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MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage,
Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage
1
Assignment 1
Technical and economic review of four possible
methods of developing East
Mediterranean gas resources through Cyprus
Authors: Supervisor:
Nikolaos G. Felessakis Dr Richard J Barnes
(8653)
MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage,
Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage
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Introduction....................................................................................................................... 4
1. Converting all the gas to LNG in a LNG plant located at Vassilikos and selling
to international markets in Europe & Asia..................................................................... 5
1.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................... 5
1.2 Connection LNG plant and Reserves............................................................... 6
1.3 LNG Plant Configurations.................................................................................... 7
1.3.1 1. Gas preparation........................................................................................ 7
1.3.2 2. Liquefaction............................................................................................... 7
1.3.3 3. Storage and loading................................................................................ 7
1.4 Storage tanks....................................................................................................... 8
1.5 European and Asia Market................................................................................ 8
2. Converting all the gas to LNG in a floating LNG plant and selling to
international markets in Europe and Asia..................................................................... 9
2.1 Introduction to floating LNG plant..................................................................... 9
2.1.1 The FLSO vessel.............................................................................................. 9
2.1.2 The FLNG vessel........................................................................................... 10
2.2 Technical Characteristics................................................................................. 11
3. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Greece and then Italy to tie-in
to the European system................................................................................................. 12
3.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 12
3.1.1 The main processes of compressor station:............................................. 12
3.1.2 Metering Stations......................................................................................... 13
3.1.3 Control Stations and SCADA Systems ...................................................... 13
3.2 Exports by pipeline............................................................................................ 13
3.3 Pipeline network................................................................................................ 15
4. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Turkey and then to tie-in to the
proposed Nabucco pipeline........................................................................................ 16
5. Techno-Economical Analysis ................................................................................ 17
5.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 17
5.2 Analysis of LNG plant and floating LNG......................................................... 18
5.2.1 Advantages of LNG plant.......................................................................... 18
5.2.2 Disadvantages ............................................................................................ 18
5.3 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Greece-Italy................................ 20
5.4 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Turkey........................................... 23
5.5 Resume ................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
5.5.1 The European market gas needs.............................................................. 25
5.5.2 The Asian market gas needs ..................................................................... 26
5.5.3 Gas export Pricing Overview..................................................................... 27
6. Glossary .................................................................................................................... 29
7. Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 30
Figure 1-2 Plant 1 – Minimum Number of Units in LNG Facility Source : (Kotzot et
al., 2007)............................................................................................................................. 7
Figure 2-3 The first FLNG project from Shell “Prelude” .............................................. 10
Figure 3-1 Example of Compressor Station................................................................. 12
Figure 5-2 Total amount of gas available for export ................................................. 18
MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage,
Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage
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Histogram 1 LNG Structure plant & parameters........................................................... 5
Histogram 2 Pipe Line Parameters.................................................................................. 6
Table 5.5.1-1 Increase of demand on EU import........................................................ 25
Table 5.5.2-1 Natural Gas Consumption in non-OECD Asia, 2015-2040 (bcm*) .... 26
Table 5.5.3-1 Natural Gas Prices $/Mmbtu ................................................................. 27
Words Counter
Main document 2347
Index 530
Bibliography 223
References 93
Figures 88
Table 54
Histogram 28
MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage,
Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage
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Introduction
This project aims to analyze four possible options for the natural gas (NG)
development and the export plans of the available NG resources in the Eastern
Mediterranean via the Republic of Cyprus (RoC).
MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage,
Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage
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1. Converting all the gas to LNG in a LNG plant located
at Vassilikos and selling to international markets in
Europe & Asia.
1.1 Introduction
The option of an LNG plant requires several parameters. The following Histogram
1 can briefly describe them (Nobole Energy International, 2013)
Histogram 1 LNG Structure plant & parameters
This analysis is based on the indications of the potential resources coming from
the Aphrodite and Leviathan Reservoirs.
LNG Plant
Analisys
Technical
Analysis
Plant
Configurations
PipeLine
Network's
liquefaction
Facility
Gas
preparation
Liquefanction
Storage &
Loading
Marine
Terminal
Time Requierd
Recuaierd
Area
Economical
Analisys
Project Cost
Total Cost
Pay Back
Period
Price ($/Tcf)
Market
Analisys
Domestic
International
Markets
Asia
Europe
Aveliable
Sources
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1.2 Connection LNG plant and Reserves
The pipeline network is consisted
from the Aphrodite and the
Leviathan reserve. The distance
from the former reserve towards
the plant is approximately 185 km.
Natural gas will be brought ashore
from the offshore fields in pipelines
of approximately 20"-24" diameter.
The calculated quantity for
export is 5 (mtpa) of LNG to the
international markets.
Histogram 2 Pipe Line Parameters
Pipe Line Conection Plan
Availiable Reserves
Aphrodite
Reserve
Leviathan
Reserve
Technical Characteristics
Distance Depth Capacity
Figure 1-1 Scheme offshore pipeline network Source:
(http://nugrohoadi.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/ormen_lange
_high.jpg)
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1.3 LNG Plant Configurations
The liquefaction plant converts the natural gas received from the pipeline into a
liquid suitable for storage. A liquefaction facility consists three main sections:
1.3.1 1. Gas preparation
Any constituents, such as water vapor, which freeze at liquefaction
temperatures, must be removed. Removal of hydrogen sulfide is also required to
meet the LNG product specifications.
1.3.2 2. Liquefaction
The mechanical equipment refrigerates the gas in order to liquefy it. In the
atmospheric pressure, the gas becomes a liquid at – 260° F and its volume
diminishes by a factor of 600.
1.3.3 3. Storage and loading
Insulated tankers retain the NG as a liquid and the loading system transfers the
product from land-based storage to the LNG tankers. Approximately 6 years are
required for the complete design and construction of a liquefaction plant.
Figure 1-2 Plant 1 – Minimum Number of Units in LNG Facility Source : (Kotzot et al., 2007)
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1.4 Storage tanks
The LNG storage tanks are full
containment tanks and there
is sufficient space on the plot
to accommodate storage
tanks for both Phase 1 for the
Aphrodite reserve and 2 for
the Leviathan and probably
for others in the future
The size of each one is
approximately of 160.000 m3.
The majority of the conventional LNG tankers have an average capacity of
160,000 m3.
1.5 European and Asia Market
Cyprus could supply 30% of Europe’s additional energy needs by 2025 1 .
Nevertheless, Asia is also a significant client as its LNG imports are expected to
rise in the future2.
1 (http://www.cyprusprofile.com/en/articles/view/cyprus-could-supply-30-of-europes-additional-energy-needs-
by-2025))
2 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/china-lng-imports-rise-to-record-for-second-month-on-new-
plants.html
Figure 1-3 Full containment tank1
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2. Converting all the gas to LNG in a floating LNG plant
and selling to international markets in Europe and
Asia.
