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Institute of Asset Management presentation on Critical Infrastructure Resilience: what's it worth, how do we make it happen?

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Presentation given by Dr Juliet Mian, Technical Lead for the Resilience Shift at the Institute of Asset Management's Annual Conference 2018.

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Institute of Asset Management presentation on Critical Infrastructure Resilience: what's it worth, how do we make it happen?

  1. 1. Critical infrastructure resilience: what’s it worth, how do we make it happen? www.resilienceshift.org info@resilienceshift.org @resilienceshift The Resilience Shift
  2. 2. Presentation to the Institute of Asset Management Global Conference, Day 3 27th June 2018 Dr Juliet Mian, Technical Director, the Resilience Shift (Associate Director, Arup Infrastructure Advisory) www.resilienceshift.org info@resilienceshift.org @resilienceshift The Resilience Shift
  3. 3. Overview 1. The Resilience Shift – why, what, how? • Lloyd’s Register Foundation & Arup 2. Our areas of focus 3. What does this mean for Asset Management? 4. Investing in resilience – where are we, and where should we be? 5. How to scale it up 6. As asset managers, what is your biggest ‘ask’?
  4. 4. Lloyd’s Register Foundation’s charitable mission: for public benefit 1. Enhance the safety of life and property: To secure for the benefit of the community high technical standards of design, manufacture, construction, maintenance, operation and performance for the purpose of enhancing the safety of life and property at sea, on land and in the air 2. Advancement of Public Education: The advancement of public education including within the transportation industries and any other engineering and technological disciplines 4
  5. 5. The Foundation’s high-level strategy Four Strategic Themes • Promoting safety and public understanding of risk • Advancement of skills and education • Supporting excellent scientific research • Accelerating the application of research Four Research Funding Priorities • Structural integrity and systems performance • Resilience engineering • Human and social factors • Emergent technologies 5
  6. 6. Arup as host institution Dr Nancy Kete, Executive Director
  7. 7. The safety and well-being of billions of people depends on infrastructure systems that can deliver critical services … that can provide, protect or connect us - whatever the future has in store. Why?
  8. 8. What? A global initiative to build resilience within and between key critical infrastructure sectors. We want to re-focus professional decision- making practice from treating infrastructure as an unconnected asset to a socio-technical system. A socio-technical infrastructure system must provide services under both ordinary and extraordinary circumstances.
  9. 9. Our vision Bridges in Workington, Cumbria, destroyed during the 2009 floods, resulting in one fatality and significant disruption Engineered structures and infrastructure will be not only safer but better.
  10. 10. Decisions made along the value chain will account for how critical infrastructure contributes to the resilience of the larger socio-technical- ecological system.
  11. 11. Energy Systems 2035 www.arup.com Critical infrastructure will be planned, designed, delivered and operated to serve communities (protect, connect, provide) under ordinary and extraordinary circumstances. Energy Systems 2035 www.arup.com
  12. 12. Expected Outcomes
  13. 13. Expected Outcomes Common understanding across sectors Use of integrated systems approaches Adoption of tools to value resilience Resilience concepts in education Adoption of transformativ e technologies Adoption of resilience- based design
  14. 14. Three workstreams 1. How to “do” resilience • To accelerate the adoption of resilience theories in practice. • To make it tangible, practical and relevant • To provide direction for dealing with the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of the world. 2. How to value resilience • How much does resilience matter? • To whom? • How do we know? 3. How to scale-up resilience practices so they become business as usual • Working in different sectors to accelerate theory to practice • Applying resilience practice within and between critical infrastructure sectors • Incentivising change in practice
  15. 15. How?
  16. 16. How? • Projects • Investments • Round tables • Events • Ideas pipeline • Outputs
  17. 17. A value-driven approach
  18. 18. So what? In the context of Asset Management • Ageing and deteriorating assets • Interconnected systems • Extreme weather events and climate change • Long life (and short life) assets and uncertain future • Existing and new technologies (opportunities and challenges) • Humans in the system • Changing customer expectations • Tension between resilience and efficiency/productivity
  19. 19. So what? In the context of Asset Management • Ageing and deteriorating assets • Interconnected systems • Extreme weather events and climate change • Long life assets and uncertain future • Humans in the system • New technologies (opportunities and challenges) • Changing customer expectations • Tension between resilience and efficiency/productivity “Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one.” (Voltaire)
  20. 20. So what? A systems view Humans in the system A lifecycle approach Value chain concepts Focus on the service that assets and systems deliver Contingency planning and resilience analysis are considered X Decisions are not routinely made based on the need to enhance resilience of our infrastructure systems
  21. 21. Challenges • Resilience of what, to what? • How ‘resilient’ is good enough? How can we measure it? • Competing demands on limited funds • Legacy design
  22. 22. Infrastructure system-of-systems The Future of National Infrastructure: A system-of- systems approach, Cambridge University Press
  23. 23. A tiered approach for tools and models Thanks to Igor Linkov Tier I Screening models or indexes to identify easy improvements and guide focus of further analysis Tier II Detailed models using decision analysis to prioritize system performance and investments Tier III Complex modelling of interactions between sub-systems and using robust scenario analysis Decrease resources, capital expenditures Increase model complexity, data needs Resilience Tiered Approach
  24. 24. Transformative technology
  25. 25. Smart infrastructure informing and creating resilience…. BBC
  26. 26. Smart infrastructure causing fragility….
  27. 27. Valuing resilience efficiency resilience Image Source: Dino Hristopoulos/Creative Commons
  28. 28. Valuing resilience efficiency resilience reduce waste lean just-in time productivity slack diversity back-up flexibility adaptability alternatives optimisation centralised decision-making self- organisation profit growth critical functionality
  29. 29. How do we justify the value of resilience? ordinary extraordinary short term long term known unknown system boundariesindividual assets direct costs indirect costs tangible costs avoided costs design assumptions uncertain and dynamic future
  30. 30. From…
  31. 31. From…
  32. 32. Bostick et al., 2018 Thanks to Dr Paul Smith, Arup To…
  33. 33. Thanks to Igor Linkov Bostick et al., 2018 To…
  34. 34. ‘Understanding the Landscape’ www.resilienceshift.org info@resilienceshift.org @resilienceshift The Resilience Shift
  35. 35. My questions to you….
  36. 36. The asset management community A systems view A lifecycle approach Value chain concepts Focus on the service that assets and systems deliver Contingency planning and resilience analysis explicitly covered Humans in the system X Decisions are not routinely made based on the need to enhance resilience of our infrastructure systems
  37. 37. because… ? Decisions driven by cost-efficiency ? Lowest lifecycle cost (not compatible with VUCA world) ? Balancing shareholder value and end-users ? Insufficient evidence of the value of resilience ? Top down mandate not there ? Who pays vs who benefits ? CBA incompatible with resilience ? Haven’t got the tools or processes
  38. 38. To our final challenge – how to scale it up… • Do you have the tools you need to include resilience in your decision making? • Do you know how to value resilience (and who benefits)? • What do you need to embrace ‘a resilience shift’? • What are the levers? • What needs to change? • Who has the greatest influence?
  39. 39. Thank you www.resilienceshift.org info@resilienceshift.org juliet.mian@arup.com @resilienceshift The Resilience Shift

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