萬物聯網 台灣機會
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Google Confidential and Proprietary
SEE THE FUTURE
2
Mobile Everywhere & Impacts
2007
. iPhone
. Android
. Facebook
. Youtube
…
Millions of Apps
新經濟!
● The new economy is the result of the transition from a
manufacturing-based economy to a service-based
economy.
Google Confidential and Proprietary
2007 (10 years ago)
. iPhone
. Android
. Facebook
. Youtube
. Google Maps
…
Cloud Services
Software is Eating the World
• Winners: digital platforms
– Amazon, bookseller
– Netflix, video service
– Apple’s iTunes, music site
– Pixar, movie production
– Google, marketing platform
– Skype, telecom
– LinkedIn, recruiting firm
– Airbnb, hotel
– Uber, taxi
• All software/internet companies
Marc Andreessen
Top 15 Internet Companies
(美國與中國主導, 歐日困難)
新經濟成功方程式
• User, User, User (人口紅利, 大國崛起)
• Data, Data, Data (智慧服務基礎)
• Disruptive business model: 羊毛出在狗身上豬來買單
• Winner takes all, 贏者全拿
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Next 5 Billion Users
10
Source: Internet Live Stats
Google Confidential and Proprietary
1
2
Paradigm Shift
Behavior is Converging
Electronics Brands Decline
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Mobile First
Internet of Things
• Gartner: By 2020 IoT Will Include 26 Billion Units
Source: Mary Meeker
Wearable …
Google Confidential and Proprietary
Smart Home
The Internet of Cars
Self Driving
Artificial Intelligence:
the Future of Smartphone?
AlphaGo & Google DeepMind
Enable New Wave of AI
Source: http://www.investors.com/
AI is not New
• Spam mails catching (use ML to improve rules)
– Spam rate is down to 0.1 %
– False positive rate to 0.05 %
• Smart services using AI
– Machine translation
– Speech recognition
– Image recognition
• Computer vision on self-driving car
Why does AI matter?
• Deep Learning algorithms show promising results
• Big Data is rapidly growing
• Scalable machine learning tools/platforms available
– Tensorflow, open source software lib for ML
Progress in AI (wiki)
• Super-Human
– Chess, Go
– Driving a car
• Par-Human
– OCR, Classification of images
• Sub-Human
– Handwriting recognition
– Translation
– Speech recognition
– Natural Language Understanding
– Many challenging problems for AI
Huge Investment in AI Startups
What AI is and isn’t ?
• Domains that AI works well
– Modern AI can match or exceed human
in narrow domains
– Knowedge that is trainable by data
– Behavior that is predictable
• Domains that AI didnt’ work well
– AI still lacks the flexibility and
generality of the human mind
– Semantic-level understanding
– …
3
2
New Trends:
Driven by AI
and IoT
Trends:
Smartphone as AI Supercomputer
• Tim Cook: AI is the future of smartphone
• For privacy and latency reasons, some AI will run on a phone
• Instantaneous AI will take augmented reality far beyond
Pokémon Go
Trends: Hardware Accelerates AI
• Google’s Tensor Processing Unit
(TPU) in the cloud
• NVIDIA’s GPUs power deep
learning neural networks
• Intel acquires AI company,
Nervana and Movidius
• MIT: created chipset to perform
AI tasks without being connected
to the internet
• More efforts will move deep
learning from cloud to phones,
smart cars, robots, …
Trends: AI at Home
Trends: AI on Car
Trends:
Drone: Next Camera Follows You
Robotics
3
9
BMWs’ Car Factory
On Medical Service
Taiwan’s Opportunities
44
換個角度看台灣
大國旁小國
集中單一產業
技術輸出? 代工生產?
The Heart of …..
Mindshare?
58
Google
yourself !

簡立峰 萬物聯網台灣機會 20170503