Lecture #13 American Government; Public Opinion 2

1. WEEK #7 LECTURE #13
PUBLIC OPINION 2
AMERICAN GOVERNMENT
PROFESSOR ANAND SHASTRI
FALL 2015

2. PUBLIC OPINION #2 OUTLINE
2A) MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION VIA POLLS OR NOT
2B) TYPES OF POLLS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES
2C) WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN POLLING
2D) CITIZENS’ SHORTCUTS AND PUBLIC OPINION

3. 2A) MEASURING PUBLIC
OPINION VIA POLLS OR
NOT

4. PEOPLE POLL EVERYDAY
• PEOPLE POLL FRIENDS, FAMILY, NEIGHBORS, CO-WORKERS
• POLITICIANS POLL CONSTITUENTS, EVENTS, EMAILS, ETC.
• SAMPLE (PG. 413)
• SAMPLE BIAS (PG. 413)

5. QUALITY OF POLLING: PAST & PRESENT
• STRAW POLLS (PG. 413)
LITERARY DIGEST 1936 LANDON BEATS FDR
1) PEOPLE CAN CHANGE THEIR MINDS LATE, 2) DATA DRAWN FROM SAMPLES
WITH AFFLUENT, 3) HAD TO MAIL BACK QUESTIONNAIRES (ACTIVISTS)
POLLING TODAY MUCH MORE ADVANCED
1) GETTING A GOOD SAMPLE (RIGHT # & NO SAMPLING BIAS),2) ASKING
QUESTIONS THAT YIELD VALID RESULTS
HOW MANY IS ENOUGH??

6. SAMPLING AND ISSUES OF BIAS
• SAMPLING ERROR (PG. 416), PLUS OR MINUS, HOW RELIABLE
THE POLL IS
• RANDOM SAMPLING (PG. 416)
• SOME AUTOMATIC PROBLEMS OF RANDOM SAMPLING
• WEIGHTING (PG. 417)

7. 2B) TYPES OF POLLS AND
NEW TECHNOLOGIES

8. NATIONAL POLLS
• LIMITED PERIOD OF TIME TO MEASURE PUBLIC OPINION
USING NAT’L SAMPLE
• LENGTH A FEW HOURS, OR AT WEEKS IN AN ACADEMIC POLL
• PROFESSIONAL POLLING OR NEWS MEDIA POLL
• GSS AND NES

9. CAMPAIGN POLLS #1
BENCHMARK POLLS (PG. 418)
• INFORMATION ON NAME-RECOGNITION
• WHAT ISSUES ASSOCIATED W THE CANDIDATE
• WHAT ISSUES PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT
• OPPONENTS TOO

10. CAMPAIGN POLLS #2
TRACKING POLLS (PG. 418)
• ON GOING SETS OF INTERVIEWS
• NATE SILVER “POLL MASTER” USED THIS
EXIT POLLS (PG. 419)
• SHORT QUESTIONNAIRES POST-VOTE
• VOTE CHOICE, DEMOGRAPHICS, ISSUE, CANDIDATES
• THE BEST AND NOT BEST

11. PSEUDO POLLS & SURVEY EXPERIMENTS
PSEUDO POLLS
• SELF-SELECTION POLLS
• PUSH POLLS (PG. 419)
SURVEY EXPERIMENTS
• QUESTIONS DESIGNED TO GET “TRUE FEELINGS”
• EXAMPLE OF AFRICAN-AMERICANS & AFFIRMATIVE ACTION

12. TECHNOLOGY & POLLING
• ADVANCEMENTS, IN PERSON TO PHONE TO COMPUTER
• “ROBO CALLING” (CHEAP BUT ABUSED)
• ONLINE SURVEYS: - NOT RELY STRICT SAMPLES, + FEWER
RESPONSES AND MORE CANDID RESPONSES
• ACCURACY? BEST POLLSTERS ARE PERFECT (EXCEPT 2000)

13. 2C) WHAT TO WATCH FOR
IN POLLING

14. LOOKING AT THE WORDING OF QUESTIONS
• RESPONDENTS SHOULD BE ASKED ABOUT THINGS THEY KNOW
AND HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT
• QUESTIONS SHOULD NOT BE AMBIGUOUS
• SIMILAR QUESTIONS CAN YIELD DECIDEDLY DIFFERENT ANSWERS
SEQUENCE OF WORDS MATTER A LOT

15. INTERPRETING THE DATA #1
DIRECTION: A TENDENCY TOWARD A PARTICULAR PREFERENCE,
USUALLY CHARACTERIZED AS EITHER POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE
INTENSITY: DEGREE OF STRENGTH OR COMMITMENT THE PUBLIC
FEELS ABOUT THE OPINION IT HOLDS
CONTINUITY: TENDENCY FOR PREFERENCES TO REMAIN STABLE
OVER TIME

16. (PROF. SHASTRI) INTERPRETING THE DATA #2
THEORY BEHIND OPINION: WHY PEOPLE BELIEVE IN A
POLICY (AND WHY I THINK THIS MATTERS)
DOUBLE-PEAKED PREFERENCE: EXTREMES UNITED
AGAINST CENTER (FREE TRADE, $$ EDUCATION BILL)
IS IT MODERATION? EVEN SPLIT OF LEFT & RIGHT NOT
SAME AS MAJORITY-MODERATE

17. 2D) CITIZEN SHORTCUTS
AND PUBLIC OPINION

18. SHORTCUTS TO POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE
• RATIONAL IGNORANCE (PG. 426)
• ON-LINE PROCESSING (PG. 426)
• TWO-STEP-FLOW OF INFORMATION (PG. 427)
• OPINION LEADERS (PG. 427)

19. QUESTIONS ON PUBLIC OPINION
• WERE THE FOUNDERS RIGHT TO LIMIT THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MASSES ON GOVERNMENT?
• DO WE WANT LESS INFORMED AND COHERENT OPINIONS
REPRESENTED IN POLITICS?
• CAN DEMOCRACY SURVIVE IF IT IS RUN ONLY BY AN
EDUCATED ELITE?

20. FINAL THOUGHTS & POLLS IMPORTANCE
DESPITE MY CRITICISM……
1) POLLS ARE GENERALLY ACCURATE
• KEY IS PROPER METHOD
• VALIDITY: MEASURING WHAT YOU’RE TRYING TO MEASURE
2) IT’S WHERE SOCIAL SCIENCES RECEIVE STEM-LIKE RESPECT
• DONE BY SPECIALISTS
• INTERPRETED BY BEST PUBLIC OPINION INTERPRETERS