Abiliti: Future Systems explores emerging technologies

Abiliti: Future Systems
Throughout eternity, all that is of like form comes around again –
everything that is the same must return in its own everlasting
cycle.....
• Marcus Aurelius – Emperor of Rome •
Many Economists and Economic Planners have arrived at the same
conclusion - that most organisations have not yet widely adopted
sophisticated Business Intelligence and Analytics systems – let alone
integrated BI / Analytics and “Big Data” outputs into their core Strategic
Planning and Financial Management processes.....

• Abiliti: Origin Automation is part of a global consortium of Digital Technologies Service
Providers and Future Management Strategy Consulting firms for Digital Marketing and
Multi-channel Retail / Cloud Services / Mobile Devices / Big Data / Social Media
• Graham Harris Founder and MD @ Abiliti: Future Systems
– Email: (Office)
– Telephone: (Mobile)
• Nigel Tebbutt 奈杰尔泰巴德
– Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Abiliti: Future Systems
– Telephone: +44 (0) 7832 182595 (Mobile)
– +44 (0) 121 445 5689 (Office)
– Email: Nigel-Tebbutt@hotmail.com (Private)
• Ifor Ffowcs-Williams CEO, Cluster Navigators Ltd & Author, “Cluster Development”
– Address : Nelson 7010, New Zealand (Office)
– Email : e4@clusternavigators.com
Abiliti: Origin Automation Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©
Cluster Theory - Expert Commentary: -

Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.....
.....advances in “Big Data” have lead to a revolution in
Economic Modelling and Enterprise Risk Management –
but it takes both human ingenuity, and time, for Strategic
Economic and Risk Models to develop and mature.....

Financial Technology – Business Categories
Fin Tech – Business Disciplines
Economic Analysis & Econometrics Regime: –
• Economic Planning, Analytics & Optimisation •
• Business Cycles, Patterns and Trends •
• Quantitative and Qualitative Techniques •
• Economic Modelling & Long-range Forecasting •
• Ghost in the Machine - Future Management •
Business Planning and Strategy Regime: –
• Corporate Planning and Financial Analysis •
• Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking •
• Eltville Model • Three Horizons Framework •
• The “Thinking about the Future” Framework •
Business Programme Management Regime: –
• Organisational Change Framework •
• Business Transformation Framework •
• Project / Programme Management Framework •
Enterprise & Solution Architecture Regime: –
• Business Architecture / Modelling Framework •
• Technology Architecture / Modelling Framework •
Fin Tech – Operational Regimes
Corporate Responsibility Regimes: –
• Business Principles Regime •
• Enterprise Governance Regime •
• Reporting and Controls Regime •
• Enterprise Risk Management Regime •
• Enterprise Performance Management Regime •
Enterprise Risk Frameworks: –
• Systemic Risk • Outsights •
• Operational Risk • COSO •
• Trade Risk (micro-economic) •
• Market Risk (macro-economic) •
Liquidity Risk Frameworks – Capital Adequacy Rules
• Basle II – Banking • Solvency II – Insurance •
Insurance Risk Frameworks: –
• Actuarial Science • Underwriting / Reinsurance Risk •
• Security Risk • Reputational Risk • Data Science •
Reporting and Controls Frameworks: –
• Accounting Standards • GAAP • IFRS •
Enterprise and Business Architecture is a part of Abiliti: Financial Technology (Fin Tech) Training: -

Financial Technology – System Categories
Fin Tech – Core Processing
Retail Banking
• Deposits
• Accounts
• Payments
• Securities • Wealth Management •
Financial Markets
• Trade Desk • Automatic Trading •
• Enterprise Risk Management
• Quantitative (Technical) Analysis
• Financial Market Data Management
• Regulatory and Statutory Compliance
Corporate Banking
• Corporate Finance
• Investment Services
• Asset Portfolio Management
• Merger and Acquisition Services
• Shareholder Registration and Administration
Fin Tech – Shared Services
Enterprise Support Systems (ESS): -
• Planning, Forecasting and Strategic Management
• Enterprise Performance Management
• Human Resources and Talent Management
• Finance & Accounting • Treasury & Settlements
• Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls
Business Support Systems (BSS)
• Customer Relationship Management •
• Social Media • BI / Analytics • “Big Data” •
• Mobile Devices and Smart Apps Platforms •
• Multi-channel Digital Self-service Platforms •
Operational Support Systems (OSS)
• Cloud Services
• Desktop Services
• Network Management
• Software Versioning and Control
• Software Distribution Management
Systems and Solution Architecture forms part of Abiliti: Financial Technology (Fin Tech) Training: -

At the very Periphery of Corporate
Vision and Awareness…..
• The Cosmology Revolution – new and exciting advances in Astrophysics and
Cosmology (String Theory and Wave Mechanics) is leading Physicists towards new
questions and answers concerning the make-up of stellar clusters and galaxies, stellar
populations in different types of galaxy, and the relationships between high-stellar
populations and local clusters. What are the implications for galactic star-formation
histories and relative stellar formation times – overall, resolved and unresolved – and
their consequent impact on the evolution of life itself ?.
• The Quantum Revolution – The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science
fiction into science fact - from meta-materials with mind-boggling properties such as
invisibility, limitless quantum energy via room temperature superconductors an
onwards and upwards to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even
forecast that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator
that re-arranges molecules to produce everything from almost anything. How
ultimately will we use this gift? Will we have the wisdom to match our mastery of
matter like Solomon? Or will we abuse our technology strength and finally bring down
the temple around our ears like Samson?
• The Nano-Revolution – To meet the challenges in an ever more resource-limited
world, innovation and technology must play an increasing role. Nanotechnology, the
engineering of matter at the atomic scale to create materials with unique properties
and capabilities, will play a significant part in ensuring that risks to critical water
resources for future cities are addressed. Nanotechnology “has the potential to be a
key element in providing effective, environmentally sustainable solutions for supplying
potable water for human use and clean water for agricultural and industrial uses.”

• The Energy Revolution • Oil Shale • Kerogen • Tar Sands • Methane Hydrate • The
Hydrogen Economy • Nuclear Fusion • Every year we consume the quantity of Fossil
Fuel energy which took nature 3 million tears to create. Unsustainable fossil fuel energy
dependency based on Carbon will eventually be replaced by the Hydrogen Economy
and Nuclear Fusion. The conquest of hydrogen technology, the science required to
support a Hydrogen Economy (to free up humanity from energy dependency) and
Nuclear Fusion (to free up explorers from gravity dependency) is the final frontier which,
when crossed, will enable inter-stellar voyages of exploitation across our Galaxy.
• Nuclear Fusion requires the creation and sustained maintenance of the enormous
pressures and temperatures to be found at the Sun’s core This is a most challenging
technology that scientists here on Earth are only now just beginning to explore and
evaluate its extraordinary opportunities. To initiate Nuclear Fusion requires creating the
same conditions right here on Earth that are found the very centre of the Sun. This
means replicating the environment needed to support quantum nuclear processes which
take place at huger temperatures and immense pressures in the Solar core – conditions
extreme enough to overcome the immense nuclear forces which resist the collision and
fusion of two deuterium atoms (heavy hydrogen – one proton and one neutron) to form a
single Helium atom – accompanied by the release of a vast amount of Nuclear energy.

• Renewable Resources • Solar Power • Tidal Power • Hydro-electricity • Wind
Power • The Hydrogen Economy • Nuclear Fusion • Any natural resource is a
renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate compatible
with or faster than its rate of consumption by human activity or other natural uses
or attrition. Some renewable resources - solar radiation, tides, hydroelectricity,
wind – can also classified as perpetual resources, in that they can never be
consumed at a rate which is in excess of their long-term availability due to natural
processes of perpetual renewal. The term renewable resource also carries the
implication of prolonged or perpetual sustainability for the absorption, processing or
re-cycling of waste products via natural ecological and environmental processes.
• For the purposes of Nuclear Fission, Thorium may in future replaced enriched
Uranium-235. Thorium is much more abundant, far easier to mine, extract and
process and far less dangerous than Uranium. Thorium is used extensively in
Biomedical procedures, and its radioactive decay products are much more benign.
• Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or mechanism that can be
maintained indefinitely at a certain constant level or state – without showing any
long-term degradation, decline or collapse.. This concept, in its environmental
usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems -
such as the biosphere, ecology, the environment the and man-made systems of
industry, agronomy, agriculture, forestry, fisheries - and the planet's climate and
natural processes and cycles upon which they all depend.

• Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to extend current
human form and function - supporting the use of future science and technology to
enhance the human genome capabilities and capacities in order to overcome
undesirable and unnecessary aspects of the present human condition.
• The Intelligence Revolution – Artificial Intelligence will revolutionise homes,
workplaces and lifestyles. Augmented Reality will create new virtual worlds –
such as the interior of Volcanoes or Nuclear Reactors, the bottom of the Ocean or
the surface of the Moon, Venus or Mars - so realistic they will rival the physical
world. Robots with human-level intelligence may finally become a reality, and at
the ultimate stage of mastery, we'll even be able to merge human capacities with
machine intelligence and attributes – via the man-machine interface.
• The Biotech Revolution – Genome mapping and Genetic Engineering is now
bringing doctors and scientists towards first discovery, and then understanding,
control, and finally mastery of human health and wellbeing. Digital Healthcare
and Genetic Medicine will allow doctors and scientists to positively manage
successful patient outcomes – even over diseases previously considered fatal.
Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health, wellbeing
and longevity. DNA screening could diagnose and gene therapy prevent or cure
many diseases. Thanks to laboratory-grown tissues and organs, the human body
could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily available to order.
Ultimately, the ageing process itself could ultimately be slowed or even halted.

• Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It
includes both utopian and dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in
which climate, the environment, ecology and even geology are dominated by the
indirect impact of human activity and the direct impact of human manipulation: –
1. Human Impact is now the major factor in climate change, environmental and
ecological degradation.
2. Environmental Degradation - man now moves more rock and earth than do all
of the natural geological processes
3. Ecological Degradation – biological extinction rate - is currently greater than
that of the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) extinction event
4. Food, Energy, Water (FEW) Crisis – increasing scarcity of Natural Resources
• Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and environmental
support systems, for example intensive agriculture causing exhaustion of natural
resources by the Mayan and Khmer cultures, de-forestation and over-grazing
causing catastrophic ecological damage and resulting in climatic change – further
examples are the Easter Island culture, the de-population of upland moors and
highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards – including the Iron Age retreat
from northern and southern English uplands, the Scottish Highland Clearances
and replacement of subsistence crofting by deer and grouse for hunting and
sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland Estates and the current sub-Saharan
de-forestation and subsequent desertification by semi-nomadic pastoralists

Ghost in the Machine:
Haunted by Randomness
“Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future,
And time future contained in time past
. . . all time is eternally present”
• Time, Eternity, and Immortality in T. S. Eliot's Four Quartets •

• The purpose of a Futures Study Training Module is based on the overarching need to
enable and prepare clients to anticipate, prepare for and manage the future - by guiding them
towards an understanding of how the future might unfold. This involves planning, organising
and running Futures Studies Projects and presenting the results via Workshops, Seminars
and CxO Forums. This means working with key client executives responsible for Stakeholder
Relationships, Communications and Benefits Realisation Strategies - helping to influence and
shape organisational change and driving technology innovation to enable rapid business
transformation, ultimately to facilitate the achievement of stakeholder’s desired Business
Outcomes – plus the scoping, envisioning and designing the Future Systems to support
client objectives – by integrating BI / Analytics and “Big Data” Futures Study and Strategy
Analysis outputs into their core Corporate Planning and Financial Management processes.....
– CxO Forums – executive briefings on new and emerging technologies and trends
– Workshops – discovery workshops to explore future Scenario Planning & Analysis
– Seminars – presents in detail the key Futures Study findings and extrapolations.
– Special Interest Groups (SIGs) – for stakeholder Subject Matter Experts (SMEs)

• This Futures Study Training Module – is designed to provide cross-functional support to
those client stakeholders who are charged by their organisations with thinking about the
future – corporate planners, disaster and contingency management and enterprise risk
research, planning, strategy, analysis and management along with those IT Professionals
responsible for Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Frameworks and Systems. The
Futures Study course consists of the following components : -
– Classroom Training – Slide Pack, Handouts, Background Documents, Tests and Exercises.
– Workshop Facilitation – driving and mentoring Futures Studies Workshops.
– Advisory Consulting – advise and inform your Futures Study Programme.
– CxO Forums – executive briefings on new and emerging technologies and trends
– Future Discovery – discovery workshops to explore future Scenario Planning & Analysis
– Seminars – presents in detail the key Futures Study findings and extrapolations.
– Special Interest Groups (SIGs) – for stakeholder Subject Matter Experts (SMEs)
– Resources – access to Think Tanks, NGOs, Government Departments and Academia.
– Gateway to Higher Education – Graduate Courses in Futures Studies @ University of Oxford –
Said Business School and Smith School of Economics and the Environment (SSEE)

• This Slide Pack forms part of a Futures Study Training Module - the purpose of which is to provide
cross-functional support to those client stakeholders who are charged by their organisations with
thinking about the future – corporate planners, disaster and contingency management and enterprise
risk research, planning, strategy, analysis and management along with IT Professionals responsible for
architecting, designing and supporting Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks and Systems: -
– Finance, Corporate Planners and Strategists – authorise and direct the Futures Study.
– Enterprise Risk Managers, Disaster & Contingency Planners – plan & lead Futures Studies.
– Product Innovation, Research & Development – advise and inform the Futures Study.
– Marketing and Product Engineering – review and mentor the Futures Research Study.
– Economists, Data Scientists and Researchers – undertakes the detailed Research Tasks.
– Research Aggregator – examines hundreds of related Academic Papers, “Big Data” & other
relevant global internet content - looking for hidden or missed findings and extrapolations.
– Author – compiles, documents, edits and publishes the Futures Study Research Findings.
– Business Analysts / Enterprise Architects – provide the link into Business Transformation.
– Technical Designers / Solution Architects – provide the link into Technology Refreshment.

The Management of Uncertainty
Mechanical Processes –
Thermodynamics (Complexity and Chaos Theory) – governs the behaviour of Systems
Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) – governs the behaviour of all everyday objects
Quantum Mechanics – governs the behaviour of unimaginably small sub-atomic particles
Relativity Theory – governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures
Wave Mechanics (String Theory) – integrates the behaviour of every size and type of object

Executive Summary - The
Management of Uncertainty
• It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive factors for any
organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major
intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level,
in every type of business. The way that we think about the future must mirror how the
future actually unfolds. As we have learned from recent experience, the future is not a
straightforward extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider
ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be
factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk management frameworks and
incorporated into decision-making structures and processes.
• Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a narrow
perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A
concentration of focus may risk overlooking Weak Signals indicating potential issues
and events, agents and catalysts of change. Such Weak Signals – along with their
resultant Wild Card and Black Swan Events - represent early warning of radically
disruptive future global transformations – which are even now taking shape at the very
periphery of corporate awareness, perception and vision – or just beyond.

• There are many kinds of Stochastic or Random processes that impact on every area
of Nature and Human Activity. Randomness can be found in Science and Technology
and in Humanities and the Arts. Random events are taking place almost everywhere
we look – for example from Complex Systems and Chaos Theory to Cosmology and
the distribution and flow of energy and matter in the Universe, from Brownian motion
and quantum theory to fractal branching and linear transformations. There are further
examples – atmospheric turbulence in Weather Systems and Climatology, and system
dependence influencing complex orbital and solar cycles. Other examples include
sequences of Random Events, Weak Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events
occurring in every aspect of Nature and Human Activity – from the Environment and
Ecology - to Politics, Economics and Human Behaviour and in the outcomes of current
and historic wars, campaigns, battles and skirmishes - and much, much more.
• These Stochastic or Random processes are agents of change that may precipitate
global impact-level events which either threaten the very survival of the organisation -
or present novel and unexpected opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to
include Weak Signals and peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process may
therefore be critical in contributing towards the continued growth, success, wellbeing
and survival of both individuals and organisations at the micro-level – as well as cities,
states and federations at the macro-level - as witnessed in the rise and fall of empires.

Random Processes
• Random Processes may influence any natural and human phenomena, such as: -
– the history of an object
– the outcome of an event
– the execution of a process
• Randomness may be somewhat difficult to demonstrate, as true Randomness in chaotic
system behaviour is not always readily or easily distinguishable from any of the “noise”
that we may find in Complex Systems – such as foreground and background wave
harmonics, resonance and interference. Complex Systems may be influenced by both
internal and external factors which remain hidden – either unrecognised or unknown.
These hidden and unknown factors may exist far beyond our ability to detect them – but
nevertheless, still exert influence. The existence of weak internal or external forces acting
on systems may not be visible to the observer – these subliminal temporal forces can
influence Complex System behaviour in such a way that the presence of imperceptibly tiny
inputs, acting on a system, amplified in effect over many system cycles - are ultimately
able to create massive observable changes to outcomes in complex system behaviour.

• Uncertainty is the outcome of the disruptive effect that chaos and randomness
introduces into our daily lives. Research into stochastic (random) processes looks
towards how we might anticipate, prepare for and manage the chaos and uncertainty
which acts on complex systems – including natural systems such as Cosmology and
Climate, as well as human systems such as Politics and the Economy – so that we may
anticipate future change and prepare for it…..
1. Classical Mechanics - Any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces
2. Thermodynamics - Randomness, chaos and uncertainty is directly a result of Entropy
3. Biology - Any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces
4. Chemistry - Any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces
5. Atomic Theory - All events are utterly and unerringly predictable (Dirac Equation)
6. Quantum Mechanics - Every event is both symmetrical and random (Hawking Paradox)
7. Geology - Any randomness or asymmetry is a result of Unknown Forces
8. Astronomy - Any randomness or asymmetry is a result of Unknown Forces
9. Cosmology - Any randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Dark Matter, Energy, Flow
10. Relativity Theory - Randomness or asymmetry may be a result of Quantum effects
11. Wave Mechanics - Any randomness and asymmetry is as a result of Unknown Forces

Domain Scope / Scale Randomness Pioneers
Classical Mechanics
(Newtonian Physics)
Everyday objects Any apparent randomness is as
a result of Unknown Forces
Sir Isaac Newton
Thermodynamics Entropy, Enthalpy Newcomen, Trevithick,
Watt, Stephenson
Biology Evolution Darwin, Banks, Huxley,
Krebs, Crick, Watson
Chemistry Molecules Lavoisier, Priestley
Atomic Theory Atoms Each and every Quantum event
is truly and intrinsically fully
symmetrical and random
Max Plank, Niels Bohr
Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles Erwin Schrodinger ,
Werner Heisenberg,
Paul Dirac,
Richard Feynman

Domain Scope / Scale Randomness Pioneers
Geology The Earth, Planets,
Planetoids, Asteroids,
Meteors / Meteorites
Any apparent randomness is as
a result of Unknown Forces
Hutton, Lyell, Wagner
Astronomy Common, Observable
Celestial Objects
Any apparent randomness or
asymmetry may be as a result
of Quantum effects or other
Unknown Forces acting early in
the history of Space-Time
Galileo, Copernicus,
Kepler, Lovell, Hubble
Cosmology Super-massive
Celestial Objects
Hoyle, Ryall, Rees,
Penrose, Bell-Burnell
Relativity Theory The Universe Any apparent randomness or
asymmetry is as a result of
Unknown Forces / Dimensions
Albert Einstein,
Hermann Minkowski,
Stephen Hawking
Wave Mechanics
(String Theory or
Quantum Dynamics)
The Universe,
Membranes and
Hyperspace
Michael Green,
Michio Kaku

• Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)
– Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) governs the behaviour of everyday objects
– any apparent randomness is as a result of unimaginably small, unobservable and
unmeasurable Unknown Forces - either internal or external - acting upon a System.
• Thermodynamics
– governs the flow of energy and the transformation (change in state) of systems
– randomness, chaos and uncertainty is the result of the effects of Enthalpy and Entropy
• Chemistry
– Chemistry (Transformation) governs the change in state of atoms and molecules
• Biology
– Biology (Ecology ) governs Evolution - the life and death of all living Organisms

• Atomic Theory
– governs the behaviour of unimaginably small objects (atoms and sub-atomic particles)
– all events are truly and intrinsically, utterly and unerringly predictable (Dirac Equation).
• Quantum Mechanics
– governs the behaviour of unimaginably tiny objects (fundamental sub-atomic particles)
– all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random (Hawking Paradox).
• Geology
– Geology governs the behaviour of local Solar System Objects (such as The Earth, Planets,
Planetoids, Asteroids, Meteors / Meteorites) which populate the Solar System
unmeasurable Unknown Forces - either internal or external - acting upon a System
• Astronomy
– Astronomy governs the behaviour of Common, Observable Celestial Objects (such as
Asteroids, Planets, Stars and Stellar Clusters) which populate and structure Galaxies
– any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum Effects, Unknown
Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting very early in the history of Universal Space-Time

• Cosmology
– Cosmology governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic building blocks
(such as Galaxies and Galactic Clusters) which populate and structure the Universe
– any apparent randomness or asymmetry is due to the influence of Quantum Effects,
Unknown Forces (Dark Matter, Dark Flow and Dark Energy) or Unknown Dimensions
• Relativity Theory
– Relativity Theory governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures
(such as Galaxies and Galactic Clusters) which populate and structure the Universe
Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting very early in the history of Universal Space-Time
• Wave Mechanics (String Theory or Quantum Dynamics)
– Wave Mechanics integrates the behaviour of every size and type of physical object
Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting on the Universe, Membranes or in Hyperspace

• The Temporal Wave is a novel and innovative method for Visual Modelling and Exploration of
Geospatial “Big Data” - simultaneously within a Time (history) and Space (geographic) context.
The problems encountered in exploring and analysing vast volumes of spatial–temporal
information in today's data-rich landscape – are becoming increasingly difficult to manage
effectively. In order to overcome the problem of data volume and scale in a Time (history) and
Space (location) context requires not only traditional location–space and attribute–space
analysis common in GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis - but now with the additional dimension
of time–space analysis. The Temporal Wave supports a new method of Visual Exploration for
Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal (timeline) context.
• This time-visualisation approach integrates Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal
(timeline) data along with data visualisation techniques - thus improving accessibility,
exploration and analysis of the huge amounts of geo-spatial data used to support geo-visual
“Big Data” analytics. The temporal wave combines the strengths of both linear timeline and
cyclical wave-form analysis – and is able to represent data both within a Time (history) and
Space (geographic) context simultaneously – and even at different levels of granularity. Linear
and cyclic trends in space-time data may be represented in combination with other graphic
representations typical for location–space and attribute–space data-types. The Temporal Wave
can be used in roles as a time–space data reference system, as a time–space continuum
representation tool, and as time–space interaction tool.

• Randomness. Neither data-driven nor model-driven macro-economic or micro-economic
models currently available to us today - seem able to deal with the concept or impact of
Random Events (uncertainty). We therefore need to consider and factor in further novel
and disruptive (systemic) approaches which offer us the possibility to manage uncertainty.
We can do this by searching for, detecting and identifying Weak Signals – which are tiny,
unexpected variations or disturbances in system outputs – surprises – predicating the
possible existence of hidden data relationships which are masked or concealed within the
general background system “noise”. Weak Signals are caused by the presence of small
unrecognised or unknown forces acting on the system. Weak Signals in turn may indicate
the possible future appearance of emerging chaotic, and radically disruptive Wild Card or
Black Swan events beginning to form on the detectable Horizon – or even just beyond.
• Random Events must then be factored into Complex Systems Modelling. Complex
Systems interact with unseen forces – which in turn act to inject disorder, randomness,
uncertainty, chaos and disruption. The Global Economy, and other Complex Adaptive
Systems, may in future be considered and modelled successfully as a very large set of
multiple interacting Ordered (Constrained) Complex Systems - each individual System
loosely coupled with all of the others, and every System with its own clear set of rules and
an ordered (restricted) number of elements and classes, relationships and types.

Future Management
Research Philosophy
“Research philosophy is an over-arching term relating to the
development of knowledge - and understanding the nature of that
knowledge which is under development.....”
• Adapted from Saunders et al, (2009) •
Epistemology concerns the scope of what constitutes acceptable knowledge in a field of study.
Ontology is concerned with the nature of reality - and raises questions about assumptions

Research Philosophies
• This section aims to discuss Risk Research Philosophies in detail, in order to develop
a general awareness and understanding of the options - and to describe a rigorous
approach to Research Methods and Scope as a mandatory precursor to the full Risk
Research Design. Kvale (1996) and Denzin and Lincoln (2003) highlight how different
Research Philosophies can result in much tension amongst research stakeholders.
• When undertaking any research of either a Scientific or Humanistic nature, it is most
important to consider, compare and contrast all of the varied and diverse Research
Philosophies and Paradigms that are available to the researcher and supervisor -
along with their respective treatments of ontology and epistemology issues.
• Since Research Philosophies and paradigms often describe dogma, perceptions,
beliefs and assumptions about the nature of reality and truth (and knowledge of that
reality) - they can radically influence the way in which the research is undertaken,
from design through to outcomes and conclusions. It is important to understand and
discuss these contrasting aspects in order that approaches congruent to the nature
and aims of the particular study or inquiry in question, are adopted - and to ensure
that researcher and supervisor biases are understood, exposed, and mitigated.

Research Philosophies
• James and Vinnicombe (2002) caution that we all have our own inherent preferences
that are likely to shape our research designs and conclusions, Blaikie (2000) describes
these aspects as part of a series of choices that the researcher has to consider, and
demonstrates that this alignment that must connect choices made back to the original
Research Problem. If this is not achieved, then certain research methods may be
adopted which turn out to be incompatible with the researcher’s stance, and result in
the final work being undermined through lack of coherence and consistency.
• Blaikie (1993) argues that Research Methods aligned to the original Research Problem
are highly relevant to Social Science since the humanistic element introduces a
component of “free will”’ that adds a complexity beyond those usually encountered in
the natural sciences – whilst others, such as Hatch and Cunliffe (2006) draw attention
to the fact that different paradigms ‘encourage researchers to study phenomena in
different ways’, going on to describe a number of organisational phenomena from three
different perspectives, thus highlighting how different kinds of knowledge may be
derived through observing the same phenomena from different philosophical
viewpoints and perspectives.

Aspects of Research Philosophy
• Rationalism – “blue-sky” pure research - the stance of the natural scientist
– Rationalism can be defined as “probabilistic research approaches that employ forensic and
analytical methods, make extensive use of both qualitative and quantitative analysis - free
from any pre-determined behavioral models - in order to discover hidden or unknown truths”
• Positivism – goal seeking - the stance of the applied scientist
– Positivism can be defined as “deterministic research approaches that employ empirical
methods, and make extensive use of quantitative analysis, or develop logical calculi in order to
develop hypotheses and build conceptual models in support of formal explanatory theory”
• Realism – direct and critical realism
– The essence of realism is that what the senses show us as reality is the truth; that objects
have an existence independent of the human mind.
• Interpretation – researchers as ‘social actors’
– Interpretation advocates the necessity for researchers to understand differences between
humans in our role as social actors.
• Pragmatism – studies judgements about value
– Pragmatism holds that the most important determinant of the epistemology, ontology,
axiology adopted is the research question

Probabilistic v. Deterministic Domains
Deterministic
Probabilistic
Rationalism
Positivism Gnosticism, Sophism
Scepticism
Dogma
Enlightenment
Pragmatism
Realism
Social Sciences
Sociology
Economics
Business Studies / Administration / Strategy
Psychology / Psychiatry / Medicine / Surgery
Behavioural Research Domains
Arts and the Humanities
Life Sciences
HistoryArts LiteratureReligion
Law PhilosophyPolitics
Biological basis of Behaviour
Biology Ecology Anthropology and Pre-history
Clinical Trials / Morbidity / Actuarial Science
“Goal-seeking” Empirical Research Domains
Applied (Experimental) Science
Earth Sciences
Economic Analysis
Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)
Applied mathematics
Geography
Geology
Chemistry
Engineering
Geo-physics Environmental Sciences
Archaeology
Palaeontology
“Blue Sky” – Pure Research Domains
Future Management
Pure (Theoretical) Science
Quantitative Analysis
Computational Theory / Information Theory
Astronomy
Cosmology
Relativity
Astrophysics
Astrology
Taxonomy and Classification
Climate Change
Complex and Chaotic Research Domains
Narrative (Interpretive) Science
Statistics
Strategic Foresight
Data Mining“Big Data” Analytics
Cluster Theory
Pure mathematics
Particle Physics
String Theory
Quantum Mechanics
Complex Systems – Chaos Theory
Futures Studies
Weather ForecastingPredictive Analytics
Reaction
Stoicism

