This is a presentation delivered by Professor Trevor Taylor at the RAF Air Power Conference 2014.

1. Airpower Conference July 2014
Airpower and the Economy
Professor Trevor Taylor

2. Two aspects of the issue
Security supports investment and
economic activity
UK as a trading nation
Uses of airspace
Surveillance
Communication
Not just a sea power consideration
UK as a tourism destination and hub
for air travel
The impact of airpower capabilities on the
protection of the UK and its assets
airpower:
Capability to protect airspace
Capability to use airspace
Communication
Threatened and
actual damage
Transport
Japan and France in
a similar position

3. Surveillance and electronic warfare
increasing in importance?

4. Two aspects of the issue
Security supports investment and
economic activity
The (growing)
costs/opportunity costs
of airpower

5. Combat airpower as increasingly expensive
Rising costs at the platform level
procurement
Norman Augustine in USNorman Augustine in US
Pugh and Kirkpatrick in UK
MoD team led by Neil Davies
2012

6. Combat airpower as increasingly expensive
Rising costs at the platform level
procurement
support
The costs of capability integration,
involving multiple assets
Surveillance
Communication
Strike/weapons
Sustainment and reach
(tankers)

7. Combat airpower as increasingly expensive:
consequence
Context
1993 RAF Bruggen alone had four squadrons of combat aircraft:
60 GR1 Tornadoes60 GR1 Tornadoes

8. The results of combat air costs
Combat
aircraft 2013
No. of
countries
European countries 2566 35European countries 2566 35
Average aircraft per country 73
Median number of aircraft 42
Countries with less than 50
aircraft,
17
Of which, countries with
no aircraft
10
Source: IISS, The Military Balance 2014
The
serviceable
number?

9. The results of combat air costs
Combat
aircraft 2013
No. of
countries
Combat
aircraft
2023?2023?
European countries 2566 35
Average aircraft per country 73
Median number of aircraft 42
Countries with less than 50
aircraft,
17
Of which, countries with
no aircraft
10
Source: IISS, The Military Balance 2014

10. The economics of defence
Work done at home
sweetens the costs for the
government
Tax revenues
Preference for domestic
suppliers and contracts can
increase costs
Japan and its F.15sTax revenues
Multiplier effects
Reduced foreign
exchange risk
Technology and
management learning?
Japan and its F.15s
UK Apaches

11. However, building an aerospace sector
Hard, time consuming and
expensive to re-constitute
GermanyGermany
Japan
Italy
Hard, time consuming and
expensive to build up
India
South Korea
China

12. UK competent aerospace industry
Evidence from the amount of international civil and military work
15% of JSF (but avionics/electronics)
Airbus wings
• 17% of world
market
Suppliers to Boeing and Airbus
The benefits of
Relative continuity in defence
But current uncertainty
French/European vision in the civil domain
Government bail-out in the engine domain
Has helped the UK in the past to secure significant economic benefits
from the generation of airpower
market
• 75% of output
exported
• c.50% defence

13. Looking forward: the half full glass
Aerospace Growth Partnership
Defence Growth Partnership
Government stance on
National Security Through
Technology
R & D spending levelsGovernment stance on
manufacturing
Economic growth as a formal
Ministry of Defence objective
National Security Through
Technology
Procurement choices
e.g. Complex Weapons
Procurement choices
Rivet Joint
C.17
Reaper

14. Biggest single challenge
Making collaborative projects among peers work better
NATO Europeans and Japan constitute a large market
What is the alternative?What is the alternative?

15. Conclude: the need for affordability
The Western world must address affordability
perhaps through unmanned
cheap and cheerful aircraft beginning to appear from
beyond Europe and the big US firms ?beyond Europe and the big US firms ?
Proposition for debate:
UK public readiness to support defence expenditure will
decline if more is spent on ‘off-the-shelf’ equipment from
overseas?
Except in dire times, people care more about the
economy than about defence