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Environment, Development,
Distribution
Two Case Studies
Rohini Kamal, Ph.D.
Gas
62%
Oil
29%
Coal
2%
Hydro
1%
Solar
1%
Import
5%
Bangladesh current power generation mix
• 1 coal power plant in
Barapukuria
• Contributes approximately 2% of
the power mix
• What can we expect as we go
from 2% coal to 35% (or 12%)
under the government plan
2041?
Case study: Mitigation
Socioeconomic, Environmental, and Climate Change
Impacts of the Barapukuria Coal Plant
What can we expect as we go from 2% coal to 12% under
the government plan?
Look to Barapukuria coal plant for answers along key aspects:
1. financing,
2. employment,
3. socioeconomic,
4. environment,
5. climate change.
Distributional impacts & Policies that moderate these impacts
4
Tilai River
Subsided Land
Fly Ash Pond
Chimney
Financier: China ExIm
Borrower: BD Government (GoB)
Builder & 5 yr Operator: Harbin Electronics
Owner & Operator: PDB (GoB)
Plant Contracted GoB Workers
Plant Outsourced Workers
Plant Chinese Workers
Mine Chinese Workers
Mine Contracted GoB Workers
Mine Outsourced Workers
$
Power Plant
Coal Mine
Local Community
Land Owners
Landless Peasant
Indigenous Groups
CSOs
Journalists
Research Institutes
Ministry of Power, PDB
Ministry of Environment
Background: Key Players
525 MW
$656 mn
Key Findings
Financing
Financing comes in ‘package’ -> machinery, builders,
technical know-how
Traditional financiers moving away from fossil-fuel
power generation
Employment Lack of jobs for local communities
Loss of indirect employment from imported factor
inputs
Socioeconomic
Impacts
Title-holding landowners fairly compensated
Uncompensated impacted communities include:
sharecroppers, indigenous communities
Environmental
Impacts
Water depletion impacted 15 villages; Water & Air
Pollution
GHG emissions (525 MW, subcritical): ~4 million mt
CO2/year
Safeguard Policies
Bangladesh Public Consultation, Grievance Mechanism not required/ not
implemented
Environmental Management Plan with timelines not required
China
Overseas
Regulations
Recommends Chinese firms conduct Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA)
Refers to host country laws and international standards (ADB, ExIm,
Equ. Princ.)
China ExIm Guideline includes resettlement (only one of two policy banks to do
so)
Monitors environmental impact throughout project cycle (not
accessible)
Equatorial
Principles
EIA includes impacts on indigenous peoples (like ADB)
Independent Monitoring required for high risk projects (like ADB)
ADB Includes indirect socioeconomic impacts
Applies Polluter Pays Principles
Nature of Safeguards Characteristics IDBs
Conditional Harmonization
IDB has predetermined set of mandatory thematic, operational, and
procedural standards that a borrower must comply with regardless of
their national country system and level of development. The
development bank performs compliancet work itself or provides
technical assistance for the borrower to comply
WB, EIB, IADB, USEXIM
Capability Enhancing Recognition
IDB recognizes borrowing country standards but conducts due
diligence to ensure that the bank project is in compliance with local
laws and norms. If country system capabilities are deemed to be
inadequate the IDB development bank provides technical assistance
technical assistance to the borrower country to improve the standards
for the project.
CAF, KfW, CaDB, AfD
Deferential Recognition
IDB recommends that projects comply with national country systems,
but seldom assess the adequacy of such systems, project compliance
with such systems, and/or provide technical assistance to project
managers or borrower countries for compliance.
BNDES, CDB, CHEXIM
IDB Safeguards in Latin America
China Banks at Weaker End of Safeguard
Spectrum relative to BWIs
Source: GEGI
Long term issues
Financing Project document does not include revenue over
plant’s lifetime (30 y)
By 2030 renewables cost competitive with subcritical
coal
Water
depletion
2% coal impacted 15 villages, 2041 Policy could impact
375 villages
Wastewater discharge pollutes water bodies; fly-ash
deposit
Air
Pollution
Health impacts from copollutants
Average cost $49/ton of CO2 (from 37 studies around
the world)
GHG
emission
2041 Policy not compatible with Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions
Not compatible with a longer timeline (2050)
Conclusion
• Research highlights some key aspects of different options that exist
for developing countries to meet energy needs, and a framework for
how to weigh these different aspects
• Recommend policy based on environmental and economic
considerations.
