The QE Index rose 0.7% to close at 10,811.2. Gains were led by the Industrials and Banks & Financial Services indices, gaining 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.
1. Page 1 of 8
QSE Intra-Day Movement
Qatar Commentary
The QE Index rose 0.7% to close at 10,811.2. Gains were led by the Industrials and
Banks & Financial Services indices, gaining 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. Top
gainers were Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution and Industries Qatar, rising 2.4% and
2.0%, respectively. Among the top losers, INMA Holding fell 1.5%, while Qatari
German Co. for Medical Devices was down 1.2%.
GCC Commentary
Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index gained 0.1% to close at 10,913.6. Gains were led by
the Media & Entertainment and Banks indices, rising 4.1% and 1.7%, respectively.
Theeb Rent a Car Co. rose 6.7%, while Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. was up 5.3%.
Dubai: The DFM Index gained 0.9% to close at 2,868.0. The Investment & Financial
Services index rose 2.1%, while the Services index gained 1.9%. Mashreq bank rose
11.7%, while Dubai Financial Market was up 5.2%.
Abu Dhabi: The ADX General Index gained 0.5% to close at 6,736.1. The Insurance
index rose 6.1%, while the Industrial index gained 1.7%. Abu Dhabi National
Insurance rose 14.5%, while Fujairah Cement Industries was up 11.3%.
Kuwait: The Kuwait All Share Index gained 0.5% to close at 6,361.0. The Health Care
index rose 2.8%, while the Technology index gained 1.8%. Advanced Technology Co.
rose 14.6%, while Senergy Holding Company was up 9.5%.
Oman: The MSM 30 Index fell 0.2% to close at 4,033.8. Losses were led by the
Services and Financial indices, falling 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively. Ahli Bank
declined 4.3%, while Al Anwar Investment was down 3.8%.
Bahrain: The BHB Index gained 0.5% to close at 1,560.9. The Commercial Banks
index rose 0.8%, while the Insurance index gained 0.5%. Takaful International
Company rose 9.5%, while Khaleeji Commercial Bank was up 1.5%.
QSE Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 4.10 2.4 5.2 2.6
Industries Qatar 13.26 2.0 5,562.8 22.0
Mannai Corporation 3.68 1.6 290.1 22.6
Qatar International Islamic Bank 9.59 1.3 352.0 6.0
The Commercial Bank 5.37 1.1 1,642.1 22.1
QSE Top Volume Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev. 1.16 0.3 18,068.1 (8.4)
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 1.91 0.2 12,543.4 (6.6)
Salam International Inv. Ltd. 1.02 (0.5) 11,550.2 56.2
Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co 1.58 (0.1) 11,317.3 63.4
Baladna 1.59 (0.4) 9,581.0 (11.4)
Market Indicators 14 Jun 21 13 Jun 21 %Chg.
Value Traded (QR mn) 406.1 340.6 19.3
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 629,983.5 626,186.6 0.6
Volume (mn) 134.7 140.1 (3.8)
Number of Transactions 8,965 6,083 47.4
Companies Traded 47 47 0.0
Market Breadth 22:22 21:23 –
Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E
Total Return 21,401.48 0.7 0.8 6.7 18.3
All Share Index 3,436.54 0.7 0.9 7.4 19.1
Banks 4,539.99 0.7 0.9 6.9 15.8
Industrials 3,609.50 1.1 1.7 16.5 27.7
Transportation 3,364.70 0.1 0.2 2.0 22.5
Real Estate 1,859.91 0.0 (0.0) (3.6) 17.6
Insurance 2,640.25 0.5 0.8 10.2 23.7
Telecoms 1,051.22 (0.2) (0.4) 4.0 27.9
Consumer 8,196.81 0.1 (0.1) 0.7 28.7
Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,610.95 0.4 0.4 8.0 19.8
GCC Top Gainers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
HSBC Bank Oman Oman 0.11 3.8 20.0 19.8
Mabanee Co. Kuwait 0.75 3.4 2,028.0 21.0
Al Rajhi Bank Saudi Arabia 113.00 3.1 8,024.2 53.5
Industries Qatar Qatar 13.26 2.0 5,562.8 22.0
Bank Al-Jazira Saudi Arabia 18.92 1.9 9,952.2 38.5
GCC Top Losers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Ahli Bank Oman 0.11 (4.3) 17.2 (13.4)
SABIC Agri-Nutrients Saudi Arabia 121.00 (3.4) 544.3 50.1
Jabal Omar Dev. Co. Saudi Arabia 34.35 (3.1) 2,232.3 18.0
National Industrialization Saudi Arabia 18.40 (2.4) 5,494.8 34.5
Sohar International Bank Oman 0.10 (2.0) 44.3 5.5
Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the S&P GCC
Composite Large Mid Cap Index)
QSE Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
INMA Holding 5.22 (1.5) 687.3 2.1
Qatari German Co for Med. Dev. 2.65 (1.2) 2,118.4 18.4
Dlala Brokerage & Inv. Holding Co 1.68 (1.1) 922.6 (6.4)
Alijarah Holding 1.28 (0.9) 7,088.0 2.8
QLM Life & Medical Insurance Co 5.05 (0.9) 488.6 0.0
QSE Top Value Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD%
Industries Qatar 13.26 2.0 73,633.8 22.0
QNB Group 18.15 1.0 43,054.3 1.8
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 1.91 0.2 23,947.6 (6.6)
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev. 1.16 0.3 20,907.4 (8.4)
Masraf Al Rayan 4.45 0.1 20,411.9 (1.8)
Source: Bloomberg (* in QR)
Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD%
Exch. Val. Traded
($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
P/E** P/B**
Dividend
Yield
Qatar* 10,811.23 0.7 0.8 0.6 3.6 109.87 170,032.5 18.3 1.6 2.7
Dubai 2,868.02 0.9 0.9 2.5 15.1 85.00 106,882.0 21.8 1.0 2.8
Abu Dhabi 6,736.11 0.5 0.3 2.7 33.5 388.40 258,972.2 22.6 1.9 3.6
Saudi Arabia 10,913.56 0.1 1.1 3.4 25.6 4,057.47 2,599,383.6 35.8 2.4 1.8
Kuwait 6,360.95 0.5 0.9 2.4 14.7 244.86 120,318.8 40.5 1.6 2.0
Oman 4,033.78 (0.2) 0.1 4.7 10.2 9.18 18,094.6 14.2 0.8 3.9
Bahrain 1,560.87 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.8 2.04 23,908.0 26.8 1.0 2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Stock Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Market and Dubai Financial Market (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any)
10,700
10,750
10,800
10,850
9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
2. Page 2 of 8
Qatar Market Commentary
The QE Index rose 0.7% to close at 10,811.2. The Industrials and Banks
& Financial Services indices led the gains. The index rose on the back of
buying support from foreign shareholders despite selling pressure from
Qatari, GCC and Arab shareholders.
