FBI agent.
Fact: The FBI mysteriously released that Luna had committed suicide even
though the coroner said this was not the case.
Possibility:
1. The FBI just wanted to close the case because people were spending too much time on it.
2. The FBI needed to close the case undersuicide to cover for one of its agents.
3. The FBI actually thought that the case was ruled as a suicide.
Probability: The FBI agent who was a witness got involved with who was handling the
case and swayed them to believe it was a suicide to cover herself.
It is probable that the female witness and FBI agent was an accomplice in
the money taken from evidence. It is also probable that the female knew Luna
was going to be polygraphed about the money from an inside source and took it
upon herself to kill him while covering the evidence up from the affair, money
stolen, being present with him, and the homicide.