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BCT 633
CONSTRUCTION ECONOMICS AND
ISLAMIC FINANCE
PROFESSOR Ts DR HJH ROSHANA TAKIM
SCOPE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
SOURCES OF FINANCE
Conventional and Islamic Financing Projects & Activities
CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISE/FIRM
Financial Management
(raise funding)
Management Accounting
(control firm’s activities)
Financial management: aims to
raise funds in most suitable and
economical manner, to guide
investment and to maintain
liquidity
Life Cycle Costing
Management accounting:
aims to assist manager in
planning, decision-making
and controlling firm’s activities
The Importance of Financial Management in construction projects
Up to date financial records
Monitor your financial position
-Plan your expenditure to be match with
the income; plan the sources of finance
Credit Control
-checking the money status
Knowing day-to day costs
-operational costs
Have a business plan
- cash flow (money in and out)
-Where your money will need to be targeted
-How much emergency fund the company
will be required
Cost Control Techniques
Five (5) important methods used for Cost Control Techniques for Construction Projects.
• WBS: is an organised structure that illustrates the scope of work into manageable concepts. Can illustrate
graphically in boxes, text indents, coding, insert some details such as the floor levels
• Method Statement: is a description of how work will be carried out safely by providing information on how
the work to be done. These include: coding, methodology, quantity of work, machinery, manpower and
duration
• Bar Chart: To plan and control documents for communicating schedule information using Project Management
Software
• CPM: Critical path methods
• Cash Flow Diagram:Used to visualize the project progress over time which include of projected expenditure,
actual expenditure and project income
Project-Construction and completion of greenhouse for UiTM Jengka
Green House
Prelims-1110 Services-1400
Superstructure-
1300
External work 1500
Substructure-
1200
Example: WBS (Work breakdown structure)
Method Statement-Example
Bil Activity Methods Approach Quantity Machinery Manpower Duration
1100 Preliminaries Mobilisation, access
road, excavation
15m JCB 7B 3 workers
1-Kepala
3 days
700 days
Bar -Chart
Critical Path Method
Cash Flow-Inflows and outflows
Cash Flow Diagram
• The cash flow statement is a document which models the flow of money in
(positive cash Flow) and money out (negative cash flow)
• A graph of cost expenditure V time is needed to derived the cash out and cash in
for the project. The S curve is drawn to represent the plan cost incurred in doing
the project
• A stepped line is plotted against the S curve represent the forecast of the money
that the contractor will be received. In some cases the client will retain a
percentage of the payment.
• The stepped line will cross the S curve and this will indicate the anticipated margin
S-curve
S -curve
• An S-curve is the piecewise continuous graph showing the accumulated
expenditure of completed construction work of a project against its duration
from start-up to completion.
• The S-curve is considered simultaneously with a step function cumulative curve
representing the interim payments received by the contractor from the owner
according to project progress
• By combining the cost (contractor's expenses) and value (owner's payments)
profiles, having made the necessary adjustments for retention and payment
delays, one can derive the net cash-flow project profile.
• By that, the maximum working capital required by the contractor for the project
and the cost of its lock-up working capital; i.e. the amount of interest charged
to the contractor due to the execution of the project, if the lock-up working
capital is financed by a lending institution
Income
Actual
Expenditure
Projected
Expenditure
Project
Cost
(RM)
Construction Time
Cash Flow S-Curve
Projected Expenditure
- Projected expenditure is an
anticipated expenses prior to
sales product in due time.
Actual Expenditure
- Results when money is actually
spent on the various supplies,
services and other expense
categories used by the business.
Income
- The revenues allocated
to projects for a given time
period (i.e., payment by client).
Break-even
Point
Profit
Financial issues in most construction projects
• Contractors incur costs as the construction progresses. As such, contractors have to meet the
ongoing weekly payroll and monthly material payment obligations while waiting for owners'
discrete payments. The gap (capital lock up)between cumulative expenses and actual payments
received needs to be financed.
• `Financial management', plays the most important role in cash-flow forecasting and that special
caution must be taken in anticipating the occurrence of the following project factors:
change of progress;
payment duration;
project delay;
improper planning;
inability to manage change orders;
number of claims.
These factors contributed very high percentages on cash-flow risk compared with the other
factors
Improving Project cash Flow
Several financial manipulations that may improve contractors' project cash-flow/
working capital.
• `Front-end rate loading' is the practice of increasing the rates for items of the
construction work that take place early in the project. This keeps the overall
cost of the work the same but has the effect of increasing the level of payments
early in the project and reducing borrowing costs.
• Advance payment at project initiation as a percentage of the total contract sum.
This payment is then subtracted from the interim payments to the contractor.
• A possible reduction in the retainage percentage, if accepted by the owner, will
have a positive effect on contractor's cash-flow/working capital needs.
