Lecture #17 American Government; Campaigns, Elections, & Voting 2

1. WEEK #9LECTURE #17
VOTING, CAMPAIGNS,
& ELECTIONS PART 2
AMERICAN GOVERNMENT
PROFESSOR SHASTRI
FALL 2015

2. OUTLINE OF CAMPAIGNS, ELECTIONS, & VOTING
PART 2
PART 2A) PRE-NOMINATION & NOMINATION CAMPAIGNS
PART 2B) THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
PART 2C) THE GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN
PART 2D) THEORIES ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTCOMES

3. 2A) PRE-NOMINATION &
NOMINATION CAMPAIGNS

4. PRE-NOMINATION CAMPAIGN
• “TESTING THE WATERS” & INVISIBLE PRIMARY (IP PG. 528)
• FEC FILING & EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE
• $$$$$ FUNDRAISING ABILITY, CREDIBILITY OR PROTEST?
• OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT OF CANDIDACY

5. NOMINATION CAMPAIGN: ISSUES & TERMS
• PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY VS. PARTY CAUCUS
• CLOSED PRIMARY VS. OPEN PRIMARY
• DIFFERENCES: IDEOLOGY VS. STYLE
PRIMARY CAMPAIGN TERMSN BASED TERMS
• FRONTLOADING
• FRONTRUNNER
• MOMENTUM

6. PARTY CONVENTION & ITS PURPOSES
• APPROVAL OF PARTY PLATFORMS & DISTINCT POSITIONS
• UNITE THE PARTY
• VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NAMED OFFICIALLY
• CONVENTION “BUMP” & GENERAL ELECTION MOMENTUM

7. PART 2B) THE ELECTORAL
COLLEGE

8. BASICS OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE
RULES
• # OF EV’S DETERMINED BY HOUSE MEMBERS +2 FOR SENATE
• NEED 270 TO WIN. 269-269 TIE? HOUSE VOTES (1 VOTE PER
STATE DELEGATION. YOU VOTE FOR ELECTORS, NOT PRESIDENT
STATE-TYPE BIASES
• LARGE STATES
• SMALL STATES
• COMPETITIVE STATES

9. EC: GOOD, BAD, & REFORMS
GOOD: 1) BRINGS PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF DIFFICULT
ELECTIONS 2) REQUIRES BROAD GEOGRAPHIC BASE OF SUPPORT
3) MORE RACIALLY REPRESENTATIVE 4) PREVENTS EXTREMISTS
FROM WINNING
BAD: 1) ANTI-DEMOCRATIC; 2) STATE EV’S WINNER-TAKE-ALL
3) SOLID REPUB & SOLID DEM STATES IGNORED, 4) HOUSE
SELECTION
REFORMS: 1) PROPORTIONAL EV, 2) DIRECT ELECTION, 3) BONUS
ELECTORS POPULAR VOTE WINNER

10. PART 2C) THE GENERAL
ELECTION CAMPAIGN

11. CAMPAIGN PROFESSIONALS & RULES OF CAMPAIGN
WORK
CAMPAIGN PROFESSIONALS
1)WAR ROOM” 2)CONSULTANTS 3)FUNDRAISERS 4) POLICY
PEOPLE
RULES OF WORKING ON CAMPAIGNS
1) DON’T ALLOW YOUR IDEOLOGY TO DICTATE YOUR CAMPAIGN
STRATEGY, 2) DON’T ALLOW YOUR VIEWS OF A POL, PARTY, FOR
ISSUES SHAPE THE ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE, 3) NO LITMUS TESTS,
4) NO WAVE A MAGIC WAND ONE SIZE FITS ALL SOLUTIONS

12. THE ISSUES
• VALENCE ISSUES (PG. 538)
• CLEAVAGE ISSUES
• CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
• WEDGE ISSUES
• ISSUE OWNERSHIP (PG.538)

13. THE MEDIA & PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES
BOTH ARE RELATED TO GAINING EXPOSURE
MEDIA
• ROLE OF CAMPAIGN ADS
• NEGATIVE ADVERTISING: THEY WORK!!!
DEBATES
• WHEN THEY MATTER
• GAFFES

14. PART 2D) THEORIES ON
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
OUTCOMES

15. BASIC TYPES OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
THEORIES
MACRO-THEORIES
• BASED GENERALLY ON THE NATION AS A WHOLE
• LIKELY TO VALUE THE POPULAR VOTE
MICRO-THEORIES
• BASED MORE ON REGIONAL & STATE DIFFERENCES,
• LIKELY TO VALUE THE ELECTORAL VOTE

16. MACRO-THEORIES #1
• “IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID”
• CANDIDATE PERSONALITY/POPULARITY
• MONEY TALKS
• NATIONAL SECURITY

17. MACRO-THEORIES #2
• WINNING THE CENTER
• BASE POLITICS & PRIMARY FIGHT ISSUE
• MAJOR ISSUES OF THE DAY
• QUALITY OF CAMPAIGN RUN

18. PROBLEM OF MACRO-THEORIES

19. MICRO-THEORIES #1
• GEOGRAPHIC DOMINANCE
• DEMOGRAPHICS
• COALITIONS & WEDGES
• REALIGNMENTS

20. MICRO-THEORIES #2
• CANDIDATE’S HOMETURF
• PARTISAN POLARIZATION
• WHITE WORKING CLASS & LEVEL OF UNIONIZATION
• # OF WINGS IN A PARTY THAT STRONGLY BACK THEIR
PRESIDENTIAL TICKET