1. World Bank Institute in Partnership with Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative
Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Case Study of Kenya
OGARO, Lugard Kaunda
July 4, 2010
CHAPTER 1: DEFINING THE CONTEX
1.1. Kenya’s Country and Natural Hazard Profile
The Republic of Kenya is 582,646 sq km with a total population estimated at 40 million by 2010, GoK
(2009). Kenya’s climate varies from tropical along the coast to arid in the interior, especially in the north
and northeast. Intermittent droughts affect most of the country, Kenya (2007). Less than 15 percent of the
country receives somewhat reliable rainfall of 760 millimeters or more per year, mainly the south-western
highlands near Lake Victoria and the coastal area, which is tempered by monsoon winds. Most of the
country experiences two wet and two dry seasons. The driest month is August, with 24 millimeters
average rainfall, and the wettest is April, the period of “long rains” with average of 266 millimeters. The
hottest month is February, with temperatures of 13°C to 28°C, and the coolest is July, with temperatures
of 11°C to 23°C. The highlands feature a bracing temperate climate, Kenya, (2007).
Kenya’s disaster profile is dominated by droughts, fire, floods, diseases and epidemics. As Kisoyan, P.K.
(2005) notes, apart from the already known disaster in Kenya, there are some newly emerging disasters
including fires, landslides, invasive species and food poisoning. It is evident that the trend is not
encouraging since there has been increase in frequency, increase in magnitude and severity leading to
increase in loss of life and vulnerable population, and increase in loss of property and damage to
infrastructure, Kisoyan, P.K. (2005). All these would only translate into disruption of people’s
livelihoods, destruction of infrastructure, diversion of planned use of resources, interruption of economic
activities, leading to retarded development GoK (2009).
1.1.The Role of the GoK in Disaster Management
To institutionalize mechanisms for addressing disasters, the Government of Kenya (GoK) has formulated
a National Policy on Disaster Management (DM). The policy provides for institutional and operational
framework to facilitate the disintegrated monitoring and evaluation of each disaster, within the multiple
occurrences while recognizing the synergistic components for effective management of the whole disaster
complex, GoK (2009). The policy has also set guidelines including principles for effective disaster
management and the Code of Conduct expected of the different stakeholders involved in disaster
management in Kenya, GoK (2009).
The policy provides that the responsibility of DM lies with Ministry of State for Special Programs
(MOSSP) working under the Office of the President (OP). The various initiatives which work under the
coordination of (MOSSP) include: the Kenya Food Security Meeting (KFSM), Kenya Food Security
Steering Group (KFSSG) and the Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), GoK (2009).
Other participants in disaster management include specialized departments such as the National Disaster
Operation Centre (NDOC), the Police, the Department of Defense, the National Youth Service (NYS),
local Fire Brigades, St John’s Ambulance Service, Kenya Red Cross Society, Occupational Health and
Safety Services, Kenya Wildlife Services and the National Environment Management Agency (NEMA),
GoK (2009). These undertake pro-active and responsive disaster-related activities, including
Environmental Impact Assessments and Audits, ‘search and rescue’, first aid services and evacuation,
anti-terrorism surveillance, law enforcement and crowd control, peace building, conflict resolution
operations and fire fighting, GoK (2009).

2. For ASAL regions, the GoK has set up Arid Lands Resource Management Projects to minimize the
effects of weather-related events by providing climate change information, down to the village level, and
support food security projects. This is because the GoK is now seeing the role of climate change in
extreme events making the country play a prominent role in the climate change debate. For instance, the
first significant declaration on climate change in Africa was made in Kenya in 1990 during the Nairobi
Conference of Global Warming and Climate Change (Ogola, Jason S). It became known as the Nairobi
Declaration on Climate Change. The conference played an important role in introducing African countries
to the international debate on climate change. Subsequent international meetings in Kenya included the
Conference on Policy Options and Responses to Climate Change in Nairobi in 1994. Kenya has been well
represented in most climate change debates at scientific, intergovernmental and non-governmental for a
(Ogola, Jason S).