2.1 Introduction to floating LNG plant
Floating liquefied natural gas, allows the production, processing and storage of
the gas at sea. This concept reduces both the project costs and environmental
footprint of an LNG development, because pipelines, compression platforms,
jetty construction and onshore development are not necessary3, while it provides
quicker time-to-market at a fraction of the cost4. Two types of Floating LNG plant
exist: the FLSO and the FLNG.
2.1.1 The FLSO vessel
The FLSO is an autonomous floating structure that does not rely on any shore-
based utilities to function. It is constructed in a shipyard, and then led to its
designated site, where it is integrated
with the gas source. Mooring and
connection infrastructure requirements
are minimal. The FLSO is able to tap
directly into a natural gas source,
liquefy the gas and subsequently
offload the LNG to either a
traditional LNG carrier or in an FSRU’s5.
3 http://www.shell.com.au/aboutshell/who-we-are/shell-au/operations/upstream/prelude.htmlk(Shell, n.d.)
4 http://excelerateenergy.com/floating-liquefaction-flng
5 http://www.petrotechsociety.org/Presentations/LNG%20Programme%20Presentations/Latest%20Trends%20-
%20FSRU%20and%20FSU.pdf
Figure 2-2 Floating Liquefaction Storage
and Offloading (vessel
Figure 2-1 A Floating Storage Regasification Unit
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2.1.2 The FLNG vessel
The FLNG combines the functions of an offshore gas receiving facility, with gas
treatment and liquefaction plant, as well as storage and offloading facilities. The
FLNG has less upfront capital costs, while the offshore installations are
conventionally, more expensive.
Figure 2-3 The first FLNG project from Shell “Prelude” 6
The FLNG pioneers maintain that these units can be 30%-50% cheaper to
construct than onshore facilities. The First FLNG would probably cost between
$10.8bn and $12.6bn and it needs approximately 4 years for construction.
6 Source:http://www.shell.com.au/aboutshell/who-weare/shellau/operations/upstream/prelude/preludes-
maiden-voyage.html
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Figure 2-4 Global LNG Fleet by Capacity, 2012
Sources: PFC Energy Global LNG Service
2.2 Technical Characteristics
The FLNG can store up to 220,000 m3
. Furthermore, it can store up to 90,000
m3
of LPG, and 126,000 m3
of condensate. It can produce at least 5.3 (mtpa)
of liquids:
 3.6 (mtpa) of LNG,
 0.4 (mtpa) of liquefied petroleum gas and
 1.3 (mtpa) of condensate (equivalent to 35,000 bbl/d)
 It needs 15 hours to offload7
 Offload liquid cargo ratio up to 10.000 m3
/hour.
(Arms of innovation, 2014) 7 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvSaN-TLpyc#t=218
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3. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Greece
and then Italy to tie-in to the European system.
3.1 Introduction
The Pipeline network is consisted from pipelines and the compressor station.
Compressor station is keeping the natural flow at the desired rate.
3.1.1 The main processes of compressor station:
 Gas compression,
 Gas chilling/cooling
 Metering Stations
 Control Stations and SCADA Systems
Figure 3-1 Example of Compressor Station8
Natural gas is pressurized as it travels through the interstate pipeline system. To
ensure that the gas continues to flow optimally, it must be periodically
compressed and pushed through pipelines. Over distance, friction and
8 http://www.mackenziegasproject.com/moreInformation/publications/documents/Compressor_Stations.pdf
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geographic elevation differences slow the gas and reduce the pressure, so
compressor stations are placed typically 40 to 70 miles apart along the pipeline
to give the gas a “boost”9. Stations also are equipped with filter separators and
scrubbers that remove any natural gas liquids or solid particles that may have
entered the pipeline.
3.1.2 Metering Stations
These metering stations measure the flow of gas along the pipeline, and allow to
‘track’ natural gas as it flows along the pipeline.
3.1.3 Control Stations and SCADA Systems
To accomplish the monitoring and controlling of the natural gas that is traveling
through the pipeline, centralized gas control stations collect, assimilate, and
manage data received from monitoring and compressor stations all along the
pipeline10.
3.2 Exports by pipeline
This exporting scenario can be a potential choice through the Eastern
Mediterranean Pipeline (EMP). The EMP is proposed to transfer the Israeli and
Cypriot gas to Greece and then to Italy via the IGI-Poseidon pipeline and
consequently into European markets. IGI is the abbreviation for the
"Interconnector Greece-Italy".
9 Source Spectra energy
10 http://naturalgas.org/naturalgas/transport/
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The IGI is considered by the European Union as a Projects of Common
Interest11. This project would be possible to import over 8 bcm/year of NG to Italy,
an amount that represents approximately 10% of the country's consumption.
IGI Poseidon’s subsidiary ICGB signs a MoUC with TAP12 that is aiming at assessing
the technical aspects of the possible interconnection of the two infrastructures.
11 Among the Projects of European Interest (highest level ofpriority recognized by the EU) with decision
1364/2006, as the project was considered compliant to the 5 criteria of article 22 of the EU directiv e 55/2003.
12 http://www.igi-poseidon.com/pannelli/popup.asp?id=715
Figure 3-2 Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline, Source http://www.efylakas.com/archives/19226
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3.3 Pipeline network
According to the original design, the pipeline will consist the following parts13:
a) A 150km underwater section fromthe deposits to Vasiliko, Cyprus,
b) A 650km underwater section fromVasiliko to the shore of eastern Crete,
c) A 400km underwater section fromCrete to Peloponnese,
d) A 260km land section running across Peloponnese,
e) An underwater section crossing the Gulf of Patras and finally,
f) A 220km land section fromthe shore of Aetolia-Acarnania to Thesprotia
The Poseidon pipeline will be consisted form14:
 The compression station in Thesprotia,
 The onshore section is approximately 600 km pipeline between the
compression station and the Greek landfall,
 The offshore pipeline between the Greek and Italian landfalls, is around
207 km.
Nowadays, there is a project under-study about the feasibility for constructing a
pipeline to carry gas fromIsrael and Cyprus15.
13 Source at: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/03/10/depa-studying-gas-pipeline-feasibility-in-se-
mediterranean/#sthash.i8Afa9db.dpuf
14 http://www.igi-poseidon.com/english/pipeline.asp
15 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/greece-cyprus-idUSL6N0M72EC20140310
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4. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Turkey
and then to tie-in to the proposed Nabucco pipeline.
The exporting gas by pipeline scenario fromCyprus to Turkey, requires:
 A 200km pipeline fromAphrodite reserve to Vassilikos
 Another Onshore 60kmpipeline to Kyrenia,
 From Kyrenia an offshore 65kmpipeline to the coast of Turkey,
 Another onshore 200km pipeline to connect with the possible position
off Aydincik to Ceyhan and then
 Approximately 530km onshore pipeline to Nabucco.
Therefore, 990km onshore and 265km offshore pipelines network will be needed,
while it is assumed that the reserve will be at 5bcm using only the Aphrodite
resource. In case part of the Leviathan reserve is also transferred through the
above pipeline, then the sum would be 8bcm, while there would be needed
another 250km of Leviathan-Vasilikopipeline connection.
