Case study competition on the past M&A transaction between Tatts Group Ltd and Tabcorp
Completing this case involved:
- Advising Tatts on how to proceed against the Tabcorp offer
- Creating a competitive bidding environment to force Tabcorp to raise their offers
- Market analysis of the gambling sector
- Valuation of Tatts through a DCF
- Constructing a merger model between Tatts and Tabcorp
- Devising various defence strategies against unfavourable takeover proposals
- Write-up of an ASX notice to Tatts' shareholders
- Creation of a decision tree to guide Tatts throughout this defence
2. 2
Contents page
Executive summary 3
Evaluation of Tabcorp’s offer 4
Rationale for offer rejection 5
Valuation of Tatts 6
Proposed course of action 7
Option 1: Enter into scheme of arrangement with Tabcorp at a higher premium 8-9
Option 2: Divest the Wagering division 10-11
Decision tree analysis 12
Transaction risks 13
Recommended next steps 14
Appendix 15-46
3. 1
2
3
4
5
6
3
Executive summary
Tabcorp’s offer of A$4.07 per share will generate substantial value through EPS accretion but at the
expense of Tatts’ shareholders
Evaluation of current offer
The offer should be declined as it grossly undervalues Tatts at the current low trading price and comprises of
a consideration structure which exposes Tatts shareholders to significant risk
Rationale for offer rejection
Tatts has an implied share price of ~A$4.21 per share which is ~16% higher than the recent closing priceValuation of TTS share
Tatts should seek to merge with Tabcorp at a higher premium to create an A$11.4b diversified gaming
powerhouse which can mitigate the increasing domestic and foreign competition
Primary course of action
If the Tabcorp merger fails, Tatts should sell the Wagering division to Tabcorp as it is not financially
sustainable and is a strategic fit with Tabcorp’s current offerings
Secondary course of action
The proposed course of action has inherent risks such as regulatory, consideration and hostile off market
bidding risk. However, these can be mitigated by implementing various defensive strategies
Transaction risks
4. 4
Evaluation of Tabcorp’s offer
The deal is expected to generate substantial EPS accretion at the expense of Tatts’ shareholders
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E
Pre transaction Post transaction
EPS accretion / dilution Pro forma financials
Synergies and premium sensitivitySynergies split
There is EPS dilution in FY17 and FY18 due to the synergy
implementation cost and 2 year integration time
Synergies derived from the improvement in UBET’s fixed odds
yield through Tabcorp’s risk management strategies; EBITDA
margin improvements via technology integration, consolidation of
wagering functions and corporate cost cuts
NPV of synergies post tax of ~ A$823m based on a A$110m one
off integration cost, full run rate within 2 years and 3% EBITDA
growth YoY
At an 11.8% premium above Tatts’ recent closing price of $3.64
and A$138m EBITDA of synergies in FY21, the deal is 24.80%
EPS accretive
If EBITDA synergies drop to A$98m in FY21, the deal is still
~20% EPS accretive
Source: Tabcorp and Tatts FY16 Annual Report
(3.10%) 1.39%
19.62% 22.27% 24.80%
The merged entity will be an A$11.4b gaming powerhouse with
over A$5b and A$1b in revenue and EBITDA respectively
A$m Combined group
Market cap 4,143 5,331 9,474
Net debt 870 1,041 1,884
EV 5,013 6,372 11,384
Revenue 2,193 2,925 5,119
EBITDA 508 496 1,004
EBIT 329 421 750
FY16 Pro forma combined entity before synergies
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Premium to closing price
$0.25 (20%) (10%) - 10% 20% 30%
98 44% 36% 28% 21% 15% 9%
EBITDA 118 47% 38% 31% 24% 17% 12%
Synergies 138 50% 41% 33% 26% 20% 14%
FY21E 158 53% 44% 36% 28% 22% 16%
178 56% 47% 38% 31% 24% 18%
5. 5
Rationale for offer rejection
Tabcorp’s offer should be rejected as it is significantly below Tatts’ implied value
Offer structure Insufficient premium
Directors’ interest and future of lotteries business
Current arrangement: Each Tatts share receives 0.80 Tabcorp
shares (worth A$3.97) and A$0.10 cash per share
The scrip consideration exposes Tatts shareholders to greater
risk from the wagering industry and is inherently prone to value
fluctuations
Scrip could be worth ~6% lower than what was stated if 6m
VWAP is used
Negotiate to lower scrip consideration to reduce exposure to the
wagering business which is facing intensifying competition
Increase cash consideration to mitigate depreciating scrip risk
Tabcorp shareholders are benefiting more from this transaction
because they get long term access to the lotteries business as
well as the synergies from the consolidation of the wagering
businesses. Therefore, Tatts shareholders need to be further
compensated for this asymmetric benefit
The scheme implied value of A$4.07 per share is not attractive if
the 3-6m VWAP is considered
Under the scheme, Tatts’ directors will not be on the board of the
merged entity
Tabcorp’s directors do not have the proper expertise and
experience to strategically manage the lotteries division without
the help of Tatts’ directors
Not in shareholders’ interests to have a board with only wagering
sector experience to run national lotteries; negatively impacting
financial return
Will further affect synergy integration, possibly compromising
EPS accretion
Aggregated, future growth and sustainability may be conceded
Source: UBS Research
4.07
3.64 3.68
3.84 3.85
Offer Closing 1 m VWAP 3m VWAP 6m VWAP
11.81%
10.60%
5.99% 5.71%
TAH price Scrip value Cash Implied value per share
Closing price 4.96 3.97 0.1 4.07
1m VWAP 5.01 4.01 0.1 4.11
3m VWAP 4.94 3.95 0.1 4.05
6m VWAP 4.64 3.71 0.1 3.81
TAH scheme of arrangement offer
6. LBO
DCF
Precedent transactions
EV / FY16 EBITDA
EV / FY17 EBITDA
52-week trading range
6
Valuation of Tatts
Tabcorp’s offer of A$4.07 is substantially below Tatts’ implied price of A$4.21