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution and Industries Qatar were the top
gainers, rising 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Among the top losers, INMA
Holding fell 1.5%, while Qatari German Co. for Medical Devices was down
1.2%.
Volume of shares traded on Monday fell by 3.8% to 134.7mn from
140.1mn on Sunday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average
of 207.2mn, volume for the day was 35.0% lower. Mazaya Qatar Real
Estate Dev. and Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding were the most active
stocks, contributing 13.4% and 9.3% to the total volume, respectively.
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (*as a % of traded value)
Ratings and Global Economic Data
Ratings Updates
Company Agency Market Type* Old Rating New Rating Rating Change Outlook Outlook Change
The Commercial
Bank
Moody's Qatar
BDR/BCA/ABCA/CR
R/CRA
A3/Prime-2/ba1/
ba1/A2-Prime-1/
A2(cr)/Prime-1(cr)
A3/Prime-2/ba1/
ba1/A2-Prime-1/
A2(cr)/Prime-1(cr)
– Stable –
The Commercial
Bank
Fitch Qatar LT-IDR A A – Stable –
Source: News reports, Bloomberg (* LT – Long Term, IDR – Issuer Default Rating, CRR – Counterparty Risk Ratings, BDR – Bank Deposit Ratings, CRA – Counterparty Risk Assessment, BCA – Baseline Credit
Assessment, ABCA – Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment)
Global Economic Data
Date Market Source Indicator Period Actual Consensus Previous
06/14 EU Eurostat Industrial Production SA MoM Apr 0.80% 0.40% 0.40%
06/14 EU Eurostat Industrial Production WDA YoY Apr 39.30% 37.40% 11.50%
06/14 Japan Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry Industrial Production MoM Apr F 2.90% – 2.50%
06/14 Japan Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry Industrial Production YoY Apr F 15.80% – 15.40%
06/14 India India Central Statistical Organisation CPI YoY May 6.30% 5.38% 4.29%
Source: Bloomberg (s.a. = seasonally adjusted; n.s.a. = non-seasonally adjusted; w.d.a. = working day adjusted)
Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR)
Qatari Individuals 34.18% 35.63% (5,908,560.3)
Qatari Institutions 18.20% 33.85% (63,565,611.3)
Qatari 52.38% 69.48% (69,474,171.6)
GCC Individuals 0.47% 0.66% (808,911.4)
GCC Institutions 3.49% 3.59% (398,412.9)
GCC 3.95% 4.25% (1,207,324.3)
Arab Individuals 11.98% 11.98% (1,468.7)
Arab Institutions 0.00% 0.00% –
Arab 11.98% 11.98% (1,468.7)
Foreigners Individuals 4.50% 3.28% 4,940,215.6
Foreigners Institutions 27.19% 11.00% 65,742,749.0
Foreigners 31.69% 14.29% 70,682,964.6
3. Page 3 of 8
News
Qatar
Moody's affirms CBQK's ratings with a stable outlook, and
places NBO's ratings on review for upgrade – Moody's
Investors Service (Moody's) has today affirmed The Commercial
Bank (CBQK)'s bank deposit ratings at A3/Prime-2 and
maintained the stable outlook on the long-term ratings. At the
same time the rating agency affirmed CBQK's ba1 Baseline
Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA, its A2/Prime-1
Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) and A2(cr)/Prime-1(cr)
Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment. Concurrently, the rating
agency placed on review for upgrade National Bank of Oman
SAOG (NBO)'s ba3 Adjusted BCA, Ba3 long-term deposit ratings,
Ba3 senior unsecured ratings, Ba2 long-term local currency CRR
and Ba2(cr) long-term CR Assessment. At the same time, the
rating agency affirmed NBO's ba3 BCA, Ba2 long-term foreign
currency CRR and all its short-term ratings and assessments at
NP and NP(cr). Today's rating action follows CBQK's recent offer
to the shareholders of NBO to acquire an additional 15.2% stake
in NBO, which if successful would increase its shareholding in the
bank to 50.1%. Following the potential increase in shareholding
CBQK would consolidate NBO as a subsidiary. The offer period
to the shareholders opened on 10 June 2021 and closes on 11
July 2021. (Moody’s, Bloomberg)
Fitch Affirms CBQK; Places NBO on RWP on acquisition
offer – Fitch Ratings has affirmed The Commercial Bank's
(CBQK) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A' with a
Stable Outlook, and placed National Bank of Oman SOAG's
(NBO) 'BB-' Long-Term IDR and '4' Support Rating (SR) on
Rating Watch Positive (RWP). CBQK's and NBO's Viability
Ratings (VR) are unaffected. A full list of rating actions is below.