Other key organizations that have boosted the climate change debate in Kenya Climate Network Africa
(CNA) and the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS), both organizations based in Kenya, and
by the support of the Swedish Environmental Institute (SEI) (Ogola, Jason S). These organizations have
played a leading role in Africa in creating public awareness on climate change issues and in building an
African position on the climate convention (Ogola, Jason S).
CHAPTER 2: CHANGING RISKS
2.1. Evidence of Climate Change in Kenya
Climate change in Kenya can be explained in two extremes. While scientists use models and whether
instruments to simulate climate change, some communities are already explaining the impacts of climate
through cultural and religious believes. The fact still remains that the effects of climate change are being
felt in Kenya just like other countries. Indeed the 1997/8 El Niño phenomenon was explained and
therefore seen as the effect of climate change even by scientists.
As Opondo, Maggie puts it, ASAL regions in Kenya are expected to be the most vulnerable areas to
climate change (increased frequency and severity of both droughts and floods) (UNFCC, 2002 cited in
Opondo, Maggie). She further explains that climate impacts of water resources are largest in the marginal
rainfall areas of the country and that climate variability especially drought occurrences exert severe
impacts on hydro-electric energy resources which is already leading to power rationing in Kenya.
In coverage by IRIN (2010) gives climate change impact testimonies related to drought, livestock deaths
and resource conflict. "We were warned about the current situation by our elders and spiritual leaders
when I was very young. This was about 50 years ago when the Ngishili age groups were born,” Lemeteki
Lerinagato, 70, told IRIN in the Samburu district. He said the Ngishili began to be beset with bad luck
when they started to marry, and that somso (floods) and ngolin (drought) would only end with their
deaths. Similar views were shared by other communities across the arid North of Kenya. “Our people are
dying like wild animals due to hunger, thirst and poverty. Young men are being killed every day. I am
afraid our girls will not find men to marry. It is a curse, nothing else,” said Wario Ndenge, a Gabra elder
from the upper eastern Marsabit region. "Frequent droughts and lack of food are clear signs of the curse.
Women must stop wearing trousers. They should respect their husbands. And the wealthy must help the
poor.” An imam in neighboring Isiolo, Sheikh Yakir, said: “All humanity regardless of colour, tribe or
religion has committed, and unfortunately continues to engage in, sinful acts. The holy books, the Koran
and the Bible, have the most accurate information about all these disasters; we are responsible for all of
our problems.” “We must change, people are losing all their livestock yet they have a chance to prevent
such losses. They must pay zakaat (alms), desist from mixing their herds with those that have been
stolen... Our option now is to continue performing khunud (special prayers) and fast three days every

3. week.” However, Sheikh Yakir has some facts, “rampant destruction of the environment, which is
prohibited in Islam, is also to blame for water scarcity and conflict.”
The human impact on environment is also featured as one cause of climate change. According to
Abdinasir Ali Guled of the Indigenous Resources Exploitation Organization, the changing climate has
increased poverty and environmental degradation as residents turn to charcoal burning to survive after
dropping out of pastoralism. “The youth are resorting to cattle rustling; insecurity has also worsened,”
Guled told IRIN.
2.2. Projected Climate Changes in Kenya:
A study done by Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI, (2009)), made use of downscaled global
models for Kenya, and documented projections indicating that specific elements of whether like
temperature, rainfall and extreme events will be on the rise. At the same time, the impact of climate
change on various sectors was also projected showing mostly that the already known disasters will be
more severe and more frequent. The findings on the climate change projections are entirely based on this
study by SEI, (2009)
2.2.1. Whether elements
Temperature: The projections indicate future increases in mean annual temperature (average monthly
temperatures) of broadly 1 to 3.5 ºC over the range of models by the 2050s (2046 -2065). There will also
be increases in sea level.
Rainfall: Though from the study the changes in precipitation are seen to be more uncertain, all the climate
models show that rainfall regimes will change varying with season and region. Most models project
rainfall will increase on average, on the other hand some models project rainfall reductions in some
months for some areas.