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5. Techno-Economical Analysis
5.1 Introduction
The following rough estimates the net revenue to be earned from the gas sold as
LNG or via pipeline, respectively, taking into account the major cost and price
factors (Gürel et al., 2013).
Figure 5-1 Eastern Mediterranean Region Potential Markets 1
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5.2 Analysis of LNG plant and floating LNG
The available gas for export will depend firstly on how much is used for domestic
consumption. The CERA of the RoC estimates that 25 bcm will be used until 2035.
This reduces the amount of gas available for export from198 bcm to 173 bcm.
Figure 5-2 Total amount of gas available for export
5.2.1 Advantages of LNG plant
The LNG can be exported anywhere in the world. According to the current
practice the LNG is usually sold under long-term contracts. It should be stressed
that the Asian gas market is growing faster than Europe’s. Thus, selling gas via
LNG in the former market would be a more profitable investment than selling
pipeline gas in Europe. Another advantage is that LNG production, takes place
on a single site, making it less vulnerable to attack than a long pipeline.
Furthermore, the LNG has 600 times smaller volume than the natural gas, allowing
large quantities to be exported at anytime thus, reducing the transport costs16.
5.2.2 Disadvantages
The LNG plant is a very large running and investment cost, which reduces
considerably the revenue that can be generated. In Table 5.2.2-1, a rough
16 Presentation by Pete Wallace, Senior Project Manager andBusiness Development Manager - Tractebel
Engineering, Brussels, ’Construction ofVasilikos LNG Plant: Questions ofFeasibility?’, 17 November 2011 at a
seminar hosted by the European Rim and InvestmentCouncil (ERPIC), 17 Nov ember 2011.
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estimate of the net value of gas sold via LNG is illustrated, taking into account the
major cost and price factors. The tables 5.2.2-3- 5.2.2-4 attempt to capture the
major investment and running costs.
Table 5.2.2-1 Estimated revenue from block 12 gas after running and investment costs17
As the Table 5.2.2-1 shows, after deducting domestic consumption, another
amount must be deducted for LNG power consumption, estimated at 12.5%. This
reduces the gas available for sale to 152 bcm. At prevailing prices for LNG in
17 Sources: Reuters (LNG prices); Pete Wallace, Tractebel Engineering(pipeline/km costs);
Minister Sylikiotis (LNG plant cost); DEFA (distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko and pipeline cost).
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Europe, the gas worth $63 billion before the investment costs. The next major
investment cost is the construction of a single-train LNG plant, estimated by the
government at €7 to €10 billion18 . Finally, the pipeline cost from Block12 to
Vassilikos reaches the $2 billion19. By adding the exploration pipeline and the
construction costs the total investment cost for an LNG plant is around $12.6
billion. After deducting the gas losses for domestic consumption and operating
and investment costs, the net revenue of the gas in Block 12 sold via LNG would
be just above $50 billion.
A floating LNG plant, a fairly new technology, could be approximately 30% more
expensivefor construction than an onshore plant20.
The second disadvantage is that it takes many years to build a plant and that has
a negative impact on NPV21. Thirdly, shipping the LNG is an energy-intensive
business, with each day of shipping consuming around 0.1-0.25% of the cargo,
according to some estimates. This reduces the profits when the LNG is shipped to
Asian markets.
The current plan in Cyprus, is to build a single-train plant of 5Mtpa, partly because
more than 7 tcf gas is needed to run anything larger. A larger plant could be built
if Israel decided to use an LNG plant in Cyprus to exploit its reserves in Leviathan.
Additionally, the RoC might have to wait for additional discoveries in its EEZ.
5.3 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Greece-Italy
To be viable, a long pipeline of 1200km would need a very large amount of gas.
DEPA has said that the pipeline would have a capacity of 8 bcm/year. Using all
18 Minister of Commerce, Neoclis Syliokiotis, speakingat a seminar organized by the EuropeanRim Policy and
Inv estment Council (ERPIC) on 15 May 2012.
19 Presentation by DEFAChairman Costas Ioannouat the LevantEnergy Forum, 26 June 2012, slide 13.
20 ERPIC presentation by Pete Wallace, 17 Nov ember 2011 Source
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiHVzA9E2PY
21 Net present v alue is a way ofaccountingfor the ‘time v alue ofmoney’. Thus, a dollar earned todayis worth
more than a dollar earned in fiv e years’ time because it can be investedandearn a return.
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of the gas available in the RoC’s Block 12 would be enough to keep the pipeline
running for around 20 years at full capacity. The obstacle to Cyprus-Greece
pipeline is the investment cost. Before investment but after an estimated 5% loss
in transit, gas sold via pipeline to Greece would be worth $74 billion at today’s
prices22. The tender form Delek is to supply approximately the amount 0.9 Bcm of
NG to Cyprus per year23.
22 Prices of Russian gas at the German border
23 Delek: Submission of Offer to the Public Tender for the Supply ofNatural Gas to Cyprus http://www.4-
traders.com/DELEK-GROUP-LTD-6494439/news/Delek--Submission-of-Offer-to-the-Public-Tender-for-the-Supply-of-
Natural-Gas-to-Cyprus-18341876/
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Table 5.2.2-2 Estimated revenue from gas sold via pipeline to Greece24
According to the estimates in Table 5.2.2-2, the additional investment cost of a
pipeline from Vassilikos to Greece would be almost $17 billion. This would reduce
the net revenue that could be generated to $54.5 billion. Thus, it is little different in
value fromthe $50bn gained from exporting gas as LNG.
24 sources: index.mundi (natural gas prices); DEFA (distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko);
DEPA (distances from Cyprus to Greece); Quantum Energy (likely depth ofpipeline).
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5.4 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Turkey
The main advantage of the pipeline gas from Cyprus to Turkey is that investment
costs, at least for shorter pipelines of this length, are considerably lower than the
construction of LNG facilities. This leads to considerably more net revenue after
investment.
Table 5.2.2-3 Estimated revenue from gas sold via pipeline to Turkey
According to the estimates in Table 5.2.2-3, the gross value of gas via pipeline
after domestic consumption and losses in transit is $74 billion—the same as a
pipeline to Greece. This is already $11 billion higher than the revenue available
after power consumption from an LNG plant. Moreover, the investment costs are
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far lower, at around $4.8 billion, compared with $12.7 billion for the LNG plant.
Thus, the net revenue that can be generated by gas sold via pipeline to Turkey
comes out at $69 billion, compared with $55 billion for a pipeline to Greece and
$50 billion for an LNG plant. The second advantage of piped gas is that it takes
less time to build than an LNG plant.
Table 5.2.2-4 Revenue generated by different export options25
25 sources: Natural gas prices from index. mundi; LNG prices from Reuters; pipeline costs from Pete Wallace,
Tractebel Engineering; LNG plant cost from Minister Sylikiotis; distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko from DEFA;
distance from Cyprus to Greece from DEPA; pipeline depth to Greece from Quantum Energy figures on
electricity cable.
