Change management and quality improvement depend on many factors; this presentation covers Kepner-Tregoe, Cynefin and the complexity factor impacting the difficulties in getting people to change their ways
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Quantum Butterflies live in Wales
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Quantum Butterflies Live in Wales
Peter Leeson
Quality Manager
Twitter @PeterLeeson
PLeeson@WhiteClarkeGroup.com
Not Whales the animal,
Wales the country!
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• Quality
–Why it matters
–What it is
–Benefits of investing in
quality
My Two Topics
• Change
–Tips and Tricks
–Changing an organization
–Changing the culture
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1. Recognize that what we expect is not happening the
way we expect
2. Publish new policies and procedures
3. Collect a few measurements
4. Tell people about the policies, procedures and
measurements
5. Audit
6. Go to 1 and start again
Basics of Change Management
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• Create an environment that encourages behaviour
• Automatic cognitive processes are triggered to favour the
desired outcome
• Encourage “tribe mentality”
• Point in the right direction
• Publish small successes
• Drop small hints
• Get frustrated
• Try again
“Nudge”
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The Butterfly Effect
Once upon a time, I, Chuang Chou, dreamt I was a butterfly, fluttering hither and thither, to
all intents and purposes a butterfly. I was conscious only of my happiness as a butterfly,
unaware that I was Chou. Soon I awaked, and there I was, veritably myself again. Now I
do not know whether I was then a man dreaming I was a butterfly, or whether I am now a
butterfly, dreaming I am a man. Between a man and a butterfly there is necessarily a
distinction. The transition is called the transformation of material things.
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Principles of Quantum Mechanics Principles of Change Management
Heisenberg: You can measure an electron’s exact position – or
you can measure the wave’s momentum or speed but you
cannot measure both at the same time
You can define where you want to be or how to get there, but
you cannot define both at the same time
A quantum object cannot be said to manifest in ordinary
space-time reality until we observe it as a particle (collapse of
the wave)
A change cannot be said to manifest in ordinary work
practices until we observe it in isolation (collapse of the SDLC)
All energy is transmitted in wave packets or quanta All energy is transmitted in consultants’ fees
Unobserved quantum phenomena are radically different from
observed ones
Theoretical 5-step improvement programmes and models are
radically different from real life
The observation (or measurement) makes the quantum wave
function collapse
The audit (or measurement) makes the improvements
collapse
At sufficient high levels of attention energy, particles emerge
from waves
At sufficient high levels of attention and investment,
improvements emerge from the activities
The way we observe the quantum field decide what we see,
thus your belief systems determine the reality you experience
The way we observe the changes decide what we see, thus
your management’s observation of the results determines
your yearly bonus
Quantum Change Mechanics
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• An atom is a positive charge (nucleus) surrounded by
a cloud of negativity (electrons)
• The change manager …
The Building Block
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• Quantum Physics works
• The building blocks of
physical reality are things
that cannot be
considered as physical
• Energy is everything
• Change and improvement
has to happen
And yet…
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“Energy is everything and that’s
all there is to it. Match the
frequency of the reality you
want and you cannot help but
get that reality. It can be no
other way. This is not
philosophy. This is physics.”
An Einstein quote is always good
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• If you want to change and to improve, be prepared to
invest large amounts of energy
• Consider very carefully where you need to invest that
energy
If You Want to Continue
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Kepner-Tregoe:
Structure Decision Making Process
Making Structured Decisions
developed by Charles Kepner and Benjamin Tregoe
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Kepner Tregoe
• A structured
methodology for
gathering information
and prioritizing and
evaluating it
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• Cause and Effect?
–deviation due to a change
–sub-par from day 1
• Why?
–a decision requires an answer to the questions "how",
"which", "to what purpose"
Kepner-Tregoe Situation Appraisal
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• State the Problem
– What, where, when, extent…
• Identify Possible Causes
– Develop possible causes from knowledge and experience
• Evaluate Possible Causes
– Test possible causes against specifications
• Confirm True Cause
– Determine the most probable cause
• Think Beyond the Fix
– Observe, experiment, fix, monitor
Kepner-Tregoe Problem Analysis
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• State Decision
– Includes not only the desired result but also the action required
• Clarify Purpose
– Develop Objectives: Must vs Want
– Place a Weight on the “Wants” Evaluate Alternatives
• Generate as many potential courses of action as possible whether immediately
feasible or not
– All “Musts” are met
– “Wants” are calculated (satisfaction * weight)
– Consider each alternative against all of the negative effects
• Analyse the weighted score versus the adversity rating for each and choose
the high-scoring one
• Make Decision
– Consider the winning option against each negative consequence and suggest a plan
of action to minimize the adverse effects.
Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis
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• Identify potential problems
• Identify likely causes
• Take preventive action
• Plan contingent action
• Set triggers
Kepner-Tregoe Potential Problems
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• Bias: the decision on the weights of the “wants”
• Quantum measurement:
–Approach defines the outcome and the way to achieve it
–You can have one or the other
• Time is Money
–Going through the process is more effort that management
wants to invest: just solve it now!
…and yet
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Cynefin:
Knowledge based problem solving
Pronounced “ku-nev-in”
Welsh word meaning “the place of your belongings”
Developed by David Snowden
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• Founder and Chief Scientific Officer
• Specialised in complexity with regard
to decision making
• Developed a science based approach
to organisations drawing on
anthropology, neuroscience and
complex adaptive systems theory
Professor Dave Snowden and Cognitive-Edge
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• A categorization model
–May be good for exploitation
–But not good for exploration
–The framework precedes the
data
–You drop your data in the box
then decide
A Sense-Making Model, not a Categorization Model
High
Low
Here There
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The Cynefin Basic Framework: Obvious
• Ordered System:
–Cause and Effect are
• Predictable
• Repeatable
Sense – Categorise – Respond
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The Cynefin Basic Framework: Complicated
• Cause and Effect are
not self-evident
• Expertise is required Sense – Analyse – Respond
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The Cynefin Basic Framework: Complex
• Cause and Effect are
only clear in hindsight
• Emergent Outcomes
Probe – Sense – Respond
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The Cynefin Basic Framework: Chaotic
• No Cause and Effect
• Good for Innovation
• Needs Stabilizing
Act – Sense – Respond
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The Cynefin Basic Framework
Dependent on
the space
where you
are, you need
to think and
analyse
differently
: Disorder
People naturally chose
their preferred modus
operandi
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The Cynefin Basic Framework
Bureaucrats blame the process
Experts need the time and resources
Politicians and military minded call in
many people in the hope that one of
them has a solution
Dictatorship principles:
absolute power
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The Cynefin Basic Framework
probe-sense-respond
sense-analyse-respond
sense-categorise-respond
act-sense-respond
Enabling constraints
Governing constraints
Fixed constraints
No effective constraint
Emergent
Practice
Good Practice
Best Practice
Novel Practice
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Dealing with Complexity
probe-sense-respond
sense-analyse-respond
sense-categorise-respond
act-sense-respond
Enabling constraints
Governing constraints
Fixed constraints
No effective constraint
Emergent
Practice
Good Practice
Best Practice
Novel Practice
Create interventions that are
• Coherent
• Safe to fail
• Finely grained / tangible
And some interventions that are
• Oblique
• Naïve approaches
• High risk / high yield
• Contradictory
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• Work with silos, not against them
• Distributed ethnography
• Modularity
• Human Metadata
Enabling Complexity
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Liminal Cynefin
Enabling constraints
Governing constraints
Fixed constraints
No effective constraint
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• “Any observed statistical regularity will tend to
collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control
purposes“ (Charles Goodhart)
• “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a
good measure” (Marilyn Strathern)
• “Any extrinsic reward destroys intrinsic motivation”
(New Scientist 9th April 2011)
Goodhart’s Law
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• System thinking starts from an ideal situation and
decides what needs to be done
–It fails because the idealism is too far
• Complexity thinking starts from the current state and
starting a journey with a sense of direction but without
overstating the goals
–We can discover things along the way
• Value the Cynics
Conclusion
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• Description of the present is far more important than
any description of the future
–Collect stories of what things look like today
–Look for unintended consequences
–Your business is a people business, not an engineering
business
Key Conclusion
Pavlov’s dog apparatus – creates a reaction like that of a consultant smelling a problem that fits his solution
Tarek el-Tayeb Mohamed Bouazizi
Lybian revolution
Arab Spring
War in Syria
Russian military
Over 500k killed
Tea
East India Company, 1615
Originally chartered as the "Governor and Company of Merchants of London trading into the East Indies", the company rose to account for half of the world's trade, particularly in basic commodities including cotton, silk, indigo dye, salt, saltpetre, tea and opium. The company also ruled the beginnings of the British Empire in India.