Methodology CommentsShare price (A$)
MarketvaluationFundamental
valuation
Capacity
topay
Low: $3.64 on 15 March 2016
High: $4.39 on 1 Jan 2016
Sum of the parts approach (SOTP)
Low: 7.33 x
High: 18.00 x
Included infrastructure comps
SOTP approach
Low: 6.85 x
High: 17.15 x
Included infrastructure comps
SOTP approach (historical EBITDA)
Low: 6.26 x
High: 22.45 x
Included infrastructure transactions
Based on WACC of 8-10% and terminal
EBITDA multiple of 11.00-13.00 x
Implied growth rate of 2.45-3.39%
Assumes 5 year holding period, 20-25%
IRR, 58% total funding from debt and
14.00 x exit EBITDA multiple
3.64 4.39
5.441.75
1.77 5.39
1.41 6.90
3.73 4.77
3.64 4.26
Implied: $4.21Offer: $4.07
7. 7
Proposed course of action
Tatts should merge with Tabcorp. If this fails, divestment of the Wagering division should be considered
Merge with Tabcorp
Tatts shareholders can get exposure to the
upside of the merged entity via scrip
Consolidation of UBET with Tabcorp’s
Wagering businesses ensures it can compete
against well capitalised corporate
bookmakers
Intervention by regulators and the court
Tatts shareholders increase exposure to the
competitive wagering industry, resulting in “di-
worsification”
Tatts’ shareholders own >50% of the merged
entity
Tatts’ Board of Directors can have a position
in the new merged entity
Can demand a higher premium through
competitive bidding process
Divest the Wagering division
Tatts shareholders lose all exposure to the
Wagering business
UBET may be unable to withstand increasing
competitive pressures without assistance
from Tabcorp
Offload an underperforming division
Unlikely to face intervention from regulators
and the court
Tatts shareholders keep control of the
lucrative Lotteries division
Tatts’ Board of Directors keep their position
Divestment gives Tatts’ shareholders a
substantial cash dividend of A$0.75-1.02 per
share
1 2
8. 8
Option 1: Enter into scheme of arrangement with Tabcorp at a higher premium
Tatts should first seek a 20% premium from Tabcorp. If this fails, Tatts can induce an auctioning process
Rationale of merger
Improvement of Tatts’ underperforming wagering and gaming
services divisions via superior risk management strategies and
technology
Extension of geographic control of operations across Australia
and provides groundwork for international expansion
Economies of scale through vertically integrating systems and
horizontally extending product lines
Unparalleled opportunity to maximize shareholder value through
combined licences and functions, greater balance sheet strength
and profitability
Change consideration structure to less scrip and more cash
Change board and management clause in order to sustain Tatts’
board position in merged entity
Inadequate expertise in the field of lotteries warrants Tatts
Directors’ management and leadership in merged entity
Disclose the
highest bid
Put pressure on
Tabcorp
Seek other
potential bids
Private equity
Infrastructure funds
Canadian pension funds
Corporate bookmakers
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E
Pre transaction Post transaction
Amendment to merger implementation deed
Strategy to induce a competitive bidding environment
Financial impact of ideal transaction
An offer price of $4.37 (20% premium) comprised of 0.70 TAH
shares and A$0.70 cash per TTS share, the deal is still EPS
accretive
The arrangement involves 80% scrip and 20% debt. Leverage
ratio is 0.43 x in FY17 but falls to 0.26 x by FY21
(5.46%)
0.33%
21.34%
25.25%
28.91%
9. 9
Potential bidders that Tatts can approach
The infrastructure-like characteristics of Tatts’ Lotteries business will attract numerous investors
Strong LBO candidate Capacity to pay
Tatts’ Lotteries business has consistent cash flows as it holds a
monopolised position in a mature industry and has strong support
from government regulators
The Lottery business is profitable given its low economic
sensitivity and high regulatory barriers
Maintenance of the Lott requires low capital expenditure given
the operating model of the business
Private equity and infrastructure funds see opportunities to
improve Tatts’ underperforming wagering division
PE firms can pay up to $4.26 (17% premium) in order to meet
their 20% minimum IRR hurdle
The ability of PE firms to offer a high premium is likely to force
Tabcorp to increase their offer to around 20%
Source: Company websites
Potential bidders Rationale Company snapshot
Private equity firms
Tatts requires low maintenance capital
expenditure and possesses improvement
opportunities in underperforming divisions
Leading global investment firm that manages private equity,
energy, infrastructure, real estate and credit
Approximately A$4.6t AUM
Canadian pension funds
Tatts provides access to reliable cash flows
in a stable regulatory environment to match
payment of long term liabilities
Canadian pension funds are large shareholders in listed and
unlisted Australian infrastructure assets
OTPP has holdings in numerous National Lotteries and was
an under bidder to Tatts for the 2010 NSW Lotteries license
Strategic acquirers
Tatts allows for the introduction of pari-
mutual and consolidation of fixed-odds
betting in order to increase market share
British-based betting and gambling company
Ladbrokes entered into the Australian fixed-odds market in
2013 through the acquisition of Bookmaker.com and now
possesses 10% market share within the domestic market
Premium
20% (20%) (10%) - 10% 20% 30%
6.50 x 4% 0% (3%) (7%) (10%) (14%)
Exit 11.50 x 24% 21% 18% 15% 13% 10%
Multiple 14.00 x 31% 28% 25% 22% 19% 17%
16.50 x 36% 33% 30% 27% 25% 23%
19.00 x 41% 38% 35% 32% 30% 27%
10. 10
Option 2: Divest the Wagering division
Tabcorp may want to only purchase the Wagering division as it can realise synergies at a lower cost
Valuation of the Wagering division Keeping the Lotteries business
Selling Wagering business