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5.5 Conclusion
5.5.1 The European market gas needs
The European context26 sees a relentless increase in energy consumption. The
current data together with the market forecasts27 can be characterized as
follows:
 the European gas demand is expected to grow from the present 558
bcm/annum to 720 bcm/annum in 2020,
 The Europe's dependence on imports will continue to rise, from 45% of its
requirements at present to approximately 65% by 2020.
Table 5.5.1-1 Increase of demand on EU import28
26 Reference here is to the so-called EU 30, which includes, in additionto the member states ofthe European
Union, also Norway, SwitzerlandandTurkey.
27 Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook, BP Statistical Review, ENI, IHS, CERA, Edison
28 Source: http://www.igi-poseidon.com/english/strategicvalue.asp
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5.5.2 The Asian market gas needs
A clear view for the Asian energy needs for the future is that the LNG imports
increased about 77% from a year ago to 2.65 mmt29. Furthermore, China will have
the greatest increase in demand, with its consumption rising from around 158
bcm in 2015 to 495 bcm in 204030.
Table 5.5.2-1 Natural Gas Consumption in non-OECD Asia, 2015-2040 (bcm*)31
29 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/china-lng-imports-rise-to-record-for-second-month-on-new-
plants.html
30 "Annual Energy Outlook2013 Table: World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case,"Energy
Information Administration, accessed September 5, 2013,
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=IEO2013&subject=0-IEO2013&table=6-IEO2013&region=0-
0&cases=Reference-d041117.
31 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook2013.
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5.5.3 Gas export Pricing Overview
LNG prices in Europe were estimated in 2012 at $11-12/mbtu and Japanese
benchmark prices are between $15-17/mbtu. If Delek and Noble decide to
liquefy 10 bcm/y of their gas in Vassilikos the net profit margins of the LNG option
for the second LNG train can be several times higher than the $1-$1.75/mbtu
Cypriot and Israeli exporters would hope to get from selling their gas to Turkey.
(Tsakiris, 2013)
Table 5.5.3-1 Natural Gas Prices $/Mmbtu 32
32 BP Statistical Review ofWorld Energy June 2013
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Analyzing the overall cost for the development of the Aphrodite gas33 through an
LNG terminal in Vassiliks is around $8-$9/mbtu, then gas exports to Europe can
generate a net profit of approximately $2.5-$3/mbtu. If export contracts to Asian
markets are closed by Delek/Noble within 2015-2016 then the potential profit
margins could high as $7-$8/mbtu. (ibid.) An export strategy equally dividing
Cypriot LNG exports between Europe and Asia- would generate an average net
profit for LNG exports at $5.125/mbtu compared to a best estimate of $3/mbtu
for the Turkish pipeline option. Additionally, sending all Cypriot gas exports to
Turkey would essentially create a monopsony relationship that is by definition
against the interests of any exporter even if there were no political impediments
governing this commercial relationship. That is why it is more likely that the
solution of LNG plant and at least 50% of the projected exports from Aphrodite
and Leviathan would go to Asian markets (ibid.)
33 Actually in strict techno-economical terms ev enAphrodite’s reserves are still not prov en. Whatwe have are
relativ ely accurate estimates ofprospective reserves thatwill be fully v erified after the productiontest whichwill
follow the completion of the second appraisal wells thatwill drilled in the second halfof2014.
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6. Glossary
tcm = trillion cubic meters
FID = final investment decision
tcf = trillion cubic feet
RoC = Republic of Cyprus
MTPA = million tones per annum
MT = million tones
EEZ = ExclusiveEconomic Zone
MoUC = Memorandumof
Understanding and Cooperation
mmcm = million cubic meters
mmBtu = million British thermal units
mcm = thousand cubic meters
LNG Liquefied natural gas
km = Kilometer
cm = cubic meters
CERA = Cyprus Energy Regulatory
Authority
bcm = billion cubic meters
DEFA = Natural Gas Public Company
NPV = net present value
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7. Bibliography
Arms of innovation. 2014. [Film] France: dsp an endemol company.
BBCnews, 2013. "Shell's record-breaking Prelude takes to the water". [Online]
Available at:
https://web.archive.org/web/20131204184139/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/tech
nology-25213845 [Accessed 04 December 2013].
Bp, 2013. con Fact. [Online] Available at: www.car.gr.
Briggs, et al., 2013. LNG LIQUEFACTION PLANT. In “Poten”, ed. MASTER PLAN OF
THE VASILIKOS AREA. NIcosia: “Poten” & "ALA". p.29.
Chartered , P., 1992. http://www.the-edi.co.uk/. [Online] (7th) Available at:
http://www.the-edi.co.uk/downloads/eia_spring_2007.pdf [Accessed 19 April
2007].
Delek Group, 2014. [Online] Available at:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0C
CsQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fphx.corporate-
ir.net%2FExternal.File%3Fitem%3DUGFyZW50SUQ9NTM5MDYxfENoaWxkSUQ9MjI4NT
kzfFR5cGU9MQ%3D%3D%26t%3D1&ei=0lduU-
WqMsG1PcS0gMgD&usg=AFQjCNGDcT79dYdH6cavDiXX5Q2neeM4tQ&bvm=bv.
66330100,d.ZWU [Accessed April 2014].
International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) , n.d.
http://www.environmental-mainstreaming.org. [Online] Available at:
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mainstreaming.org/documents/EM%20Profile%20No%201%20-
%20EIA%20(6%20Oct%2009).pdf.
Kotzot, , Durr, , Coyle, & Caswell, , 2007. LNG LIQUEFACTION — NOT ALL PLANTS
ARE CREATED EQUAL. [Online] KBR Available at:
http://www.kbr.com/Newsroom/Publications/LNG/ [Accessed 2007].
MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage,
Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage
31
National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal Environment Agency,
2002. https://www.gov.uk/. [Online] Environment Agency Available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file
/296952/geho0411btrf-e-e.pdf [Accessed 01 May 2002]. A handbook for scoping
projects.
Nobole Energy International, 2013. http://www.mcit.gov.cy. [Online] Available at:
http://www.mcit.gov.cy/mcit/mcit.nsf/All/11FFCD876C06B58CC2257C7700255D1
8/$file/04-Vasilikos%20Master%20Plan%202013_Executive%20Summary%20-
%20Eng.pdf [Accessed 1 Octomber 2013].
Managment, E.R., 2001. http://ec.europa.eu/. [Online] Available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/eia-guidelines/g-scoping-full-text.pdf
[Accessed 19 April 2014].
Paltsev, et al., 2013. Natural Gas Monetization Pathways for Cyprus. Economics of
Project Development Options. Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of
Technology MIT Energy Initiative, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cyprus
Institute.
Shell, n.d. Prelude FLNG. [Online] Available at:
http://www.shell.com.au/aboutshell/who-we-are/shell-
au/operations/upstream/prelude.html [Accessed 2 May 2014].