• Chance to inform policy that addresses needs of vulnerable
populations especially with the emergence of Southern-led finance
Case Study: Adaptation
• Project name: “Strengthening Resilience of Climate-Induced Migrants
in Vulnerable Urban Communities in Khulna”
• BRAC project
• Addresses environment, climate change, and socioeconomic
vulnerabilities
• Focus on livelihoods + climate impacts
• Waterlogging, access to potable water
Overview 11
» Implementing Organization: BRAC Humanitarian Programme (BHP) and BRAC Ultra-
Poor Graduation Programme (UPG)
» Location: Urban Settlements in Khulna and Rajshahi
» Target Population: Ultra-poor climate migrant women in urban settlements
» Duration: 18 months
Study Area 12
» Khulna: 3rd largest city, Population: 770,498,
Informal settlements: 520
» Vulnerabilities: inadequate rainfall, urban
flooding, water logging, storm surge,
infrastructural challenges
» 3 most vulnerable slums: 5 no. ghat, 7 no. ghat,
and Notunbazar
Objectives 13
» Assess the current situation in terms of economic, social and environmental
problems of the communities
» Identify the climate-induced vulnerabilities to track potential change at the end
of the programme
Project Outcomes
14
Capacity to minimize, withstand
and bounce back from negative
impacts of climate change Strengthened the socio economic
resilience
2
3
1
Improved social
empowerment
Methodology and Approach
15
Theoretical Framework 16
Programme Interventions 17
Outcome 1 & 2 Outcome 3 Outcome 2 Outcome 1 & 3
Evaluative Instruments Through Questions 18
19
Qualitative Evaluation
FGDs: 3 slum committees
• Challenges faced
• Interaction between challenges
• Actions taken
• Effective solutions proposed by locals
KIIs: 4 government and non-gov organizations
• Existing projects for managing the challenges
• Identify operational & functional challenges of interventions
• Suggest potential scope of HH level integrated interventions
Quantitative Evaluation 20
Assessed the vulnerability of the participant and control group to track
potential change at the end of the programme
1 Socioeconomic
» Income generating
activities
» Income generating assets
» Credit, Grants and Savings
» Food Security
» Decision making
» Social Inclusion
2 Household/Infrastructural
» Housing Structure
» Surrounding Infrastructure
» WASH
3 Climate Change
» Climate-induced migration
and impacts
» Awareness
» Adaptation measures
21
Methodology
Endline
Survey
Vulnerability
Assessment
(March 2023)
Baseline
Survey
Vulnerability
Assessment
(Sept 2021)
315 T
330 C
315 T
330 C
Non-Participants
Program
Difference-in-differences (DID) approach comparing pre-post differences
in outcomes between the participants and non-participants used to
support the evaluation of the project impact
Study Results
22
Household level financial condition
Indicators Participants (mean)
Per capita monthly HH income (BDT) 1,754.60
Have cash savings (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 6.2
Respondent involved in IGA (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 59.5
Average value of HH productive asset (BDT) 4,868.90
Households receiving government allowance/assistance (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 10.6
Study Results
23
49.3
73.7
31.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
HH been able to get regular meals at
least two times a day
HH needed to borrow rice HH had only eaten rice 1-3 times a
month
Percentage
(%)
Indicators
Household level food security
Study Results
24
Household level infrastructure condition
Indicators Mean
House is built resistant to rain and storm (Yes=1, No=0) (%)
32.8
Water enters the house if waterlogging happens in the area (Yes=1, No=0) (%)
64.2
Cooks inside the house (Yes=1, No=0) (%)
63.9
Study Results
25
90.9
17.2
10.9
9.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lakri/Wood
Sawdust
Cow dung/ Pipe coal
Gas cylinder
Percentage (%)
Fuel
Type
Houehold level fuel use
Study Results
26
Wash and Sanitation:
» Almost 28 percent of the participants had to cover more than 15 minutes of walking distance
from their houses to the sources of drinking water
» Household’s monthly expenditure associated with water collection is on an average BDT 72
» Around 53 percent of the surveyed households expressed the need for safe drinking water
» About 50 percent of the surveyed households used joint/community latrine in the settlements