The rating action follows an offer by NBO's largest shareholder
CBQK, on 3 June 2021, to acquire an additional 15.2% stake in
NBO which, if successful, would increase its shareholding to
50.1%. The offer is expected to close on 11 July and is subject to
CBQK obtaining necessary regulatory approvals in Oman and to
a minimum acceptance level by NBO's shareholders.
(Bloomberg)
PSA: Qatar core inflation tops general CPI in May – Qatar's
core inflation increased faster than the general consumer price
index (CPI) inflation in May 2021 on both yearly and monthly
basis, according to the official statistics. The CPI of May 2021
excluding “housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, surged
4.72% and 1.2% YoY and MoM, said the figures released by the
Planning and Statistics Authority. Meanwhile, Qatar's cost of
living, based on general CPI inflation, rose 2.47% YoY this May
mainly on higher expenses towards transport, restaurants,
communication and food. The country's CPI inflation was up
0.83% MoM in the review period, mainly owing to recreation,
clothing and food sectors. The index of transport, which has a
14.59% weight, was seen shooting up 13.15% YoY, but declined
1.46% on monthly basis in May 2021. The sector has the direct
linkage to the dismantling of the administered prices of petrol and
diesel as part of the government measures to lower the subsidies.
In May 2021, the price of super, premium gasoline and diesel
witnessed 76.19%, 80% and 57.14% surge YoY respectively.
However, on a monthly basis, the price of super was seen rising
2.78%; while that of premium and diesel declined 2.7% and
2.94% respectively. The index of restaurants and hotels, which
has a 6.61% weight, soared 5.6% on a yearly basis but witnessed
a 1.23% fall in May 2021. Communication, which carries a 5.23%
weight, saw its group index unchanged on a monthly basis but
saw a 4.3% jump YoY in the review period. Food and beverages,
which has a weight of 13.45% in the CPI basket, witnessed 3.46%
and 1.09% surge on yearly and monthly basis respectively in May
2021. Miscellaneous goods and services, with a 5.65% weight,
saw its index jump 3.93% and 1.1% on yearly and monthly basis
respectively in May 2021. Education, with a 5.78% weight, saw
its index gain 3.72% YoY, but was down 0.06% MoM this May. In
the case of furniture and household equipment, which has a
7.88% weight in the CPI basket, the index was up 3.27% and
0.09% respectively in May this year. The index of recreation and
culture, with an 11.13% weight in the CPI basket, shot up 2.28%
YoY despite a 10.97% surge MoM in May 2021. However, the
index of housing, water, electricity and other fuels – with a weight
of 21.17% in the CPI basket – saw 6.17% and 0.74% shrinkage
on yearly and monthly basis respectively this May. The index of
clothing and footwear, which has a 5.58% weight in the CPI
basket, contracted 3.31% YoY despite 2.77% monthly increase
in May 2021. The tobacco index, which has a 0.28% weight, was
unchanged on yearly and monthly basis in the review period.
(Gulf-Times.com)
Qatar Chamber: Rise in trade shows Qatar’s economic
recovery – Qatar’s economy has witnessed a remarkable
recovery from the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,
Qatar Chamber (QC) has said in its latest monthly report.
According to QC’s monthly economic newsletter for May, Qatar’s
economic status reached its pre-pandemic levels, where the
private sector exports exceeded QR1.938bn. Qatar’s intervention
to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the economy through
direct and indirect support led to a gradual recovery for the
economy. Referring to Qatar’s foreign trade, the report said that
Qatar saw a considerable growth of 61% to QR31bn in March
2021. The total exports of goods including exports of goods of
domestic origin and re-exports amounted to around QR22.1bn in
March, an increase of 7.3% compared to QR20.6bn in February.
The imports of goods in March amounted to around QR8.9bn, an
increase of 20.3% compared to QR7.4bn in February. Therefore,
the country’s foreign merchandise trade balance, which
represents the difference between total exports and imports
showed a surplus of QR13.2bn. China was at the top of the
countries of destination of Qatar’s foreign trade in March with
about QR3.9bn, a share of 12.5% of the state’s total foreign trade.
The volume of the private sector exports in March reached
QR1.94bn, showing a MoM increase of 17.9% compared to
QR1,644.5bn in February. On a YoY basis, it decreased by 0.3%
compared to QR1,954bn in March 2020. “This increase
demonstrated the ability of Qatar’s economy to overcome the
repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and returning to pre-
pandemic levels,” QC said. (Qatar Tribune)
Qatari-Saudi Follow-up Committee holds its third meeting in
Riyadh – The Qatari-Saudi Follow-up Committee held its third
meeting at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Riyadh yesterday.
The meeting was chaired on the Qatari side by HE the Special
Envoy of the Minister of Foreign Affairs for Regional Affairs Ali bin
Fahad Al-Hajri, and on the Saudi side by the Undersecretary of
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for Political and Economic Affairs
Ambassador Eid Al-Thaqafi. The committee’s meetings come in
implementation of the will of the two countries’ leaderships, and
in accordance with what was included in Al-Ula Declaration, and
to strengthen the bonds of the relationship between the two
brotherly countries. (Gulf-Times.com)
4. Page 4 of 8
Qatar's F&B sector poised for strong recovery – Qatar’s retail
and food and beverage (F&B) sectors are poised to have a strong
recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic with the phased lifting of
restrictions and allowing vaccinated nationals and residents from
other GCC countries, according to Mall of Qatar General Manager
Emile Sarkis. “There’s no doubt that it’s going to be very positive.