DETERMINISTIC PHILOSOPHIC PARADIGMS
GOVERNING AUTHORITIES tend to be Deterministic in nature - 12 Deterministic Paradigms.....
DETERMINISTIC PHILOSOPHIC PARADIGMS
• Utopian (Idealistic) Paradigm - Strategic Positivism
• Humanist (Instructional) Paradigm - Sceptic Paradigm
• Dogmatic (Theosophical) Paradigm - Reactionary Paradigm
• Utilitarian (Consequential) Paradigm – Egalitarian Paradigm
• Extrapolative (Projectionist) Paradigm – Wave, Cycle, Pattern and Trend Analysis
• Steady State (La meme chose - same as it ever was) Paradigm – Constant Paradigm
• Hellenistic (Classical) Paradigm – Human Ethics, Morals, Values and Beliefs
• Pre-ordained (Pre-disposed, Stoic) Paradigm - Cognitive Analysis / Intuitive Assimilation
• Elitism (New World Order) - Goal Seeking, Leadership Studies and Stakeholder Analysis
• Existentialist Paradigm (Personal Futures) - Trans-humanism, The Singularity, NLP / EHT
• Empirical (Scientific Determinism, Theoretical Positivism) Paradigm – Hypothetical Paradigm
• Predictive (Ordered, Systemic, Mechanistic, Enthalpy) Paradigm – Deconstructive Paradigm

PROBABILISTIC PHILOSOPHIC PARADIGMS
NATURAL PHILOSOPHERS tend to be Probabilistic in nature - 12 Probabilistic Paradigms.....
PROBABILISTIC PHILOSOPHIC PARADIGMS
• Polemic (Rational) Paradigm - Enlightenment
• Dystopian (Fatalistic) Paradigm – Probabilistic Negativism
• Postmodernism (Reactionary) Paradigm - Structural Philosophy
• Complexity (Constructionist) Paradigm - Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
• Metaphysical (Naturalistic, Evolutionary, Adaptive) Paradigm - Gaia Hypothesis
• Mystic (Gnostic, Sophistic, Esoteric, Cathartic) Paradigm – Contemplative Paradigm
• Uncertainty (Random, Chaotic, Disorderly, Enthalpy) Paradigm – Disruptive Paradigm
• Experiential (Forensic, Deductive, Realist, “Blue Sky”) Paradigm – Pragmatism
• Qualitative (Narrative, Reasoned) Paradigm - Scenario Forecasting and Impact Analysis
• Simplexity (Reductionist) Paradigm – Loosely-coupled Linear Systems and Game Theory
• Interpretive (Ordered, Systemic, Mechanistic, Entropic) Paradigm – Constructive Paradigm
• Quantitative (Logical, Technical) Paradigm - Mathematical Modelling & Statistical Analysis

Ancient Philosophy
• 1 Ancient Chinese philosophy
– 2.1 Schools of thought
• 2.1.1 Hundred Schools of Thought
• 2.1.2 Early Imperial China
– 2.2 Philosophers
• 2 Ancient Greek and Roman philosophy
– 3.1 Philosophers
• 3.1.1 Presocratic philosophers
• 3.1.2 Classical Greek philosophers
• 3.1.3 Hellenistic philosophy
– 3.2 Hellenistic schools of thought
– 3.3 Early Roman and Christian philosophy
– 3.4 Philosophers during Roman times

Ancient Philosophy
• 4 Ancient Indian philosophy
– 4.1 Vedic philosophy
– 4.2 Sramana philosophy
– 4.3 Classical Indian philosophy
– 4.4 Ancient Indian philosophers
• 4.4.1 Philosophers of Vedic Age (2000–600 BCE)
• 4.4.2 Philosophers of Axial Age (600–185 BCE)
• 4.4.3 Philosophers of Golden Age (184 BCE – 600 CE)
• 5 Ancient Iranian philosophy
– 5.1 Schools of thought
– 5.2 Philosophy and the empire
– 5.3 Literature

Ancient Philosophy
• 6 Ancient Jewish philosophy
– 6.1 First Temple (c. 900 BCE to 587 BCE)
– 6.2 Assyrian exile (587 BCE to 516 BCE)
– 6.3 Second Temple (516 BCE to 70 CE)
– 6.4 Early Roman exile (70 CE to c. 600 CE)

Hellenistic Schools of Thought
• 1 Pre-Socratic philosophy
– 1.1 Milesian school
– 1.2 Xenophanes
– 1.3 Pythagoreanism
– 1.4 Heraclitus
– 1.5 Eleatic philosophy
– 1.6 Pluralism and atomism
– 1.7 Sophistry
• 2 Classical Greek philosophy
– 2.1 Socrates
– 2.2 Plato
– 2.3 Aristotle
• 3 Hellenistic philosophy
• 4 Transmission of Greek philosophy under Islam

Hellenistic Schools of Thought
1. Pythagoreanism
2. Sophism
3. Cynicism
4. Cyrenaicism
5. Platonism
6. Peripateticism
7. Pyrrhonism
8. Epicureanism
9. Stoicism
10. Eclecticism
11. Hellenistic Judaism
12. Neopythagoreanism
13. Hellenistic Christianity
14. Neoplatonism
Hellenistic schools of Philosophy and Thought

Philosophical Paradigms
Mystic (Hermetic)
Philosophy
Description Leading figures
mystic (hermetic)
philosophy
Related: -
Transcendentalism;
Perennial Philosophy;
Unitarian Universalism;
Gnosticism and the Kabala.
Mystic (Hermetic) Philosophy in which “secret”
or “hidden” knowledge is revealed to initiates in a
series of steps or “degrees”, in ritual practices or
religious rites based on Perennial Philosophy;
Transcendentalism and Unitarian Universalism
– are found in Jewish and Christian Gnosticism,
the Kabala and Moslem Sufism. The essence of
divination in mystic (hermetic) philosophy is the
belief that wisdom, knowledge or “spiritual truth”
can be gained through contemplative meditation –
trance-like deep thinking or prayer – in a state of
mystical union with the universal force, or in direct
communion with the supreme spiritual being – as
is described by mystic (hermetic) philosophers.
The Kybalion Hermetic Philosophy was published
anonymously in 1908 by an individual or group of
individuals under the pseudonym of "the Three
Initiates" – which they claimed to be the essential
distillation of the mystic philosophical teachings of
Hermes Trismegistus the “Thrice-Great” - which
is interpreted today as associated with learning or
wisdom transmitted to man from divine sources.
Hermes Trismegistus, Philo of
Alexandria, Flavius Josephus,
Michel Nostradamus.
Hermes Trismegistus. the “Thrice-
Great”. Hermes is interpreted as a
figure associated with learning or
wisdom transmitted to man from
divine sources. Hermes is the Greek
name for the Egyptian god Thoth or
Tehuti, the god of wisdom, learning
Philo of Alexandria, also called
Philo Judaeus, was a Hellenistic
Jewish philosopher who lived in
Alexandria, in the Roman province of
Egypt. Philo used philosophical
allegory to attempt to fuse and
harmonize Greek Stoic philosophy
with Jewish Kabala philosophy.

Mystic (Hermetic)
Philosophy
mystic (hermetic)
philosophy
Related: -
Transcendentalism;
Perennial Philosophy;
Unitarian Universalism;
Gnosticism and the Kabala.
Josephus was a priest, soldier, and scholar. He is
famous for his prophecies – and also for being the
most credible secular historian outside of the New
Testament to record the existence of Jesus Christ.
Prophetic visions of Nostradamus are contained
in 942 cryptic poems called The Centuries.
Nostradamus wrote four-line verses (quatrains) in
groups of 100 (centuries). They have enthralled
generation after generation of readers. He was
often referred to as the prophet of doom because
many of his visions involved conflict and death.
Titus Flavius Josephus, born
Joseph ben Matityahu, was a first-
century Romano-Jewish scholar,
historian and philosopher, born in
Jerusalem - part of Roman Judea -
to a father of priestly descent and a
mother who claimed royal ancestry
Michel de Nostredame, usually
Latinised as Nostradamus (14 or 21
December 1503 – 2 July 1566) was
from a Sephardic Jewish family who
had converted to Christianity. Born
in South-west France, the French
apothecary and reputed seer who
published “The Centuries” – a
collection of prophecies that have
since become famous worldwide.

Stoic
Philosophy
Stoic philosophy
Related: -
Stoicism and
Rationalism
“Throughout eternity,
all that is of like form
will come around
again – everything
that is the same must
always return in its
own everlasting
cycle.....”
“Look back over time,
with past empires
that in their turn rise
and fall – through
changing history you
may also see the
future.....”
Stoicism is a school of Hellenistic philosophy
founded in Athens by Zeno of Citium in the early 3rd
century BC. Stoic Philosophers taught that errors in
judgment resulted from destructive emotions, and that
a sage, or person of "moral and intellectual
perfection", would be entirely detached from any such
emotional impediments – and would therefore view
the world from an entirely Rational perspective..
Marcus Aurelius followed • Stoic Philosophy •
The Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius was perhaps
the only true philosopher-king in world history.
His Stoic tome Meditations, written in Greek while on
campaign between 170 and 180, is still revered as a
literary monument to a Stoic philosophy of service
and duty, describing how to find and maintain a
rational equanimity in the midst of conflict by studying
and understanding nature as a source of instruction,
guidance and inspiration.
Lucius Anna of accelerationeus
Seneca (c. 4 BC-65 AD), Statesman,
Stoic philosopher, and playwright
Rational Futurists view the world
from an entirely objective and
Rational perspective – devoid of any
subjective or emotional influences
• Marcus Aurelius • Emperor of Rome
Marcus Aurelius Latin: Marcus
Aurelius Antoninus Augustus; 26 April
121 AD –17 March 180 AD) was
chosen by Hadrian to be his eventual
successor. He was Roman Emperor
from 161 to 180, he ruled jointly with
Lucius Verus as his co-emperor from
161 until Verus' death in 169. He was
the last of the Five Good Emperors,
and is also considered one of the
most important Stoic philosophers.

