Pavle Popovic fra ICIS leverer en 3. parts analyse af råvarepris-situationen.

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From historic highs to business as usual?
Isocyanates and polyols conditions in 2018
Pavle Popovic Rob Peacock
Markets Editor Global Isocyanates Consultant

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2017 in review
2018 to date
Upcoming developments in the markets
Looking into the long-term future
Agenda

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Introduction

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Anglo-Dutch public company in the FTSE-100, operating in
40 countries, with revenues close to £7bn in 2017
Legal and risk solutions
World’s leading events organiser
Scientific,
technical and
medical
Business analytics
ICIS and RELX

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ICIS locations around the world

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The process of price reporting
Buyers
Traders Producers

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ICIS isocyanates and polyols methodology
Contract assessments
Assessment based on producer, buyer and reseller feedback
Prices of small to average-size participants

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2017 in review

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MDI
Another year of production issues
Consequent historic MDI price highs
Planned maintenance in Q3/Q4 elongated tightness
Q3/Q4
turnarounds
Huntsman sales control, Covestro force
majeure
Covestro force
majeure,
Borsodchem
production issues
and Huntsman
restart difficulties

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MDI production difficulties 2017
COUNTRY COMPANY PLANT STATUS LOCATION CAPACITY
(TONNES/YEAR)
START DATE END DATE
NETHERLANDS HUNTSMAN TECHNICAL
DIFFICULTIES
ROZENBURG 400,000 END
APRIL/START
MAY
MAY
GERMANY COVESTRO FORCE
MAJEURE
BRUNSBUETTEL 200,000 APRIL MAY
HUNGARY BORSODCHEM PRODUCTION
ISSUES
KAZINCBARCIKA 260,000 APRIL
HUNGARY BORSODCHEM FORCE
MAJEURE
KAZINCBARCIKA 260,000 AUGUST AUGUST

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TDI
Tightness persistent throughout year
May restart for BASF Ludwigshafen, after shutdown in November 2016
BASF Ludwigshafen impurity issues in October 2017
Ludwigshafen restart
Ludwigshafen offline,
Covestro force majeure

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Polyols
Producers discussed margin concerns after upstream pressure
First half of 2017 saw continuous polyols price rises
TDI tightness limited polyols negotiations

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TDI trade
Asia and Pacific main importers 2016/17
Export levels relatively steady year on
year

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Polyols trade
Middle East exports increased year
on year
Northeast Asia main importer in
2017
Asia and Pacific imported most
volumes in 2016

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MDI trade
Middle East exports rose year
on year
Asia and Pacific biggest
importers in 2016/17

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2018 to date

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Crude MDI length
Crude MDI length due to seasonality,
return from turnarounds
Downward pressure on pricing
Huntsman reduced rates, Dow Stade
turnaround
Pictured: Building refurbishment, apparent installation of insulation windows with
polyurethane foam, out of date, and the bracing of the removed cladding
Source: Harmut Schmidt/Rex Features

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TDI tightness persists
TDI tight as Ludwigshafen shuts
down in January
Ludwigshafen scheduled to restart in
Q2
Upward pressure throughout Q1
Pictured: Site of BASF in Ludwigshafen am Rhein, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, Europe
Source: Caroline Kreutzer/Rex Features

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Polyols balanced
Polyols market balanced to
tight
Repsol planned maintenance
from January to March
Mixture of price directions over
first, second quarters
Pictured: Close-up detail of polyurethane foam packaging
Source: Simon Lees/Rex Features

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Upcoming developments in the markets

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Planned maintenance in 2018
COUNTRY COMPANY PRODUCT LOCATION CAPACITY
(TONNES/YEAR)
START DATE END DATE
GERMANY COVESTRO TDI DORMAGEN 300,000 UNKNOWN
JAPAN MITSUI
CHEMICALS &
SKC
POLYURETHAN
ES INC (MCNS)
TDI OMUTA 120,000 MAY JUNE
JAPAN TOSOH CORP MDI NANYO 200,000 APRIL JUNE
CHINA WANHUA
CHEMICAL
MDI YANTAI 600,000 JUNE JULY
HUNGARY BORSODCHEM TDI KAZINCBARCIKA 250,000 JULY AUGUST
HUNGARY BORSODCHEM MDI KAZINCBARCIKA 260,000 JULY SEPTEMBER

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Europe crude MDI

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Europe TDI

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Looking into the long-term future

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MDI supply and demand
MDI Production 2016

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MDI capacity additions
COUNTRY COMPANY LOCATION YEAR CAPACITY
(TONNES/YEAR)
HUNGARY BORSODCHEM KAZINCBARCIKA 2018/2019 +40,000 to 300,000
NETHERLANDS
HUNTSMAN
INTERNATIONAL ROZENBURG 2018 +70,000 to 470,000
CHINA
SHANGHAI LIANHENG
ISOCYANATES CAOJING 2018 240,000
CHINA COVESTRO SHANGHAI 2018/21 +100,000 to 600,000
GERMANY COVESTRO BRUNSBUETTEL 2019 220,000
UNITED STATES BASF CORP GEISMAR/LA 2019 +300,000
CHINA WANHUA CHEMICAL YANTAI 2022 500,000
CHINA WANHUA CHEMICAL NINGBO 2022 +300,000
CHINA
XINJIANG HESHAN
JULI CHEMICAL XINJIANG 2022? 400,000?
SPAIN COVESTRO TARRAGONA 2022/23 +50,000 to 220,000
UNITED STATES WANHUA CHEMICAL ? ? ?

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TDI supply and demand

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TDI capacity additions
COUNTRY COMPANY LOCATION YEAR CAPACITY
(TONNES/
YEAR)
CHINA WANHUA CHEMICAL YANTAI 2018 300,000
CHINA
XINJIANG HESHAN JULI
CHEMICAL XINJIANG 2019 150,000
CHINA
FUJIAN SOUTHEAST
ELECTROCHEMICAL FUQING 2020/2022 ? 200,000

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Polyether polyols supply and demand
Polyol Production 2016

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New polyether polyols capacity
COUNTRY COMPANY LOCATION YEAR CAPACITY
(TONNES/YEAR)
CHINA CNOOC AND SHELL PC HUIZHOU 2019 600,000
INDIA MANALI PC MANALI 2019 50,000
THAILAND
PTT GLOBAL
CHEMICAL RAYONG 2020 130,000
HUNGARY
MOL
PETROCHEMICALS TISZAUJVAROS 2021 150,000
CHINA
JUYUAN CHEMICAL
INDUSTRY JILIN 2021? 215,000?
CHINA NANJING HONGBAOLI NANJING 2021? 30,000?

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Contact us
Pavle Popovic
Global polyols consultant
Pavle.popovic@icis.com
Rob Peacock
Global isocyanates consultant
Rob.peacock@icis.com
Rhian O’Connor
European isocyanates and polyols market
reporter
Rhian.oconnor@icis.com