OECD-ECLAC-PSE EU-LAC Forum

1. The Macroeconomics of Latin America
in the 2000s
Roberto Frenkel
Principal Research Associate at CEDES and Honorary
Professor, University of Buenos Aires

2. GDP growth rates for emerging and developing economies, advanced
economies and Latin American economies
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Latin America and the Caribbean

3. Average rate of growth of per capita GDP (SA and CA)
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SA CA

4. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1-Jan-93
1-Dec-93
1-Nov-94
1-Oct-95
1-Sep-96
1-Aug-97
1-Jul-98
1-Jun-99
1-May-00
1-Apr-01
1-Mar-02
1-Feb-03
1-Jan-04
1-Dec-04
1-Nov-05
1-Oct-06
1-Sep-07
1-Aug-08
1-Jul-09
1-Jun-10
EMBI/EMBIGLOBAL Bps EMBI/EMBI+ Bps
LATIN EMBI+ HY Bps
Sovereign risk premia in emerging markets and Latin America, and US
high yield bonds spread
(In basic points)

5. Current account result, average by subregion (% of GDP)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SA CA

6. Foreign reserves as % of GDP average by subregions
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
SA CA

7. Ratio of foreign debt to total exports, average by subregions
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SA CA

8. Terms of trade indexes for South American countries (2000=100)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRASIL CHILE COLOMBIA ECUADOR PARAGUAY PERÚ URUGUAY VENEZUELA

9. Terms of trade indexes for Central America and Mexico (2000=100)
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
COSTA RICA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA HONDURAS MÉXICO NICARAGUA PANAMÁ

10. Primary fiscal results as percentage of GDP by subregions (non-financial
public sector, average)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SA CA

11. Ratio of the public to GDP (average by subregion, in %)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SA CA

12. Average annual rates of inflation in SA and CA countries (CPI)
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SA Ca

13. Average unemployment rates in SA and CA countries (% of the active
population)
14.00
13.00
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SA CA

14. Average unemployment rates (% of the active population) and proverty
incidence (%of the population) in SA countries
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 2013
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
unemployment poverty

15. Real bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar, South America
(2000=100)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Argentina Bolivia Brasil Chile Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Perú Uruguay Venezuela

16. Real bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar, Central America and
Mexico (2000=100)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras México Nicaragua Panamá República Dominicana

17. Real bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar. 90s mìnimum, average 2002-08 and 2013
(100=2000)
1995 1995
1995
1993
1997
1997
1996
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
Brasil Chile Colombia México Perú Uruguay Argentina
90s mìnimum Average 2002-08 2013

18. Unit labor cost in constant us$. Selected countries
(100=2000)
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Brasil Chile Colombia Perú
Uruguay Argentina México

19. Unit labor cost in constant us$. 90s maximun, 2002-2008 average and 2012
(100=2000)
1997
1997 1997
1994
1995
1995
1994
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Brasil Chile Colombia Perú Uruguay Argentina México
90s Maximum Average 2002-2008 2012

20. ULC% 2002 - 2012 increase: descomposition in explanatory factors
(in %)
160.00%
140.00%
120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
-20.00%
-40.00%
-60.00%
-80.00%
Brasil Chile Colombia Perú Uruguay Argentina México
ULC$ W/P RER Productivity

21. Manufacturing as a % of GDP at constant prices
24.00%
22.00%
20.00%
18.00%
16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Perú Uruguay