Dystopian
Philosophy
Dystopian
philosophy
Dystopia: A futuristic, imaginary society, world or
universe that exerts oppressive citizen control - in
which a figurehead or concept is worshipped by
the unfortunate citizens of that dystopian society.
The prologue to Book I of Milton Paradise Lost
begins with Milton stating that his subject will be
Adam and Eve’s disobedience and fall from grace
in order to discourse about the fall of man and to
justify God's harsh ways of dealing with mankind.
Brave New World is a novel written in 1931 by
Aldous Huxley and published in 1932. Set in a
future London of AD 2540, the novel anticipated
the rise of Fascism in Europe – developments in
state-sponsored propaganda and terrorism, the
technology of warfare, centralised control of
sexual and reproductive functions, euthanasia,
psychological profiling and sleep-learning
The Dystopian view or viewpoint
In Futures Studies is based on
the upward trend in developing
global crises which threaten the
future of mankind – war, terrorism,
rebellion, insecurity and civil
disobedience, Climate Change,
Population Growth and the rapid
exhaustion of natural resources -
Food Energy and Water
John Milton. (1608–1674)
Paradise Lost - where demons
released to live in Pandemonium
wander – to prey on lost souls.
Brave New World is an unsettling,
loveless and even sinister place.
This is because Huxley endows his
"ideal" society with features and
characteristics calculated to
alienate his readers from this so-
called “Utopia”.

Utopian
Philosophy
Utopian
philosophy
Utopian philosophy – Utopia is an imagined
place or state of affairs in which everything is
perfect. The word Utopia is constructed from two
Greek words - TOPOS meaning PLACE and OU
meaning NO. Thus Utopia is "nowhere" or an
imaginary place. It is also a pun on the word EU
meaning good or perfect. So Utopia can also be a
seen as a perfect place - which is non-existent.
Sir Thomas Moore published Utopia in 1516 and
since then the word Utopia has become the
generic name for a whole genre of speculative
writing, philosophy and ideology - also being
retrospectively applied to works like Plato's
Republic, upon which Utopia is largely based.
Milton's last two poems were published in one
volume in 1671. Paradise Regained, a brief epic
in four books, was followed by Samson Agonistes
In Futures Studies, a Utopian
view or idealistic viewpoint is
founded on the false hope or
promise that future of mankind will
sort itself out, and everything is
going to be all right…..
Sir Thomas More (later canonized
St. Thomas a’ More) is famous for
both his book Utopia (1515) and
for his Catholic martyrdom when
he refused to acknowledge King
Henry VIII as head of the
Protestant Church, then failed to
sanction Henrys’ divorce of Queen
Catherine of Aragon.
John Milton. (1608–1674)
Paradise Regained

Philosophy Description Leading figures
Polemic philosophy Polemic comes from the Greek polemikos meaning
"warlike” or “belligerent” - a philosophy based on
confrontational argument or adversarial debate –
particularly when attacking an opposing doctrine or
refuting an opposite view, viewpoint or opinion - often
accompanied by controversial, misleading,
contentious or spurious statements.
Nietzsche and Voltaire are examples
of Polemic Philosophers.
Polemic Futures Studies is based
on the forceful arguments put forward
by the opponents and detractors of
Darwinian Evolution, Climate Change
Romantic
Philosophy –
Related: -
Epistemology
Romanticism
Natural Philosophy
Romantic Movement
The Romantic Movement emerged out of the
Romantic challenge to both the static, materialistic
views of the Enlightenment and its diametrically
opposed Idealistic Paradigm – so developing as a
reaction against their contrary methods, validity, and
scope – in respect of both their ethical values, and the
distinction between “opinion” and “justified belief”.
Romantic Philosophy, along with its new
epistemology of nature (natural history – the study of
life) came to be the prevailing mood of the 18th
century – a popular movement which also sparked
the religious revival to which both the Evangelical and
High Church movements bear stark witness
(Epistemology – the theory of knowledge)
Romantic movement – an artistic,
literary, and intellectual movement
emerging in Western Europe during
the second half of the 18th century: -

Metaphysical
Philosophy
metaphysical
philosophy
In Western philosophy,
metaphysics has become
the study of the
fundamental nature of
reality - what it is, why it
is, and how we are to able
to understand its true
properties.....
Metaphysics is a broad area of philosophical
enquiry marked out by two types of question.
The first question aims to be the most general
investigation possible into the nature of reality: -
are there principles which apply to all that is real,
to everything that exists? Through abstraction
from the particular (specific) nature of existing
things - what distinguishes them from each other,
what can we learn generically about objects
merely by virtue of the fact that they exist?
The second question or type of inquiry seeks to
uncover what is ultimately real - frequently
offering answers in sharp contrast to our
everyday experience of the world. Through an
understanding of the terms of these two
paradigms, metaphysics is very closely related to
ontology - which is usually taken to involve both
‘what is existence (being)?’ and ‘what types of
(fundamentally distinct) objects exist?’
Emmanuel Kant, Carl Linaeus,
Charles Darwin, Thomas Huxley
Thomas Henry Huxley was one of
the first adherents to Darwin's theory
of evolution by natural selection, and
did more than anyone else to
advance its claims – including a
famous debate in 1860 with Bishop
Samuel Wilberforce – this was a key
moment in his own career and in the
wider acceptance of evolution.

Metaphysical
Philosophy
metaphysical
philosophy
Related: -
Alchemy
Ontology
Taxonomy
Classification
Natural History
Natural Philosophy
Systemic
Methodology
Rationalism can be defined as “probabilistic research
approaches that employ forensic and analytical
methods, make extensive use of both qualitative and
quantitative analysis - free from any pre-determined
behavioural models - in order to discover the secrets
of hidden or “unknown” truths
Positivism can be defined as “deterministic research
approaches that employ empirical methods, and
make extensive use of quantitative analysis, or
develop logical calculi in order to develop hypotheses
and build conceptual models in support of formal
explanatory theory”
The essence of Realism is that what the senses
show us as reality is the truth; that objects have an
existence independent of the human mind.
Interpretation advocates the necessity for
researchers to understand differences between
humans in our role as social actors.
Pragmatism holds that the most important
determinant of the epistemology, ontology, axiology
adopted is the question posed by the research
Rationalism – “blue-sky” research -
the natural stance of the free and
unencumbered “pure” scientist
Positivism – goal seeking - the
natural stance of the restricted and
constrained “applied” scientist
Realism – the direct, critical and
objective science of realism
Interpretation – scientific
researchers as “social actors”
Pragmatism – studies subjective
judgements about questions of
ethics, values and beliefs

Metaphysical
Philosophy
metaphysical
philosophy
In Western philosophy,
metaphysics has
become the study of the
fundamental nature of
reality - what it is, why it
is, and how we are to
understand its
properties.....
Related: -
Alchemy
Ontology
Taxonomy
Classification
Natural History
Natural Philosophy
Systemic Methodology
Darwinism is a theory of biological evolution
which was developed by Charles Darwin and
others, stating that all species of organisms arise
and develop over time through the mechanism of
natural selection – in which only those organisms
best adapted to their environment survive long
enough to reproduce – and therefore pass on their
genetic information to the next generation.
Relativity or the theory of relativity in physics,
encompasses two theories by Albert Einstein: the
case of special relativity and general relativity –
each describe the properties of Mass and Energy
(Mass-Energy) interacting with Space and Time.
The Minkowski Space-Time continuum is a four-
dimensional manifold or construct, described by
Hermann Minkowski to better understand the case
of special relativity. It has four dimensions - three
dimensions of space inextricably linked with time.
Hubble's Law is named after astronomer Edwin
Hubble whose studies of distant galaxies gave us
an understanding of the expanding Universe.
Edwin Hubble was hired to work at
Mount Wilson Observatory in 1919
(part of the Observatories of the
Carnegie Institution of Washington)
as a junior astronomer. During the
1920's and 30's, Edwin Hubble
discovered that the Universe is
expanding, with galaxies moving
away from each other at a rapidly
increasing rate of acceleration

Metaphysical
Philosophy
metaphysical
philosophy
In Western
philosophy,
metaphysics has
become the study of
the fundamental
nature of reality -
what it is, why it is,
and how we are to
understand its
properties.....
Related: -
Alchemy
Ontology
Taxonomy
Classification
Natural History
Natural Philosophy
Systemic
Methodology
String theory is a set of mathematical attempts to
model the four known fundamental interactions -
gravitation, electromagnetism, strong nuclear force,
weak nuclear interaction – clustered into a single,
universal Theory of Wave Dynamics.
In theoretical physics, M-theory is an extension of
string theory in which the 11 dimensions of space-
time are identified as 7 higher-dimensions plus the 4
common dimensions (11D st = 7 hd + 4D).
Proponents believe that the 11-dimensional theory
unites all five 10-dimensional string theories (10D st =
6 hd + 4D) and supersedes them. Though a full
description of the theory is not known, the low-entropy
dynamics are thought to be supergravity interacting
with 2- and 5-dimensional membranes in a single,
unified Theory of Wave Dynamics.
Gabriele Veneziano – is an Italian
theoretical physicist and string
theorist. His 1968 dual resonance
model of the strong interaction was
the first component of string theory to
be described - he is regarded as a
founder of this field of String Theory.
Brian Greene, author of the book
about string theory, The Elegant
Universe, was educated at Harvard
and Oxford, graduating in 1987. After
working at Harvard and Cornell, he is
currently a Professor of Physics and
Mathematics at Columbia.