I think Qatar would be the first country (in the region) to recover,”
he told reporters on the sidelines of a recent event. The Ministry
of Public Health (MoPH) had announced that “GCC citizens, their
families and their household workers are allowed to enter the
State of Qatar at any time, provided they follow the travel and
return policy”. The MoPH added that “fully vaccinated GCC
citizens who have received any of the Covid-19 vaccines
recognized in Qatar with at least 14 days since the last dose and
present an official vaccination card or certificate are exempted
from quarantine". A detailed quarantine exemption criteria for
individuals vaccinated against Covid-19 in GCC countries is
posted on the ministry's website. (Gulf-Times.com)
International
NATO adopts tough line on China at Biden’s debut summit
with alliance – NATO leaders warned on Monday that China
presents “systemic challenges,” taking a forceful stance towards
Beijing in a communique at Joe Biden’s first summit with an
alliance that Donald Trump openly disparaged. The new US
president has urged his fellow NATO leaders to stand up to
China's authoritarianism and growing military might, a change of
focus for an alliance created to defend Europe from the Soviet
Union during the Cold War. The language in the summit's final
communique, which will set the path for alliance policy, came a
day after the Group of Seven (G7) rich nations issued a statement
on human rights in China and Taiwan that Beijing said slandered
its reputation. "China's stated ambitions and assertive behavior
present systemic challenges to the rules-based international
order and to areas relevant to alliance security," NATO leaders
said in the communique. Biden also told European allies that the
alliance's mutual defense pact was a "sacred obligation" for the
US - a marked shift in tone from his predecessor, Trump, who had
threatened to withdraw from the alliance and accused Europeans
of contributing too little to their own defense. "I want all Europe to
know that the US is there," said Biden. "NATO is critically
important to us." Biden stopped at the NATO headquarters'
memorial to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the US by al Qaeda
militants, when NATO triggered its Article 5 for the first and only
time. Under the article, the alliance treats an attack on one
member state as being an attack on all. Later at a news
conference, Biden, who will meet Russian President Vladimir
Putin on Wednesday in Geneva, said China and Russia were
trying to split the transatlantic alliance and that, while he was not
seeking conflict with Russia, NATO would respond if Moscow
"continued its harmful activities". He described Putin as tough and
bright. "Russia and China are both seeking to drive a wedge in
our transatlantic solidarity," Biden said. He also pledged to
support Ukraine in its conflict with Moscow, although he was non-
committal on whether Kyiv could one day join NATO. "We are
going to put Ukraine in a position that they will be able to maintain
their physical security," Biden said, without giving more details.
US Senate Republicans to discuss details of new
infrastructure plan – US Senate Republicans are due to hear
details on Tuesday about a bipartisan proposal to revitalize
America’s roads and bridges, which lawmakers believe could win
support from the caucus as a part of President Joe Biden’s
sweeping infrastructure plan. Members of a bipartisan Senate
group will discuss the proposal with Republican senators at their
weekly policy lunch, Republican lawmakers and aides said on
Monday evening. “We’ll be discussing it,” Senator Bill Cassidy, a
member of the group, told reporters. “It won’t be a formal sort of
‘OK - now we need your vote.’ It’ll be more kind of ‘OK - here’s
more information for you.’” The bloc of Senate moderates, five
Republicans and five Democrats, said last Thursday that it had
reached an agreement after negotiations between Republican
Senator Shelley Moore Capito and Biden broke down. It proposes
to spend $974bn over five years, or $1.2tn over eight years, a
source familiar with the package said. That is below Biden’s
current $1.7tn proposal and it is unclear whether it can gather
enough support to pass the 50-50 Senate. Senator John Thune,
the chamber’s No. 2 Republican, told reporters that he expects
Republican support for the proposal. “I don’t know how many
Democrats they can get for something like what they’re talking
about. But I think there would be substantial Republican support,”
he said. “It’s good work.” Senator Dick Durbin, the chamber’s No.
2 Democrat, said he had urged senators to “get this moving.” He
said any bipartisan deal, as well a separate measure Democrats
are eyeing to try to pass their remaining infrastructure priorities
without Republican support, would need to get in shape by the
end of June because of a tight floor schedule. Biden has set his
sights on infrastructure legislation that would both revamp the
nation’s roads and bridges as well as boost spending on services
including healthcare and childcare - although Republicans reject
the idea that those latter priorities even qualify for the label
“infrastructure.” The bipartisan plan unveiled last week sticks to
spending on physical infrastructure like roads and bridges,
members have said. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy
Pelosi, a Democrat, expressed some skepticism about it on
Sunday, saying it would be a hard sell to her party unless
Democrats can be assured that there is “more to come.”
UK shopper numbers dip 6.7% last week after strong
previous week – Shopper numbers across Britain fell 6.7% in the
week to June 12 compared with the previous week, which had
been boosted by a school holiday and improved weather,
researcher Springboard said on Monday. It said shopper
numbers, or footfall, fell 9.0% on high streets week-on-week, by
7.5% in shopping centres and by 0.9% in retail parks. "UK retail
destinations suffered post Bank Holiday blues last week, with
footfall dropping back by around half of the uplift recorded in the
week before, when the school half-term holiday coincided with the
Spring bank holiday and amazing weather," said Diane Wehrle,
Springboard's insights director. Overall UK footfall increased
11.6% in the week to June 5. Springboard said week to June 12
footfall was down 18.4% compared with the same week in 2019,
before the pandemic started to disrupt traffic. Non-essential
stores reopened in England and Wales on April 12 after more
than three months of COVID-19 lockdowns. They reopened in
Scotland on April 26 and Northern Ireland on April 30. Indoor
hospitality was allowed from May 17. However, British Prime
Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce on Monday that
the end of further restrictions will be delayed by several weeks
following concerns about a rapid rise of Delta variant infections.
read more Springboard said that with the removal of restrictions
set to be delayed by as much as a month, footfall is not likely to
strengthen significantly over the next four weeks.