Tsakiris, D.T., 2013. www.eliamep.gr/en. [Online] Available at:
http://www.eliamep.gr/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/policy-paper.pdf
[Accessed November 2013].

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MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage Technical and economic review

  • 1. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 1 Assignment 1 Technical and economic review of four possible methods of developing East Mediterranean gas resources through Cyprus Authors: Supervisor: Nikolaos G. Felessakis Dr Richard J Barnes (8653)
  • 2. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 2 Introduction....................................................................................................................... 4 1. Converting all the gas to LNG in a LNG plant located at Vassilikos and selling to international markets in Europe & Asia..................................................................... 5 1.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Connection LNG plant and Reserves............................................................... 6 1.3 LNG Plant Configurations.................................................................................... 7 1.3.1 1. Gas preparation........................................................................................ 7 1.3.2 2. Liquefaction............................................................................................... 7 1.3.3 3. Storage and loading................................................................................ 7 1.4 Storage tanks....................................................................................................... 8 1.5 European and Asia Market................................................................................ 8 2. Converting all the gas to LNG in a floating LNG plant and selling to international markets in Europe and Asia..................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction to floating LNG plant..................................................................... 9 2.1.1 The FLSO vessel.............................................................................................. 9 2.1.2 The FLNG vessel........................................................................................... 10 2.2 Technical Characteristics................................................................................. 11 3. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Greece and then Italy to tie-in to the European system................................................................................................. 12 3.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 12 3.1.1 The main processes of compressor station:............................................. 12 3.1.2 Metering Stations......................................................................................... 13 3.1.3 Control Stations and SCADA Systems ...................................................... 13 3.2 Exports by pipeline............................................................................................ 13 3.3 Pipeline network................................................................................................ 15 4. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Turkey and then to tie-in to the proposed Nabucco pipeline........................................................................................ 16 5. Techno-Economical Analysis ................................................................................ 17 5.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 17 5.2 Analysis of LNG plant and floating LNG......................................................... 18 5.2.1 Advantages of LNG plant.......................................................................... 18 5.2.2 Disadvantages ............................................................................................ 18 5.3 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Greece-Italy................................ 20 5.4 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Turkey........................................... 23 5.5 Resume ................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.5.1 The European market gas needs.............................................................. 25 5.5.2 The Asian market gas needs ..................................................................... 26 5.5.3 Gas export Pricing Overview..................................................................... 27 6. Glossary .................................................................................................................... 29 7. Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 30 Figure 1-2 Plant 1 – Minimum Number of Units in LNG Facility Source : (Kotzot et al., 2007)............................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 2-3 The first FLNG project from Shell “Prelude” .............................................. 10 Figure 3-1 Example of Compressor Station................................................................. 12 Figure 5-2 Total amount of gas available for export ................................................. 18
  • 3. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 3 Histogram 1 LNG Structure plant & parameters........................................................... 5 Histogram 2 Pipe Line Parameters.................................................................................. 6 Table 5.5.1-1 Increase of demand on EU import........................................................ 25 Table 5.5.2-1 Natural Gas Consumption in non-OECD Asia, 2015-2040 (bcm*) .... 26 Table 5.5.3-1 Natural Gas Prices $/Mmbtu ................................................................. 27 Words Counter Main document 2347 Index 530 Bibliography 223 References 93 Figures 88 Table 54 Histogram 28
  • 4. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 4 Introduction This project aims to analyze four possible options for the natural gas (NG) development and the export plans of the available NG resources in the Eastern Mediterranean via the Republic of Cyprus (RoC).
  • 5. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 5 1. Converting all the gas to LNG in a LNG plant located at Vassilikos and selling to international markets in Europe & Asia. 1.1 Introduction The option of an LNG plant requires several parameters. The following Histogram 1 can briefly describe them (Nobole Energy International, 2013) Histogram 1 LNG Structure plant & parameters This analysis is based on the indications of the potential resources coming from the Aphrodite and Leviathan Reservoirs. LNG Plant Analisys Technical Analysis Plant Configurations PipeLine Network's liquefaction Facility Gas preparation Liquefanction Storage & Loading Marine Terminal Time Requierd Recuaierd Area Economical Analisys Project Cost Total Cost Pay Back Period Price ($/Tcf) Market Analisys Domestic International Markets Asia Europe Aveliable Sources
  • 6. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 6 1.2 Connection LNG plant and Reserves The pipeline network is consisted from the Aphrodite and the Leviathan reserve. The distance from the former reserve towards the plant is approximately 185 km. Natural gas will be brought ashore from the offshore fields in pipelines of approximately 20"-24" diameter. The calculated quantity for export is 5 (mtpa) of LNG to the international markets. Histogram 2 Pipe Line Parameters Pipe Line Conection Plan Availiable Reserves Aphrodite Reserve Leviathan Reserve Technical Characteristics Distance Depth Capacity Figure 1-1 Scheme offshore pipeline network Source: (http://nugrohoadi.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/ormen_lange _high.jpg)
  • 7. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 7 1.3 LNG Plant Configurations The liquefaction plant converts the natural gas received from the pipeline into a liquid suitable for storage. A liquefaction facility consists three main sections: 1.3.1 1. Gas preparation Any constituents, such as water vapor, which freeze at liquefaction temperatures, must be removed. Removal of hydrogen sulfide is also required to meet the LNG product specifications. 1.3.2 2. Liquefaction The mechanical equipment refrigerates the gas in order to liquefy it. In the atmospheric pressure, the gas becomes a liquid at – 260° F and its volume diminishes by a factor of 600. 1.3.3 3. Storage and loading Insulated tankers retain the NG as a liquid and the loading system transfers the product from land-based storage to the LNG tankers. Approximately 6 years are required for the complete design and construction of a liquefaction plant. Figure 1-2 Plant 1 – Minimum Number of Units in LNG Facility Source : (Kotzot et al., 2007)
