What are the lessons that Crossrail 2 can learn from Crossrail to ensure it's delivery and achieve it's objectives?

1. London Residential Summit
“What are the lessons that Crossrail 2
can learn from Crossrail to ensure it’s
delivery and achieve it’s objectives?”
William Jackson
Property Consultant
Crossrail 2

2. The National Infrastructure Commission made the case for Crossrail 2
• Independent body established by government to look at major
infrastructure investment across the UK
• They looked at Crossrail 2 and recommended it should be taken forward ‘as
a priority’
• Findings were supported by government,
subject to a number of recommendations...

3. the recommendations were ....
...Business case
• Revised TfL/DfT business
case by March 2017, to
include developed plans on
costs, funding, housing and
stations
• DfT also expect an
assessment of strategic
alternatives
...Funding
• London must contribute “more
than half” the cost
• Explore new funding options, incl
further devolution
• Maximise private sector
involvement in stations and
surrounding areas.
• Funding agreement in principle
required pre Hybrid bill
submission
...Affordability
• Strong case for delaying the
New Southgate branch
• Examine costs and benefits of
individual stations (incl King’s
Rd)
• Govt response: Updated
business case to include
detailed options to reduce the
£31bn cost by at least £4bn
...Housing
• TfL to set out a transformative
plan to deliver 200,000 homes ...
this could include MDCs and
revised route-wide planning
guidance
• CR2 should be at the heart of
new London Plan
• Agreement on housing measures
required pre hybrid bill
submission3

4. Reinforced by the Growth Commission- sustainable economic growth, 200,000
new jobs and 200,000 new homes
4
Crossrail 2 would free up space on the
National Rail network, meaning there
could be more trains from destinations
across the region. Towns and cities like
Basingstoke, Cambridge, Portsmouth
and Southampton would all benefit
despite not being on the route
Crossrail 2 would transform
travel across London and the
wider South East, providing
direct train services to
destinations across the region
from the Solent to the Wash.

5. London is growing rapidly
The population will
reach
by 2041 – a 22%
increase from 2015
and the equivalent to
adding the combined
populations of
Birmingham and
Glasgow during this
time
10.5 million
5

6. 6
By 2041, there will be 5 million more trips per day, an increase of 23% on today
65% increase inTube
passenger kilometres
85% increase in number
of Londoners over the age of
70
18% increase in Bus
passenger kilometres
8% increase in car traffic
26% increase in van
traffic
40% increase in Rail
passenger kilometres

7. Population growth particularly across the North East of the Capital
7

8. Transport demand will outstrip capacity by 2031
8

9. Demand on London rail andTube
will increase by 53% and 65% per
year up to 2031
HS2 will increase the no.
of passengers using
EustonTube station daily
from 60,000 to 120,000
by 2041, making onward
travel difficult.
Key pressure points focused on the South
West – North East axis. Significant
congestion and overcrowding on the South
West mainline where demand will increase
by 40% by 2041.
Significant congestion on theTube, particularly
Victoria, Jubilee, District and Northern lines with
5+ people standing per m²
Demand on
London rail and
Tube will increase
by 53% and 65%
per year up to 2031
17 Nationally significant
stations such asWaterloo,
Euston,Clapham Junction
andVictoria facing daily
closure by 2041
London’s transport challenge
Congestion
Lack of
capacity
OvercrowdingPoor customer
experience

10. Despite major investment, we still need more transport capacity
In particular along
the north
east/south west
corridor
Crossrail 1
High speed rail (HS1 & HS2)
Thameslink
10

11. A proposed new railway serving
London and the wider South East
70km
of tunnels
30
trains/hour
£31bn
cost
Up to £150bn
to GDP
270,000 additional
passengers in AM peak
7 shafts
Step Free
Access
100kph
line speed
45 stations

12. Crossrail 2 meets the transport challenges
CAPACITY
CONNECTIVITY
JOURNEY
EXPERIENCE
• Access to global employment centres
• Serve some of the most deprived parts of the UK
• Connectivity will be a catalyst for regeneration
• All stations made step-free along the entire route
• Remove need to interchange = quicker journeys
• Eliminate station control at most stations
• Cut crowding on theTube and rail services by 20-
30%
• Add10% to London’s rail capacity
• Add 40% capacity to the South West Main Line allowing
more frequent long-distance services
• Add 15% capacity to West Anglia Main Line services
• Interchange capacity at Euston to support HS2