Study Results
27
Figure: Household level waste management
Study Results
28
Climate induced migration
» Around 9% of the participants migrated for work, but 72 % moved after losing land and house in
natural disasters
» The participants mostly migrated from Bagerhat, Barisal, Pirojpur and Khulna districts
Climate Change Awareness
» 30% of the participants reported that they had heard about the term “Climate Change”
Adaptation strategies against climate shocks
» 12% of the participants made a loft in the house while 5% raised the base of the furniture to protect
household items from water logging
» 55% changed their water sources due to climate change issues
Study Results
29
Figure: Problems faced due to climate change
Conclusion
30
» Participant group comprises of climate-induced migrants who are socioeconomically vulnerable,
have very low levels of per capita household income & productive assets
» Inadequate housing and sanitation infrastructure, making them vulnerable to flooding and storm
surges
» Scope to improve the anticipatory capacity of the community
» Cooking facilities used are carbon intensive and have negative health impacts
» Existing water supply, drainage access does not sufficiently counter impacts of climate change
such as increasing salinity in water and waterlogging
» Waste management facility is inadequate and unaffordable to the most vulnerable households
» Potential scope for household level integrated interventions
Bangladesh Major Agreements
Bangladesh Climate and Environmental Agreements
Bangladesh Major Climate and Environmental Laws
and Action Plans
Major Environment and Climate Policies of Bangladesh
Sustainable Development Goals
Air pollution
Bangladesh sources of pollution
Trends in Air pollution in Bangladesh
Water Pollution
Sources of water pollution
Global Water Pollution Composition
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Bangladesh
GHG Trends in Bangladesh
CO2 emission by fuel type
CO2 emission and GDP

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RK DEV 604 Final Lecture.pptx

  • 2. Gas 62% Oil 29% Coal 2% Hydro 1% Solar 1% Import 5% Bangladesh current power generation mix • 1 coal power plant in Barapukuria • Contributes approximately 2% of the power mix • What can we expect as we go from 2% coal to 35% (or 12%) under the government plan 2041?
  • 3. Case study: Mitigation Socioeconomic, Environmental, and Climate Change Impacts of the Barapukuria Coal Plant What can we expect as we go from 2% coal to 12% under the government plan? Look to Barapukuria coal plant for answers along key aspects: 1. financing, 2. employment, 3. socioeconomic, 4. environment, 5. climate change. Distributional impacts & Policies that moderate these impacts
  • 4. 4 Tilai River Subsided Land Fly Ash Pond Chimney Financier: China ExIm Borrower: BD Government (GoB) Builder & 5 yr Operator: Harbin Electronics Owner & Operator: PDB (GoB) Plant Contracted GoB Workers Plant Outsourced Workers Plant Chinese Workers Mine Chinese Workers Mine Contracted GoB Workers Mine Outsourced Workers $ Power Plant Coal Mine Local Community Land Owners Landless Peasant Indigenous Groups CSOs Journalists Research Institutes Ministry of Power, PDB Ministry of Environment Background: Key Players 525 MW $656 mn
  • 5. Key Findings Financing Financing comes in ‘package’ -> machinery, builders, technical know-how Traditional financiers moving away from fossil-fuel power generation Employment Lack of jobs for local communities Loss of indirect employment from imported factor inputs Socioeconomic Impacts Title-holding landowners fairly compensated Uncompensated impacted communities include: sharecroppers, indigenous communities Environmental Impacts Water depletion impacted 15 villages; Water & Air Pollution GHG emissions (525 MW, subcritical): ~4 million mt CO2/year
  • 6. Safeguard Policies Bangladesh Public Consultation, Grievance Mechanism not required/ not implemented Environmental Management Plan with timelines not required China Overseas Regulations Recommends Chinese firms conduct Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Refers to host country laws and international standards (ADB, ExIm, Equ. Princ.) China ExIm Guideline includes resettlement (only one of two policy banks to do so) Monitors environmental impact throughout project cycle (not accessible) Equatorial Principles EIA includes impacts on indigenous peoples (like ADB) Independent Monitoring required for high risk projects (like ADB) ADB Includes indirect socioeconomic impacts Applies Polluter Pays Principles
