3.
-1.0% Vol. 2018
FMBs & Local Craft
Driving Category
+0.2% Vol. 2018
Rosé, Sparkling, &
Direct to Consumer
Driving Growth
+1.5% Vol. 2018
Tequila, American &
Irish Whiskey
Driving Growth
Spirits are directly eating into Beer’s share of alcohol consumption, while Wine’s share remains
relatively flat
Beverage Alcohol Category Overviews - 2018
4.
49.0%
16.5%
34.5%
2018
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Spirits are directly eating into Beer’s share of alcohol consumption, while Wine’s share remains
relatively flat
135.5 Billion Servings*
+6.8 Billion Servings vs. 2011
*12 oz. beer, 5 oz. wine, 1.5 oz. spirits
Source: BMC Strategic Associates, IWSR, Beer Institute
Beverage Alcohol Categories – Share by Servings
-3.6 pts
vs. 2011
+0.5 pts
vs. 2011
+3.1 pts
vs. 2011
• Domestic lager contraction continues, while High-End
grows and Sub-Premium flattens
• Health & Wellness linked branding driving category
performance
• Craft maintaining ~5% annual growth, with revolving
lineup of leading players
• Growing varietals include: Sparkling (Prosecco), Rose, etc.
• Expansion of packaging options, especially single serve,
fueling the recruitment across more occasions
• Spirits growth outpaces Wine and beer for 8th consecutive
year led by Tequila & Whiskey
• Small categories incl. Mezcal & Cognac seeing largest
growth
• Craft gaining traction beyond novelty. Over 1,800 craft
distilleries in US.
6.
-6-
All data in this portion of the presentation can be found in the following reports:
• BMC U.S. Spirits Guide 2019 – April 2019 Publication
• BMC U.S. Wine Guide 2019 – May 2019 Publication
• BMC U.S. Beer Guide 2019–July 2019 Publication
• On Premise Intelligence Report –October 2019 Publication
9.
-9-
Adult beverage consumer attitudes
Bars and full-service restaurants are top locations for adult beverage occasions
• Slowed consumer traffic at on-premise locations and stagnancy in occasions involving adult beverages translated to a
preliminary 0.3% increase in total alcohol volume in restaurants and bars in 2018.
Major On-Premise Segments Struggle
• While there's declines across the casual chain segment, smaller independent full service restaurants have
momentum. There is also the threat from e-commerce which is aiding at home consumption
Aged non-whiskey spirits appeal
• Tracking with the relevance of whiskey, other spirits aged in barrels like Tequila are finding relevance with today’s
consumers in restaurants and bars. .
Vodka On Premise Struggles
• While still the largest-volume spirit on-premise, vodka is challenged by growing consumer affinity for more flavorful
spirits such as whiskey. Two segments that had been growth drivers for the category—imported and flavored—
continue to decline.
Key Insights
Source: Beverage Marketing Corp., Technomic Inc.
12.
-12-
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Spirits Category Volume by Type
2011– 2018
VolumeinThousandsofCases
Non-Whiskey
+1.7%
Whiskey
+2.6%
2011-2018 CAGR
Since 2013 growth of Whiskey has either equaled or surpassed that of Non-Whiskey, a
trend not seen in decades
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
13.
-13-
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Whiskey Category Volume by Type
2011- 2018
VolumeinThousandsofCases
Straight American
Whiskey
+6.1%
Canadian Whisky -
0.8%
Scotch Whisky
-0.1%
Blended American
-2.1%
Irish Whiskey
+14.6%
2011-2018 CAGR
While Whiskey is helping drive the overall industry, within it Straight American
Whiskey and Irish Whiskey are the drivers
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
14.
-14-
Number of Craft Spirits vs. Beer Producers
Comparative Time Periods
*Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier.
Source: TTB, ACSA
204 280
455
656
906 1,163
1,315
1,589
1,835
4,506
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Craft Spirits
199 247 284 312 359
446
601
858
1,149
1,545
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Craft Beer
• Craft spirits suppliers are growing at a faster rate than craft breweries at comparative time
periods
• If craft spirits grows at a similar rate 5 years out as craft breweries then the number of
suppliers would exceed 4,500 by 2023.
+31.6% CAGR +24.5% CAGR
15.
-15-
Craft Spirits Share of
Overall Distilled Spirits Industry
*Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier.
Source: TTB, ACSA
0.8%
1.0% 1.2%
1.5%
1.8%
2.3%
2.6% 2.7%
3.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P
Craft Share*
Craft Share
16.
-16-
Craft Spirits Retail Sales by Value
*Craft is defined as a producer that have no more than 750K proof gallons removed from bond and not openly controlled by a larger supplier.