The wagering division is worth between A$1.3-1.6b which implies
a 9.46-12.89 x multiple of FY16 EBITDA
Defensive crown jewel asset that offers consistent returns and is
strong as a standalone entity
Divestment allows Tatts to focus on their core competency, the
Lotteries division
The Lotteries division is posed for substantial growth due to the
significant increase in digital turnover
Long term interest in Lotteries business and corresponding
licenses provides earnings stability
Lotteries is a defensive asset during economic downturns
Reduces risk to the wagering industry which is extremely
competitive and prone to unpredictable regulatory change
UBET’s underperformance (-8.6% CAGR) and smaller market
share is unsustainable, given competition and regulation
Attractive to Tabcorp as majority of synergies are derived from
the consolidation of wagering functions
Also appealing due to a national combination of totes and racing
industry benefits
Divestment could result in a cash dividend of A$0.75-1.02 per
Tatts share
Source: Tatts Annual Report; UBS Research
908
1,284
1,659
859
1,173
1,681
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Min Mean Max Min Mean Max
Enterprisevalue
(A$m)
465
1,296
1,745
590
1,167
1,619
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Min Mean Max Min Mean Max
Enterprisevalue
(A$m)
Comparable companies based on EV / EBITDA multiples
Precedent transactions based on EV / EBITDA multiples
FY16 EBITDA FY17 EBITDA
FY16 EBITDA FY17 EBITDA
11. 11
Valuation of Lotteries and Gaming Services division
The enterprise value of Tatts will be ~A$5.6b post divestment of the underperforming Wagering division
Pro forma financial position post divestment Valuation of Lotteries division
Valuation of Gaming Services division
The divestment of the Wagering division for A$1.3-1.6b would
result in a cash dividend to shareholders of A$0.75-1.02 per Tatts
share
Total value of the divestment is ~A$4.13 which is 13.46% above
the current share price
The cash dividend solidifies a strong return for shareholders
whilst offloading an underperforming asset
The Lotteries division has an EV of ~A$4.0-5.0b which implies a
12.17-13.39 x FY16 EBITDA multiple
The Gaming Services division has an EV of ~ A$500-600m which
implies a 4.30-5.16 x FY16 EBITDA multiple
2,294
3,775
6,669
2,234
4,380
8,870
Min Mean Max
Comparable companies Precedent transactions
Enterprise value based on FY16 EBITDA multiple
409
477
527
434
509
602
Min Mean Max
Comparable companies Precedent transactions
Enterprise value based on FY16 EBITDA multiple
Pre divestment Post divestment
EV EV
Lotteries 5,000 5,000
Wagering 1,600 -
Gaming Services 600 600
Total 7,200 5,600
Net debt (1,041) (1,041)
Implied share price $4.21 $3.11
Cash dividend - $1.02
Total value $4.21 $4.13
Lotteries Gaming Services
12. 12
Decision tree analysis
Tatts should renegotiate the offer with Tabcorp to increase the premium and adjust the consideration
Reject proposed MID by
Tabcorp as the offer of A$4.07
(11.8% premium) heavily
undervalues Tatts and the
consideration structure is not in
the best interests of Tatts
shareholders
Ask Tabcorp to increase
premium to at least 20% to
A$4.37
Seek to renegotiate MID terms
to ensure Tatts’ directors have a
place in the merged entity; also
renegotiate consideration terms
to increase cash and reduce
scrip
If the renegotiations are
successful, approve the
takeover
Trading Halt
Lodge ASX release notice to
apply pressure to Tabcorp’s
proposal whilst garnering other
bidders’ attention
Create a competitive bidding
environment by inviting private
equity, infrastructure funds and
strategic acquirers to place a
bid
The capacity to pay by PE will
assist in raising bids, as they
can offer up to $4.26 (17%
premium)
Announce to market the
bidders’ statement in order to
solicit the attention of Tabcorp
Continuation of trading
Accept newly proposed MID by
Tabcorp to fully takeover Tatts
Indicative offer price of A$4.37
Consideration of 0.70 TAH
shares and $0.7 cash per TTS
share
Tabcorp’s board raises offer
premium greater than 20%
Divest the wagering division to
Tabcorp for ~A$1.3-$1.6b
Issue cash dividend to Tatts
shareholders of A$0.75-1.02
per share
If 20% premium not attained,
seek to divest wagering division
1 2 3a
3b
13. 13
Risks
The suggested course of action faces transaction and industry risks
Source: Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth); Tabcorp Annual Report; Tatts Annual Report
M&A transaction risks Description / mitigation
Failure to obtain
ACCC approval
The transaction is likely to face ACCC pushback in regards to the consolidation of the
companies’ Wagering and Gaming Services divisions and synergies between Tatts’ retail and
Tabcorp’s broadcasting networks
This can be mitigated through negotiation and cooperation with Tabcorp, regulators and other
affected 3rd parties
Volatility in scrip
value
Fluctuations in share price after the agreed upon conversion ratio may adversely affect value to
Tatts or Tabcorp shareholders
Collars can be used to lock the conversion ratio within a certain price range
Hostile takeover
attempt
Upon rejection of Tabcorp’s offer, they may engage in a hostile takeover attempt to acquire Tatts
Defensive strategies include persuading majority shareholders and stand-still agreements
Industry risks Description / mitigation
Regulatory
changes
If the Lotteries division is retained as Tatts’ sole service, the company’s profitability becomes
highly contingent on regulatory and tax rate changes
This risk is unlikely to eventuate as regulators have aligned interests with Tatts
Tatts’ Lotteries business is also diversified through an extensive national network spanning
across numerous jurisdictions
Competition in
gaming
monitoring
Tabcorp and Tatts currently enjoy an oligopoly in Queensland as the only two government-
mandated monitoring operations.
