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中國開放二胎效益
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Moomin Liu
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中國第十八屆五中全會於10月底落幕,會中取消一胎化政策,全面開放二胎成為最大亮點。然而,中國大陸政府為何要全面開放二胎,而實際執行的效益又有多少呢?
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中國開放二胎效益
1.
兩個孩子恰恰好! 談中國開放二胎效益
2.
三大挑戰來臨,中國決定開放二胎 老年人口比重攀高 生育率持續下滑 1990年 21.06‰ 2000年 14.03‰ 2010年 11.90‰ 出生率 人口紅利流失 2017年 10億(高峰) 2030年 9.89億 2050年 8.62億 工作勞動人口(預估) 1990年 5.6% 2000年 7.0% 2010年 8.9% 65歲以上比例
3.
中國生育政策放寬 2013年以前 2013年 2015年 一胎化管制政策
單獨二胎 全面二胎 一對夫妻 只生育一個子女 獨生子女夫妻 可生育兩個子女 任何夫妻 可生育兩個子女
4.
開放二胎政策成效預估 15-64歲 (10億) 65歲以上 (1.4億) 0-14歲 (2.3億) 估計每年帶來的新增人口為500萬新生兒 資料來源:中國統計局、美國霍普金斯大學生物統計學博士黃文政 2014 人 口 分 布 目標:改善人口結構
5.
BUT…現實因素打擊二胎效益 資料來源:<中國難現嬰兒潮的五大原因>,華爾街日報 二胎生育仍有障礙 二胎生產要事先通知生育部門,若未登記則要繳交罰鍰。 家庭開支壓力大 第一胎享最好資源,第二胎同樣方法開支太大。 社會福利不足 中國出生地將決定未來的教育和退休津貼,在出生地以外 地方將享受不到任何福利。
6.
過去單獨二胎成效令人擔憂 單獨二胎 全面二胎 1千萬對 9千萬對符合夫婦 生育數
<50萬對 <450萬對(推估) 註:單獨二胎生育數為2014年數據
Editor's Notes
更令人頭疼的是,中國的「人口紅利」正在迅速流失,不利經濟發展。可工作的勞動人口預計到2017年最高峰時達到10億人,之後將一路下滑,2030年可減少至9.89億,2050年將可減至8.62億,相當於本世紀初的水平。
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