Metaphysical
Philosophy
Pre-Raphaelite
Philosophy
Related: -
Gothic Revival
Pre-Raphaelite
Movement
Pre-Raphaelite
Brotherhood
The Pre-Raphaelite Movement (also known as the
Pre-Raphaelite Brotherhood or Pre-Raphaelites)
were a group of English painters, poets, and critics,
founded in 1848 by William Holman. Pre-
Raphaelitism sprang from a new mood in English
painting, reflecting the great moral and material
changes of the age which, by the middle of the 19th
century, saw the arrival of a new generation of artists
– who were forerunners of the Modern Art movement.
Major influences included the industrial revolution,
which brought far-reaching social changes - not least
important, a new wealthy Middle Class whose taste
and outlook were formed under new influences -
along with a renewed interest in nature and the arts
and culture of the Middle Ages - the Gothic revival....
The Pre-Raphaelite Brotherhood,
founded in 1848 by William Holman,
rejected post-Enlightenment arts and
society - looking back to the Middle
Ages for artistic / cultural inspiration.
Dante Gabriel Rossetti - John Everett
Millais - Quattrocento - William
Holman Hunt, Ford Madox Brown
Postmodern
philosophy
Postmodernism is a philosophical movement or
tendency which is critical of the fundamental
principles, assumptions and general direction which
underpin classical western philosophy.
Postmodernism emphasises the importance of
discourse, power relationships, personalisation and
individualism as key in the "construction" or
“rebuilding” of the Post-modernist world viewpoint.
Architecture features strongly in the
post-modernistic movement – Aldo
Rossi, Frank Gehry and Terry Farrell

Complexity
Paradigm
From the Paradigm (concept) of Complexity to
System Complexity - philosophical, scientific and
professional disciplines addressing complexity in
their fields all view the Complexity Paradigm as based
on the behaviour of complex systems and the rich
conceptual world of non-linear equations – centred on
the science of turbulence and chaos, strange
attractors, emergence and fractals, self-organisation
and critical system complexity.
Edward Lorenz, John Henry Holland,
Edgar Morin
Disruptive Futurism Disruptive Futurism is a Futurist Framework for
Digital Technology Disruption – Digital Platform and
Service convergence – which, since the year 2000,
has severely impacted on the performance of 52% of
the Fortune 500 listed companies.
Joseph Schumpeter – Austrian
School Economist
Ian Neild – BT Laboratories
Experiential
Philosophy (versus
Argumentative
Philosophy)
The New Philosophy:
Cognitive Science &
Experiential Realism
Experiential Philosophy maintains that real-world
experience has priority over theoretical
argumentation; as Lewis Carroll so brilliantly
demonstrated, even the most logical of arguments
cannot persuade someone who refuses to experience
the rationality of the move from some set of premises
to their logical conclusion
John Dewey - experiential training,
education and learning (1938)
Experiential education and training
refers to a pedagogical philosophy
and methodology concerned with
practical, hands-on learning activities

Metaphysical
Philosophy
Interpretive
Paradigm
Interpretive research operates within a research
paradigm that functions differently from traditional
research in the humanities or social sciences - as it
operates without any prior assumptions or pre-
determined views about findings or outcomes.
Interpretive views have different originations in
different disciplines. Positivism (Deterministic) and
Phenomenological (Interpretive) research and the
growing consensus of a mixed methods approach to
research studies – explains a rapidly increasing
popularity in interpretative research methods.
Schultz, Cicourel and Garfinkel
Interpretive Research is used In
pure research studies, within a
research paradigm that functions
somewhat differently from traditional
research in applied science, the
humanities or social sciences - as it
proceeds without any fixed model,
prior assumptions or pre-determined
views about any of the findings or
outcomes of the research study.
Deterministic
Paradigms –
Positivism (and
Post-positivism)
Positivism is sometimes referred to as the 'scientific
method' or 'science-based research', and in
Management Studies, as ‘strategic positivism’.
Positivism as such is founded on a deterministic,
rationalistic, empiricist philosophy that originated with
Aristotle, Francis Bacon, John Locke, August Comte
and Emmanuel Kant" (Mertens, 2005, p.8) and
"reflects a deterministic philosophy in which causes
probabilistic pre-determined outcomes and effects"
(Creswell, 2003, p.7).
Circa Trova – seek and ye shall find.
Aristotle, Francis Bacon, John Locke,
August Comte and Emmanuel Kant
The scientific researcher observes
the behaviour of a system, formulates
a hypothesis to explain the observed
behaviour, and then designs and
executes an experiment to test how
well his hypothesis predicts the actual
and real observations and outcomes.

Qualitative
Paradigm
Qualitative Methods
- tend to be
deterministic,
interpretive and
subjective in
nature.
When we wish to design a research project to
investigate large volumes of unstructured data
producing and analysing graphical image and text
data sets with a very large sample or set of
information – “Big Data” – then the quantitative
method is preferred. As soon as subjectivity - what
people think or feel about the world - enters into the
scope (e.g. discovering Market Sentiment via Social
Media postings), then the adoption of a qualitative
research method is vital. If your aim is to understand
and interpret people’s subjective experience and the
broad range of meanings that attach to it, then
interviewing, observation and surveying a range of
non-numerical data (which may be textual, visual,
aural) are key strategies you will consider. Research
approaches such as using focus groups, producing
case studies, undertaking narrative or content
analysis, participant observation and ethnographic
research are all important qualitative methods. You
will also want to understand the relationship of
qualitative data to numerical research. Any qualitative
methods pose their own problems with ensuring the
research produces valid and reliable results (see also:
Data Science and working with “Big Data” Analytics.
Qualitative Paradigm. Most
qualitative research texts identify
three primary types of research:-
1. Exploratory – research on a
concept, people, or situation that
the researcher knows little about.
2. Descriptive (Narrative) –
research on a concept, people,
process or situation that the
researcher knows something
about, but just wants to describe
the narrative findings that he/she
has found or observed.
3. Explanatory – involves deriving
a hypothesis from existing
theories and available models,
then testing that hypothesis
through a process of
experimental observation and
data collection.

Quantitative
Paradigm
Quantitative
Methods - tend to
be probabilistic,
analytic and
objective in nature.
When we want to design a research project to test a
hypothesis objectively by capturing and analysing
numerical data sets with a large sample or set of
information – then the quantitative method is
preferred. There are many key issues to consider
when you are designing an experiment , predictive
model, system or some other research project using
quantitative methods - such as randomisation,
selection and sampling.. Also, quantitative research
uses mathematical and statistical means extensively
to produce reliable analysis of its results (see also:
Cluster Analysis and Wave-form Analysis methods).
Quantitative Research refers to the
systematic empirical investigation of
social and scientific phenomena
through system modelling and
statistical analysis - via direct
observation and careful collection of
mathematical, numerical or biometric
datasets, and thorough analysis and
interpretation of the data.
Scientific Research observes and
collects data on the behaviour of a
system, formulates a hypothesis to
explain the observed behaviour, and
then designs and executes an
experiment to test how well his
hypothesis predicts the actual and
real observations and outcomes.

Future Taxonomy
There are some 10-20 Primary Futures Disciplines, 20-30
Futures Paradigms and over 250 Secondary Futures
Specialities documented in various sources – covering
Futures Studies, Strategic Foresight, Military and Business
Strategy, Economic Modelling and Long-range Forecasting,
Business Planning and Financial Analysis –

Future Taxonomy
• The main objective of any Futures Taxonomy is to identify, capture, analyse and
classify the mainstream Futures Studies, Strategic Foresight and Strategy Analysis
Primary Future Disciplines (20-30) Futures Studies Subjects (20-30) – Regimes,
Frameworks and Paradigms, and then to document the Secondary Future
Specialties (over 250) – Models, Methods, Tools and Techniques – and to order,
group, define and describe both the Primary and Secondary subjects in a
comprehensive, consistent, coherent, complete and logical manner.
• This is the first step towards creating a Futures Body of Knowledge (BOK)
• There are some 10-20 Primary Futures Disciplines, 20-30 Futures Paradigms and
over 250 Secondary Specialities documented in various sources – covering Futures
Studies, Strategic Foresight, Military and Business Strategy, Economic Modelling
and Long-range Forecasting, Business Planning and Financial Analysis
• Primary Future Disciplines – 10-20
• Futures Studies Regimes, Frameworks and Paradigms – 20-30
• Secondary Future Specialties – up to 250

Probabilistic Future Viewpoints
• Polemic (Rational) Paradigm - Enlightened Futurism
• Dystopian (Fatalistic) Paradigm – Probabilistic Negativism
• Postmodernism (Reactionary) Paradigm - Structural Futurism
• Complexity (Constructionist) Paradigm - Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
• Metaphysical (Naturalistic, Evolutionary, Adaptive) Paradigm - Gaia Hypothesis
• Mystic (Gnostic, Sophistic, Esoteric, Cathartic) Paradigm – Contemplative Futurism
• Uncertainty (Random, Chaotic, Disorderly, Enthalpy) Paradigm - Disruptive Futurism
• Experiential (Forensic, Deductive, Realist, “Blue Sky”) Paradigm – Pragmatic Futurism
• Qualitative (Narrative, Reasoned) Paradigm - Scenario Forecasting and Impact Analysis
• Simplexity (Reductionist) Paradigm – Loosely-coupled Linear Systems and Game Theory
• Interpretive (Ordered, Systemic, Mechanistic, Entropic) Paradigm – Constructive Futurism
• Quantitative (Logical, Technical) Paradigm - Mathematical Modelling & Statistical Analysis

Deterministic Future Viewpoints
• Utopian (Idealistic) Paradigm - Strategic Positivism
• Humanist (Instructional) Paradigm - Sceptic Futurism
• Dogmatic (Theosophical) Paradigm - Reactionary Futurism
• Utilitarian (Consequential) Paradigm – Egalitarian Futurism
• Extrapolative (Projectionist) Paradigm – Wave, Cycle, Pattern and Trend Analysis
• Steady State (La meme chose - same as it ever was) Paradigm – Constant Futurism
• Hellenistic (Classical) Paradigm – Future of Human Ethics, Morals, Values and Beliefs
• Pre-ordained (Pre-disposed, Stoic) Paradigm - Cognitive Analysis / Intuitive Assimilation
• Elitism (New World Order) - Goal Seeking, Leadership Studies and Stakeholder Analysis
• Existentialist Paradigm (Personal Futures) - Trans-humanism, The Singularity, NLP / EHT
• Empirical (Scientific Determinism, Theoretical Positivism) Paradigm – Hypothetical Futurism
• Predictive (Ordered, Systemic, Mechanistic, Enthalpy) Paradigm – Deconstructionist Futurism