Source: TTB, ACSA
$0.7 $0.8 $1.0
$1.3
$1.8
$2.4
$3.0
$3.7
$4.5
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P
Billions of Dollars*
Craft Sales
17.
-17-
With the growth of craft spirits over the last few years can we draw a comparison to craft beer and its long
term sustainability
• Since the Millennial generation is always seeking innovative flavorful products with a true brand story, craft spirits inherent
characteristics play right into that trend.
• Consumers are embracing smaller, craft and locally produced. Authenticity is the key word, messaging conveying authentic brand
story
Craft Beer vs. Craft Spirits
2018
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation, Brewers Association; DISCUS; ASCA
• Approximately 7,000 breweries , up over 2,400
from 2015
• 14% share of total beer
• +4% production increase, down from low 20’s in
2015
• Culture that has embraced locally brewed craft
beers has enticed more entrants into the
marketplace, as evidenced by the strong growth of
microbreweries ,brewpubs and on site brewery
tasting rooms
• 1,835 craft distilleries (+246 or 15.5% from ’17)
• Estimated at 3.1% of spirits
• About $300,000 to build facility
• Concentrated market with 2% of producers responsible for
60% of the case volume
• Wholesale channel could pose a barrier to growth
• Some of the early successful distilleries have been acquired
by larger producers , as mentioned earlier this is unlike the
early days of craft beer segment
Craft Beer Craft Spirits
Spirits Market Brief
18.
-18-
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
On Premise Spirits Category Volume by Type
2011– 2018P
VolumeinThousandsofCases
Non-Whiskey
+0.3%
Whiskey
+0.9%
2011-2018P CAGR
Since 2011 growth of Whiskey in the On Premise is outpacing both non-whiskey and
the overall spirits market
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
22.
11.3%
13.6% 14.6%
19.1% 18.3% 17.8%
15.3%
17.7%
18.6%
27.1%
33.9% 33.3%
27.2%
16.5% 15.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011 2015 2018p
Super-Premium ($15.00 and above) Premium ($12.00-$14.99) Popular Premium ($9.00-$11.99)
Fighting Varietal ($6.00-$8.99) Value ($5.99 and below)
Table Wine Volume Sales by Price Tier
2011, 2015 & 2018p
Sweet spot for Millennial consumers
23.
23.7%
22.4%
11.9%
13.6%
11.1%
8.9%
4.6%
7.7%
6.0%
7.4%
9.8%
5.8%5.1% 5.7%
1.4%
4.6%
26.4%
23.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2010 2018p
Chardonnay Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Pinot Grigio Pinot Noir White Zinfandel Blush/Rose' Red Blend Other
Table Wine Volume Sales by Varietal
2010 and 2018p
• Despite a lower share of Table Wine volume, Chardonnay has experienced an uptick in volume over the last
three years. It has ceded its share to faster growing varietals
• Red Blends share of Table Wine has increased to 4.7% in 2017 from 1.4% in 2010.
24.
24%
25%
13%
17%
14%
19%
17%
16%
13%
16%
12%
12%
12%
9%
8%
19%
11%
20%
17%
13%
11%
12%
13%
12%
10%
11%
10%
6%
7%
3%
Rose
Merlot
Moscato
White zinfandel
Chardonnay
Cabernet sauvignon
Champagne/sparkling wine
Sangria
Red blend
White blend
Pinot grigio/gris
Pinot noir
Red zinfandel
Sauvignon blanc
Syrah/shiraz
Male Female
• Merlot, chardonnay
and Moscato lead
the category in
share of wine
varietals selected
for the most recent
away-from-home
occasion.
Type of Wine
Consumed
Base: 391 (respondents who ordered wine or wine cocktails); 156 (Male), 235 (Female)
Q: Which of the following types of wine did you drink? Which one was in the wine cocktail?
Select all that apply.
NA 21%
19% 17%
18% 17%
14% 17%
18% 14%
16% 14%
11% 14%
9% 14%
14% 13%
6% 13%
11% 12%
15% 11%
10% 8%
7% 8%
6% 5%
Overall %
2017 2018
26.
Current U.S. Beer Trends
The U.S. beer market continues to evolve as consumers’ tastes shift and evolve
Flagship Declines Accelerate
-6.7% -6.2% -3.8% -6.4%
Craft Market Growing Pains
Nationals Down Regionals Up Up & Comers
Accelerating Fragmentation
• Major players expanding portfolio to
include wine, spirits, etc.
• Local trend continues to drive
experimentation
Bifurcation of Market
High-End: +5% Sub-Premium: 0% Mainstream: -6%
Source: IRI, Beer Marketer’s Insights, BMC Strategic Associates
Hyper Locals
Blind to Outside Threat
• Focus on competition within category over greater threat from Wine, Spirits, and (potentially) Cannabis
27.