This may be disrupted by the government’s provision of Licensed Gaming Monitor rights to
competitors; e.g. Utopia Gaming, who was recently granted the license earlier this year
1
2
3
1
2
Likelihood / impact
Likelihood / impact
14. 14
Recommended next steps
Tatts should begin my trying to renegotiate the scheme of arrangement terms with Tabcorp
Seek to renegotiate scheme
terms to increase premium from
11.8% to at least 20%
Seek to change the
consideration structure to
increase cash and reduce scrip.
Recommended structure
involveschange agreement
0.70 TAH shares and A$0.70
cash per TTS share
Seek to terms to enable Tatts’
directors to be on the board of
merged entity
Negotiate initial offer
1
Recommended approach if
Tabcorp accepts amendments
to initial offer
Transaction worth A$4.37 per
share for Tatts shareholders
Merge with Tabcorp
3a
If Tabcorp does not agree to
renegotiations, proceed to
create competitive auction
environment
Lodge the ASX release to the
market once trading begins
again
Begin talks with other interested
bidders such as PE and
disclose if any superior
proposals are offered
The aim is to coerce Tabcorp to
improve their offer
Create a competitive bidding
environment
2
Divest Wagering division
3b
Supplementary approach if
Tabcorp does not raise their
new offer premium >20%
Transaction worth A$4.13 per
share for Tatts shareholders
15. 15
Appendix table of contents
Appendix I – Industry & company analysis
Gambling industry 17
Demand drivers of gambling industry 18
Executive team of TattsGroup 19
Tatts’ Lotteries business 20
Tatts’ Wagering business 21
Tatts’ Gaming Services business 22
Shareholder analysis 23
Full overview of the decision tree 24
In-depth bidding scenario analysis 25
ACCC regulatory concerns 26
Precedent ACCC Review results 27
Combined group - Geographical reach 28
Combined group – License expiry dates 29
Appendix II – Valuation
Basic assumptions and WACC 31
Tatts financial statement projection assumptions 32
Tatts income statement 33
Tatts balance sheet 34
Tatts cash flow statement 35
Discounted cash flow analysis 36
Comparable company analysis 37
Precedent transactions 38
Merger model assumptions 39
Merger model 42
Debt pay down schedule and key ratios 43
Leveraged buyout assumptions 44
Leverage buyout model 45
17. 6.60%
8.20%
9.40%
11.10%
13.50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Digitalturnover
17
Gambling industry
The Australian gambling industry is mature, highly regulated and has substantial barriers to entry
Wagering Lotteries
KenoGaming services
Consistent growth has spurred the entry and consolidation of
international and domestic corporate bookmakers
The main driver of this industry is the increased utilisation of
technology to facilitate online ticket purchases
This segment has experienced substantial growth due to high
barriers to entry and heavy regulation thus accentuating the value
of licences
Keno’s low growth due to small prize pools is being revitalised
through brand transformation programs and the interstate pooling
of jackpots
Source: IBISWorld
3,371 3,406
3,528
3,778
3,875
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Revenue(A$m)
213
227
263
296
359
200
250
300
350
400
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Revenue(A$m)
1,199
1,296
1,198
1,233
1,322
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Revenue(A$m)
18. 18
Demand drivers of gambling industry
The key drivers of the gambling industry are population and income growth and digital integration
Australian population growth Australian household disposable income
Changing age demographicsAdvancement of digital platforms
Source: ABS
843
982 968 994 1029 1009
0
400
800
1200
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Meanweeklydisposable
household
income(A$)
21 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 24 24 24
1.6
1.9
2.2
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.8 1.7
1.5 1.4
1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0
10
20
30
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
PopulationGrowth(%)
Population(m)
14
15 15
16 17
18 18
19 20 20 21
6.5
7.1
5.1 5.5
4.2
6.4
1
6.7
3.4
1.8
1.7
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
InternetUsageGrowth(%)
InternetUsage(m)
3.1%
11.2%
1.9%1.1%
7.3%
10.0%
17.2%
2.7%2.6%
5.2%5.3%
12.1%
7.7%
29.3%
25.4%
19.7%
5.4%
20.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0 to
4
10
to
14
20
to
24
30
to
34
40
to
44
50
to
54
60
to
64
70
to
74
80
to
84
%Change
Changeinnumberofpeople
19. 19
Executive team of TattsGroup
The Executive team of Tatts possesses extensive operational expertise and should be retained
Source: Tatts FY16 Annual Report
Andrew Collins HEAD OF CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT
Newly appointed head of domestic and
international corporate activities
Responsible for leading the Group’s acquisition
and licensing, along with involvement in
subsequent integration actions
Brendan Parnell CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER - WAGERING
Recently appointed COO of Wagering in 2016
Previously led Tabcorp’s Media business Sky
Racing and MD of Tabcorp International
Possesses almost three decades’ experience in
broadcast media, sports, betting and
international trade
Frank Makryllos CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER – GAMING
Re-joined Tatts in 2013 as COO of Gaming
Previously CEO of Intralot Australia, Chief
Executive of Tatts Pokies
Frank has a Masters of Business Administration
and has completed several courses through
Harvard and London Business Schools
Sue Van Der Merwe CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER - LOTTERIES
Has served as COO of Lotteries since 2014
Possesses over 25 years’ experience in the
lottery industry
Started her career in marketing lotto games in
1990 and progressed through various
management roles
Neale O’Connell CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Served as Chief Financial Officer since 2012
Previously lead the Group as the General
Manager of Finance throughout key events
including the UNiTAB merger, acquisition of Qld,