Primary Futures Research Disciplines
• Futures Studies
– History and Analysis of Prediction
– Future Studies – Classification and Taxonomy
– Future Management Primary Disciplines
– Future Management Secondary Specialisations
• Strategic Foresight
– Foresight Regimes, Frameworks and Paradigms
– Foresight Models, Methods, Tools and Techniques
• Qualitative Techniques
• Quantitative Techniques
• Systems Theory - Complexity
• Chaos Theory – Random Events, Uncertainty and Disruption
• Political and Economic Futures
• Science and Technology Futures
• Entrepreneurship and Innovation Futures
• Personal Futures – Trans-humanism, NLP / EHT
• The Future of Philosophy, Knowledge and Values
• Future Beliefs – Moral, Ethical and Religious Futures
• Massive Change – Human Impact and Global Transformation
• Human Futures – Sociology, Anthropology and Cultural Studies
• The Future of Information, Knowledge Management and Decision Support

Primary Futures Disciplines
Primary
Futures
Disciplines
9.
Future of Philosophy,
Knowledge & Values
7 .
Future of Information &
Knowledge Management
10. Future Beliefs –
Moral, Ethical
& Religious Futures
1. Futures Studies
4.
Science and
Technology Futures
12. Human Futures –
Sociology, Anthropology
and Cultural Studies
3.
Political & Economic
Futures
6.
Entrepreneurship &
Innovation Futures
2. Strategic Foresight
5.
Environment, Climate &
Ecology Futures
8.
Personal Futures –
Trans-humanism
11. Massive Change –
Human Impact and
Global Transformation

Primary Futures Disciplines
• Futures Studies
– History and Analysis of Prediction
– Future Studies – Classification and Taxonomy
– Future Management Primary Disciplines
– Future Management Secondary Specialisations
• Strategic Foresight
– Foresight Regimes, Frameworks and Paradigms
– Foresight Models, Methods, Tools and Techniques
• Quantitative Techniques
• Qualitative Techniques
• Chaos Theory – Random Events, Uncertainty and Disruption
• Political and Economic Futures
• Entrepreneurship and Innovation Futures
• Personal Futures – Trans-humanism, NLP / EHT
• The Future of Philosophy, Knowledge and Values
• Future Beliefs – Moral, Ethical and Religious Futures
• Massive Change – Human Impact and Global Transformation
• Human Futures – Sociology, Anthropology and Cultural Studies
• The Future of Information, Knowledge Management and Decision Support

Secondary Future Specialties
• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Forecasting and Foresight
• Back-casting and Back-sight
• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
• Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
• Political Science and Policy Studies
• Linear Systems and Game Theory
• War-gaming and Lanchester Theory
• Complex Systems and Chaos Theory
• Integral Studies and Future Thinking
• Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking
• Predictive Surveys and Delphi Oracle
• Visioning, Spontaneity and Creativity
• Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition
• Developmental & Accelerative Studies
• Systems & Technology Trends Analysis
• Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
• Collaboration, Facilitation & Mentoring
• Black Swan Events - Weak Signals, Wild
Cards, Chaos, Uncertainty & Disruption
• Economic Modelling & Planning
• Financial Planning and Analysis
• Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies
• Horizon Scanning, Tracking & Monitoring
• Intellectual Property and Knowledge
• Critical Futures and Creative Thinking
• Emerging Issues and Technology Trends
• Patterns, Trends & Extrapolation Analysis
• Linear Systems & Random Interactions
• Cross Impact Analysis and Factors of
Global Transformation and Change
• Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market
Research, Analysis and Prediction
• The Future of Religious Beliefs - Theology,
Divinity, Ritual, Ethics and Value Studies
• Divination – Hermetic, Mystic, Esoteric
and Enlightened Spiritual Practices

• The Cosmology Revolution
– Dark Energy, Dark Mass
– String Theory and the Nature of Matter
• SETI – The Search for Extra-Terrestrial
Planetary Systems, Life and Intelligence
• Nano-Technology, Nuclear Physics and
Quantum Mechanics
• The Energy Revolution - Nuclear Fusion
Hydrolysis and Clean Energy
• Science and Society Futures – the Social
Impact of Technology
• Smart Cities of the Future
• The Information Revolution – Internet
Connectivity and the Future of the
Always-on Digitally Connected Society
• Digital Connectivity, Smart Devices, the
Smart Grid & Cloud Computing Futures
• Content Analysis (“Big Data”) – Data Set
“mashing”, Data Mining & Analytics
• Earth and Life Sciences – the Future of
Biology, Geology & Geographic Science
• Environmental Sustainability Studies –
Climatology, Ecology and Geography
• Human Activity – Climate Change and
Future Environmental Degradation –
Desertification and De-forestation
• Human Populations - Profiling, Analysis,
Streaming and Segmentation
• Human Futures - Population Drift and
Urbanisation - Human Population Curves
and Growth Limit Analysis
• The Future of Agriculture, Forestry,
Fisheries, Agronomy & Food Production
• Terrain Mapping and Land Use – Future
of Topology, Topography & Cartography
• Future Natural Landscape Planning,
Environmental Modelling and Mapping
• Future Geographic Information Systems,
Spatial Analysis & Sub-surface Modelling

• Macro-Economic and Financial Futures
• Micro-Economic and Business Futures
• Strategic Visioning – Possible, Probable &
Alternative Futures
• Strategy Design – Vision, Mission and
Strategy Themes
• Strategy Development – Outcomes, Goals
and Objectives
• Performance Management – Target Setting
and Action Planning
• Critical Success Factors (CSF’s) and Key
Performance indicators (KPI’s)
• Business Process Management (BPM)
• Balanced Scorecard Method
• Planning and Strategy
– (foundation, intermediate & advanced)
• Modelling and Forecasting
• Threat Assessment & Risk Management
• Layers of Power, Trust and Reputation
• Leadership Studies, Goal-seeking and
Stakeholder Analysis
• Military Science, Peace and Conflict
Studies – War, Terrorism and Insecurity
• Corporate Finance and Strategic
Investment Planning Futures
• Management Science and Business
Administration Futures
• Future Management and Analysis of Global
Exploitation of Natural Resources
• Social Networks and Connectivity
• Consumerism and the rise of the new
Middle Classes
• The BRICs and emerging powers
– • Brazil • Russia • India • China •
• The Seven Waves of Globalisation
– • Goods • People • Capital • Services
– • Ideology • Economic Control •
– • Geo-Political Domination •

• Human Values, Ethics and Beliefs
• History, Culture and Human Identity
• Human Geography & Industrial Futures
• Human Factors and Behavioural Theory
• Anthropology, Sociology and Factors of
Cultural Change
• Human Rites, Rituals and Customs - the
Future of Cults, Sects and Tribalism
• Ethnographic and Demographic Futures
• Epidemiology, Morbidity and Actuarial
Science Futures
• Infrastructure Strategy, Regional Master
Planning and Urban Renewal
• Future Townscape Envisioning. Planning
Modelling and Virtual Terrain Mapping
• The Future of Urban and Infrastructure
Master Planning, Zoning and Control
• Architecture and Design Futures - living
in the Built Environment of the Future
• Trans-humanism – The Future Human
State – Qualities, Capabilities, Capacities
• The Future of Medical Science, Bio-
Technology and Genetic Engineering
• The Future of the Human Condition -
Health, Wealth and Wellbeing
• The Future of Biomechanics, Elite Sports
and Professional Athletics
• Personal Futures – Motivational Studies,
Life Coaching and Personal Training
• Positive Thinking – Self-Awareness, Self-
Improvement & Personal Development
• Positive Behavioural Psychology and
Cognitive Therapy - NLP and EHT
• Intuitive Assimilation and Cognitive
Analysis
• Predictive Envisioning and Foresight
Development
• Contemplative Mediation and Psychic
Methods

• Business Strategy, Transformation and
Programme Management Futures
• Next Generation Enterprises (NGE) –
Envisioning, Planning and Modelling
• Multi-tier Collaborative Future Business
Target Operating Models (eTOM)
• Corporate Responsibility / Triple Bottom
Line Management
• Regulatory Compliance - Enterprise
Governance, Reporting and Controls
• Future Economic Modelling, Long-range
Forecasting and Financial Analysis
• The Future of Organisational Theory
and Operational Analysis
• Business Innovation and Product
Planning Futures
• Technology Innovation and Product
Design Futures
• Product Engineering and Production
Planning Futures
• Enterprise Resource Planning and
Production Management Futures
• Marketing Needs Analysis, Propositions
and Product Life-cycle Management
• The Future of Marketing Services,
Communications and Advertising
• The Future of Media, Entertainment and
Multi-channel Communications
• The Future of Leisure, Travel & Tourism –
Culture, Restaurants and Entertainment
• The Future of Spectator Events - Elite
Team Sports and Professional Athletics
• The Future of Art, Literature and Music
• The Future of Performance Arts, Theatre
and the Moving Image
• Science Fiction & Images of the Future
• Interpreting Folklore, Legends & Myths –
Theology, Numerology & Lexicography
• Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film
and Arts

Strategic Foresight as
Knowledge Management

Thinking about the Future…..
• The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds.
As we have learned from recent experience, the future is not a straightforward
extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in
which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be
factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk management frameworks and
incorporated into enterprise decision-making structures and processes.
• Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a narrow
perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A
concentration of focus may risk overlooking those Weak Signals indicating potential
issues and events, agents and catalysts of change. These Weak Signals – along with
their resultant Wild Cards, Black Swan Events and global transformations - are even
now taking shape at the very periphery of corporate awareness, perception and
vision – or even just beyond.
• These agents of change may precipitate global impact-level events which either
threaten the very survival of the organisation - or present novel and unexpected
opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to include weak signals and
peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process may therefore be critical in
contributing towards the organisation's continued growth, success, well being and
survival.