Popular through the coffee houses
Boiling water
resistance to the plague
discovery of the power of steam
Thomas Newcomen: used to remove water from wells
create the steam engine
travelling
need to standardize time
GMT
Situation appraisal - is used to clarify the situation, outline concerns and choose a direction
Problem analysis - here the problem is defined and it's root cause determined
Decision analysis - alternatives are identified and a risk analysis done for each
Potential problem analysis - the best of the alternatives is further scrutinized against potential problems and negative consequences and actions are proposed to minimize the risk.
What
What specific Object has the deviation?
Where
Were is the object when the deviation is observed (geographically)
Where is the deviation om the product
When
When was the deviation first observed?
When, since that time, has the deviation been observed?
Any Pattern?
When in the object's history or lifecycle was the deviation first observed
Extent
How many objects have the deviation?
Wat is the size of the deviation?
How many deviations on each object?
What is the trend?
...in the number of occurrences in the deviation?
...in the object?
... in the number of occurrences of the deviation?
...in the size of the deviation?
Strong constraints: if you do the same thing twice, the same outcome will result
Constraints govern choices and outcomes
The system provides some constraints, but the agents modify the systems and the constraints as they act upon it. The constraints end up being modulators rather than drivers. We don’t have linear causality, we get constraints that modify the behaviour, but not in a predictable way.
The system is now dispositional, not causal: disposed to react in a way. We can identify the cause with hindsight
This is the reality of most human fields.
Whatever I do will have unintended consequences for which I need to take responsibility – learn to identify them and exploit them
The collapse from complacency
Complex is about exploration; Complicated is about exploitation – Any human endeavour is about moving things from complex to complicated.
You need to relax constraints to allow the exploration of new opportunities, then strengthen them so as to exploit them.
Sometimes you need to break the constraints and take a short plunge through chaos.
Very occasionally, things go down to “obvious”, where they go to die.
Coherent : don’t do just because someone thinks it’s a good idea – there needs to be rationality behind it. If it’s coherent, run a safe-to-fail experiment (conflict resolution)
Safe to fail: if it doesn’t work, we can recover – include early signs of failure and early signs of success; determine the dampening strategies (if it fails) and the amplification strategies (if it succeeds)
Finally grained and Tangible: understandable
Oblique: trying to solve another problem, related to the problem you actually have
Naïve: people who respond to a different reality, have a different experience (Holiday Inn put anthropologists in their hotels)
Exaptation: Exaptation and the related term co-option describe a shift in the function of a trait during evolution. For example, a trait can evolve because it served one particular function, but subsequently it may come to serve another. Exaptations are common in both anatomy and behaviour. Bird feathers are a classic example: initially they may have evolved for temperature regulation, but later were adapted for flight. Interest in exaptation relates to both the process and products of evolution: the process that creates complex traits and the products that may be imperfectly developed.
Coherence
Silos: Complexity is about pragmatism, work with where you are, not with an ideal world; people are like this, how do we handle it
Distributed ethnography: understand the patterns through which people will break society: let the users be their own analysists
Modularity: getting the modularity right is key
Human metadata: gather stories from users everytime they think of something and interpret the data they are collecting. Capture your data and ideas on a continuous basis get ambiguous analytical data with a similar metastructure – identify the user stories that have no technology, as well as the technology that have no user stories
The liminal aspect shows the possibility of maintaining an intermediate status before moving on:
Short passage into chaotic to make new discoveries
Transition from complex to complicated – scrum allows rapid understanding and changes to pass from complex to complicated
Waterfall works well in obvious
Time-box development works best on the border complicated/obvious
Pre-scrum techniques work best in complex: pair programming in which users who are trained to talk to IT people
Premature convergence: coming to a conclusion will create failure; restrospective coherence: the past doesn’t repeat
The liminal aspect shows the possibility of maintaining an intermediate status before moving on:
Short passage into chaotic to make new discoveries
Transition from complex to complicated – scrum allows rapid understanding and changes to pass from complex to complicated
Waterfall works well in obvious
Time-box development works best on the border complicated/obvious
Pre-scrum techniques work best in complex: pair programming in which users who are trained to talk to IT people
If you place the right information in front of the right person at the right time, they will see the information, they will pay attention to it and they will act on it – if they are autistic
Getting the right level of feedback and the right level of granularity allows for natural growth