Lagarde: Eurozone economy on right path but too early to
debate end of ECB help – The Eurozone economy is on the right
path but the recovery must be firm and sustainable before the
European Central Bank can debate clawing back emergency
support, ECB President Christine Lagarde told Politico in an
interview. “I am not suggesting that the pandemic emergency
purchase program (PEPP) is going to stop on 31 March,” Lagarde
was quoted on Monday as saying. “We have plenty of flexibility,
but in terms of economic outlook we are heading in the right
direction. “It is far too early to debate these issues,” she said
about the 1.85tn euro PEPP that is scheduled to last at least until
March 31 or until the crisis phase of the pandemic is over.
5. Page 5 of 8
Eurozone production stronger than expected in April –
Eurozone industrial production was stronger than expected in
April, driven by a more than doubling of durable consumer goods
output from a year earlier as economies steadily reopened after
COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, data showed on Monday. The
European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said industrial output
in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 0.8% month-on-month
for a 39.3% YoY surge. Economists polled by Reuters had
expected a 0.4% monthly and a 37.4% annual jump. The biggest
production gain in April against March was in durable consumer
goods, where output rose 3.4% after 1.2% monthly declines in
both February and March. In YoY terms, the gain in durable
consumer goods output was a spectacular 117.3% after a 34.5%
annual rise in March, with capital goods also surging 65.4% year-
on-year and intermediate goods up 38.7%.
French central bank sees stronger-than-expected rebound –
France’s economy is set to grow faster than expected as a
rebound gains momentum from the second half of the year, the
French central bank forecast on Monday. The economy was
poised to grow 5.8% this year, well above the euro’s zone
average of 4.6%, the Bank of France said, revising its forecast up
by 0.4 percentage points from its last estimate in March. The euro
zone’s second-biggest economy was then on course to grow
4.1% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023, up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage
points respectively from March, the central bank said in its
quarterly economic outlook. It said its monthly business surveys
showed activity picking up already in the three months to the end
of June, with quarterly growth expected at 0.5% from the previous
quarter. As coronavirus restrictions are gradually lifted and a
vaccination campaign gains further momentum, activity was seen
accelerating even more in the second half of the year. The
economy would get back to pre-crisis levels of activity from the
start of next year - earlier than previously expected - as a burst of
consumer spending and business investment fueled the
recovery. The central bank said households would start tapping
into the extra savings built up under coronavirus restrictions that
forced many retail outlets to close for months and which were
expected to peak at 7% of gross domestic product by year-end.
Business investment was already seen topping out at record
levels this year, as firms profit margins improved while companies
benefited from new tax breaks under the government’s 100bn
euro recovery plan.
Bank of Spain sees 2.2% second-quarter growth, ups longer-
term outlook – Spain’s economy is likely to grow 2.2% in the
second quarter from the January-March period, when it shrank
0.5%, thanks to rising internal demand unleashed by looser
COVID-19 restrictions and rising vaccination rates, the central
bank said on Monday. After a record 10.8% slump last year, the
central bank expects gross domestic product to expand between
4.6% and 6.8% this year, with its central scenario pointing to 6.2%
growth, up from 6% in its previous outlook released in March. It
also raised its forecasts to 5.8% for next year, from 5.3%
previously, and to 1.8% for 2023, from 1.7%. In the second
quarter, its quarter-on-quarter growth forecast ranges from 1.4%
to 2.7%. “This upturn in activity has intensified markedly in the
course of the second quarter of the year, in line with the more
favorable evolution of the pandemic,” the Bank of Spain said in
its report, though it added that uncertainty was still high. It also
predicted a services and consumption-driven recovery, thanks in
part to savings accumulated by Spanish households, to be
buoyed by a gradual recovery of the labor market and the
implementation of EU-funded business projects. Still, with
international travel likely to remain subdued amid concerns over
more contagious COVID-19 variants, the bank does not expect
Spain’s tourism-dependent economy to reach pre-pandemic
levels until the end of 2022. Chief Economist Oscar Arce warned
this summer would be far from normal in terms of tourist numbers
and expenditure, and pushed back a forecast for international
arrivals to recover pre-pandemic levels to 2023 from 2022.
Central bank: Dutch economy to rebound faster from COVID
slump than expected – Economic growth in the Netherlands will
rebound faster from the coronavirus slump than previously
expected, as consumers start spending pent up savings and
international trade continues to recover, the Dutch central bank
(DNB) said on Monday. The euro zone’s fifth largest economy is
set to grow 3% this year and 3.7% in 2022, the DNB said,
following a contraction of 3.7% last year due to the pandemic.
Growth is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2023. The central bank,
which late last year predicted growth of 2.9% for both 2021 and
2022, said the economy would be back to its pre-coronavirus level
at the end of this year. “The recession is less severe than
expected”, DNB director Olaf Sleijpen told reporters. “Consumers
and companies have adapted pretty well to the pandemic, and
international trade remained much stronger than expected.”
Growth has resumed in the second quarter, the bank said,
following a short recession caused by the coronavirus lockdown
due to which bars, restaurants and many stores were closed from
October. The lockdown has been gradually eased in recent
weeks, as the roll out of vaccinations significantly lowered the
infection rate. Bars and restaurants have reopened and
restrictions for non-essential stores have been lifted. The central
bank said the government had successfully helped companies
survive the health crisis with lavish support schemes, but should
try to phase out support in the coming quarter. “It’s now time to
deal with structural problems, such as the energy transition, the
housing market and labour market reforms”, Sleijpen said.