Normal Vs Non-normal cash Flow
• Normal cash flow project:
- Cost negative follow by a series of positive cash inflow
- One change of sign
Non-normal cash flow project
• Two or more changes of sign
• Example mining project
Capital Expenditure: Importance
• Importance: stems from 3 inter-related reasons:
Long term
Effects
• Current capital expenditure
provide framework for future
activities
Irreversibility
• Reversal of decision on capital
expenditure may occur a substantial
loss
• No wrong judgment on capital
expenditure
Substantial
capital outlay
• Usually involve substantial capital
outlays.
Capital Budgeting
• Therefore, capital budgeting is a systematic approach to
determining whether a company’s planned major capital
investments are worth pursuing.
• Capital budgeting is concerned with the justification of capital
expenditures. It can provide a rationale to select between
alternative projects:
• The QUESTION IS………….Which proposed project will most
increase the company’s value over time?
Phases of Capital budgeting
Planning
SELECTION
Implementation
Review
Analysis
Is the project
worthwhile to
invest ?
Figure 1: Capital Budgeting Process
Selection rules (Appraisal criteria)
Criterion Accept Reject Indifferent
1 NPV (Net Present value) NPV>0 NPV <0 NPV=0
2 IRR (internal rate of return) IRR> cost of capital IRR< cost of capital IRR=cost of
capital
3 Payback period (PBP) PBP< target period PBP>target period PBP= target
period
4 Profitability Index
(PI)/Benefit cost ratio
PI>1 PI<1 PI=1
5 MIRR (Modified Internal
Rate of Return)
MIRR> cost of capital MIRR< cost of
capital
MIRR= Cost of
capital
6 Accounting Rate of Return
(ARR) (ROI)
ARR>target rate ARR< target rate ARR= target rate
Time value of money
• Money has time value. A dollar received today has a greater value
than a dollar received at some future time .
• Time value of money is the idea that money available at present time
is worth more than the same amount in the future, due to its potential
earning capacity.
• When money is borrowed, the interest paid is charge to the
borrower. Interest compensates the depositor/lender for the time
value of money.
Time value of money (cont..)
• Therefore when deciding among alternative projects to invest, we
must take into account the operation of interest and the time value of
money.
• For example investors are willing to forgo spending their money now
if they expect a favorable return on their investment in the future
Interest –time relationship
6 Factors Find Given
1 Future value of a single sum
(Compound amount)
S P
2 Present value of a single sum
(Present worth)
P S
3 Future value of annuity
( uniform series of compound amount)
S R
4 Present value of annuity
(Present worth of uniform series)
P R
5 Sinking fund deposit R S
6 Capital recovery R P
Cash Flow diagram
• Cash flow diagrams are visual representations of cash inflows and outflows along
a time line.
• They are used to detect which of the five patterns of cash flow is represented by
a particular problem.
• The cash flow patterns are significant because they allow us to develop interest
formulas. The five patterns of a cash flow are:
Cash Flow diagram
• Eg. A company plans to invest RM 500,000 (p) (downward-pointing arrow) to manufacture a new product. The sale of this
product is expected to provide a net income of RM 70,000 (upward pointing arrow) a year for 5 years , beginning at the
end of the first year
S=70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000
P=500,000
1 2 3 4 5
N=year
i=?
• Single payment: Present worth; future worth
• Equal payment series: Future worth; present worth factor; sinking fund;
capital recovery
• Linear gradient: gradient present worth; gradient equal payment
• Geometric pattern series: present worth
• Uneven series: A series of cash flows exhibiting no overall pattern.
QUIZ 1
• Eg: If RM 500,000 is deposited in a bank today for 8 years at a compound
interest rate of 10% per year. What is the amount in the account at the end
of 8 years?
QUIZ 2
• A man has deposited RM 50,000 in a retirement income plan with a
local bank. The bank pays 10% per year, compounded annually. What
is the maximum amount the man can withdraw at the end of each
year for 10 years
QUIZ 3
 Eg: A contractor’s bank statement shows a credit of RM
500,000 as a result of a small investment made 6 years
ago. Interest over this period has been 15%. What was
the original investment?
QUIZ 4
• Eg: Given an interest rate 15% per year, what sum would be accumulated
after 10 years if RM 5,000 were invested at the end of each years for
10years
QUIZ 5
Eg: What sum of money should be deposited in a bank in order to
provide 12 equal annual withdrawals of RM 3,000, the first of which
will be made one year after the deposit. The fund pays 15%
QUIZ 6
Eg: Your sister is currently 3 years old and will go to college at
the age of 18. Assuming that when she starts college, she will
need at least RM 80,000 in a bank. How much do you need to
save each year in order to have enough funds if the current rate
of interest is 10%.
