Retail Educators and Recruiters

1. Educator & Recruiter Meeting:
The Future of Retail

2. 2017
A DISCUSSION ON THE RETAIL APOCALYPSE:
USING DATA TO SEPARATE TRUTH FROM FICTION

3. What we’re hearing:
Retail jobs are disappearing

4. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11,200
11,700
12,200
12,700
13,200
13,700
14,200
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Retail Employment (000's)
Retail employment: 10 year view
 Retail employment
is higher now than
it was before the
recession
 Since January 2017,
retail has lost
124,000 jobs
 That represents a
drop of 0.9%

5. There’s a problem with the government data
though…

6. Non-Retail Jobs
Non-Retail Jobs
NAICS classifies you based on where you work,
not who you work for
If you work in a building where retail sales occur, you’re a retail
employee - if you don’t you get classified elsewhere
Headquarters
Call Center Factory
Stores
Warehouse
XYZ Retail
Company
Retail Jobs
6

7. Impacts of NAICS on retail
 High-wage occupations
that exist outside of store-
based locations don’t
benefit retail, giving the
impression of a low-wage
industry
50,372
156,124
2012 2016
Retail transportation & supply chain job openings
 The retail industry derives
no employment uplift from
non store-based roles in fast
growing job segments such
as supply chain and
technology
$32,120
$46,940 $50,720
$56,190 $56,630
$69,680
Retail Trade Transportation
& Warehousing
Manufacturing Wholesale
Trade
Construction Finance &
Insurance
BLS Data: Mean Wages by Industry
7
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight Database

8. What we’re hearing: store closures
are at an all time high

9. What you hear
about store closings
 Almost 7,000 stores closed in
2017
 Closures up 229% over last year
 Retailers are going bankrupt

10. What you don’t hear about store closings
 There are over 1 million retail establishments in the USA – between
60,000 – 80,000 stores close every year as part of the natural ebb and
flow of business
 They’re only counting the closures of a small sample of retailers that
aren’t necessarily representative of the broader retail industry
 Lots of stores are opening too…

11. Recent data from IHL Group shows…
 Net increase in
store openings of
over 4,000 in 2017
 For each company
closing a store, 2.7
are opening stores
 751 brands are
increasing their
store counts vs. 278
that are reducing
store counts

12. Googling ‘top US bankruptcies 2017’
 First three pages of results are
ALL about retail bankruptcies

13. What you don’t hear about bankruptcies
 Of the top 20 bankruptcies in 2016 & 2017, only one was a retail
company
 Nine of the top 10 bankruptcies in 2016 were energy companies. Three
of the top 10 in 2017 were financial services companies
 Many other industries have much higher bankruptcy and ‘death’ rates
that retail

14. What we’re hearing: Amazon is
killing retail

15. 92.2% 92.0% 91.8% 91.8% 91.5%
7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.5%
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Online sales In-store sales
In-store vs. online sales over past 5 quarters
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Ecommerce as a % of retail sales

16. 9 of the top 10 online retailers have physical stores
Largest online retailers

17. What we are hearing: Robots will
take retail jobs

18. 18
Retailers are investing (and hiring) in key
areas of their businesses
Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight Database
200,309
524,855
2012 2017
Total retail job postings for supply chain and
logistics
(2012 vs. 2017)
195,899
299,205
2012 2017
Total retail job postings for engineering and
technology
(2012 vs. 2017)
48% of retailers increased their technology
budgets in 2016
19% of retailers were investing in new
fulfillment and shipping initiatives in 2016

19. 6,536
873
146
8,855
4,208
685
Data Analysis Machine Learning Skills Natural Language Processing
Total retail job postings by skill cluster
(2012 vs. 2017)
2012 2017
Innovation creates demand for new types of
skill sets
Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight Database

20. Demand for customer service and
management skills is expected to grow
• Customer service
• Sales
• Merchandising
• Project management
• Employee training
• Accounting
Rapidly growing
skillsets for
retailers
Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight Database

21. Want to learn more?
• For the latest talking points to correct the misperception of the retail
industry: https://nrf.com/resources/future-of-retail
• For insights and state-level data showcasing retail’s impact on the U.S.
economy: https://nrf.com/advocacy/retails-impact
• For data proving retail’s value on a resume:
https://nrf.com/resources/retail-library/retails-value-resume-how-jobs-
retail-prepare-americas-workforce-success
• For the latest data on consumer behavior and trends, refreshed
quarterly: https://nrf.com/consumer-view
• To be the first to know about all of NRF’s recent research, subscribe to
our research alerts: https://nrf.com/connect/newsletters

22. Questions?