Total beer is estimated to have declined 1.1% in depletion volume and 1.0% in shipments in 2018
U.S. Beer Market Volume Growth
FY 1990 – 2018
%Change
Note: Depletions total beer includes hard cider and non-alcoholic beer; shipments does not include domestic non-alcoholic beer
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
ShipmentsDepletions
2.7%
-2.3%
0.7% -0.2%
2.9%
2.3%
-0.1%
-1.9%
-0.9% -1.3%
1.2%
-0.9%
0.4%
0.3%
-0.5%
-1.3% -1.1%
0.7%
-0.3%
1.1%
-0.3%
2.2%
1.6%
0.2%
-2.1%
-0.5%
-1.3%
1.2%
-1.2%
0.6%
-0.2%
0.3%
-1.2% -1.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
28.
Sub-
Premium,
32.2%
Mainstream,
39.1%
High-End,
28.7%
Sub-Premium
, 25.8%
Mainstream,
37.3%
High-End,
36.8%
Beer Market IRI MULO Volume Share by Price Segment
2014 vs. 2018
Note: High-End segment includes Import Brands, Malt-based ABAs, Hard Cider, and Craft
In 2018, the High-End continued to gain share, increasing 8.1 pts since 2014; meanwhile the Sub-
Premium reversed trends, leading to squeeze on Mainstream from both sides
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
20182014
29.
Since 2012, the top 4 brewers in the US have lost a combined 7.1 share points in aggregate; this
would be worse without Constellation’s 4.5 point share gain
Top 4 Brewer’s U.S. Share Change Shipments 2012 – 2018 (E)
%Share
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation, Beer Marketer’s Insights, Beer Institute
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E
85.5% 85.2% 84.0% 83.0% 81.6% 79.1% 78.4%
Down 6.8%
Down 4.7%
Up 4.5%
Down 0.2%
Down 7.1%
Share vs. ‘12
STZ Share
of U.S. Market
HUSA Share
of U.S. Market
MC Share
of U.S. Market
ABI Share
of U.S. Market
30.
The major players in the beer landscape have accelerated their NPD activity, seeking to exploit
whitespace as the market continues to fragment
31.
Group 1:
Veterans Down
Group Archetypes
• Long Established brands,
previously driven growth
• National Distribution
• Struggling to capture
interest
• Chasing style trends
Group Archetypes
• 1.75M+ case volume
• Restrained distribution
• Remain revered for quality
and NPD
• Strong local & digital
engagement
Group Archetypes
• $1M+ through measured
channels, yet <1.75M vol.
• Distribution less than 20
states
• Balance between scale,
quality, & engagement
Group Archetypes
• Majority of distribution at
taprooms or e-commerce
• Driving innovation while
revered for quality
• Engages consumer at
unheard of rate
The craft category has maintained single digit growth despite double digit losses by leading players,
due to the strength of the category’s long tail
Current U.S. Craft Beer Landscape
Group 2:
Veterans Up
Group 3:
Up & Comers
Group 4:
Hyper Locals
32.
Health and Wellness /
Functionality
E-commerce for beverage alcohol has been relegated to platforms such as Drizly, however craft
brewers are now bringing their 3-tier disruptive business models to the internet
Craft Beer E-Commerce
Model 1:
Traditional Shipping
Model 2:
Last Mile Fulfillment
Model 3:
3rd Party Platform
Breweries engage with partners to
act as their
e-commerce distributor.
Pros:
• Widest availability to reach
consumers
Cons:
• Operating in gray area
• Cannot ship to many key
markets
• Platforms act as distributors not
fulfillment partners
Examples:
Tavour, Bruisin’ Ales
Breweries engage a local
last-mile delivery service to fulfill
web orders
Pros:
• Full customization of customer
experience
• Additional oversight of delivery
process
Cons:
• Potential direct competition with
existing distributor(s)
Examples:
Beer Here (Mikkeller NYC),
Dudley Direct (Tired Hands),
Breweries engage established e-
commerce delivery courier service
platform
Pros:
• Platforms have established user
base for other products
• Additional oversight of delivery
process
Cons:
• Operating footprint limited to
courier range from brewery
Examples:
Threes Brewing (Caviar)
Ballast Point (Postmates)
33.
Craft Beer Packaging Trends
Craft packaging is seeing big swings in share as more brewers adopt cans for their primary package
Source: Brewer’s Association, Beverage Marketing Corporation
Cans
19.2-oz Cans
15-Pack Suitcases
16-oz 4-Packs
Bottles
Large Format
“Bombers”
Variety Packs
“Mix Six Packs”
34.
Thank You
• Strategic Associates
• Research
• Advisors
ngreene@beveragemarketing.com
eschmidt@beveragemarketing.com
Beverage Marketing Corporation
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