QUIZ 7
• Mary wishes to determine the equal annual end-of-year deposits
required to accumulate RM 30,000 at the end of 5 years when her
son enters collage .
• The interest rate is 10%. Calculate the annual deposit
QUIZ 8
Eg: Your father deposits RM 680,000 on retirement into a bank
which pays 10% annually interest. How much he can withdraw
annually for a period of 15 years
QUIZ 9
• A woman deposits RM 2000 in a saving account that pays interest
10% per year compounded annually. If all the money is allowed to
accumulate, how much will she have at the end of 10 years?
Quiz 10
• How much must a family invest now to provide a lump sum of
RM 2,500, 4,500 4,500, 4,500 and 5,500 for a school fees at the
end of 2yrs, 4yrs 6yrs, 8yrs and 10yrs if the interest is 5%?
Quiz 11
• An investor buys a site near KLCC for RM 30,000,000. Annual
outgoings on the site for maintenance is RM 30,000. It is estimated
that the site will not be sold for 5 yrs.
• For what minimum price must the site be sold at break even cost
(5yrs) if the purchase price and the annual outgoings were borrowed
at 10% per year?
Quiz 12
• You borrow RM 50,000 to finance educational expenses for your
senior year of collage. The loan will be paid over 5 yrs. The loan
carries interest rate 5% per year and is to be repaid in equal annual
instalments over the next 5 yrs.
• Compute the annual instalment.
Quiz 13
• Ron Jafee has been given an opportunity to receive RM 20,000, 6
years from now. If he can earns 10% on his investment, what is the
most he should pay for his opportunity?
QUIZ 14
• You borrow RM 21,061.82 to finance educational expenses and will be paid over 7 years time with
an interest rate 5%. Compute the annual installment.
• Suppose you wanted to defer the first installment until end of year 2, what should be the annual
installment for 5 equal installment
Quiz 15
• If Laurel made a RM 30,000 investment in a friend’s business and
received RM 50,000 five years later, determine the rate of return ,i
Net Present Value (NPV )
• The basis of NPV method is that all future payments/receipts are
converted to present value.
• NPV can be used as to determine whether a project is profitable enough to
be considered a worthwhile investment.
• Accept the project if positive NPV, reject if negative NPV
• Project with the highest NPV is the most favorable to invest
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• The internal rate of return (IRR) of a project is the discount rate
(interest) which makes NPV=0
• The purpose is to differentiate between 2 or more projects in order to
choose the least expensive.
• The IRR sometimes is called as discounted cash flow yield (DCF)
Yield
• IRR is the maximum interest rate that could be paid on borrowed
capital
Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR)
• MARR is a reasonable rate of return established for the
evaluation and selection of alternatives.
• A project is not economically viable unless it is expected to
return at least the MARR
• MARR sometimes called as hurdle rate, cutoff rate, benchmark
rate and minimum acceptable rate of return
Size of MARR relative to other rate of return values
Incremental analysis
• incremental analysis is used to analyze the difference between
the two projects;
• Compute the cash flow for the difference between the projects
by subtracting the cash flow for the lower investment from that
of the higher investment
Interest paid & Interest Earned
• Two perspectives of interests are: interest paid and interest earned.
• Interest is paid when a person/organization borrowed money/loan and
repays a larger amount over time
• Interest is earned when a person/organization saved/invested/or lent
money and obtains a return of a larger amount over time
Example: NPV & IRR
Accept the project if NPV is positive; Reject the project if NPV is negative;
Project with the highest NPV is the most favorable to invest
MARR=10%
Case 1: To find IRR; interpolating between 10% and 20%; IRRA=10%+{10X76700/76700+22100}
IRRA=17.763%; therefore < than 17.63% accept the proposal and > than 17,763% reject the proposal.
Case 2: IRR=33.01%; Less than < 33.01% accept the proposal; > 33.01% reject the proposal
Case 1
Year Cash Flow PW Factor (10%) PW PW Factor (20%) PW
0
(1,105,000)
1 (1,105,000) 1 (1,105,000)
1
1,300,000
0.909 1,181,700 0.833 1,082,900
NPV 195,000 NPV= 76,700 NPV= (22,100)
Year C/F PW factor (10%) PW factor PW factor (35%) PW
0 (900,000.00) 1 (900,000.00) 1 (900,000.00)
1 1,300,000.00 0.909 1,181,700.00 0.741 875,639.70
NPV 400,000.00 281,700.00 (24,360.30)
Case 2
Example 1: NPV & IRR (Equal service lives)
IRR C1= Between 12% and 22% IRRC2= Between 12% and 22%
IRRC1= 18.42% IRR C2 =20.20%
Intersection point =15%; > 15% select project c2; less than 15% select project C1 since Marr is 12%
less than 15% select project C1
9 C1 C2 C1 C2 22.0% C1 C2
years C/F C/F PW factor
0 -9,000 -9,000
1 480 5800
2 3700 3230
3 6550 2000
4 3780 1561
5510 3611 NPV 1993.31 1508.34
If MARR=10%; which project shall you select, C1 or C2
Intersection point and Incremental analysis
• When NPV and IRR conflicts with each other, solve the problem:
a) determining the intersection (fisher’s) (using graph paper). An
intersection between the slopes of the cash flow profiles is called Fisher’s
intersection- after the economist Irving Fisher.