2.2.2. Impacts of Climate Change
Coastal zones: The study estimates potentially large economic costs from climate change in Kenya in the
absence of adaptation. The study has considered the range of projections for sea level rise from the IPCC,
plus an additional scenario based on some of the more recent literature, which reports potentially higher
values. The analysis shows that coastal flooding from sea level rise is estimated to affect 10,000 to 86,000
people a year by 2030 (across the scenarios), as well as leading to coastal wetland loss and coastal
erosion. The associated economic costs in 2030 are estimated to be $7 – 58 million per year (current
prices, no discounting) including flooding. By 2050, these costs could increase to $31 - 313 million per
year.
Health: The study estimates in the absence of adaptation, there could be a potentially large increase in the
rural health burden of malaria in Kenya. This arises because a large part of the rural population lives at
higher elevations, where the disease is currently restricted by temperature. The study has applied a new
malaria risk model, based on altitude, and finds that climate change could increase the rural population at
risk for malaria by between 36% to 89% by the 2050s affecting an extra 2.9 to 6.9 million people (across
the range of temperature projections). The economic costs of this additional burden are estimated at $45
to 99 million annually in terms of direct costs, but rise to $144 - $185 million if full economic costs are
considered (including disutility from pain and suffering). The study has also identified other possible
direct and indirect health effects from climate change.
Agriculture: The study has considered the potential effects in the agricultural sector, though this is one of
the most challenging areas to investigate due to the complexity of analysis and the wide variations with

4. geographical location. Existing studies report that the economic effects for agriculture vary with the range
of climate projections and the analytic models used. Under some futures and with certain models, modest
impacts on agriculture are predicted in the medium term (with some regions even experiencing increased
agricultural yields). However, under other scenarios and other models there are high economic costs
projected. Moreover, a range of additional factors are also important, which are not included in these
assessments, including extreme events, pests and diseases, etc.
Water resources: The study has investigated the potential multi-sectoral effects of water resources and
climate change using a case study for the Tana River basin using a water planning model. The results vary
strongly with the climate projection. The economic impact of climate change (without adaptation) for this
one river basin ranges from a benefit of $2 million to a cost of $66 million for hydropower, irrigation and
drinking water across the range of projections.
Energy: The study has investigated energy demand. The trend in average temperatures will increase the
number of hotter days and increase the cooling burden, particularly in urban areas. These are important
for building comfort levels and potentially effects for health.
2.3. Extreme Events
The information on extreme events (floods and droughts) is much more variable and future projections
vary widely. Many models indicate an intensification of heavy rainfall in the wet seasons, particularly in
some regions and thus greater flood risks. Droughts are likely to continue but the projections are more
varied - some models project an intensification of these events, particularly in some regions, though other
models indicate reductions in severity. The study indicates that even in the absence of climate change, the
economic costs of the periodic floods and droughts that affect Kenya could rise significantly in future
years, due to socio-economic change (population and economic growth). The study has assessed these
changes and finds that in the absence of adaptation, these drivers could increase the costs of events by a
factor of five by 2030, i.e. a periodic large-scale event could have direct economic costs of $5 to 10
billion. A key priority therefore is to increase the resilience of Kenya to cope with these extreme events.
Climate change is likely to further increase the economic costs of these events. Many of the projections
indicate a change in heavy precipitation events for Kenya. These increases in intensity would increase the
economic costs of periodic flood events significantly, because the costs rise very sharply with flood depth
and strength. They would also mean a reduction in the return period of larger events, i.e. more significant
floods would occur more frequently. Even when annualized, these indicate significant increases in
economic costs. The effects on droughts are more uncertain, but the range of model projections does
include changes that would exacerbate existing periodic events for some regions of the country, which
would further increase economic costs.
CHAPTER 3: THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE CHANGING RISKS
3.1. The role of climate information
Just as the Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai recently noted that 15 of the 20 countries most vulnerable to
climate change are in Africa. “We must find the right way to let our people know why. Finding the most
appropriate means to reach people and using their own language is the key,” she told IRIN (2010). In
Kenya, the Kenya Metrological Department (KMD) is the only department with the capacity to capture
whether related information. The KMD hosts the Mt. Kenya Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Station.
