A high-level helicopter view of the current ‘state of the market’ from across the Cox Automotive UK business - identifying industry trends and key messages.
5. Retail
April illustrates continued appetite for Petrol and AFV whilst overall volumes exceed 2017
45%
36%
44%
35%
43%
32%
45%
31%
51%
59%
52%
61%
53%
63%
51%
64%
4% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 6%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan 17 Jan 18 Feb 17 Feb 18 Mar 17 Mar 18 Apr 17 Apr 18
Registrationvolume
New Registrations - fuel type
Diesel Petrol AFV Registrations 2017 Registrations 2018
6. Retail
Average sold price was up 2.97% on 2017 figures, standing at £12,903, despite vehicles selling at a slower pace
April ‘16
£11,832
April ‘17
£12,531
April ‘18
£12,903
£9,000
£10,000
£11,000
£12,000
£13,000
£14,000
£15,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Averageadvertisedprice
Retail Used Car Price Performance
(as listed on Motors.co.uk)
2016 2017 2018
7. Retail
Days in stock increased across all sectors, by an overall average of 4-days in April ‘18 compared to ‘17
35 36
43
41
37 38
29
33
37
41
34 34
39 38
50
42
39
41
34
37
40
44
38 37
0
10
20
30
40
50
Overall 4x4 Convertible Coupe Estate Large Lower
Medium
Medium MPV Prestige Small Supermini
Retail days in stock April ‘17 vs. ‘18
(as listed on Motors.co.uk)
Apr-17 Apr-18
8. Retail
Diesel sales steady YoY thanks to 5% fall in overall volume vs 2017; hybrids struggling to sell compared to 2017 performance
Vehicle Views
APR ‘18– 50.55% of total
APR ‘17– 52.30% of total
Stock Volume
APR ‘18 – 50.49% of total
APR ‘17– 55.84% of total
Days in stock
APR ‘18– 41 days
APR ‘17– 39 days
Diesel Petrol Hybrid ElectricHybrid
Stock Volume
APR ‘18 – 46.78% of total
APR ‘17– 42.61% of total
Stock Volume
APR ’18 – 1.12% of total
APR ‘17– 1.13% of total
Stock Volume
APR ‘18– 0.22% of total
APR ‘17– 0.29% of total
Vehicle Views
APR ‘18– 1.05% of total
APR ‘17– 1.21% of total
Vehicle Views
APR ‘18– 47% of total
APR ‘17– 46% of total
Vehicle Views
APR ‘18– 0.33% of total
APR ‘17– 0.41% of total
Days in stock
APR ‘18– 37 days
APR ‘17– 33 days
Days in stock
APR ‘18– 44 days
APR ‘17– 31 days
Days in stock
APR ‘18– 41 days
APR ‘17– 47 days
9. Retail
The data – Summary
Retail• Diesel sales remain stable thanks to a 5% fall in overall volume year-on-year
compared to petrol vehicles
• Average used retail price continues to rise steadily, in line with the rest of 2018
and year-on-year
• Petrol and hybrid vehicles selling slower than in 2017; diesel sales only
marginally by comparison
• Electric vehicles demonstrate a significant fall in days in stock compared to
other fuel types (41 days in 2018 compared to 48 days in 2017)
• Smaller, more affordable, vehicle types such as lower medium and small cars
continue to outsell larger prestige models
10.
11. Wholesale
Average auction wholesale prices increase 19.32% in April YoY and out of seasonality increases 1.5% since March
Apr ‘16
£5,264
Apr ‘17
£5,553
Apr ‘18
£6,626
£4,500
£5,000
£5,500
£6,000
£6,500
£7,000
£7,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Averagewholesaleprice
Auction Wholesale Price
2016 2017 2018
12. Wholesale
Diesel prices through the wholesale market remain stable with slight increases in the £30 - £40k banding
£-
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
£35,000
£40,000
£45,000
£50,000
£0k to £5k £5k to £10K £10k to £20K £20k to £30K £30k to £40K £40k to £50K
Diesel Wholesale Used Prices April ’17 vs. ‘18
2016 2017 2018
13. Wholesale
Petrol wholesale prices in wholesale remain stable with minor increases in the £0 - £20K and softening in the £20K+
£-
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
£35,000
£40,000
£0k to £5k £5k to £10K £10k to £20K £20k to £30K £30k to £40K
Petrol Wholesale Used Prices April ’17 vs. ‘18
2016 2017 2018
14. Wholesale
Wholesale
The data – Summary
• Volumes of vehicles sold through physical and online lanes were on par with
the previous month with vehicle condition and mileage also remained steady
• Ex-fleet and part exchange vehicles up 1% month-on-month to £6,623 (18.6%
higher than this time last year)
• Diesel volumes increased 7% on 2017 and electric vehicles also continued to
increase, up 18% year on year
• 20% year on year increase in volumes and a 12% uplift in average sales price
through Dealer Auction, the trade-to-trade online auction platform, proving
that the adoption of digital bidding is gaining pace
15.