  • 8. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 8 1.4 Storage tanks The LNG storage tanks are full containment tanks and there is sufficient space on the plot to accommodate storage tanks for both Phase 1 for the Aphrodite reserve and 2 for the Leviathan and probably for others in the future The size of each one is approximately of 160.000 m3. The majority of the conventional LNG tankers have an average capacity of 160,000 m3. 1.5 European and Asia Market Cyprus could supply 30% of Europe’s additional energy needs by 2025 1 . Nevertheless, Asia is also a significant client as its LNG imports are expected to rise in the future2. 1 (http://www.cyprusprofile.com/en/articles/view/cyprus-could-supply-30-of-europes-additional-energy-needs- by-2025)) 2 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/china-lng-imports-rise-to-record-for-second-month-on-new- plants.html Figure 1-3 Full containment tank1
  • 9. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 9 2. Converting all the gas to LNG in a floating LNG plant and selling to international markets in Europe and Asia. 2.1 Introduction to floating LNG plant Floating liquefied natural gas, allows the production, processing and storage of the gas at sea. This concept reduces both the project costs and environmental footprint of an LNG development, because pipelines, compression platforms, jetty construction and onshore development are not necessary3, while it provides quicker time-to-market at a fraction of the cost4. Two types of Floating LNG plant exist: the FLSO and the FLNG. 2.1.1 The FLSO vessel The FLSO is an autonomous floating structure that does not rely on any shore- based utilities to function. It is constructed in a shipyard, and then led to its designated site, where it is integrated with the gas source. Mooring and connection infrastructure requirements are minimal. The FLSO is able to tap directly into a natural gas source, liquefy the gas and subsequently offload the LNG to either a traditional LNG carrier or in an FSRU’s5. 3 http://www.shell.com.au/aboutshell/who-we-are/shell-au/operations/upstream/prelude.htmlk(Shell, n.d.) 4 http://excelerateenergy.com/floating-liquefaction-flng 5 http://www.petrotechsociety.org/Presentations/LNG%20Programme%20Presentations/Latest%20Trends%20- %20FSRU%20and%20FSU.pdf Figure 2-2 Floating Liquefaction Storage and Offloading (vessel Figure 2-1 A Floating Storage Regasification Unit
  • 10. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 10 2.1.2 The FLNG vessel The FLNG combines the functions of an offshore gas receiving facility, with gas treatment and liquefaction plant, as well as storage and offloading facilities. The FLNG has less upfront capital costs, while the offshore installations are conventionally, more expensive. Figure 2-3 The first FLNG project from Shell “Prelude” 6 The FLNG pioneers maintain that these units can be 30%-50% cheaper to construct than onshore facilities. The First FLNG would probably cost between $10.8bn and $12.6bn and it needs approximately 4 years for construction. 6 Source:http://www.shell.com.au/aboutshell/who-weare/shellau/operations/upstream/prelude/preludes- maiden-voyage.html
  • 11. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 11 Figure 2-4 Global LNG Fleet by Capacity, 2012 Sources: PFC Energy Global LNG Service 2.2 Technical Characteristics The FLNG can store up to 220,000 m3 . Furthermore, it can store up to 90,000 m3 of LPG, and 126,000 m3 of condensate. It can produce at least 5.3 (mtpa) of liquids:  3.6 (mtpa) of LNG,  0.4 (mtpa) of liquefied petroleum gas and  1.3 (mtpa) of condensate (equivalent to 35,000 bbl/d)  It needs 15 hours to offload7  Offload liquid cargo ratio up to 10.000 m3 /hour. (Arms of innovation, 2014) 7 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvSaN-TLpyc#t=218
  • 12. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 12 3. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Greece and then Italy to tie-in to the European system. 3.1 Introduction The Pipeline network is consisted from pipelines and the compressor station. Compressor station is keeping the natural flow at the desired rate. 3.1.1 The main processes of compressor station:  Gas compression,  Gas chilling/cooling  Metering Stations  Control Stations and SCADA Systems Figure 3-1 Example of Compressor Station8 Natural gas is pressurized as it travels through the interstate pipeline system. To ensure that the gas continues to flow optimally, it must be periodically compressed and pushed through pipelines. Over distance, friction and 8 http://www.mackenziegasproject.com/moreInformation/publications/documents/Compressor_Stations.pdf
  • 13. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 13 geographic elevation differences slow the gas and reduce the pressure, so compressor stations are placed typically 40 to 70 miles apart along the pipeline to give the gas a “boost”9. Stations also are equipped with filter separators and scrubbers that remove any natural gas liquids or solid particles that may have entered the pipeline. 3.1.2 Metering Stations These metering stations measure the flow of gas along the pipeline, and allow to ‘track’ natural gas as it flows along the pipeline. 3.1.3 Control Stations and SCADA Systems To accomplish the monitoring and controlling of the natural gas that is traveling through the pipeline, centralized gas control stations collect, assimilate, and manage data received from monitoring and compressor stations all along the pipeline10. 3.2 Exports by pipeline This exporting scenario can be a potential choice through the Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline (EMP). The EMP is proposed to transfer the Israeli and Cypriot gas to Greece and then to Italy via the IGI-Poseidon pipeline and consequently into European markets. IGI is the abbreviation for the "Interconnector Greece-Italy". 9 Source Spectra energy 10 http://naturalgas.org/naturalgas/transport/
  • 14. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 14 The IGI is considered by the European Union as a Projects of Common Interest11. This project would be possible to import over 8 bcm/year of NG to Italy, an amount that represents approximately 10% of the country's consumption. IGI Poseidon’s subsidiary ICGB signs a MoUC with TAP12 that is aiming at assessing the technical aspects of the possible interconnection of the two infrastructures. 11 Among the Projects of European Interest (highest level ofpriority recognized by the EU) with decision 1364/2006, as the project was considered compliant to the 5 criteria of article 22 of the EU directiv e 55/2003. 12 http://www.igi-poseidon.com/pannelli/popup.asp?id=715 Figure 3-2 Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline, Source http://www.efylakas.com/archives/19226
  • 15. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 15 3.3 Pipeline network According to the original design, the pipeline will consist the following parts13: a) A 150km underwater section fromthe deposits to Vasiliko, Cyprus, b) A 650km underwater section fromVasiliko to the shore of eastern Crete, c) A 400km underwater section fromCrete to Peloponnese, d) A 260km land section running across Peloponnese, e) An underwater section crossing the Gulf of Patras and finally, f) A 220km land section fromthe shore of Aetolia-Acarnania to Thesprotia The Poseidon pipeline will be consisted form14:  The compression station in Thesprotia,  The onshore section is approximately 600 km pipeline between the compression station and the Greek landfall,  The offshore pipeline between the Greek and Italian landfalls, is around 207 km. Nowadays, there is a project under-study about the feasibility for constructing a pipeline to carry gas fromIsrael and Cyprus15. 13 Source at: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/03/10/depa-studying-gas-pipeline-feasibility-in-se- mediterranean/#sthash.i8Afa9db.dpuf 14 http://www.igi-poseidon.com/english/pipeline.asp 15 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/greece-cyprus-idUSL6N0M72EC20140310
  • 16. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 16 4. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Turkey and then to tie-in to the proposed Nabucco pipeline. The exporting gas by pipeline scenario fromCyprus to Turkey, requires:  A 200km pipeline fromAphrodite reserve to Vassilikos  Another Onshore 60kmpipeline to Kyrenia,  From Kyrenia an offshore 65kmpipeline to the coast of Turkey,  Another onshore 200km pipeline to connect with the possible position off Aydincik to Ceyhan and then  Approximately 530km onshore pipeline to Nabucco. Therefore, 990km onshore and 265km offshore pipelines network will be needed, while it is assumed that the reserve will be at 5bcm using only the Aphrodite resource. In case part of the Leviathan reserve is also transferred through the above pipeline, then the sum would be 8bcm, while there would be needed another 250km of Leviathan-Vasilikopipeline connection.