The goal of the GAW programme is to monitor, on long term basis the changing composition of the
atmospheric characteristic (Muchemi, Samuel W). Data from the GAW network has been used
exclusively in the activities such as the assessment of ozone depletion, climate change and acid
deposition, (Muchemi, Samuel W). These baseline stations form the only existing operational network
which monitors atmospheric characteristics worldwide (Muchemi, Samuel W). In 1993, the WMO added

5. six global stations in the network in the geographical regions of the world not represented before. The
stations total 22 in the world (Muchemi, Samuel W).
A strategy for enhancement of the capability of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) to render
better service has also been adopted. This includes research on how the state of the Indian, Pacific and
Atlantic oceans affects the climate of Kenya (Muchemi, Samuel W). Strong links between ENSO and the
Kenya climate has been detected. The Sea Surface temperature anomalies in these oceans have also been
found to affect the weather (Muchemi, Samuel W). This understanding has greatly improved the quality
of predictions issued to users. Regarding monitoring climate change, Kenya is hosting a Global
Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station on Mt. Kenya for monitoring background pollution. The Department
is also investing on weather radars that will enable forecasting for coping with the increasing flood
incidences (Muchemi, Samuel W).
One could comfortably say that, in Kenya, the initiatives focusing on CCDR are more biased to
adaptation to the inherent climate change and associated risks thereof. The formation of DMS,
dissemination of weather and climate information to rural communities named the Radio Internet project
(RANET) and a coping mechanism for development of climate reporting in Kenya that resulted in
formation of the Kenya Network of Journalists and Meteorologists (KENJOM) (Muchemi, Samuel W).
This information is very important for farmers preparing for planting season, population residing in the
flood prone areas, government institutions, civil societies and non-governmental institutions active in
disaster management.
Other government mechanisms at the ex ante end of disaster management level include the establishment
of the National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA), which though working under the
umbrella of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources is generally to act as a watch dog to
environmental related issues which result from development and are becoming highly dependent on
climate change.
3.2. Coordination of DRM and Climate Change
Recent disaster events, the successive Reports of the Inter-governmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC),
the recent Climate Change Conference (Nairobi , Nov. 2006), and a recent comprehensive environmental
reconnaissance survey over the whole country have all stressed the central role of Climate Change in any
sustainable planned and integrated National Strategy for Disaster Management, GoK (2009).
Kenya has been playing a prominent role in the climate change debate (Ogola, Jason S). The first
significant declaration on climate change in Africa was made in Kenya in 1990 during the Nairobi
Conference of Global Warming and Climate Change (Ogola, Jason S). It became known as the Nairobi
Declaration on Climate Change. The conference played an important role in introducing African countries
to the international debate on climate change. Subsequent international meetings in Kenya included the
Conference on Policy Options and Responses to Climate Change in Nairobi in 1994, (Ogola, Jason S).
The role of Kenya in the climate change debate has been boosted by the activities of Climate Network
Africa (CNA) and the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS), both organizations based in
Kenya, and by the support of the SEI (Ogola, Jason S). These organizations have played a leading role in
Africa in creating public awareness on climate change issues and in building an African position on the
climate convention (Ogola, Jason S).
With the growing concern on climate change, the Kenyan government established the National Climate
Change Activities Coordinating Committee (NCCACC). Its members are drawn from ministries of
agriculture and forestry, energy, planning, finance, industry, research and technology, municipal councils,
public universities, the private sector and from non-governmental organizations. The NCCACC aims to:

6.  ensure the establishment of a properly networked database on climate change, impact and
response strategies, and research activities;
 identify and facilitate development of national research programmes on climate change, impacts
and responses strategies and options, and advise the government on studies for which funding by
the Global Environment Facility (GEF) or any other international financial mechanisms is
required;
 identify research projects requiring regional and international cooperation;
 identify scientists who could be called upon to undertake specific research in climate change,
impacts and response strategies;
 create public information and awareness;
 assist in the development of human resources, including the preparation of teaching materials on
climate change;
 assist with the preparation of information to the IPCC and other bodies concerned with climate
issues, and ensure the formulation of appropriate national responses to issues which may be
raised at national and international levels;
 advise the government on climate change-related aspects requiring policy guidance;
 advise the government on the implications of commitments under the UNFCCC on climate
change and related issues;
 respond to scientific and other issues on climate change, impacts and respective strategies;
 advise on the selection of participants to national and international meetings related to climate
change.