b) incremental analysis is used to analyze the difference between the
two projects; Compute the cash flow for the difference between the
projects by subtracting the cash flow for the lower investment from that
of the higher investment;
c) Solve the problem by MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return)
NPV and IRR: Equal service lives
C1 C2
years C/F C/F
0 -9,000 -9,000
1 480 5800
2 3700 3230
3 6550 2000
4 3780 1561
5510 3611
IRR C1-C2= Between 10% and 16%
IRR C1-C2 =14.85%;
Intersection point =15%; > 15% select project C2; less than 15% select project C1
Since MARR= 12% less than 15% select project C1
Example 2: NPV, IRR and intersection point
Two mutually exclusive projects to be chosen, project B1 or B2 ? Which
project would you select at MARR (minimum attractive rate of return) =10%
Both projects have positive NPV, therefore they are both attractive and can be accepted.
Year B1 B2
PW factor
(10%)
PW B1 PW B2
PW factor
(26%) B1 B2
0 -3,000 -12,000
1 1350 4200
2 1800 6225
3 1500 6330
NPV @ 0
interest
1650 4755
Intersection
point
15.07%
Incremental analysis
Year B1 B2
0 -3,000 -12,000
1 1350 4200
2 1800 6225
3 1500 6330
NPV@0
interest
1650 4755
IRR 25.55% 18.33%
The intersection is at point 15.07%
If >15.07%, select project B1 while if <15.07%, then select project B2
Comments-NPV
• NPV is absolute measure. It is dependent on the size of the
contribution of the project to the wealth of the company.
Projects that maximizes the total NPV will maximize the total
value of a company.
• The main difficulty is the choice of discount rate.
• The discount rate on the curve where the NPV changes from
positive to negative represents IRR.
• IRR/DCF yield is the max interest rate that could be paid on
borrowed capital.
Comments on IRR
• IRR is the value of the discount rate at which NPV=0
• IRR is a relative measure, it does not depend upon the size
of the project or the investment.
QUIZ 16: Which project shall you select, A, B or C; If MARR=15%;
YEAR A B C
0 -1000 -5000 -2000
1 500 7,500 1,500
2 2500 600 2,000
A B C A B C A
YEAR A B C
0 -1000 -5000 -2000
1 500 7,500 1,500
2 2500 600 2,000
NPV
@0 2000 3100 1500
B-A
A B C
 IRRA=Interpolating between 60% & 90%;
IRRA= 86.00%
Int Npv Int Npv Int Npv
 IRRB=Interpolating between 15% & 60%
IRRB=58.29%
 IRRC= Interpolating between 15% & 60%
IRRC= 48. 47%
Intersection point is 45%; B-A=45%>15%; select B; drop A
SOLUTION
QUIZ 17
• Alternative A, B, C have lives of 5 years. Which is the best alternatives if the
MARR is 10%. Doing nothing is allowed, but the alternatives are mutually
exclusive.
alternatives First cost (RM) Annual Return (RM)
A 10,000 2913
B 15,000 4266
C 18,000 5037
Answer QUIZ 17
Year A B C
Pw factor
(10%) A B C
PW factor
(15%) A B C
0 -10,000 -15,000 -18,000 1 -10000 -15000 -18000 1 -10000 -15000 -18000
1 2,913 4266 5037 0.909 2647.917 3877.794 4578.633 0.87 2534.31 3711.42 4382.19
2 2913 4266 5037 0.826 2406.138 3523.716 4160.562 0.756 2202.228 3225.096 3807.972
3 2913 4266 5037 0.751 2187.663 3203.766 3782.787 0.658 1916.754 2807.028 3314.346
4 2913 4266 5037 0.683 1989.579 2913.678 3440.271 0.572 1666.236 2440.152 2881.164
5 2913 4266 5037 0.621 1808.973 2649.186 3127.977 0.497 1447.761 2120.202 2503.389
Total NPV
@0
interest 4,565 6,330 7,185 1040.27 1168.14 1090.23 -232.711 -696.102 -1110.94
A B C
Fisher's
intersection
Total NPV @
0 interest 4565 6330 7185
IRR 14.08% 13.13% 12.47%
C-B 9.00% <10% , the increment not justified; B is preferred than C
C-A 10.75% > 10% ; C is preferred
B-A 11.00% > 10%, B is preferred
Therefore, B is the preferred alternatives, since it has the highest NPV (1168.14) at 10%.
