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Cox Automotive Market Overview - Q1 2018

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A high-level helicopter view of the current ‘state of the market’ from across the Cox Automotive UK business - identifying industry trends and key messages.

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Cox Automotive Market Overview - Q1 2018

  1. 1. Market Overview Q1 2018 Philip Nothard - Head of External Relations
  2. 2. T H E V E H I C L E L I F E C Y C L E Who we are Cox Automotive
  3. 3. AGENDA • Retail • Wholesale • Funding • Dealers • Outlook
  4. 4. Retail Q1 finished fourth highest in a decade whilst diesel share continues to decline 45% 36% 44% 35% 43% 32% 45% 44% 43% 43% 40% 40% 39% 38% 38% 51% 59% 52% 61% 53% 63% 51% 52% 53% 52% 55% 55% 55% 57% 57% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan 17 Jan 18 Feb 17 Feb 18 Mar 17 Mar 18 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17Sept 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 RegistrationVolume(k) FuelShare(%) New Registrations - fuel type Diesel Petrol AFV Registrations 2017 Registrations 2018
  5. 5. Retail Average advertised prices increase of 4.3% YoY in Q1 and return to January ‘18 performance March ‘16 £11,832 March ‘17 £12,476 March ‘18 £13,018 £8,000 £9,000 £10,000 £11,000 £12,000 £13,000 £14,000 £15,000 £16,000 £17,000Averageadvertisedprice Retail Used Car Price Performance (as listed on Motors.co.uk) 2016 2017 2018
  6. 6. Retail Petrol volumes ease -6.3% YoY in Q1 whereas diesel reduces by -3.1% 88216 72172 8100782800 72629 78376 January February March Diesel 2017 2018 87386 73188 82747 77490 71593 78808 January February March Petrol 2017 2018 Retail Used Volumes (as listed on Motors.co.uk)
  7. 7. Retail Hybrid volumes increase +33.7% in Q1 YoY, in contrast, EV declines by -14.1%, although volumes remain low 1726 1676 19752055 2343 2790 January February March Hybrid 2017 2018 367 332 411 356 314 283 January February March EV 2017 2018 Retail Used Volumes (as listed on Motors.co.uk)
  8. 8. Retail 2017 - average days in stock reduced in Q1 in line with expectations as demand improves into spring 45 58 54 48 49 44 46 48 51 47 49 43 57 55 45 47 40 45 45 47 44 45 37 49 43 38 40 31 36 38 42 37 36 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 4x4 Convertible Coupe Estate Large Lower Medium Medium MPV Prestige Small Supermini Retail days in stock Q1 ‘17 (as listed on Motors.co.uk) January February March
  9. 9. Retail 2018 - days in stock reduced overall in Q1, with the lowest level of improvement in prestige 49 60 50 51 55 48 49 51 52 49 49 44 57 50 47 49 39 42 47 50 42 43 41 52 44 43 44 36 39 43 48 38 39 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 4x4 Convertible Coupe Estate Large Lower Medium Medium MPV Prestige Small Supermini Retail days in stock Q1 ‘18 (as listed on Motors.co.uk) January February March
  10. 10. Retail YoY the average days in stock increased by two days in Q1 with exception of Coupe reducing by -6% 43 42 55 51 44 46 39 42 44 47 43 4445 45 56 48 47 49 41 43 47 50 43 44 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Retail days in stock Q1 ‘17 vs. ‘18 (as listed on Motors.co.uk) 2017 2018
  11. 11. Retail Q1 stock volumes remain stable, albeit with increased days in stock for Diesel and Hybrid vehicles Vehicle Views Q1 ‘18– 50% of total Q1 ‘17– 51% of total Stock Volume Q1 ‘18 - 54% of total Q1 ‘17– 56% of total Days in stock Q1 ‘18– 47 days Q1 ‘17– 45 days Diesel Petrol Hybrid ElectricHybrid Stock Volume Q1 ‘18 – 45% of total Q1 ‘17– 43% of total Stock Volume Q1 ’18 – 1.04% of total Q1 ‘17– 1.02% of total Stock Volume Q1 ‘18– 0.22% of total Q1 ‘17– 0.28% of total Vehicle Views Q1 ‘18– 1.10% of total Q1 ‘17– 0.99% of total Vehicle Views Q1 ‘18– 48% of total Q1 ‘17– 47% of total Vehicle Views Q1 ‘18– 0.36% of total Q1 ‘17– 0.45% of total Days in stock Q1 ‘18– 43 days Q1 ‘17– 43 days Days in stock Q1 ‘18– 45 days Q1 ‘17– 41 days Days in stock Q1 ‘18– 41 days Q1 ‘17– 52 days
  12. 12. Retail The data – Summary Retail• Overall, stock volumes are similar YoY, but it has taken slightly longer to sell vehicles in Q1 2018 compared to 2017 except for Small and Supermini, which remained the same • The adverse weather conditions experienced March ‘18 could be a factor in the YoY stock variances • Franchise dealers and supermarkets have been hit hardest, despite the slight dip in stock compared to the previous year • Supermarkets have more stock YoY, with franchises and independents’ stock remaining consistent • Days in stock is up for all models but overall the market remains stable • Smaller, lower value, vehicles have taken less time to sell than larger, more prestige ones YoY and month-on-month throughout Q1 2018 *all plates and mileages
  13. 13. Wholesale Average auction wholesales prices increase 9.4% in March YoY whilst Q1 follows seasonal expectation March ’16 £5,544 March ’17 £5,911 March ’18 £6,529 £4,000 £4,500 £5,000 £5,500 £6,000 £6,500 £7,000 £7,500 £8,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Averagewholesaleprice Auction Wholesale Price 2016 2017 2018
  14. 14. Wholesale January ‘18 highest diesel % share at 35% and volume in 3-years whilst February and March ‘18 volumes ease 32% 34% 34% 33% 32% 35% 35% 33% 32% January February March DieselVolumes Wholesale Used Volumes – Diesel 2016 2017 2018 *% denotes share of total quarter volume for the fuel type
