Predictive Analytics using Neural Networks
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In this presentation I explain how Neural Networks can be used to do predictive analytics. I take the use case of predicting user buying behavior and explain how word2vec and LSTM network can be used for that.
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Predictive Analytics using Neural Networks
- 1. Predictive Analytics using Neural Networks: Applications, Pitfalls and Beyond Rudradeb Mitra https://www.linkedin.com/in/mitrar/
- 2. Today’s talk • What is Time-series data and Predictive Analytics? • Understanding (Deep) Neural Networks • One case study - How Neural networks are used for Predictive Analytics • word2vec • Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) • Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) • Pitfalls
- 7. Case study Predicting next purchase
- 9. Analyzing 3M Instacart Orders • Prior: ~3.2m orders • Train:~131k orders • Test: ~75k orders
- 10. Instacart Data product_id user _id eval_se t order_num ber order_dow order_hour_of_d ay days_since_prior_ord er 2539329 1 prior 1 2 8 7 2398795 1 prior 2 5 7 15 473747 1 prior 3 7 12 20 22544786 1 prior 4 1 7 21 4215438 1 prior 5 3 15 28 2295261 1 prior 6 2 7 19 2295261 1 prior 7 6 20 20 2550362 1 prior 8 5 14 14 1187899 1 prior 9 2 16 0 2168274 1 prior 10 2 8 30 1501582 1 train 11 1 11 10
- 11. Neural Networks
- 19. But how Neural Network can help in predicting?
- 20. word2vec- Predicting next word word2vec How Feeling You Are Today? Input words Predicted next word Hidden Layer Output Layer
- 21. word2vec
- 23. word2vec - The intuition behind
- 24. word2vec
- 25. Germany Vietnam Hanoi Berlin Vector distance ~ semantic distance Berlin - Germany + Vietnam = Hanoi Another way to Prediction using word2vec Berlin is the capital of Germany Hanoi is the capital of ?
- 26. word2vec - Predicting next order
- 28. Current approach to prediction for instacart 2539329 2398785 473747 2550368 1187899 word2vec (Product ID) (Predicted product ID)
- 29. What is missing?
- 30. vdts Instacart Data product_id user _id eval_se t order_num ber order_dow order_hour_of_d ay days_since_prior_ord er 2539329 1 prior 1 2 8 2398795 1 prior 2 5 7 15 473747 1 prior 3 7 12 20 22544786 1 prior 4 1 7 21 4215438 1 prior 5 3 15 28 2295261 1 prior 6 2 7 19 2295261 1 prior 7 6 20 20 2550362 1 prior 8 5 14 14 1187899 1 prior 9 2 16 0 2168274 1 prior 10 2 8 30 1501582 1 train 11 1 11 10
- 34. Long Short Term Memory Gates
- 35. Long Short Term Memory Cell state
- 36. Long Short Term Memory - Forget gate Forgetting the pronoun What to forget?
- 37. Long Short Term Memory - Input gate Adding new gender of the pronoun What to update? New candidate state
- 38. Long Short Term Memory - New internal state Forgetting Adding
- 39. Long Short Term Memory - Output gate Output Eg- subject singular or plural
- 41. Zolando’s approach to Prediction
- 42. Day1 Day 2 Day 3 A new approach to Prediction
- 43. Future Products
- 44. What is next?
- 46. Pitfalls?
- 48. Ethically Aligned design • How can we assure that AI/AS are accountable? • How can we ensure that AI/AS are transparent? • How can we extend the benefits and minimize the risks of AI/AS technology being misused?
- 49. • AI systems should be designed so that they always are able to show the process which led to their actions (Government decision-making) Guidelines