END OF LECTURE 4

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Lecture 4 Economic Assessment EDIT.pptx

  • 1. BCT 633 CONSTRUCTION ECONOMICS AND ISLAMIC FINANCE PROFESSOR Ts DR HJH ROSHANA TAKIM
  • 2. SCOPE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SOURCES OF FINANCE Conventional and Islamic Financing Projects & Activities CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISE/FIRM Financial Management (raise funding) Management Accounting (control firm’s activities) Financial management: aims to raise funds in most suitable and economical manner, to guide investment and to maintain liquidity Life Cycle Costing Management accounting: aims to assist manager in planning, decision-making and controlling firm’s activities
  • 3. The Importance of Financial Management in construction projects Up to date financial records Monitor your financial position -Plan your expenditure to be match with the income; plan the sources of finance Credit Control -checking the money status Knowing day-to day costs -operational costs Have a business plan - cash flow (money in and out) -Where your money will need to be targeted -How much emergency fund the company will be required
  • 4. Cost Control Techniques Five (5) important methods used for Cost Control Techniques for Construction Projects. • WBS: is an organised structure that illustrates the scope of work into manageable concepts. Can illustrate graphically in boxes, text indents, coding, insert some details such as the floor levels • Method Statement: is a description of how work will be carried out safely by providing information on how the work to be done. These include: coding, methodology, quantity of work, machinery, manpower and duration • Bar Chart: To plan and control documents for communicating schedule information using Project Management Software • CPM: Critical path methods • Cash Flow Diagram:Used to visualize the project progress over time which include of projected expenditure, actual expenditure and project income
  • 5. Project-Construction and completion of greenhouse for UiTM Jengka Green House Prelims-1110 Services-1400 Superstructure- 1300 External work 1500 Substructure- 1200 Example: WBS (Work breakdown structure)
  • 6. Method Statement-Example Bil Activity Methods Approach Quantity Machinery Manpower Duration 1100 Preliminaries Mobilisation, access road, excavation 15m JCB 7B 3 workers 1-Kepala 3 days 700 days
  • 10. Cash Flow Diagram • The cash flow statement is a document which models the flow of money in (positive cash Flow) and money out (negative cash flow) • A graph of cost expenditure V time is needed to derived the cash out and cash in for the project. The S curve is drawn to represent the plan cost incurred in doing the project • A stepped line is plotted against the S curve represent the forecast of the money that the contractor will be received. In some cases the client will retain a percentage of the payment. • The stepped line will cross the S curve and this will indicate the anticipated margin
  • 12. S -curve • An S-curve is the piecewise continuous graph showing the accumulated expenditure of completed construction work of a project against its duration from start-up to completion. • The S-curve is considered simultaneously with a step function cumulative curve representing the interim payments received by the contractor from the owner according to project progress • By combining the cost (contractor's expenses) and value (owner's payments) profiles, having made the necessary adjustments for retention and payment delays, one can derive the net cash-flow project profile. • By that, the maximum working capital required by the contractor for the project and the cost of its lock-up working capital; i.e. the amount of interest charged to the contractor due to the execution of the project, if the lock-up working capital is financed by a lending institution
  • 13. Income Actual Expenditure Projected Expenditure Project Cost (RM) Construction Time Cash Flow S-Curve Projected Expenditure - Projected expenditure is an anticipated expenses prior to sales product in due time. Actual Expenditure - Results when money is actually spent on the various supplies, services and other expense categories used by the business. Income - The revenues allocated to projects for a given time period (i.e., payment by client). Break-even Point Profit
  • 14. Financial issues in most construction projects • Contractors incur costs as the construction progresses. As such, contractors have to meet the ongoing weekly payroll and monthly material payment obligations while waiting for owners' discrete payments. The gap (capital lock up)between cumulative expenses and actual payments received needs to be financed. • `Financial management', plays the most important role in cash-flow forecasting and that special caution must be taken in anticipating the occurrence of the following project factors: change of progress; payment duration; project delay; improper planning; inability to manage change orders; number of claims. These factors contributed very high percentages on cash-flow risk compared with the other factors
  • 15. Improving Project cash Flow Several financial manipulations that may improve contractors' project cash-flow/ working capital. • `Front-end rate loading' is the practice of increasing the rates for items of the construction work that take place early in the project. This keeps the overall cost of the work the same but has the effect of increasing the level of payments early in the project and reducing borrowing costs. • Advance payment at project initiation as a percentage of the total contract sum. This payment is then subtracted from the interim payments to the contractor. • A possible reduction in the retainage percentage, if accepted by the owner, will have a positive effect on contractor's cash-flow/working capital needs.