  15. 15. Wholesale Petrol % share remains stable throughout Q1 and ahead of ‘17 in both January & February as volumes ease 31% 32% 37% 31% 31% 38% 33% 32% 35% January February March PetrolVolumes Wholesale Used Volumes – Petrol 2016 2017 2018 *% denotes share of total quarter volume for the fuel type
  16. 16. Wholesale Top 3 remain constant with the Qashqai substituting the BMW 3 Series in 4th best-seller in Q1 2018 Wholesale best sellers Top 10 Q1 2017 Top 10 Q1 2018
  17. 17. Wholesale Wholesale The data – Summary • The market continues to remain strong, especially on the 3-year-old product up to 60k miles and ready to retail stock • Conversion ratios have remained very strong throughout the quarter • Higher mileage and sub-standard vehicles are increasingly tougher to find buyers • Late plate and low mileage product entering the market in higher volumes and are in good demand currently • Scrappage schemes continue to starve to starve the wholesale market of cheaper, higher mileage vehicles • Positive growth for part exchange volumes, with double-digit growth in March ‘18 at 17.5%* compared to February ‘18 *all plates and mileages
  18. 18. Funding Average cost per unit hits £7,042 in 2018, ahead of 2017 by 4.2% in Q1 with an older profile of vehicles March ‘17 £6,816 March ‘18 £7,042 £6,400 £6,500 £6,600 £6,700 £6,800 £6,900 £7,000 £7,100 £7,200 £7,300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Averagecostofunit Average Cost of Unit (£) 2017 Ave. Cost of Unit 2018 Ave. Cost of Unit
  19. 19. Funding Average holding days -2.9 in March ‘18 as overall Q1 average increase by 2.8 days was driven by January performance March ‘17 57.8 March ‘18 54.9 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Averageholdingdays Average Holding Days 2017 2018
  20. 20. Stock funding Funding The average age of vehicles funded increases YOY whilst both mileage and cost per unit increase YTD 2017 6.7 years Ave. Age Funded 61,417 Ave. Mileage YTD 2018 7.3 years Ave. Age Funded 61,861 Ave. Mileage
  21. 21. Dealers Overall a challenging quarter, as 69% of dealers surveyed reported a YoY decline in margin retention and stock availability in Q1 19% 70% 14% 24% 27% 14% 60% 12% 69% 40% 59% 69% 21% 18% 17% 36% 14% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q1 Physical Footfall activity compared to last year? Q1 On-line activity compared to last year? Q1 retained margins compared to last year? Q1 finance penetration compared to last year? Q1 retail/consumer demand compared to last year? Q1 stock availability compared to last year? Increased/Better Decreased/Worse About the same
  22. 22. Dealers 73% of dealers surveyed reported a decrease in overage used cars, and a quarter indicated an increase in new car consignment stock 25% 28% 12% 6% 67% 59% 68% 73% 8% 13% 20% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% New Cars - Consignment stock New Cars - Overage Used Cars - Days in stock Used Cars - Overage Increased Decreased About the same
  23. 23. Dealers 56% of dealers report optimism about the economic conditions as Q1 of 2018 closes in contrast to daily pressures 22% 45% 33% 22% 45% 33% 56% 20% 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Improving Declining About the same %respondents What are your expectations for economic conditions over the coming months (as a proxy for demand)? Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18
  24. 24. Dealers Expectations of pressure on sourcing stock over the coming months increased throughout Q1 23% 43% 34% 18% 45% 37% 16% 50% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Improving Declining About the same %respondents What are your expectations for sourcing used vehicles over the coming months (as a proxy for supply)? Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18
  25. 25. Dealers Pre-registrations and Scrappage triggering pressures in Q1 for dealers NO 14% YES 86% Target pressures and lead times causing higher levels of pre-registrations NO 40% YES 60% Scrappage causing a shortage of sub 2K trade cars
  26. 26. Outlook Our viewpoint – 2018 the retail market Strong appetite for vehicle insight from dealers, to support both buying and selling Used cars sales to improve with consumers confused over updated tax rules for new vehicles Retail Dealers urged to adjust stock volumes to match consumer demand for smaller used cars
  27. 27. Outlook Our viewpoint – 2018 the wholesale market An increase in the diversity of stock acquisition through physical and digital channels An increasing desire for enhanced imagery and 'ready for retail’ inventory Scale operations will drive demand for refurb and retail-ready through efficiency and logistics costs Wholesale
  28. 28. Outlook Our viewpoint – 2018 the funding market Cash flow and digital integration remain priority for dealers in the year ahead Ease and flexibility remains key for dealers Dealers are looking for complementary sources to ensure they have sufficient liquidity to buy the stock they need Funding
  29. 29. Outlook Our viewpoint – 2018 the Dealers market Further dealership consolidation in line with the long term trend of declining franchised dealer numbers Challenging new car market whilst uncertainty remains Improved analytical understanding of an ever diverse sector, to help find and price stock better Dealers
  30. 30. THANK YOU

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