  • 17. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 17 5. Techno-Economical Analysis 5.1 Introduction The following rough estimates the net revenue to be earned from the gas sold as LNG or via pipeline, respectively, taking into account the major cost and price factors (Gürel et al., 2013). Figure 5-1 Eastern Mediterranean Region Potential Markets 1
  • 18. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 18 5.2 Analysis of LNG plant and floating LNG The available gas for export will depend firstly on how much is used for domestic consumption. The CERA of the RoC estimates that 25 bcm will be used until 2035. This reduces the amount of gas available for export from198 bcm to 173 bcm. Figure 5-2 Total amount of gas available for export 5.2.1 Advantages of LNG plant The LNG can be exported anywhere in the world. According to the current practice the LNG is usually sold under long-term contracts. It should be stressed that the Asian gas market is growing faster than Europe’s. Thus, selling gas via LNG in the former market would be a more profitable investment than selling pipeline gas in Europe. Another advantage is that LNG production, takes place on a single site, making it less vulnerable to attack than a long pipeline. Furthermore, the LNG has 600 times smaller volume than the natural gas, allowing large quantities to be exported at anytime thus, reducing the transport costs16. 5.2.2 Disadvantages The LNG plant is a very large running and investment cost, which reduces considerably the revenue that can be generated. In Table 5.2.2-1, a rough 16 Presentation by Pete Wallace, Senior Project Manager andBusiness Development Manager - Tractebel Engineering, Brussels, ’Construction ofVasilikos LNG Plant: Questions ofFeasibility?’, 17 November 2011 at a seminar hosted by the European Rim and InvestmentCouncil (ERPIC), 17 Nov ember 2011.
  • 19. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 19 estimate of the net value of gas sold via LNG is illustrated, taking into account the major cost and price factors. The tables 5.2.2-3- 5.2.2-4 attempt to capture the major investment and running costs. Table 5.2.2-1 Estimated revenue from block 12 gas after running and investment costs17 As the Table 5.2.2-1 shows, after deducting domestic consumption, another amount must be deducted for LNG power consumption, estimated at 12.5%. This reduces the gas available for sale to 152 bcm. At prevailing prices for LNG in 17 Sources: Reuters (LNG prices); Pete Wallace, Tractebel Engineering(pipeline/km costs); Minister Sylikiotis (LNG plant cost); DEFA (distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko and pipeline cost).
  • 20. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 20 Europe, the gas worth $63 billion before the investment costs. The next major investment cost is the construction of a single-train LNG plant, estimated by the government at €7 to €10 billion18 . Finally, the pipeline cost from Block12 to Vassilikos reaches the $2 billion19. By adding the exploration pipeline and the construction costs the total investment cost for an LNG plant is around $12.6 billion. After deducting the gas losses for domestic consumption and operating and investment costs, the net revenue of the gas in Block 12 sold via LNG would be just above $50 billion. A floating LNG plant, a fairly new technology, could be approximately 30% more expensivefor construction than an onshore plant20. The second disadvantage is that it takes many years to build a plant and that has a negative impact on NPV21. Thirdly, shipping the LNG is an energy-intensive business, with each day of shipping consuming around 0.1-0.25% of the cargo, according to some estimates. This reduces the profits when the LNG is shipped to Asian markets. The current plan in Cyprus, is to build a single-train plant of 5Mtpa, partly because more than 7 tcf gas is needed to run anything larger. A larger plant could be built if Israel decided to use an LNG plant in Cyprus to exploit its reserves in Leviathan. Additionally, the RoC might have to wait for additional discoveries in its EEZ. 5.3 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Greece-Italy To be viable, a long pipeline of 1200km would need a very large amount of gas. DEPA has said that the pipeline would have a capacity of 8 bcm/year. Using all 18 Minister of Commerce, Neoclis Syliokiotis, speakingat a seminar organized by the EuropeanRim Policy and Inv estment Council (ERPIC) on 15 May 2012. 19 Presentation by DEFAChairman Costas Ioannouat the LevantEnergy Forum, 26 June 2012, slide 13. 20 ERPIC presentation by Pete Wallace, 17 Nov ember 2011 Source http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiHVzA9E2PY 21 Net present v alue is a way ofaccountingfor the ‘time v alue ofmoney’. Thus, a dollar earned todayis worth more than a dollar earned in fiv e years’ time because it can be investedandearn a return.
  • 21. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 21 of the gas available in the RoC’s Block 12 would be enough to keep the pipeline running for around 20 years at full capacity. The obstacle to Cyprus-Greece pipeline is the investment cost. Before investment but after an estimated 5% loss in transit, gas sold via pipeline to Greece would be worth $74 billion at today’s prices22. The tender form Delek is to supply approximately the amount 0.9 Bcm of NG to Cyprus per year23. 22 Prices of Russian gas at the German border 23 Delek: Submission of Offer to the Public Tender for the Supply ofNatural Gas to Cyprus http://www.4- traders.com/DELEK-GROUP-LTD-6494439/news/Delek--Submission-of-Offer-to-the-Public-Tender-for-the-Supply-of- Natural-Gas-to-Cyprus-18341876/
  • 22. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 22 Table 5.2.2-2 Estimated revenue from gas sold via pipeline to Greece24 According to the estimates in Table 5.2.2-2, the additional investment cost of a pipeline from Vassilikos to Greece would be almost $17 billion. This would reduce the net revenue that could be generated to $54.5 billion. Thus, it is little different in value fromthe $50bn gained from exporting gas as LNG. 24 sources: index.mundi (natural gas prices); DEFA (distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko); DEPA (distances from Cyprus to Greece); Quantum Energy (likely depth ofpipeline).
  • 23. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 23 5.4 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Turkey The main advantage of the pipeline gas from Cyprus to Turkey is that investment costs, at least for shorter pipelines of this length, are considerably lower than the construction of LNG facilities. This leads to considerably more net revenue after investment. Table 5.2.2-3 Estimated revenue from gas sold via pipeline to Turkey According to the estimates in Table 5.2.2-3, the gross value of gas via pipeline after domestic consumption and losses in transit is $74 billion—the same as a pipeline to Greece. This is already $11 billion higher than the revenue available after power consumption from an LNG plant. Moreover, the investment costs are
  • 24. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 24 far lower, at around $4.8 billion, compared with $12.7 billion for the LNG plant. Thus, the net revenue that can be generated by gas sold via pipeline to Turkey comes out at $69 billion, compared with $55 billion for a pipeline to Greece and $50 billion for an LNG plant. The second advantage of piped gas is that it takes less time to build than an LNG plant. Table 5.2.2-4 Revenue generated by different export options25 25 sources: Natural gas prices from index. mundi; LNG prices from Reuters; pipeline costs from Pete Wallace, Tractebel Engineering; LNG plant cost from Minister Sylikiotis; distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko from DEFA; distance from Cyprus to Greece from DEPA; pipeline depth to Greece from Quantum Energy figures on electricity cable.