16. Funding
Wholesale stock funding remains in line with seasonal expectations with a 1% increase in average cost per unit
Apr ‘16
£7,324
Apr ‘17
£6,974
Apr ‘18
£7,120
£6,000
£6,500
£7,000
£7,500
£8,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Averagecostofunit
Average Cost of Unit (£)
2016 Ave. Cost of Unit 2017 Ave. Cost of Unit 2018 Ave. Cost of Unit
17. Funding
Average holding days also increased to 55.5 from 54.9 in March – returning to the figures experienced throughout 2017
Apr ‘17
56.4
Apr ‘18
55.5
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Averageholdingdays
Average Holding Days
2017 2018
18. Stock
funding
Funding
In April ‘18 the average age funded, and mileage remains in line with ‘17 April figures
Apr 2017
6.3 years
Ave. Age Funded
59,710
Ave. Mileage
Apr 2018
6.5 years
Ave. Age Funded
59,987
Ave. Mileage
19.
20. Dealers
41% of dealers surveyed reported margin pressures. In addition, half indicated stock availability had worsened*
37%
56%
26%
35%
26%
16%
33%
16%
41%
19%
46%
51%
30%
28%
33%
46%
28%
33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Physical Footfall activity compared to last year?
On-line activity compared to last year?
Retained margins compared to last year?
Finance penetration compared to last year?
Retail/consumer demand compared to last year?
Stock availability compared to last year?
Increased/Better Decreased/Worse About the same
*State of the market dealer survey April ‘18
21. Dealers
Drop in used car stock availability has resulted in a positive impact on overage reduction’ *
40%
24%
14%
19%
47%
28%
38%
57%
13%
48%
48%
24%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
New Cars - Consignment stock
New Cars - Overage
Used Cars - Days in stock
Used Cars - Overage
Increased Decreased About the same*State of the market dealer survey April ‘18
22. Dealers
The economic outlook remains similar with only 9% anticipating improvement and 30% expecting further decline*
9%
30%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Improving Declining About the same
%respondents
What are your expectations for economic conditions over the coming months?
(as a proxy for demand)
Improving Declining About the same*State of the market dealer survey April ‘18
23. Dealers
A quarter of dealers expect sourcing stock to worsen whereas 18% anticipate improvement over the coming months*
18%
25%
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Improving Declining About the same
%respondents
What are your expectations for sourcing used vehicles over the coming months?
(as a proxy for supply)
Improving Declining About the same*State of the market dealer survey April ‘18
24. 28%
29%
18%
Dealers
Modix data illustrates that car buyers are looking closer to home for their next car than dealers may perceive
12%
35%
7%
5%
5%
Car Dealer Perception
(survey*)
We asked dealers:
“On average, how far do you think customers will travel when searching for your stock?”
Results show a difference between perception and reality
Up to 20 miles
Up to 50 miles
Up to 100 miles
Up to 200 miles
Over 200 miles
*State of the market dealer survey April ‘18
(data)
21%
30%
25.
26. Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2018 the retail market
Strong appetite for vehicle
insight from dealers, to
support both buying and
selling
Used cars sales to
improve as consumers
are confused over
updated tax rules for new
vehicles
Retail
Dealers urged to adjust
stock volumes to match
consumer demand for
smaller used cars
27. Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2018 the wholesale market
An increase in the diversity
of stock acquisition through
physical and digital channels
An increasing desire for
enhanced imagery and
'ready for retail’
inventory
Scale operations will drive
demand for refurb and
retail-ready through
efficiency and logistics
costs
Wholesale
28. Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2018 the funding market
Cash flow and digital
integration remain
priority for dealers in
the year ahead
Ease and flexibility
remains key for
dealers
Dealers are looking for
complementary sources
to ensure they have
sufficient liquidity to buy
the stock they need
Funding
29. Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2018 the Dealers market
Further dealership
consolidation in line with
the long term trend of
declining franchised
dealer numbers
Dealers
Improving the digital retailing
experience and enabling
consumers to do more online
to provide a competitive
edge is increasingly
important
Challenging
environment of evolving
technology and ever
changing consumer
expectations