Despite heavy spending on coronavirus support, Dutch
government finances leave room for investments, DNB said.
Government debt is expected to peak around 60% of gross
domestic product (GDP) next year, while the government’s deficit
is set to shrink significantly as the economy recovers.
Ex-c.banker Sakurai: BOJ likely to extend pandemic-aid
scheme this week – The Bank of Japan is likely to extend a
September deadline for its pandemic-relief program at this week's
policy meeting, former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai said.
In an interview with Reuters conducted on Monday, Sakurai also
said it was "too early" to take further steps to revitalize the
Japanese government bond (JGB) market made dormant by the
central bank's huge presence. In a policy review in March, the
BOJ clarified that it would allow 10-year JGB yields to move 50
basis points around its 0% target in the hope of boosting market
trading. But trading volume in the JGB market dwindled to a near-
two-decade low in May, prompting some calls for the BOJ to take
more steps to revitalize the market such as trimming its bond
purchases. The BOJ meets for a two-day rate review ending on
Friday.
Survey: Brazil 2021 inflation, GDP and interest rate forecasts
surge to new highs – Forecasts for Brazilian growth, inflation
and interest rates in 2021 hit new highs, a survey of economists
showed on Monday, with the central bank now seen tightening
policy much faster as inflation sails above the upper limit of its
target range. The median forecast for 2021 inflation from more
than 100 economists in the central bank’s weekly FOCUS survey
jumped to 5.8% from 5.4%, more than two percentage points
above the bank’s year-end goal of 3.75% and well above the
5.25% upper limit of its wider range. Following the release of
stronger-than-expected first quarter gross domestic product
growth figures earlier this month, the median 2021 growth
forecast jumped to a new high of 4.9% from 4.4%, the survey
showed. Just over a month ago that stood at 3.2%. These findings
marked the 10th consecutive rise in the inflation outlook, and the
eighth rise in growth forecasts. The central bank is widely
6. Page 6 of 8
expected to raise its benchmark Selic rate by 75 basis points on
Wednesday for a third time, to 4.25%, and perhaps drop its
commitment to only a “partial” normalization of policy. The
FOCUS survey on Monday showed that economists’ year-end
Selic median forecast jumped to 6.25% from 5.75% a week ago.
Four weeks ago it stood at 5.50%. This shows economists now
believe the central bank will raise the Selic towards the so-called
‘neutral’ rate, widely considered to be around 6.00%-6.50%,
much earlier than previously thought. Next year’s median forecast
held steady at 6.50%. Central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto
said recently that the bank is “100% committed” to meeting its
inflation goals.
India’s May retail inflation picks up to 6.30% y/y, highest in
six months – India’s retail inflation accelerated in May, at its
fastest pace in six months as fuel and food prices rose at a higher
pace, putting pressure on the central bank to tame prices amid a
faltering economic recovery. The Reserve Bank of India earlier
this month warned that high energy prices could stoke inflation
while cutting the growth forecast to 9.5% from 10.5% for the
current fiscal year beginning April. Annual retail inflation
(INCPIY=ECI) rose 6.30% year-on-year, up from 4.29% in April.
Analysts had forecast retail inflation at 5.30%, according to a
Reuters poll. Economists fear a rise in prices after the second
wave of coronavirus hit the economy while killing tens of
thousands of people since April. "We expect the CPI (consumer
price inflation) prints to remain above 5% until September driving
the annual average CPI to 5.2% for current fiscal year," said
Garima Kapoor, economist institutional securities, Elara Capital,
Mumbai. She said the central bank could tolerate high inflation
close to the upper end of its 2-6% target band as the recovery
from the second wave was likely to be more gradual and subdued
than the first wave. Food prices, which account for nearly half of
the Ministry of Statistics' inflation basket, rose 5.01% YoY from
3.15% in the previous month. A global recovery has led to a rally
in commodity prices including crude prices. Brent crude futures
have risen to over $72 a barrel from a low closing price of $19.33
in March 2020. In India fuel prices have risen by over 30% from
May of last year. High energy and commodity prices are also
raising input costs for companies in India pushing wholesale price
inflation to at least a 15 year high of 12.94% year-on-year in May,
according to Refinitiv data. May core inflation, excluding food and
fuel costs, was estimated in the range of 6.54% to 6.56% by three
economists, after the data release. India does not release core
inflation numbers.
Regional
Saudi first quarter GDP shrinks 3%, hit by oil sector decline
– Saudi Arabia’s GDP fell 3% in the first quarter, slightly less than
official estimates and compared with a 1% contraction last year,
as a sharp fall in the oil sector pulled back the economy, data
showed. The Kingdom’s economy has been hit hard by the twin
shock of last year’s historic oil price crash and the COVID-19
pandemic. The non-oil sector grew 2.9%, from 1.6% growth a
year earlier, while the oil sector declined by 11.7% which was a
much sharper fall than the 4.6% contraction a year earlier, the
General Authority for Statistics said in a statement on Monday. In
flash estimates in May the authority said the economy shrank
3.3% in the first quarter and the non-oil sector grew for the first
since the first quarter of 2020. The non-oil and private sectors are
at the center of Vision 2030, de facto ruler Crown Prince,
Mohammed bin Salman’s transformation plan to wean the Saudi
economy off oil. Real GDP, an inflation-adjusted measure, shrank
4.1% last year. The International Monetary Fund expects the
Saudi economy to grow 2.1% this year. Saudi Arabia’s private
sector expanded by 4.4% in the first quarter and the government
sector declined slightly, by 0.4%, the official data showed. On a
quarterly basis, real GDP declined by 0.5%, mainly due to an
8.7% drop in the oil sector, while the non-oil sector expanded by
4.9% compared to the fourth quarter, driven by a 6.3% private
sector expansion as well as 1.7% growth in the government
sector. (Reuters)
ACWA Power raises SR2.8bn via Sukuk issuance – ACWA
Power raises SR2.8bn via Sukuk issuance. The funds raised
through a senior, unsecured floating Sukuk rate issuance with a
7-year tenor. The price guidance 100 basis points p/yr SAIBOR.
