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Education & Recruiter Meeting: The Future of Retail

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Retail Educators and Recruiters

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Education & Recruiter Meeting: The Future of Retail

  1. 1. Educator & Recruiter Meeting: The Future of Retail
  2. 2. 2017 A DISCUSSION ON THE RETAIL APOCALYPSE: USING DATA TO SEPARATE TRUTH FROM FICTION
  3. 3. What we’re hearing: Retail jobs are disappearing
  4. 4. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 11,200 11,700 12,200 12,700 13,200 13,700 14,200 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Retail Employment (000's) Retail employment: 10 year view  Retail employment is higher now than it was before the recession  Since January 2017, retail has lost 124,000 jobs  That represents a drop of 0.9%
  5. 5. There’s a problem with the government data though…
  6. 6. Non-Retail Jobs Non-Retail Jobs NAICS classifies you based on where you work, not who you work for If you work in a building where retail sales occur, you’re a retail employee - if you don’t you get classified elsewhere Headquarters Call Center Factory Stores Warehouse XYZ Retail Company Retail Jobs 6
  7. 7. Impacts of NAICS on retail  High-wage occupations that exist outside of store- based locations don’t benefit retail, giving the impression of a low-wage industry 50,372 156,124 2012 2016 Retail transportation & supply chain job openings  The retail industry derives no employment uplift from non store-based roles in fast growing job segments such as supply chain and technology $32,120 $46,940 $50,720 $56,190 $56,630 $69,680 Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Construction Finance & Insurance BLS Data: Mean Wages by Industry 7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight Database
  8. 8. What we’re hearing: store closures are at an all time high
  9. 9. What you hear about store closings  Almost 7,000 stores closed in 2017  Closures up 229% over last year  Retailers are going bankrupt
  10. 10. What you don’t hear about store closings  There are over 1 million retail establishments in the USA – between 60,000 – 80,000 stores close every year as part of the natural ebb and flow of business  They’re only counting the closures of a small sample of retailers that aren’t necessarily representative of the broader retail industry  Lots of stores are opening too…
  11. 11. Recent data from IHL Group shows…  Net increase in store openings of over 4,000 in 2017  For each company closing a store, 2.7 are opening stores  751 brands are increasing their store counts vs. 278 that are reducing store counts
  12. 12. Googling ‘top US bankruptcies 2017’  First three pages of results are ALL about retail bankruptcies
  13. 13. What you don’t hear about bankruptcies  Of the top 20 bankruptcies in 2016 & 2017, only one was a retail company  Nine of the top 10 bankruptcies in 2016 were energy companies. Three of the top 10 in 2017 were financial services companies  Many other industries have much higher bankruptcy and ‘death’ rates that retail
  14. 14. What we’re hearing: Amazon is killing retail
  15. 15. 92.2% 92.0% 91.8% 91.8% 91.5% 7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.5% Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Online sales In-store sales In-store vs. online sales over past 5 quarters Source: U.S. Census Bureau Ecommerce as a % of retail sales
  16. 16. 9 of the top 10 online retailers have physical stores Largest online retailers
  17. 17. What we are hearing: Robots will take retail jobs
  18. 18. 18 Retailers are investing (and hiring) in key areas of their businesses Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight Database 200,309 524,855 2012 2017 Total retail job postings for supply chain and logistics (2012 vs. 2017) 195,899 299,205 2012 2017 Total retail job postings for engineering and technology (2012 vs. 2017) 48% of retailers increased their technology budgets in 2016 19% of retailers were investing in new fulfillment and shipping initiatives in 2016
  19. 19. 6,536 873 146 8,855 4,208 685 Data Analysis Machine Learning Skills Natural Language Processing Total retail job postings by skill cluster (2012 vs. 2017) 2012 2017 Innovation creates demand for new types of skill sets Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight Database
  20. 20. Demand for customer service and management skills is expected to grow • Customer service • Sales • Merchandising • Project management • Employee training • Accounting Rapidly growing skillsets for retailers Source: Burning Glass Labor Insight Database
  21. 21. Want to learn more? • For the latest talking points to correct the misperception of the retail industry: https://nrf.com/resources/future-of-retail • For insights and state-level data showcasing retail’s impact on the U.S. economy: https://nrf.com/advocacy/retails-impact • For data proving retail’s value on a resume: https://nrf.com/resources/retail-library/retails-value-resume-how-jobs- retail-prepare-americas-workforce-success • For the latest data on consumer behavior and trends, refreshed quarterly: https://nrf.com/consumer-view • To be the first to know about all of NRF’s recent research, subscribe to our research alerts: https://nrf.com/connect/newsletters
  22. 22. Questions?

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