  • 16. Normal Vs Non-normal cash Flow • Normal cash flow project: - Cost negative follow by a series of positive cash inflow - One change of sign
  • 17. Non-normal cash flow project • Two or more changes of sign • Example mining project
  • 18. Capital Expenditure: Importance • Importance: stems from 3 inter-related reasons: Long term Effects • Current capital expenditure provide framework for future activities Irreversibility • Reversal of decision on capital expenditure may occur a substantial loss • No wrong judgment on capital expenditure Substantial capital outlay • Usually involve substantial capital outlays.
  • 19. Capital Budgeting • Therefore, capital budgeting is a systematic approach to determining whether a company’s planned major capital investments are worth pursuing. • Capital budgeting is concerned with the justification of capital expenditures. It can provide a rationale to select between alternative projects: • The QUESTION IS………….Which proposed project will most increase the company’s value over time?
  • 20. Phases of Capital budgeting Planning SELECTION Implementation Review Analysis Is the project worthwhile to invest ? Figure 1: Capital Budgeting Process
  • 21. Selection rules (Appraisal criteria) Criterion Accept Reject Indifferent 1 NPV (Net Present value) NPV>0 NPV <0 NPV=0 2 IRR (internal rate of return) IRR> cost of capital IRR< cost of capital IRR=cost of capital 3 Payback period (PBP) PBP< target period PBP>target period PBP= target period 4 Profitability Index (PI)/Benefit cost ratio PI>1 PI<1 PI=1 5 MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return) MIRR> cost of capital MIRR< cost of capital MIRR= Cost of capital 6 Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) (ROI) ARR>target rate ARR< target rate ARR= target rate
  • 22. Time value of money • Money has time value. A dollar received today has a greater value than a dollar received at some future time . • Time value of money is the idea that money available at present time is worth more than the same amount in the future, due to its potential earning capacity. • When money is borrowed, the interest paid is charge to the borrower. Interest compensates the depositor/lender for the time value of money.
  • 23. Time value of money (cont..) • Therefore when deciding among alternative projects to invest, we must take into account the operation of interest and the time value of money. • For example investors are willing to forgo spending their money now if they expect a favorable return on their investment in the future
  • 24. Interest –time relationship 6 Factors Find Given 1 Future value of a single sum (Compound amount) S P 2 Present value of a single sum (Present worth) P S 3 Future value of annuity ( uniform series of compound amount) S R 4 Present value of annuity (Present worth of uniform series) P R 5 Sinking fund deposit R S 6 Capital recovery R P
  • 25. Cash Flow diagram • Cash flow diagrams are visual representations of cash inflows and outflows along a time line. • They are used to detect which of the five patterns of cash flow is represented by a particular problem. • The cash flow patterns are significant because they allow us to develop interest formulas. The five patterns of a cash flow are:
  • 26. Cash Flow diagram • Eg. A company plans to invest RM 500,000 (p) (downward-pointing arrow) to manufacture a new product. The sale of this product is expected to provide a net income of RM 70,000 (upward pointing arrow) a year for 5 years , beginning at the end of the first year S=70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 P=500,000 1 2 3 4 5 N=year i=?
  • 27. • Single payment: Present worth; future worth • Equal payment series: Future worth; present worth factor; sinking fund; capital recovery • Linear gradient: gradient present worth; gradient equal payment • Geometric pattern series: present worth • Uneven series: A series of cash flows exhibiting no overall pattern.
  • 28. QUIZ 1 • Eg: If RM 500,000 is deposited in a bank today for 8 years at a compound interest rate of 10% per year. What is the amount in the account at the end of 8 years?
  • 29. QUIZ 2 • A man has deposited RM 50,000 in a retirement income plan with a local bank. The bank pays 10% per year, compounded annually. What is the maximum amount the man can withdraw at the end of each year for 10 years
  • 30. QUIZ 3  Eg: A contractor’s bank statement shows a credit of RM 500,000 as a result of a small investment made 6 years ago. Interest over this period has been 15%. What was the original investment?
  • 31. QUIZ 4 • Eg: Given an interest rate 15% per year, what sum would be accumulated after 10 years if RM 5,000 were invested at the end of each years for 10years
  • 32. QUIZ 5 Eg: What sum of money should be deposited in a bank in order to provide 12 equal annual withdrawals of RM 3,000, the first of which will be made one year after the deposit. The fund pays 15%
  • 33. QUIZ 6 Eg: Your sister is currently 3 years old and will go to college at the age of 18. Assuming that when she starts college, she will need at least RM 80,000 in a bank. How much do you need to save each year in order to have enough funds if the current rate of interest is 10%.