Issuance marks company’s entry into Saudi debt capital markets.
Fund managers, government funds and insurance cos accounted
for approximately 30% of issuance. Over-subscription was 1.8
times issue size. HSBC Saudi Arabia and Samba Capital acted
as joint lead managers and book-runners. (Bloomberg)
Dubai plane leasing firm DAE adds more banks to bond deal
– Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE), one of the world's biggest
aircraft leasing companies, has added more banks to its planned
sale of US dollar-denominated bonds that would be its second
this year, an investor presentation seen by Reuters showed. DAE,
owned by the Dubai government's main investment arm the
Investment Corporation of Dubai, will issue bonds in tranches of
three- and/or seven years to exercise a call option on bonds due
next year and 2024, the presentation showed on Monday. It will
also use the proceeds from the new bonds for general corporate
purposes. The bonds will be of benchmark size, which generally
means at least $500mn. A document from one of the banks on
the deal seen by Reuters on Friday did not specify a tenor and
said DAE hired BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Emirates NBD
Capital, JPMorgan and Trust Securities to organize fixed income
investor calls on Monday. (Reuters)
Dubai Islamic Bank hires banks for five-year dollar Sukuk –
Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB) has hired banks to arrange an offering
of US dollar-denominated five-year sukuk, or Islamic bonds, a
document showed on Monday. Bank ABC, Dubai Islamic Bank,
Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC, KFH
Capital, Standard Chartered and the Islamic Corporation for the
Development of the Private Sector will arrange fixed income
investor calls starting on Monday, the document from one of the
banks showed. (Zawya)
Nakheel sells business that supplies chilled air – Dubai state
developer Nakheel sold its business that supplies chilled air to
such local landmarks as artificial palm-shaped islands, according
to sources. Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corp, a joint
venture between a unit of Dubai Holding and a state-owned utility,
has acquired Nakheel’s cooling operations, the sources said. The
assets are worth around AED1bn, sources added. Coming off
years of declines in property prices, some developers in the UAE
have looked to offload their cooling operations, especially after
the coronavirus pandemic further upended the local economy.
(Bloomberg)
Malabar Investments joins Nasdaq Dubai private market –
Malabar Investments’ shares have been registered with Nasdaq
Dubai’s Central Securities Depository and will be traded through
Emirates NBD Securities. Trading will take place off-exchange as
the company remains privately held. Malabar Investments is the
international investment arm of Malabar Gold & Diamonds.
(Bloomberg)
ADIA reviews real estate strategy as pandemic bites – The
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), one of the world’s largest
property investors, is considering changes to its real estate
strategy during the coronavirus pandemic after some of its key
holdings, sources said. Sovereign Wealth Fund is reviewing the
asset performance of its assets following weakness in several
shopping malls and office buildings in its portfolio, according to
people who asked anonymity as the information is private. ADIA
may consider reducing its exposure to some troubled
7. Page 7 of 8
investments, the people said. ADIA has moved in recent years to
make more direct asset investments and rely less on outside
managers. According to estimates from data provider Global
SWF, the state-owned investor has amassed less than $700bn in
assets, and the ADIA states that real estate traditionally accounts
for about 5% to 10% of that overall portfolio. While ADIA will
continue to be a major player in property, it may shift its focus to
future deals and increase exposure in areas such as warehouses,
life science properties, technology hubs and affordable housing,
sources said. (Bloomberg)
Abu Dhabi fund bets on airplane leasing amid downturn – An
Abu Dhabi fund is backing a startup aircraft leasing company run
by former Ryanair Chief Financial Officer, Howard Millar to build
a fleet of 100 jets over the next three years. Abu Dhabi Catalyst
Partners, part-owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund
Mubadala, is an anchor investor in Sirius Aviation, which is
headquartered in the Emirate. Millar, who left Ryanair in 2014
after 23 years, told Reuters Abu Dhabi Catalyst Partners invested
$100mn in Sirius, which has joint ventures with US investment
firms Corrum Capital and HPS Investment Partners. Sirius,
established in March 2020, on Monday announced it had
acquired its first 10 jets. (Reuters)
Abu Dhabi exchange lists Etisalat's dual-tranche euro bonds
– The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) said Monday it has
listed the EUR1bn in dual-tranche bonds issued by UAE telecoms
operator Etisalat. The issuance, which was more than six times
oversubscribed, has been listed in two equal tranches maturing
in 2028 and 2033, ADX said in a statement. The first EUR500mn
in seven-year notes are set to mature on May 17, 2028 and carry
a 0.375% coupon. The second tranche of EUR500mn will mature
on May 17, 2033 and carry a 0.875% coupon. (Zawya)
National Bank of Oman’s outlook revised to Stable by
Moody's – National Bank of Oman's outlook has been revised to
Stable from Negative by Moody's. (Bloomberg)
Oman sells OMR218.4mn 28-day bills at yield of 0.637% –
Oman sold OMR218.4mn of 28-day bills due on July 14. The bills
were sold at a price of 99.951, have a yield of 0.637% and will
settle on June 16. (Bloomberg)
Bank ABC, FAB arrange $250mn Syndicated loan for Bank
Dhofar – Bank ABC and First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) acted as
joint coordinators, underwriters, initial mandated lead arrangers
and bookrunners on the two-year syndicated term loan facility.