Thinking about the Future
THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE -
• It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive
factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty.
Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of
failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business.
• The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually
unfolds. As we have all learned from recent experience, the future is not a
simple extrapolation of linear, single-domain trends. We now have to
consider ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically
disruptive events may be factored into enterprise strategy development,
threat assessment and risk management frameworks and incorporated into
enterprise decision-making structures and processes.

Thinking about the Future
THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE -
• Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a
narrow perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and
targets. A concentration of focus may risk overlooking those Weak Signals
indicating potential issues and events, agents and catalysts of change. These
Weak Signals – along with their resultant Wild Cards, Black Swan Events and
global transformations - are even now taking shape at the very periphery of
corporate awareness, perception and vision – or even just beyond.
• These agents of change may precipitate global impact-level events which
either threaten the very survival of the organisation - or present novel and
unexpected opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to include
weak signals and peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process
may therefore be critical in contributing towards the organisation's continued
growth, success, well being and survival.

Futures Studies
• Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, practice and art
of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures. Futures studies
(colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to
understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is
a novel, emerging pattern or trend. Part of the discipline thus seeks a
systematic and extrapolation-based understanding of both past and
present events - in order to determine the probability and impact of
future events, patterns and trends.
• Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's
changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional content
and strategies, beliefs and opinions, forecasts and predictions with respect
to shaping tomorrow. It includes analysing the sources, agents and causes,
patterns and trends of both change and stability in an attempt to develop
foresight and to map possible, probable and alternative futures.

Foresight
• Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning
horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures
studies (Aguillar-Milan, Ansoff, Feather, van der Hijden, Slaughter et all) - but was also
highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design,
massive change, science and technology futures, economic, social and demographic
policy, fashion and design - and the analysis of "weak signals" and "wild cards",
"future trends“ "critical technologies“ and “cultural evolution".
– The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some
exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is an action-
oriented discipline (via the planning link) it will rarely be applied to perspectives beyond a
few decades out. Where major infrastructure decisions such as petrology reservoir
exploitation, aircraft design, power station construction, transport hubs and town master
planning decisions are concerned - then the planning horizon may well be half a century.
– Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what
is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct
multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be
known as positive visions, success scenarios or aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative
scenarios will be a major part of the output of a Foresight study, with the decision about
what preferred future to build being left to other mechanisms (Planning and Strategy).

Strategic Foresight
• Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent
and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational
ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and
to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures
methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287).
• Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are defined via
Strategic Foresight and are determined by design, planning and management - so
that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with
our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired
outcomes could thus be fulfilled.
– Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform
to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be
fulfilled.
– Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures
offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a
preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by
discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future
descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives.

Risk Management
• Risk Management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and
planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a
sequence of activities using various resources: -
– Risk Research – Risk Identification – Scenario Planning & Impact Analysis – Risk Assessment – Risk
Prioritization – Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning – Risk Mitigation
• Risk Management strategies may include: -
– Transferring the risk to another party
– Avoiding the risk
– Reducing the negative effect of the risk
– Accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk .
• For any given set of Risk Management Scenarios, a prioritization process ranks those risks with
the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurrence to be handled first – and
those risks with a lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then
handled subsequently in descending order of impact.
• In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of
risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss -versus risks with higher potential loss
but lower probability of occurrence -can often be misleading.

Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
• Scenario Panning and Impact Analysis: - In any Opportunity / Threat Assessment Scenario, a
prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability
of occurring to be handled first - subsequent risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower
consequential losses are then handled in descending order. As a foresight concept, Wild Card or
Black Swan events refer to those events which have a low probability of occurrence - but an
inordinately high impact when they do occur.
– Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning have become key tools in policy making and strategic planning for
many governments and global enterprises. We are now moving into a period of time impacted by
unprecedented and accelerating transformation by rapidly evolving catalysts and agents of change in a
world of increasingly uncertain, complex and interwoven global events.
– Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis have served us well as a strategic planning tools for the last 15
years or so - but there are also limitations to this technique in this period of unprecedented complexity and
change. In support of Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis new approaches have to be explored and
integrated into our risk management and strategic planning processes.
• Back-casting and Back-sight: - “Wild Card” or “Black Swan” events are ultra-extreme
manifestations with a very low probability of, occurrence - but an inordinately high impact when
they do occur. In any post-apocalyptic “Black Swan Event” Scenario Analysis, we can use Causal
Layer Analysis (CLA) techniques in order to analyse and review our Risk Management Strategies –
with a view to identifying those Weak Signals which may have predicated subsequent appearances
of unexpected Wild Card or Black Swan events.

Weak Signals and Wild Cards
• “Wild Card” or "Black Swan" manifestations are extreme and unexpected events
which have a very low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately high impact
when they do happen Trend-making and Trend-breaking agents or catalysts of
change may predicate, influence or cause wild card events which are very hard - or
even impossible - to anticipate, forecast or predict.
• In any chaotic, fast-evolving and highly complex global environment, as is currently
developing and unfolding across the world today, the possibility of any such "Wild
Card” or "Black Swan" events arising may, nevertheless, be suspected - or even
expected. "Weak Signals" are subliminal indicators or signs which may be detected
amongst the background noise - that in turn point us towards any "Wild Card” or
"Black Swan" random, chaotic, disruptive and / or catastrophic events which may be
on the horizon, or just beyond......
• Back-casting and Back-sight: - In a post-apocalyptic Black Swan Event Scenario, we
can use Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) techniques in order to analyse and review our
Risk Management Strategies to identify those Weak Signals which may have
predicted, suggested, pointed towards or indicated subsequent Wild Cards or Black
Swan Events – in order to discover changes and improvements to strengthen
Enterprise Risk Management Frameworks.

• Foresight and Precognition – Contemplative, mystic, meditative and psychic methods for pre-cognitive
viewing of the future and how the future will unfold. These activities have been recorded throughout
history (Josephus, Nostradamus) and are well known within certain cultures (Central American Indians)
and government agencies (US and Soviet Military) - and may also involve the use of hypnotic or
hallucinogenic states.
• The Intelligence Revolution – Artificial Intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles -
and new virtual worlds will become so realistic that they will rival the physical world. Robots with human-
level intelligence may finally become a reality, and at the ultimate stage of mastery, we'll even be able to
merge human capacities with machine intelligence and attributes – via the man-machine interface.
• The Biotech Revolution – Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health and
longevity: DNA screening could prevent many diseases, gene therapy could cure them and, thanks to
laboratory-grown organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily
available. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could be slowed or even halted.
• Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to expand current human capacities,
supporting the use of future science and technology to enhance human capabilities and qualities, in order
to overcome undesirable and unnecessary aspects of the present human condition.
• The Quantum Revolution – The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science
fact - from meta-materials with mind-boggling properties like invisibility through limitless quantum energy
and room temperature superconductors to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even forecast
that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re-arranges molecules
to produce everything from almost anything. Yet how will we ultimately use our mastery of matter? Like
Samson, will we use our strength to bring down the temple? Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to
match our technology?

• Renewable Resources. Any natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a
rate comprisable to or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Some renewable resources
- solar radiation, tides, wind and hydroelectricity, nuclear fusion - are also classified as perpetual resources, in
that they will never be able to be consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal. The
term renewable resource also carries the implication of prolonged or perpetual sustainability for the processing
and absorption of waste products via natural ecological and environmental processes.
• Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or mechanism that can be maintained indefinitely at a certain
constant level or state – without showing any long-term degradation, decline or collapse.. This concept, in its
environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems - such as the
ecology, environment the and man-made systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries - and the planet's
climate and natural processes and cycles upon which they depend.
• Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It includes both utopian and
dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment and geology are
dominated by human manipulation –
– Human impact is now the major factor in climate change and environmental degradation.
– Extinction rate is currently greater than in the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction event
– Man now moves more rock and earth than do natural geological processes.
• In the past, many complex human societies (Clovis, Mayan, Easter Island) have failed, died out or just simply
disappeared - often as a result of either climate change or their own growth-associated impacts on ecological
and environmental support systems. Thus there is a clear precedent for modern industrial societies - which
continue to grow unchecked in terms of globalisation complexity and scale, population growth and drift,
urbanisation and environmental impact – societies which are ultimately unsustainable, and so in turn must also
be destined for sudden and catastrophic instability, failure and collapse.

Complexity Paradigms
System Complexity is typically characterised by the number of elements in a system,
the number of interactions and the nature (type) of those interactions. One of the
problems in addressing complexity issues has always been distinguishing between the
large number of elements and relationships, or interactions evident in chaotic
(unconstrained) systems - and the still large, but significantly smaller number of
elements and interactions found in ordered (constrained) systems. Orderly
Frameworks act to both reduce the total number of elements and interactions – with
fewer and smaller classes of more-uniform elements – and with less regimes of
reduced size featuring more highly-ordered, internally correlated and constrained
interactions – as compared with Disorderly Frameworks.

Complexity Paradigms
• Simplexity (Reductionist) Paradigm – Linear Systems & Chaotic Interaction
– Linear Systems and Game Theory
– War-gaming and Lanchester Theory
• Entropic (Ordered, Systemic, Mechanistic) Paradigm – Structural Futurism
– Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
• Complexity (Constructionist) Paradigm – Complex Systems & Chaos Theory
– Complex Ordered Systems
– Complex Disordered Systems
• Uncertainty (Random, Chaotic, Disorderly, Enthalpy) Paradigm – Disruptive Futurism
– Cosmology
– Climatology
– Black Swan Events - Weak Signals, Wild Cards, Chaos, Uncertainty & Disruption

Abiliti: Future Systems explores emerging technologies

Abiliti: Future Systems explores emerging technologies

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (14)

Similar to Abiliti: Future Systems explores emerging technologies

Similar to Abiliti: Future Systems explores emerging technologies (20)

More from Nigel Tebbutt 奈杰尔泰巴德

More from Nigel Tebbutt 奈杰尔泰巴德 (7)