  • 7. Nature of Safeguards Characteristics IDBs Conditional Harmonization IDB has predetermined set of mandatory thematic, operational, and procedural standards that a borrower must comply with regardless of their national country system and level of development. The development bank performs compliancet work itself or provides technical assistance for the borrower to comply WB, EIB, IADB, USEXIM Capability Enhancing Recognition IDB recognizes borrowing country standards but conducts due diligence to ensure that the bank project is in compliance with local laws and norms. If country system capabilities are deemed to be inadequate the IDB development bank provides technical assistance technical assistance to the borrower country to improve the standards for the project. CAF, KfW, CaDB, AfD Deferential Recognition IDB recommends that projects comply with national country systems, but seldom assess the adequacy of such systems, project compliance with such systems, and/or provide technical assistance to project managers or borrower countries for compliance. BNDES, CDB, CHEXIM IDB Safeguards in Latin America China Banks at Weaker End of Safeguard Spectrum relative to BWIs Source: GEGI
  • 8. Long term issues Financing Project document does not include revenue over plant’s lifetime (30 y) By 2030 renewables cost competitive with subcritical coal Water depletion 2% coal impacted 15 villages, 2041 Policy could impact 375 villages Wastewater discharge pollutes water bodies; fly-ash deposit Air Pollution Health impacts from copollutants Average cost $49/ton of CO2 (from 37 studies around the world) GHG emission 2041 Policy not compatible with Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Not compatible with a longer timeline (2050)
  • 9. Conclusion • Research highlights some key aspects of different options that exist for developing countries to meet energy needs, and a framework for how to weigh these different aspects • Recommend policy based on environmental and economic considerations. • Chance to inform policy that addresses needs of vulnerable populations especially with the emergence of Southern-led finance
  • 10. Case Study: Adaptation • Project name: “Strengthening Resilience of Climate-Induced Migrants in Vulnerable Urban Communities in Khulna” • BRAC project • Addresses environment, climate change, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities • Focus on livelihoods + climate impacts • Waterlogging, access to potable water
  • 11. Overview 11 » Implementing Organization: BRAC Humanitarian Programme (BHP) and BRAC Ultra- Poor Graduation Programme (UPG) » Location: Urban Settlements in Khulna and Rajshahi » Target Population: Ultra-poor climate migrant women in urban settlements » Duration: 18 months
  • 12. Study Area 12 » Khulna: 3rd largest city, Population: 770,498, Informal settlements: 520 » Vulnerabilities: inadequate rainfall, urban flooding, water logging, storm surge, infrastructural challenges » 3 most vulnerable slums: 5 no. ghat, 7 no. ghat, and Notunbazar
  • 13. Objectives 13 » Assess the current situation in terms of economic, social and environmental problems of the communities » Identify the climate-induced vulnerabilities to track potential change at the end of the programme
  • 14. Project Outcomes 14 Capacity to minimize, withstand and bounce back from negative impacts of climate change Strengthened the socio economic resilience 2 3 1 Improved social empowerment
  • 17. Programme Interventions 17 Outcome 1 & 2 Outcome 3 Outcome 2 Outcome 1 & 3
  • 19. 19 Qualitative Evaluation FGDs: 3 slum committees • Challenges faced • Interaction between challenges • Actions taken • Effective solutions proposed by locals KIIs: 4 government and non-gov organizations • Existing projects for managing the challenges • Identify operational & functional challenges of interventions • Suggest potential scope of HH level integrated interventions