The task before the NCCACC is heavy, and requires adequate resources and capacity building if it is to
carry out its work effectively and with integrity.
CHAPTER 4: WAY FORWARD FOR GoK
In a forum held in Nairobi attended by experts from Intergovernmental Authority on Development
(IGAD) whose theme was, ‘Seasonal Climate Prediction and information for decision-making’, it was
suggested that if Kenyans used the available weather outlook from the Metrological Department, the
country they could harness water during flooding and use the same to irrigate farms during droughts (East
African Standard, 25th
August 2009 by Peter Orengo). In a way the country needs to identify the
positive/opportunities created by climate change and harness them to offset the opposite effects.
Drought has been a perennial problem due to erratic and un-reliable total failure of rains. This has mostly
led to sometimes no planting and harvest at all. In most cases this has lead to seasonal food shortages and
hunger. Response before, during and after drought disaster have not been single handedly undertaken by
the community but rather with both government and other disaster response stakeholders like the Red
Cross. To address this problem, and as part drought preparedness, there is need to focus on water
conservation such as to increase water storage through desilting of the earth pans and shallow wells;
cleaning of the sand dams and protection of their farms by construction of earth dykes along the season
streams. The GoK has also supported a number of Research and Development (R&D) activities in
development of drought resistant maize, sorghum and tuber varieties. With climate change, the already
developed varieties may not suit the climate of ‘tomorrow’; there is therefore need for continued R&D
activities in ASAL regions.
There is also need for the government to focus more on the ex ante activities which could aggravate the
effects of climate change. It is evident that there are a number of environmental problems facing the
country. These include deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, water shortage and degraded water
quality, poaching, and domestic and industrial pollution, Kenya (2007). At present only 3 percent of the
land remains forested, and an estimated 5,000 hectares of forest are lost each year, Kenya (2007). This

7. loss of forest aggravates erosion, the silting of dams and flooding, and the loss of biodiversity, Kenya,
(2007). The role of NEMA cannot be over-emphasized here as they bear the role of managing
development and its effects on the environment.
For crop production, crop diversification is the most common adaptation measure, particularly in high
potential zones, while water conservation, irrigation and shading/sheltering of crops are the main
adaptation measures in drier regions.
Reference
GoK (2009), Ministry of State for Special Programs, Office of the President-Draft National Policy for
Disaster Management in Kenya, February 2009
IRIN, (2010): KENYA: Extreme weather tests pastoralist perceptions, SAMBURU, 15 April 2010 (IRIN)
Jason S. Ogola, UN-NGLS: Voices from Africa:
http://www.unsystem.org/ngls/documents/publications.en/voices.africa/number6/vfa6.11.htm ,
Accessed on July 3RD
, 2010
Kenya (2007), Library of Congress – Federal Research Division Country Profile: Kenya, June 2007
Kisoyan, P.K. (2005) Kenya: Historical Perspective of Disasters in Kenya Lessons Learned. Egerton
University Njoro,
Muchemi, Samuel W., Adaptation Lessons Learnt in Kenya on Climate Variability and Change, Kenya
Meteorological Department, P.O Box 30259 Nairobi, Kenya. muchemi@meteo.go.ke
Opondo, Maggie (PhD), Department of Geography & Environmental Studies-University of Nairobi:
Increasing Community Resilience to Drought in Makueni District in Kenya: FUNDS: United
Nations Environment Program (UNEP), Executing Agency: African Centre for Technology
Studies (ACTS), International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and Centre for
Science Technology Innovations
SEI, (2009); The Economics of Climate Change in Kenya: Stockholm Environment Institute, Project
Report, 2009: Final Report submitted in advance of COP15, 1 December 2009
The East African Standard, 25th
August 2009 by Peter Orengo
UNDMT (2002), Intergovernmental Authority on Development: UN Disaster Management Team,
Disaster Risk Management Program in the IGAD Region Volume VII Project 6- Improving
preparedness for impact and needs assessment and resource mobilization, June 2002