NSW and SA Lotteries and Tas Tote, and
acquisition and divestment of Tatts UK
Anne Tucker GENERAL COUNSEL & COMPANY SECRETARY
Served as General Counsel and Company
Secretary since 2013
Previously part of the UNiTAB team in 2005, and
lawyer at Clayton Utz
Possesses experience and knowledge within the
gaming industry as well as merger, acquisition
and integration activities
Ashleigh Loughnan PEOPLE, PROPERTY & PROCUREMENT MANAGER
Served as Executive General Manger of People,
Property & Procurement since 2013
Has undertaken numerous projects including
implementation of technology and process
improvements, and rollout of new HR
information systems
Mandy Ross CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER
Served as Chief Information Officer since 2014
Previously CTO of start-up Literary Planet and
CIO of Wotif Group and possesses 15 years
industry experience
Awarded Boss Young Executive of the year, and
CEO Magazine runner-up CIO of the year
20. 20
Tatts’ Lotteries business
The lottery industry in Australia is highly dominated by Tatts’ lotto division
Overview Demand Drivers
Licenses
Tatts is the only non-government owned Australian lottery
operator with licenses allowing it to conduct business in all states
& territories except for WA
Operates the entirety of the lottery business under ”The Lott”
umbrella brand
2 million registered card players
2.5 million registered online players
Distributes lottery products at 3,900 agencies
Has distribution agreements with Jumbo Interactive to provide a
digital channel for consumers to purchase its lottery tickets online
An increase in per capita gambling expenditure generally
translates to greater expenditure on lotteries
Consumers that belong in the older age brackets tend to
represent a large market for the industry
Customer base predominantly located on the 45+ age groups
Increases for a household’s disposable income typically allows
them to spend more money on non-essential items or activities,
such as gambling and lottery tickets
The average length of lottery licenses is 25 years
Near-term expiry of the Victorian lotteries license
Renewal of license is presently under discussion between Tatts
and the Victorian Government
Source: IBISWorld; Tatts Annual Report
2018
2020
2032
2050
2052
2072
VIC TAS NT NSW SA QLD
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Change
Realpercapitatotalgambling
turnover($)
Real per capita total gambling turnover
21. 21
Tatts’ Wagering business
Wagering operates under Tatts’ UBET brand and it accounts for 21% of the company’s revenue
UBET Overview Competition and Operation Threats
Operation highlights
UBET was launched in April 2015 to consolidate and streamline
its Tattsbet, Tatts.com, TAB and Tote divisions
UBET possesses exclusive licenses to offer totalisator and fixed
odds wagering through its retail channels on-course, off-course,
and online in QLD, SA, TAS and NT.
The opening of 162 new retail stores has generated a 8.4%
turnover growth compared to existing wagering retail stores in the
same geographic areas
Strong growth in UBET’s online platform is evidenced by a 22.5%
uplift in digital sales from FY15
UBET’s exclusive retail license renewal in the NT for 20 years
will offer strong local presence
Fixed-price sales on racing and sports saw an increase of 24.1%
Source: Tatts FY16 Annual Report
Performance faces downward pressures from competition
174
161
153
133
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
EBITDAA$M
23.7 22.4 21.5
19.0
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY13FY14FY15FY16
EBITDA/EBITMargin(%)
EBIT EBITDA
UBET’s pari-mutuel focused wagering service faces strong direct
and indirect competitions from other totalisators and corporate
bookmakers
A trend of deregulation of the wagering industry has prompted a
significant influx of foreign corporate bookmakers
The digitalisation of the gambling industry raises redundancy
risks for UBET’s heavy retail network
The potential grant of retail licenses to other entities will direct
significant competitive pressures upon UBET’s exclusive retail
haven
22. 22
Tatts’ Gaming Services business
Tatts operates in this industry through Maxgaming and Bytecraft
Overview Demand Drivers
Licenses
Maxgaming - intended to create additional valued-added
services in contracted venues as well as fulfilling the
government-mandated monitoring across NSW, QLD and
the NT to approximately 136,000 gaming machines.
Furthermore, it is able to provide workflow management
products
Bytecraft – provider of a fully-managed gaming
maintenance, logistics and technology support service
business to a vast number of ASX top-50 companies, and
other brands as well. The relating services include,
warehousing, installation, relocation, repair and
maintenance
Won the exclusive right to monitor all hotel- and club-based
gaming machines in NSW until 2032. Additionally, extended its
current monitoring arrangements for one-year until 2017
Source: IBISWorld
2021
2027
2032
NT QLD NSW
A greater number of poker and gaming machines installed in
Australia influences operators to demand gaming services
Casinos are the largest purchasers and operators of gaming
machines in most Australian states. The gambling demand initiated
from casinos will drive up the need of value-added gaming services
and monitoring
There exists correlation between real household discretionary
income and gambling expenditure. Consumers are more likely to
increase gambling expenditure as discretionary income increases
Forecasted casino revenue
0.3
15.8
2.7
-8.8
3.3
2.7
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
5000
5300
5600
5900
6200
6500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Change(%)
CasinoRevenue($m)
23. 23
Shareholder analysis
Tatts has a relatively high concentration of retail investors, owning ~40% of total shares outstanding
Source: DatAnalysis
Institutional shareholder analysis
Retail shareholder distributionTop 5 substantial shareholders hold 20.6% of Tatts
Shareholder % # shares (m)
Recent
transaction
Perpetual Ltd 6.7% 98.1.