  • 20. Quantitative Evaluation 20 Assessed the vulnerability of the participant and control group to track potential change at the end of the programme 1 Socioeconomic » Income generating activities » Income generating assets » Credit, Grants and Savings » Food Security » Decision making » Social Inclusion 2 Household/Infrastructural » Housing Structure » Surrounding Infrastructure » WASH 3 Climate Change » Climate-induced migration and impacts » Awareness » Adaptation measures
  • 21. 21 Methodology Endline Survey Vulnerability Assessment (March 2023) Baseline Survey Vulnerability Assessment (Sept 2021) 315 T 330 C 315 T 330 C Non-Participants Program Difference-in-differences (DID) approach comparing pre-post differences in outcomes between the participants and non-participants used to support the evaluation of the project impact
  • 22. Study Results 22 Household level financial condition Indicators Participants (mean) Per capita monthly HH income (BDT) 1,754.60 Have cash savings (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 6.2 Respondent involved in IGA (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 59.5 Average value of HH productive asset (BDT) 4,868.90 Households receiving government allowance/assistance (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 10.6
  • 23. Study Results 23 49.3 73.7 31.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 HH been able to get regular meals at least two times a day HH needed to borrow rice HH had only eaten rice 1-3 times a month Percentage (%) Indicators Household level food security
  • 24. Study Results 24 Household level infrastructure condition Indicators Mean House is built resistant to rain and storm (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 32.8 Water enters the house if waterlogging happens in the area (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 64.2 Cooks inside the house (Yes=1, No=0) (%) 63.9
  • 25. Study Results 25 90.9 17.2 10.9 9.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Lakri/Wood Sawdust Cow dung/ Pipe coal Gas cylinder Percentage (%) Fuel Type Houehold level fuel use
  • 26. Study Results 26 Wash and Sanitation: » Almost 28 percent of the participants had to cover more than 15 minutes of walking distance from their houses to the sources of drinking water » Household’s monthly expenditure associated with water collection is on an average BDT 72 » Around 53 percent of the surveyed households expressed the need for safe drinking water » About 50 percent of the surveyed households used joint/community latrine in the settlements
  • 27. Study Results 27 Figure: Household level waste management
  • 28. Study Results 28 Climate induced migration » Around 9% of the participants migrated for work, but 72 % moved after losing land and house in natural disasters » The participants mostly migrated from Bagerhat, Barisal, Pirojpur and Khulna districts Climate Change Awareness » 30% of the participants reported that they had heard about the term “Climate Change” Adaptation strategies against climate shocks » 12% of the participants made a loft in the house while 5% raised the base of the furniture to protect household items from water logging » 55% changed their water sources due to climate change issues
  • 29. Study Results 29 Figure: Problems faced due to climate change
  • 30. Conclusion 30 » Participant group comprises of climate-induced migrants who are socioeconomically vulnerable, have very low levels of per capita household income & productive assets » Inadequate housing and sanitation infrastructure, making them vulnerable to flooding and storm surges » Scope to improve the anticipatory capacity of the community » Cooking facilities used are carbon intensive and have negative health impacts » Existing water supply, drainage access does not sufficiently counter impacts of climate change such as increasing salinity in water and waterlogging » Waste management facility is inadequate and unaffordable to the most vulnerable households » Potential scope for household level integrated interventions
  • 31. Bangladesh Major Agreements Bangladesh Climate and Environmental Agreements
  • 32. Bangladesh Major Climate and Environmental Laws and Action Plans Major Environment and Climate Policies of Bangladesh
  • 36. Trends in Air pollution in Bangladesh
  • 37. Water Pollution Sources of water pollution
  • 38. Global Water Pollution Composition
  • 39. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Bangladesh
  • 40. GHG Trends in Bangladesh
  • 41. CO2 emission by fuel type