The syndication was launched in May and was over 2x
oversubscribed. Total of 9 banks (excluding the joint
coordinators) from the GCC, Europe and Asia participated in the
facility. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait,
Bank of Baroda, Doha Bank, State Bank of India joined as
mandated lead arrangers. Commercial Bank of Dubai joined as
lead arranger. Banque Du Caire, HSBC Bank Middle East and
Mashreqbank joined as arranger. The facility will be utilized to
refinance its $250mn facility dated June 13, 2018. (Bloomberg)
Fitch affirms GFH at 'B'; with a Stable outlook – Fitch Ratings
has affirmed GFH Financial Group (GFH) Long- and Short-Term
Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'B'. The Outlook on the Long-Term
IDR is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed the 'B'/'RR4' senior
unsecured long-term rating of the $500mn 2025 certificates
issued through GFH Sukuk Company Limited (GFH SCL). GFH
SCL is a special-purpose vehicle, incorporated in the Cayman
Islands as a trust for charitable purposes, with its share capital
held by Walkers Fiduciary Limited. GFH SCL was established
solely to issue certificates (Sukuk). GFH is a Bahrain-domiciled
Shari’ah-compliant financial institution focusing on investment
banking, real-estate and infrastructure investments, asset
management, treasury activities and, via its majority-owned
subsidiary Khaleeji Commercial Bank (KHCB), commercial and
retail banking in Bahrain. The IDRs of GFH primarily reflect real-
estate concentrations in its investment portfolio, its dependence
on transactional gains for a significant share of its profitability and
its fast-growing treasury activities. The ratings also consider
GFH's resilient performance since the onset of the pandemic,
improved funding access (as evident in its Sukuk issuance in
early 2020) and management's strategic objective of reshaping
the company's business model towards more stable and recurring
revenue sources, such as fee generation and lower-risk, lower-
return investments. GFH's primary operating region is Bahrain
(B+/Stable), where the company is incorporated and operates
under an Islamic wholesale investment-banking license issued by
the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB). It is listed on the Bahrain,
Kuwait and Dubai Financial Market Stock Exchanges. GFH's key
business activities are commercial banking via the Shari’ah-
compliant banking subsidiary KHCB, real-estate investments,
investment- banking and treasury activities. Bahrain's sovereign
rating does not cap GFH's Long-Term IDR at its current level.
However, the operating environment still exerts an influence on
GFH's prospects, both in relation to the company's own domestic
investments and via the domestic-banking activities of KHCB.
KHCB is a significant contributor to GFH's revenue (around 20%
in 2020) and net profit, mainly through the provision of Islamic-
financing products, and provides a source of more stable deposit
funding to the group. Following a balance sheet clean-up exercise
in recent years KHCB's asset quality has been improving but is
still weak and lags higher-rated peers.' (Bloomberg)
Bahrain sells BHD43mn 91-day Islamic Sukuk; bid-cover at
5.13x – Bahrain sold BHD43mn of 91-day Islamic Sukuk due on
September 15. Investors offered to buy 5.13 times the amount of
securities sold. The Sukuk will settle on June 16. (Bloomberg)
8. Contacts
QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L.
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
info@qnbfs.com.qa
Doha, Qatar
Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Mehmet Aksoy, PhD
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa mehmet.aksoy@qnbfs.com.qa
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is
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Page 8 of 8
Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (*$ adjusted returns, #
Market was closed on June 14, 2021)
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21
QSE Index S&PPan Arab S&PGCC
0.1%
0.7%
0.5% 0.5%
(0.2%)
0.5%
0.9%
(0.5%)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Saudi
Arabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
Abu
Dhabi
Dubai
Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%*
Gold/Ounce 1,866.18 (0.6) (0.6) (1.7) MSCI World Index 3,019.88 0.2 0.2 12.3
Silver/Ounce 27.86 (0.2) (0.2) 5.5 DJ Industrial 34,393.75 (0.2) (0.2) 12.4
Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 72.86 0.2 0.2 40.7 S&P 500 4,255.15 0.2 0.2 13.3
Crude Oil (WTI)/Barrel (FM Future) 70.88 (0.0) (0.0) 46.1 NASDAQ 100 14,174.14 0.7 0.7 10.0
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 3.24 0.0 0.0 36.1 STOXX 600 458.32 0.4 0.4 13.9
LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 94.50 (0.5) (0.5) 25.6 DAX 15,673.64 0.1 0.1 12.7
LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 99.88 (0.6) (0.6) 43.7 FTSE 100 7,146.68 0.2 0.2 14.4
Euro 1.21 0.1 0.1 (0.8) CAC 40 6,616.35 0.4 0.4 18.2
Yen 110.07 0.4 0.4 6.6 Nikkei 29,161.80 0.4 0.4 (0.3)
GBP 1.41 0.0 0.0 3.2 MSCI EM 1,383.19 0.1 0.1 7.1
CHF 1.11 (0.2) (0.2) (1.6) SHANGHAI SE Composite# 3,589.75 - - 5.4
AUD 0.77 0.1 0.1 0.2 HANG SENG# 28,842.13 - - 5.8
USD Index 90.52 (0.0) (0.0) 0.7 BSE SENSEX 52,551.53 0.3 0.3 9.9
RUB 72.10 0.0 0.0 (3.1) Bovespa 130,208.00 1.8 1.8 11.8
BRL 0.20 1.1 1.1 2.6 RTS 1,687.37 0.5 0.5 21.6
143.7
138.1
106.9