Sold – March
2016
JCP Investment Partners 4.9% 72.2
Sold –
November
2014
Australian Super 4.7% 68.9 n.a.
The Vanguard Group 2.5% 36.6 n.a.
Blackrock 1.8% 26.0 n.a.
Perpetual 6.7%
JCP Investment Partners 4.9%
AustralianSuper 4.7%
BlackRock
1.8%
The Vanguard Group 2.5%
Others
79.4%
1 - 1,000 shares held
1,001 - 5,000 shares held
5,001 - 10,000 shares held
10,001 - 100,000 shares held
63%
10%
8%
19%
Shareholder distribution % # of shareholders # of shares
1 – 1,000 0.52% 13,515 7,680,884
1,001 – 5,000 8.51% 44,257 124,094,022
5,001 – 10,000 3.58% 7,061 52,267,219
10,001 - 100,000 8.81% 5,638 128,612,863
100,001 and over 78.58% 374 1,147,929,714
Distribution of all shareholders
24. 24
Full overview of the decision tree
Considering every possible outcome in order to reach a favorable conclusion for Tatts
Premium
>20%
Trading Halt Negotiations
Accept
Merge whole
business
Release ASX
statement +
seek other
bidders
Premium
<20%
Reject
Disclose
highest bid
Re-negotiate
with Tabcorp
Accept
Divest UBET Accept
Hostile off-
market
takeover
Standstill
agreement
Tabcorp (Hostile)
Persuade
shareholders
against
takeover
Others
Approach
Tabcorp
(White Knight)
Blocking Stake
Current Position
25. 25
In-depth bidding scenario analysis
Analysis of unfavorable bidding scenarios and what appropriate defense methods Tatts should consider
Hostile off-market takeovers by interlopers Hostile off-market takeover by Tabcorp
Announcement of unsolicited takeover bids will prompt Tabcorp’s
board of directors to take action against these bidders
Tabcorp will most likely pursue a pre-bid stake / blocking stake in
order to prevent these bidders from achieving compulsory
acquisition (90% shares attained)
Most likely that Tabcorp will pursue a pre-bid stake before
conducting further acquisitions
Announcement of pre-bid stake will undoubtedly pressure Tatts’
shareholders to give up their shareholdings due to ‘bandwagon
effect’ and tempting offer value
Crown Jewels Defense
Persuading Tatts’
substantial shareholders
that the bids proposed by
companies other than
Tabcorp will not be in their
best interest
Unable to justify a premium
offer as high as Tabcorps
due to low-no synergies
realized and inadequate
management expertise to
operate Tatts’ business lines
Logical attack on the bid
Reach out to Tabcorp for
them to make a friendly
takeover offer
Bid implementation
agreement will contain ‘deal
protection mechanisms’ that
will prevent interlopers from
continuing their off-market
takeover
White Knight
Crown Jewels Defense
• Enter into a standstill
agreement with Tabcorp to
stall or prevent the process
of a hostile takeover
• Favourable for Tabcorp as it
solidifies an enclosed
bidding environment with
Tatts
• Only enact takeover if Tatts’
board of directors and
management are included in
the process, or in other
words, re-negotiate into a
scheme of arrangement
Standstill Agreement
Substantial remuneration
benefits given to board of
directors if Tatts is taken
over by Tabcorp and the
executives are terminated
as a result of the merger
Implement golden parachute
clauses within the employee
contract which sets out a
generous severance pay
Golden Parachute
Defensive Strategies Defensive Strategies
26. 26
Sector Potential complication Our view
Likelihood of
ACCC intervention
Wagering Tabcorp and Tatts are the only 2 non-
government totalisator operators in Australia
The acquisition may remove Tatts as a
competing supplier of totalisator pooling
services
The merger will be pro-competitive as it
creates strong competition against corporate
bookmakers
The companies’ wagering services do not
geographically overlap and are separated by
government-issued operating licenses
Broadcasting
Combination of Tabcorp’s Sky Racing
broadcasting service with Tatts’ retail network
may increase its license bidding power against
broadcasting competitors
Tatts’ retail businesses do not distribute
visual racing broadcasts
The bargaining power of other broadcasters
is not subdued as they hold exclusive
licenses in other jurisdictions and race types
Gaming
Services
Tabcorps’ and Tatts’ subsidiaries operate the
only two government-mandated monitoring
operations in Qld
The merger of the parent companies will likely
create a monopoly in the Qld monitoring sector
The acquisition is likely to substantially
lessen competition in the monitoring sector
A divestment of one of the subsidiaries may
be necessary to satisfy regulatory
requirements
The overlap of game monitoring services in Queensland is likely to raise concerns for the ACCC
Source: Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth); Tabcorp & Tatts Annual Report
ACCC regulatory concerns
The acquisition may be authorised where the net public benefit outweighs the anti-competitive detriment
The acquisition will greatly strengthen the racing industry through its funding arrangements; and
The merged entity’s ability to compete with international bookmakers will enrich the Australian economy
1
2
27. 27
Precedent ACCC Review results
Review of past ACCC anti-competitive assessments reveal this acquisition is likely to be approved
Tabcorp/UNiTAB August 2006 Expedia/Wotif October 2014
Source: Australian Competition and Consumer Commission
Facts: Tabcorp proposed a takeover of UNiTAB
Tabcorp holds totalisator wagering licenses in VIC
and NSW; UNiTAB holds totalisator wagering
licenses in Qld, NT and SA
Decision: Rejected
Reasoning: Competition for future wagering licenses would
be substantially lessened
The potential for new entrants to the wagering
markets will significantly decrease
Facts: Expedia proposed to acquire Wotif.