  • 34. QUIZ 7 • Mary wishes to determine the equal annual end-of-year deposits required to accumulate RM 30,000 at the end of 5 years when her son enters collage . • The interest rate is 10%. Calculate the annual deposit
  • 35. QUIZ 8 Eg: Your father deposits RM 680,000 on retirement into a bank which pays 10% annually interest. How much he can withdraw annually for a period of 15 years
  • 36. QUIZ 9 • A woman deposits RM 2000 in a saving account that pays interest 10% per year compounded annually. If all the money is allowed to accumulate, how much will she have at the end of 10 years?
  • 37. Quiz 10 • How much must a family invest now to provide a lump sum of RM 2,500, 4,500 4,500, 4,500 and 5,500 for a school fees at the end of 2yrs, 4yrs 6yrs, 8yrs and 10yrs if the interest is 5%?
  • 38. Quiz 11 • An investor buys a site near KLCC for RM 30,000,000. Annual outgoings on the site for maintenance is RM 30,000. It is estimated that the site will not be sold for 5 yrs. • For what minimum price must the site be sold at break even cost (5yrs) if the purchase price and the annual outgoings were borrowed at 10% per year?
  • 39. Quiz 12 • You borrow RM 50,000 to finance educational expenses for your senior year of collage. The loan will be paid over 5 yrs. The loan carries interest rate 5% per year and is to be repaid in equal annual instalments over the next 5 yrs. • Compute the annual instalment.
  • 40. Quiz 13 • Ron Jafee has been given an opportunity to receive RM 20,000, 6 years from now. If he can earns 10% on his investment, what is the most he should pay for his opportunity?
  • 41. QUIZ 14 • You borrow RM 21,061.82 to finance educational expenses and will be paid over 7 years time with an interest rate 5%. Compute the annual installment. • Suppose you wanted to defer the first installment until end of year 2, what should be the annual installment for 5 equal installment
  • 42. Quiz 15 • If Laurel made a RM 30,000 investment in a friend’s business and received RM 50,000 five years later, determine the rate of return ,i
  • 43. Net Present Value (NPV ) • The basis of NPV method is that all future payments/receipts are converted to present value. • NPV can be used as to determine whether a project is profitable enough to be considered a worthwhile investment. • Accept the project if positive NPV, reject if negative NPV • Project with the highest NPV is the most favorable to invest
  • 44. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) • The internal rate of return (IRR) of a project is the discount rate (interest) which makes NPV=0 • The purpose is to differentiate between 2 or more projects in order to choose the least expensive. • The IRR sometimes is called as discounted cash flow yield (DCF) Yield • IRR is the maximum interest rate that could be paid on borrowed capital
  • 45. Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) • MARR is a reasonable rate of return established for the evaluation and selection of alternatives. • A project is not economically viable unless it is expected to return at least the MARR • MARR sometimes called as hurdle rate, cutoff rate, benchmark rate and minimum acceptable rate of return
  • 46. Size of MARR relative to other rate of return values
  • 47. Incremental analysis • incremental analysis is used to analyze the difference between the two projects; • Compute the cash flow for the difference between the projects by subtracting the cash flow for the lower investment from that of the higher investment
  • 48. Interest paid & Interest Earned • Two perspectives of interests are: interest paid and interest earned. • Interest is paid when a person/organization borrowed money/loan and repays a larger amount over time • Interest is earned when a person/organization saved/invested/or lent money and obtains a return of a larger amount over time
  • 49. Example: NPV & IRR Accept the project if NPV is positive; Reject the project if NPV is negative; Project with the highest NPV is the most favorable to invest MARR=10% Case 1: To find IRR; interpolating between 10% and 20%; IRRA=10%+{10X76700/76700+22100} IRRA=17.763%; therefore < than 17.63% accept the proposal and > than 17,763% reject the proposal. Case 2: IRR=33.01%; Less than < 33.01% accept the proposal; > 33.01% reject the proposal Case 1 Year Cash Flow PW Factor (10%) PW PW Factor (20%) PW 0 (1,105,000) 1 (1,105,000) 1 (1,105,000) 1 1,300,000 0.909 1,181,700 0.833 1,082,900 NPV 195,000 NPV= 76,700 NPV= (22,100) Year C/F PW factor (10%) PW factor PW factor (35%) PW 0 (900,000.00) 1 (900,000.00) 1 (900,000.00) 1 1,300,000.00 0.909 1,181,700.00 0.741 875,639.70 NPV 400,000.00 281,700.00 (24,360.30) Case 2