13. Crossrail 2 will help tackle the South East’s housing crisis
¼of new homes could be built
before Crossrail 2 opens
of Crossrail 2’s housing
benefits would be
outside London30%
Crossrail 2 would go through areas of high deprivation and
high development potential especially ‘Opportunity Areas’ in
the Upper LeaValley

14. Timing
• 2015 – Route Safeguarded
• 2015 - Crossrail 2 Growth Commission report
• 2016 – National Infrastructure Commission
report – “Transport for a World City”
• 2016 – Strategic Outline Business Case
• 2016 – General Election
• June / Sept 2018 - Gerrard Review on Financing,
Funding & Affordability
• Autumn/ Winter 2018? – Revised Safeguarding &
Consultation on route
• 2020? – Submission of Hybrid Bill
• Early 2020s? – Commence construction
• Early 2030s? - Opening

15. Who pays - over 50% to be paid by London

16. Lessons learnt from Elizabeth Line
• Site specific/legal –
a) CPO
b) Land Acquisition/ Site sizes
c) Land Disposal Policy / Collaboration Agreement / Crichel Downs
d) Rights of Light delays and costs
• Construction/Procurement
a) Interface between Infrastructure and OSD
b) Ventilation/Noise/Vibration
c) Programme
• Political / Parliamentary
a) Petitioners
b) Hybrid Bill timing
• Planning & design
a) Timing
b) Greater collaboration
c) Sense of place/arrival
d) Station design/uses
• Failure to capture land value uplift

17. Scheme’s current challenges
• Government Approval
• London’s housing challenge
• London’s transport challenge
• Delivering the housing, the railway & maximising return from OSD
£££ - 50% + of cost to be paid by London
£££ - Affordability – making the scheme more affordable &
flattening the cash - flow curve
£££ - Funding & financing
£££ - Land Value Capture

18. Land Value Capture – the size of the prize

19. Funding & Financing sources – existing and new thinking
• BRS - extra penny on Business Rates Supplement
• Mayoral CIL
• Fiscal devolution
• London wide Council tax precept
• Stamp Duty Hypothecation in 1 km Zones of Influence
• Business Rates Zones in Zones of Influence
• Extracting the maximum from the land and property interests, both acquired and
within the Zones of Influence, using innovative approaches & techniques and
greater use of CPO powers
• Non London Farebox
• Commercial Transport Property Charge
• Residential Transport Property Charge in Zones of Influence

20. Zone of Influence example - Dalston
.
• 1 km zone outlined red
• Need care in ensuring
boundary is fair
• Zone divided into 2 or 3
bands

21. Residential TPC example - Dalston
Analysis shows that there are
23,642 residential properties
across the three zones.

22. Residential TPC example - Dalston
• Analysis shows that there are
23,642 residential properties across
the three zones.
• Applying £100pa (£1.92 per week)
in Zone 3, £200pa in Zone 2 and
£300pa in Zone 1 generates
£3.564m per annum.
• Applying £5 pw in Zone 3, £7.50 in
Zone 2 and £10 in Zone 1 generates
£7.836m per annum.
Zone @ £100 pa @ £200 pa @ £300 pa
Zone 1 £284,100 £568,200 £852,000
Zone 2 £731,400 £1,462,800 £2,194,200
Zone 3 £1,248,700 £2,697,400 £4,046,100

23. Commercial TPC – where to charge?

24. TPCs – the questions / further investigation
• Who should be charged?
• How much should be charged?
• How is it charged?
• How is it collected?
• When should it start?
• Who will support or object?
• Who should be exempt?
• Where should it extend to?
• How much will it raise?

25. Conclusions and messages
• Crossrail 2 is a “no brainer” for London, the South East and UK plc
• Everyone needs to support & lobby for Crossrail 2 to ensure London retains its
international position and continues to drive the economy.
• In order to ensure it’s delivery those who benefit financially have to accept they
will need to contribute towards the cost
• Those authorities on the boundaries of the GLA, and their residents need to
appreciate that improved connectivity does not come at nil cost
• Local Authorities with stations and sites within their boundaries have to accept
higher density developments around those hubs and a more flexible approach
to planning but not at the expense of good design nor appropriate public realm
• Any innovative funding sources should not only be applicable to Crossrail 2 but
applicable to all major infrastructure projects throughout the UK
• Crossrail 2 will be the catalyst for higher density mixed use development at
station hubs and for increasing residential development within the stations
catchment, particularly in the suburbs.