Both companies are global online travel agencies
(OTA) that assist in booking accommodation, flights,
vacation packages
Decision: Accepted
Reasoning: There has been an influx of new competitors and
business models, e.g. Trivago and TripAdvisor
The ability of the merged body to increase
commission is restricted by strong direct and
indirect market substitutes
Federation Centres/Novion Property Group May 2015
Facts: Federation proposed a merger with Novion
Both organisations are Real Estate Investment
Trusts that invest in shopping centres across
Australia
Decision: Accepted pursuant to shopping centre divesture
Reasoning: The two companies respectively own the only
two large multi-purpose shopping centres within
a 20km radius in Melbourne
There are sufficient alternative shopping centre
managers in other regions where the two
organisations operate
GrainCorp/Cargill storage & handling facility March 2016
Facts: GrainCorp proposed to acquire one of Cargill’s bulk
grain storage and handing facility in NSW
GrainCorp is an integrated grain handling and
processing business; Cargill operates a bulk storage
and handling facility
Decision: Accepted
Reasoning: Despite the removal of a close competitor at the
existing site, there will be effective competition
from other suppliers in the region
Graincorp’s storage and handling fees is fixed
Graincorp has an incentive to deliver efficient
services to growers to maximise facility usage
28. 28
Combined group - Geographical reach
An acquisition of Tatts would provide a unique diversification opportunity, both in product and geography
Geographical Reach
Business
Key brands:
TAB
Key brands:
Tatts
VIC
NS
W
ACT QLD SA TAS NT WA Intl.
Wagering
Lotteries
Keno
Gaming and
Gaming Services
Media
Source: UBS research; Tabcorp and Tatts Annual Reports
29. 29
Combined group – License expiry dates
An acquisition of Tatts would provide vital license holdings ensuring long-term sustainability and a
diversified portfolio in times of rapid change
Source: Tabcorp and Tatts Annual Reports
210020982097
20642062
2035
2024
Wagering
2052
2072
2050
2020
2032
2028
Lotteries
2047
2050
2064
2022
Keno
2027
2032
Gaming Services
Tabcorp Licenses Tatts Licenses
37. 37
Comparable company analysis
A sum of the parts approach was employed. Infrastructure companies were also included
Source: UBS Research
Comparable company analysis
Revenue EBITDA EBIT NPAT
Company Market cap Enterprise value FY16A FY17F FY16A FY17F FY16A FY17F FY16A FY17E
Tabcorp 4,143 5,013 2,193 2,245 508 525 329 347 170 196
Tatts 5,331 6,372 2,925 3,127 496 535 421 457 263 272
International wagering
Paddy Power Betfair 12,497 12,335 3,127 3,281 865 921 718 808 629 656
William Hill 4,443 5,161 2,996 3,093 661 663 520 495 439 355
Ladbrokes Coral 3,798 5,524 4,452 807 583 413
International lotteries / Infrastructure
IGT 6,482 16,854 6,314 7,301 2,138 2,506
Scientific Games 1,336 11,733 4,160 3,990 1,680 1,567
Intralot 240 1,032 2,071 2,320 268 314
Transurban 21,789 34,142 1,371 1,581 764 938 320 406
Sydney Airport 14,224 21,557 1,062 1,147 746 820 256 293
Macquarie Atlas 2,163 5,693 527 575 459 508 161 147
Gaming
Ainsworth 745 786 282 344 82 122 55 97 48 70
Aristocrat 10,095 11,100 2,372 2,465 943 929 811 770 507 493
Konami 6,797 5,739 5,739 3,217 676 812 507 563 384 333
EBITDA Historical EBITDA multiple (x) Forecasted EBITDA mutliple (x)
FY16 FY17 Min Mean Max Min Mean Max
Lotteries 329 355 6.98 11.49 20.30 6.73 10.73 18.80
Wagering 116 126 7.81 11.03 14.26 6.85 9.34 13.39
Gaming 51 55 8.49 9.95 11.77 6.44 8.49 11.95
Implied EV lotteries 2,294 3,775 6,669 2,384 3,804 6,665
Implied EV wagering 908 1,284 1,659 859 1,173 1,681
Imlied EV gaming 434 509 602 355 468 659
Total implied EV 3,637 5,568 8,930 3,599 5,444 9,006
Less: Net debt (1,041) (1,041) (1,041) (1,041) (1,041) (1,041)
Implied share price $1.77 $3.09 $5.39 $1.75 $3.01 $5.44
Implied EV / EBITDA 7.33 x 11.22 x 18.00 x 6.85 x 10.37 x 17.15 x
38. 38
Precedent transactions
A sum of the parts approach was used. Infrastructure transactions were also included