  • 50. Example 1: NPV & IRR (Equal service lives) IRR C1= Between 12% and 22% IRRC2= Between 12% and 22% IRRC1= 18.42% IRR C2 =20.20% Intersection point =15%; > 15% select project c2; less than 15% select project C1 since Marr is 12% less than 15% select project C1 9 C1 C2 C1 C2 22.0% C1 C2 years C/F C/F PW factor 0 -9,000 -9,000 1 480 5800 2 3700 3230 3 6550 2000 4 3780 1561 5510 3611 NPV 1993.31 1508.34 If MARR=10%; which project shall you select, C1 or C2
  • 51. Intersection point and Incremental analysis • When NPV and IRR conflicts with each other, solve the problem: a) determining the intersection (fisher’s) (using graph paper). An intersection between the slopes of the cash flow profiles is called Fisher’s intersection- after the economist Irving Fisher. b) incremental analysis is used to analyze the difference between the two projects; Compute the cash flow for the difference between the projects by subtracting the cash flow for the lower investment from that of the higher investment; c) Solve the problem by MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return)
  • 52. NPV and IRR: Equal service lives C1 C2 years C/F C/F 0 -9,000 -9,000 1 480 5800 2 3700 3230 3 6550 2000 4 3780 1561 5510 3611 IRR C1-C2= Between 10% and 16% IRR C1-C2 =14.85%; Intersection point =15%; > 15% select project C2; less than 15% select project C1 Since MARR= 12% less than 15% select project C1
  • 53. Example 2: NPV, IRR and intersection point Two mutually exclusive projects to be chosen, project B1 or B2 ? Which project would you select at MARR (minimum attractive rate of return) =10% Both projects have positive NPV, therefore they are both attractive and can be accepted. Year B1 B2 PW factor (10%) PW B1 PW B2 PW factor (26%) B1 B2 0 -3,000 -12,000 1 1350 4200 2 1800 6225 3 1500 6330 NPV @ 0 interest 1650 4755 Intersection point 15.07%
  • 54. Incremental analysis Year B1 B2 0 -3,000 -12,000 1 1350 4200 2 1800 6225 3 1500 6330 NPV@0 interest 1650 4755 IRR 25.55% 18.33% The intersection is at point 15.07% If >15.07%, select project B1 while if <15.07%, then select project B2
  • 55. Comments-NPV • NPV is absolute measure. It is dependent on the size of the contribution of the project to the wealth of the company. Projects that maximizes the total NPV will maximize the total value of a company. • The main difficulty is the choice of discount rate. • The discount rate on the curve where the NPV changes from positive to negative represents IRR. • IRR/DCF yield is the max interest rate that could be paid on borrowed capital.
  • 56. Comments on IRR • IRR is the value of the discount rate at which NPV=0 • IRR is a relative measure, it does not depend upon the size of the project or the investment.
  • 57. QUIZ 16: Which project shall you select, A, B or C; If MARR=15%; YEAR A B C 0 -1000 -5000 -2000 1 500 7,500 1,500 2 2500 600 2,000
  • 58. A B C A B C A YEAR A B C 0 -1000 -5000 -2000 1 500 7,500 1,500 2 2500 600 2,000 NPV @0 2000 3100 1500 B-A A B C  IRRA=Interpolating between 60% & 90%; IRRA= 86.00% Int Npv Int Npv Int Npv  IRRB=Interpolating between 15% & 60% IRRB=58.29%  IRRC= Interpolating between 15% & 60% IRRC= 48. 47% Intersection point is 45%; B-A=45%>15%; select B; drop A SOLUTION
  • 59. QUIZ 17 • Alternative A, B, C have lives of 5 years. Which is the best alternatives if the MARR is 10%. Doing nothing is allowed, but the alternatives are mutually exclusive. alternatives First cost (RM) Annual Return (RM) A 10,000 2913 B 15,000 4266 C 18,000 5037
  • 60. Answer QUIZ 17 Year A B C Pw factor (10%) A B C PW factor (15%) A B C 0 -10,000 -15,000 -18,000 1 -10000 -15000 -18000 1 -10000 -15000 -18000 1 2,913 4266 5037 0.909 2647.917 3877.794 4578.633 0.87 2534.31 3711.42 4382.19 2 2913 4266 5037 0.826 2406.138 3523.716 4160.562 0.756 2202.228 3225.096 3807.972 3 2913 4266 5037 0.751 2187.663 3203.766 3782.787 0.658 1916.754 2807.028 3314.346 4 2913 4266 5037 0.683 1989.579 2913.678 3440.271 0.572 1666.236 2440.152 2881.164 5 2913 4266 5037 0.621 1808.973 2649.186 3127.977 0.497 1447.761 2120.202 2503.389 Total NPV @0 interest 4,565 6,330 7,185 1040.27 1168.14 1090.23 -232.711 -696.102 -1110.94 A B C Fisher's intersection Total NPV @ 0 interest 4565 6330 7185 IRR 14.08% 13.13% 12.47% C-B 9.00% <10% , the increment not justified; B is preferred than C C-A 10.75% > 10% ; C is preferred B-A 11.00% > 10%, B is preferred Therefore, B is the preferred alternatives, since it has the highest NPV (1168.14) at 10%.

Editor's Notes

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