S Curve

1. Technology
S-­‐Curve
Analysis
(TSC)
is
a
method
for
determining
the
rela;onship
between
investment
in
improving
technology
and
pay
back
in
corresponding
market
sales.
Typically,
the
curve
takes
the
shape
of
an
S
given
the
phases
of
market
development
aBer
an
ini;al
period
of
technology
development,
including:
(1)
market
launch
with
significant
adver;sing
and
promo;on
and
slow
growth
up
to
an
inflec;on
point
in
the
S
curve
signaling
market
awareness,
(2)
spontaneous
sales
growth,
(3)
maturity
and
decline.
TSC
Analysis
is
par;cularly
useful
in
the
period
proceeding
launching
a
new
technology,
as
launching
new
technology
is
a
unique
exercise
in
managing
uncertainty.
Of
the
many
uncertain;es
involved,
the
largest
include:
technological
feasibility,
market
;ming,
high
ini;al
costs,
range
of
markets,
first-­‐;me
buyers,
price,
compe;;ve
vola;lity,
required
capital
investment.
TSC
Analysis
provides
an
intelligent
framework
for
trea;ng
these
issues
comprehensively.
During
later
stages
of
a
technology,
the
TSC
provides
a
framework
for
assessing
the
remaining
life
of
the
technology.
This
can
be
extremely
valuable
for
developing
business
strategy,
shiBing
resources
away
from
exis;ng
technologies
before
they
become
obsolete
to
investments
in
next-­‐genera;on
technologies.
Contact us to view an actual case example
Purpose:
TSC
Analysis
provides
five
major
elements
of
intelligence:
•
Iden;fica;on
of
the
current
technology
life-­‐span
in
the
industry
•
Es;mate
of
poten;al
technological
limits
and
discon;nui;es
in
the
industry
•
Understanding
the
economics
of
technological
innova;on:
;ming
and
magnitude
of
industry
change
•
Assessment
of
company’s
posi;on
on
the
S
curve
•
Quan;fica;on
of
innova;on
investment
vs.
payoff
Use:
•
Iden;fy
performance
drivers
for
a
technology
•
Develop
strategy
based
on
the
company’s
posi;on
on
the
S
curve
•
Guide
R&D
efforts,
ra;onale,
;ming
and
alloca;on
of
limited
R&D
resources
•
Determine
feasible
limits
and
corresponding
level
of
investment
in
technology
•
Track
performance
improvement
of
key
drivers
versus
effort
expended
Exhibit
at
a
glance
TECHNOLOGY
S
CURVE
ANALYSIS
©
2014
Great
Prairie
Group
LLC.
All
rights
reserved.