Source: UBS Research
Precedent transactions
EBITDA multiple
Target Acquirer Date Region Consideration (m) Historical Forecast
Lotteries / Infrastructure
SA Lotteries Management rights Tatts Nov-12 Australia $427 12.50 x 10.50 x
NSW Lotteries Corporation Tatts Mar-10 Australia $850 14.10 x 14.00 x
Golden Casket Lottery Corporation Tatts Apr-07 Australia $530 10.50 x 9.70 x
OPAP Emma Delta May-13 Europe € 2,158 6.80 x 8.00 x
Hellenic State Lotteries Hellenic Lotteries S.A. Dec-12 Europe € 190 9.10 x 8.80 x
Botany & Newcastle Ports Hastings / China Merchants Apr-13 Australia $1,750 27.00 x
Min: 6.80 x 8.00 x
Mean: 13.33 x 10.20 x
Max: 27.00 x 14.00 x
Wagering
UNiTAB Tattersall's Mar-06 Australia $1,900 12.70 x 11.40 x
TAB Tabcorp Nov-03 Australia $2,150 12.30 x 10.30 x
Centrebet Sportingbet May-11 Australia $185 12.00 x 7.50 x
Sportsbet Paddy Power Dec-10 Australia $370 11.35 x 8.00 x
International All Sports Sportsbet Jun-09 Australia $40 4.00 x 4.70 x
Coral Group Ladbrokes Jul-15 Europe € 1,112 9.60 x 8.90 x
bwin GVC Sep-15 Europe € 1,497 13.20 x 12.50 x
Sky Bet CVC Capital Partners Dec-14 Europe € 800 15.00 x 12.90 x
Sportingbet GVC and William Hill Oct-12 Europe € 491 10.10 x 7.50 x
Min: 4.00 x 4.70 x
Mean: 11.14 x 9.30 x
Max: 15.00 x 12.90 x
Gaming services
Intecq Tabcorp Aug-16 Australia $128 9.70 x 8.30 x
International Game Technology GTECH Jul-14 USA $4,626 8.00 x 9.00 x
Oldford Group Amaya Jun-14 USA $4,900 10.30 x 8.30 x
Min: 8.00 x 8.30 x
Mean: 9.33 x 8.53 x
Max: 10.30 x 9.00 x
EBITDA Historical EBITDA multiple Forecasted EBITDA mutliple
FY16 FY17 Min Mean Max Min Mean Max
Lotteries 329 355 6.80 x 13.33 x 27.00 x 8.00 x 10.20 x 14.00 x
Wagering 116 126 4.00 x 11.14 x 15.00 x 4.70 x 9.30 x 12.90 x
Gaming 51 55 8.00 x 9.33 x 10.30 x 8.30 x 8.53 x 9.00 x
Implied EV lotteries 2,234 4,380 8,870 2,836 3,616 4,963
Implied EV wagering 465 1,296 1,745 590 1,167 1,619
Imlied EV gaming 409 477 527 458 471 497
Total implied EV 3,108 6,153 11,142 3,884 5,255 7,079
Less: Net debt (1,041) (1,041) (1,041) (1,041) (1,041) (1,041)
Implied share price $1.41 $3.49 $6.90 $1.94 $2.88 $4.12
6.26 x 12.40 x 22.45 x 7.26 x 9.82 x 13.23 x
39. 39
Merger model assumptions
Offer, funding and transaction fee assumptions
Merger model assumptions
Offer assumptions
TTS closing price $3.64 Total shares in mergered entity 2,007
Offer price per share $4.07 Shares held by Tabcorp 835 41.61%
Premium paid 11.80% Shares held by Tatts 1,172 58.39%
Purchase equity value (m) $5,960
Implied enterprise value $7,001
Implied EV / FY16 EBITDA 14.11 x
Implied EV / FY16 Revenue 2.39 x
Implied P / FY16 Earnings 22.63 x
Funding assumptions
% cash : 0.00%
% debt: 2.46% Amount: Pre-tax cost:After-tax cost:
% scrip: 97.54% Cash used: - 1.95% 1.37%
Debt issued: 147 5.50% 3.85%
Scrip ratio 0.80 Scrip value: 5,813 4.10%
Shares issued: 1,172
Weighted average cost: 4.09%
Target's yield: 4.94%
Fees assumptions
Advisory fee (%): 1.50%
Debt issuance (%): 2.00%
Amortisation period: 10
Legal & other fees: 0.50%
46. 46
Leveraged buyout model
Key transactions metrics and returns calculations
Key metrics FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenue growth 6.91% 7.41% 7.52% 7.24% 6.54%
Operating margin 16.79% 17.50% 17.68% 17.75% 18.18%
EBITDA margin 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
Total debt / EBITDA 6.55 x 5.80 x 5.07 x 4.38 x 4.08 x
Net debt / EBITDA 6.42 x 5.68 x 4.96 x 4.27 x 3.97 x
EBITDA / net interest expense 2.88 x 3.13 x 3.47 x 3.89 x 4.38 x
Total debt / Equity: 1.23 x 1.08 x 0.94 x 0.80 x 0.72 x
Total debt / Capital: 0.55 x 0.52 x 0.48 x 0.44 x 0.42 x
Net debt / Equity: 1.20 x 1.06 x 0.92 x 0.78 x 0.71 x
Net debt / Net capital: 0.55 x 0.51 x 0.48 x 0.44 x 0.41 x
Debt service coverage ratio: 0.35 x 0.70 x 0.89 x 1.18 x 1.48 x
Returns FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E
Investor equity (3,274) - - - -
Exit price - - - - - 11,556
Debt - - - - - (3,364)
Total cash flow (3,274) - - - - 8,192
IRR 20.13%
Money on money multiple 2.50 x