  • 25. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 25 5.5 Conclusion 5.5.1 The European market gas needs The European context26 sees a relentless increase in energy consumption. The current data together with the market forecasts27 can be characterized as follows:  the European gas demand is expected to grow from the present 558 bcm/annum to 720 bcm/annum in 2020,  The Europe's dependence on imports will continue to rise, from 45% of its requirements at present to approximately 65% by 2020. Table 5.5.1-1 Increase of demand on EU import28 26 Reference here is to the so-called EU 30, which includes, in additionto the member states ofthe European Union, also Norway, SwitzerlandandTurkey. 27 Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook, BP Statistical Review, ENI, IHS, CERA, Edison 28 Source: http://www.igi-poseidon.com/english/strategicvalue.asp
  • 26. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 26 5.5.2 The Asian market gas needs A clear view for the Asian energy needs for the future is that the LNG imports increased about 77% from a year ago to 2.65 mmt29. Furthermore, China will have the greatest increase in demand, with its consumption rising from around 158 bcm in 2015 to 495 bcm in 204030. Table 5.5.2-1 Natural Gas Consumption in non-OECD Asia, 2015-2040 (bcm*)31 29 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/china-lng-imports-rise-to-record-for-second-month-on-new- plants.html 30 "Annual Energy Outlook2013 Table: World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case,"Energy Information Administration, accessed September 5, 2013, http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=IEO2013&subject=0-IEO2013&table=6-IEO2013&region=0- 0&cases=Reference-d041117. 31 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook2013.
  • 27. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 27 5.5.3 Gas export Pricing Overview LNG prices in Europe were estimated in 2012 at $11-12/mbtu and Japanese benchmark prices are between $15-17/mbtu. If Delek and Noble decide to liquefy 10 bcm/y of their gas in Vassilikos the net profit margins of the LNG option for the second LNG train can be several times higher than the $1-$1.75/mbtu Cypriot and Israeli exporters would hope to get from selling their gas to Turkey. (Tsakiris, 2013) Table 5.5.3-1 Natural Gas Prices $/Mmbtu 32 32 BP Statistical Review ofWorld Energy June 2013
  • 28. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 28 Analyzing the overall cost for the development of the Aphrodite gas33 through an LNG terminal in Vassiliks is around $8-$9/mbtu, then gas exports to Europe can generate a net profit of approximately $2.5-$3/mbtu. If export contracts to Asian markets are closed by Delek/Noble within 2015-2016 then the potential profit margins could high as $7-$8/mbtu. (ibid.) An export strategy equally dividing Cypriot LNG exports between Europe and Asia- would generate an average net profit for LNG exports at $5.125/mbtu compared to a best estimate of $3/mbtu for the Turkish pipeline option. Additionally, sending all Cypriot gas exports to Turkey would essentially create a monopsony relationship that is by definition against the interests of any exporter even if there were no political impediments governing this commercial relationship. That is why it is more likely that the solution of LNG plant and at least 50% of the projected exports from Aphrodite and Leviathan would go to Asian markets (ibid.) 33 Actually in strict techno-economical terms ev enAphrodite’s reserves are still not prov en. Whatwe have are relativ ely accurate estimates ofprospective reserves thatwill be fully v erified after the productiontest whichwill follow the completion of the second appraisal wells thatwill drilled in the second halfof2014.
  • 29. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 29 6. Glossary tcm = trillion cubic meters FID = final investment decision tcf = trillion cubic feet RoC = Republic of Cyprus MTPA = million tones per annum MT = million tones EEZ = ExclusiveEconomic Zone MoUC = Memorandumof Understanding and Cooperation mmcm = million cubic meters mmBtu = million British thermal units mcm = thousand cubic meters LNG Liquefied natural gas km = Kilometer cm = cubic meters CERA = Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority bcm = billion cubic meters DEFA = Natural Gas Public Company NPV = net present value
  • 30. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 30 7. Bibliography Arms of innovation. 2014. [Film] France: dsp an endemol company. BBCnews, 2013. "Shell's record-breaking Prelude takes to the water". [Online] Available at: https://web.archive.org/web/20131204184139/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/tech nology-25213845 [Accessed 04 December 2013]. Bp, 2013. con Fact. [Online] Available at: www.car.gr. Briggs, et al., 2013. LNG LIQUEFACTION PLANT. In “Poten”, ed. MASTER PLAN OF THE VASILIKOS AREA. NIcosia: “Poten” & "ALA". p.29. Chartered , P., 1992. http://www.the-edi.co.uk/. [Online] (7th) Available at: http://www.the-edi.co.uk/downloads/eia_spring_2007.pdf [Accessed 19 April 2007]. Delek Group, 2014. [Online] Available at: http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0C CsQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fphx.corporate- ir.net%2FExternal.File%3Fitem%3DUGFyZW50SUQ9NTM5MDYxfENoaWxkSUQ9MjI4NT kzfFR5cGU9MQ%3D%3D%26t%3D1&ei=0lduU- WqMsG1PcS0gMgD&usg=AFQjCNGDcT79dYdH6cavDiXX5Q2neeM4tQ&bvm=bv. 66330100,d.ZWU [Accessed April 2014]. International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) , n.d. http://www.environmental-mainstreaming.org. [Online] Available at: http://www.environmental- mainstreaming.org/documents/EM%20Profile%20No%201%20- %20EIA%20(6%20Oct%2009).pdf. Kotzot, , Durr, , Coyle, & Caswell, , 2007. LNG LIQUEFACTION — NOT ALL PLANTS ARE CREATED EQUAL. [Online] KBR Available at: http://www.kbr.com/Newsroom/Publications/LNG/ [Accessed 2007].
  • 31. MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage 31 National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal Environment Agency, 2002. https://www.gov.uk/. [Online] Environment Agency Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file /296952/geho0411btrf-e-e.pdf [Accessed 01 May 2002]. A handbook for scoping projects. Nobole Energy International, 2013. http://www.mcit.gov.cy. [Online] Available at: http://www.mcit.gov.cy/mcit/mcit.nsf/All/11FFCD876C06B58CC2257C7700255D1 8/$file/04-Vasilikos%20Master%20Plan%202013_Executive%20Summary%20- %20Eng.pdf [Accessed 1 Octomber 2013]. Managment, E.R., 2001. http://ec.europa.eu/. [Online] Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/eia-guidelines/g-scoping-full-text.pdf [Accessed 19 April 2014]. Paltsev, et al., 2013. Natural Gas Monetization Pathways for Cyprus. Economics of Project Development Options. Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT Energy Initiative, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cyprus Institute. Shell, n.d. Prelude FLNG. [Online] Available at: http://www.shell.com.au/aboutshell/who-we-are/shell- au/operations/upstream/prelude.html [Accessed 2 May 2014]. Tsakiris, D.T., 2013. www.eliamep.gr/en. [Online] Available at: http://www.eliamep.gr/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/policy-paper.pdf [Accessed November 2013].