NO1 Verified kala jadu karne wale ka contact number kala jadu karne wale baba...
Future Forests: Invasive Exotics + Climate Change
1. Colin M.J. Novick
Executive Director
Greater Worcester Land Trust
FUTURE FORESTS
Invasive Exotics
+
Climate Change
↓
Climate Adaptation
(Climate Mitigation)
=
Menu of Options
2. Arc of Thinking
Summer 1995: Street Tree Inventory of Worcester: Catalog of the Invasives!
Winter 1999: SIP Program, DCR, Norway Maple Cut at Cascades West
Spring 2005: Covert Cooperators, UMass Extension, Harvard Forest
“Think 70 + Years Out…”
Fall 2007(?ish): US Fish & Wildlife Workshop on Invasives, Amherst
“Know When to Hold ‘Em, Know When to Fold ‘Em…”
August 2008: Worcester Becomes a Federal Quarantine for the ALB
Full Host Removal 2008-2010
Acer spp. (maple and box elder), Aesculus spp. (horse chestnut and buckeye), Salix spp. (willow), Ulmus spp. (elm), Betula
spp. (birch), Albizia spp. (mimosa), Cercidiphyllum spp. (katsura tree), Fraxinus spp. (ash), Koelreuteria spp. (golden rain
tree), Platanus spp. (sycamore and London planetree), Sorbus spp. (mountain ash), and Populus spp. (poplar)
USDA APHIS, Asian Longhorned Beetle Cooperative Eradication Program in Clermont County, OH, Environmental Assessment 2012
September 2015: Climate Change and Southern NE Forests, Amherst, MA
Climate Adaptation
3. Maria Janowiak, USFS
Climate Change and Southern NE Forests, Amherst, MA
Maria Janowiak is the coordinator for the New England Climate Change
Response Framework, serving the states of New York, Vermont, New
Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.
Maria is also a co-coordinator of the Northwoods Climate Change
Response Framework, with an emphasis on northern Wisconsin and
Michigan’s western Upper Peninsula. Maria has been working with land
managers on issues related to climate change and adaptation since
2007.
I borrow many slides in this from her (Thank You Maria!)
But don’t blame her for anything I say.
4. Human Disturbance + Human Disturbance
Global Trade -> Pangea The Sequel! “Invasives Madness!”
Climate Change
5. Climate Change Observed to Date:
1 degree Celsius rise (+/- 1.8 degrees F)
3-5” increase in precipitation
6. Climate Change Anticipated in NE Regional Models:
● 1.5 - 4 degree Celsius rise (2.7 - 8 degrees F)
● Wetter in all seasons but Summer (static or decrease in Summer)
June - August : Streams at “Low Flow”
● Loss of snow cover days (more ground freeze as a result)
● Loss of snowfall by 30-70%
BUT Snow -> Rain = More Rain
& Less Snow Events in Warmer Profile = More Ice Events
● Growing Season Lengthens 1 Month (current rates) - 2 Months (high rates)
● Significant decrease in # of Frost Days
● More heavy/extreme weather events
● Number of Days w/ Precipitation over 10 mm. increases
14. Climate
Mitigation Vs. Adaptation
Human actions to reduce the effects
of climate change by reducing
sources and enhancing sinks of
greenhouse gases.
1) Store (sequester) carbon in live trees
and in ecosystems
2) Avoid emissions of greenhouse
gases to atmosphere
3) Substitute products that produce
lower emissions
IPCC 2007, Brown 1999, Maness 2009
Adaptation is the adjustment of
human or natural systems in
response to climate change.
Adaptation complements mitigation by
sustaining healthy, functioning
ecosystems
Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010
15. Climate Adaptation Actions
Manage for Persistence:
Old Universe
Ecosystems will still be
recognizable as being the same
system (character)
Manage for Change:
New Universe
Ecosystems will fundamentally
become something different
Adapted From: http://www.business2community.com/leadership/10-myths-change-management-0904871
16. ▪ High likelihood that current
conditions will fail, making
change is necessary
▪ Changes are already
occurring, and can be
enhanced
▪ Good opportunity to try
something new
When you might emphasize…
Persistence (Same/Similar)
▪ High ecological value or
unique/rare condition
▪ High social value
associated with current
condition
▪ Inherent ability to buffer
changes
▪ Highly vulnerable, but
place represents best
chance of success
Change (Future-adapted)
17. Adaptation Options
Resistance (Short Term)
Improve defenses of forest to handle climate stressors
Resilience (Medium Term)
Accommodate changes to help forest to more or less
remain the same in the face of climate change
Transition (Long Term)
Encourage forest changes, and help direct forest
towards an outcome
18. Invasive: Norway Maple Thought Experiment
MY SITE
01602 = Zone 6A
↓
Zone 7 - 8
Norway Maple
Plus…
Highly adaptive
Minus…
ALB Host Species
&
Grows in Zones 1 - 7
19. Invasive: Black locust Thought Experiment
MY SITE
01602 = Zone 6A
↓
Zone 7 - 8
Black locust
Plus…
Observed doing very well
Grows in Zones 4 - 8
Minus…
Pest Species Susceptible