Chapter 2.ppt of macroeconomics by mankiw 9th edition
2018 Wall Street Week Stock Pitch, First Place
1. Joe Braun | Garret Markey | Victoria Lineweaver | Jake White
2. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 2
Company Overview
Final Thoughts
Industry Dynamics
Growth Drivers
Valuation
Appendix
Investment Thesis 3
5
8
11
17
22
26
3. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 3
Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis Explained Basis for Undervaluation
• MasTec’s Communications segment has long been their
revenue leader but it is poised to see unexpected
growth following an acceleration of 5G rollouts
throughout 2018
• The Oil & Gas has seen explosive growth (52% CAGR)
over the past 10 years, even in down markets
• These two segments have historically driven margins
higher for MTZ and are expected to continue to do so
going forward
• Price target of $66.00 offers upside of 45.1%
Target Duration Upside
$66 12 mo. 45%
Rapid Expansion of AT&T mobile 5G
Network
Continued Strength of Oil & Gas
Segment
Enhanced Top Line Growth and
Margin Improvements
MasTec
Peer Group
LTM P/E LTM EV/EBITDA LTM EV/Revenue
0.8x7.1x10.7x
1.8x10.3x25.2x
Source: Bloomberg, Team Projections
4. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 4
MTZ LTM Stock Performance & Valuation
$45.00 $55.00 $65.00 $75.00 $85.00 $95.00
DCF EBITDA Exit Multiple
DCF Perpetuity Growth
2018 P/E
2018 EV/EBITDA
2018 EV/Revenue
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
3/7/2017 5/7/2017 7/7/2017 9/7/2017 11/7/2017 1/7/2018 3/7/2018
Current Price: $45.50 Target Price: $66.00
Source: Bloomberg, Team Projections
*Current Price as of close 3/28/18
6. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 6
Company Overview
Company Description Earnings Beats
• MasTec is a leading infrastructure construction
company operating throughout North America
• The company engineers, builds, installs, maintains and
upgrades:
• Wireless, wireline/fiber, install-to-the-home and
customer fulfillment
• Petroleum and natural gas pipelines and
facilities
• Electrical transmission & distribution
• Power generation and industrial
EBIT Margins vs. Industry Leaders Segment Breakdown
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Estimated Reported
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$inmillions
Communications EBITDA Communications Revenue
Oil &Gas EBITDA Oil & Gas Revenue
2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
EXPO AGX TTEK DY MTZ
Source: Bloomberg, MTZ 10-K
2017 2018
7. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 7
Operations
Communications Oil & Gas
• The communication segment works with engineering,
construction, maintenance and customer fulfillment
activities for communications infrastructure, primarily
for wireless and wireline/fiber communications and
install-to-the-home customers
• 2017A Revenue: $2424.4M
• Increased demand for faster and more reliable wireless
and wireline/fiber communications
• Due to increased mobile and business data usage
• MasTec has a balanced pipeline portfolio of long-haul,
mid-stream, gathering line and facilities services for oil
and natural gas
• 2017A Revenue: $3,497.2M
• New administration is expected to ease strict
regulations and streamline permitting
• 34,027 miles of pipeline are planned, or
underway in North America
• International expansion in Canada and Mexico have
seen positive guidance from Q3 onwards after being
hampered by commodity prices
Electrical Transmission Power Generation and Industrial
• MasTec maintains, upgrades and expands the U.S.
electrical transmission and distribution infrastructure
to manage power line congestion and avoid delivery
failures
• 2017A Revenue: $378.2M
• Large project bidding due to streamlined regulation
process
• Deals awarded in 2017 will be realized in 2018
and beyond
• MasTec is a top tier contractor in wind farm
construction services, including civil, electrical
substation and transmission line integration
• 2017A Revenue: $300M
• Operate in wind operations and management, a fast
growing market due to aging wind asset
• Renewable energy sources offer tax incentives for many
companies
• Expectations of companies continuing to chose
renewable resources sparking project growth
Source: Bloomberg, MTZ 10-K
9. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 9
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
$50
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$inbillions
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$inbillionsIndustry Overview
Wireless Tower Construction Oil & Gas Pipeline Construction
• The wireless tower construction industry is a fast
growing industry with rapid technology and process
change
• MasTec is continuing to grow their position as a
major player in this industry by strategic
acquisitions and maintaining customer
relationships
• Telecommunication service providers are expected to
expand high-speed data services, while also repairing
and maintaining existing infrastructure
• The Oil & Gas pipeline construction industry is
anticipating an annualized growth rate of 2.7% over the
next five years
• MasTec increased revenue 72.8% from 2016 to
2017 despite industry revenue decreasing 1.7%
• The government recently lifted a ban on exporting raw
crude oil, opening demand for pipeline infrastructure to
transport crude oil destined for exporting
Wireless Tower Revenue Pipeline Industry Revenue
Source: Bloomberg, IBIS World
10. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 10
Competitor Profile
Communication Competition Oil & Gas Competition
• Four of the largest players make up 40% of the market
while the rest is made up of smaller regional players
• Major players are able to enhance savings by building in
scale and expanding in existing markets without
significantly increasing overhead costs
• Contracts are open to competitive bidding, therefore
customer relationships are very important
• Similar to the communication industry, oil & gas
pipeline construction uses similar bidding techniques to
offer contracts
• MasTec has experience with landing contracts in
both industries offering them a competitive
advantage
• The workforce demands highly skilled workers,
requiring most players in the industry to subcontract
their workers
• Wages made up 31.6% of industry revenue in
2017
Peer Competitors Competitive Trends
• Ability to quickly adapt to new technology
• Strong reputation
• Capability of operating in diverse markets
• Access to highly skilled work force
• Experience in competing on tender
• Accommodation of environmental policies
Source: Bloomberg, IBIS World
12. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 12
Fiber Explained
Fiber Overview Fiber Investment
• Deep fiber is the term used for bring fiber closer to
customers to increase speed and capacity
• However, with transmission at higher frequencies this
network will cause difficulty with signals not being able
to reach as far or penetrate walls or other barriers as
easily
• This is what causes the need for more fiber
implementation
• Fiber deployment is critical for increasing connectivity
and supporting wireless densification, so that 5G can
continue to push and drive innovation
• Estimates show the United States is going to need
investments of $130 - $150 billion in fiber
infrastructure
• Fiber demand is continuing to increase as it has been
identified as the key component of 5G implementation
• Without deep fiber the projected 4x increase in
mobile data traffic between 2016 and 2021 will
be unachievable
Where Will This Fiber Go? Fiber Needed for FirstNet
Copper
Current Lack of
Deep Fiber Deep Fiber
LTE 5G IOT
Fiber
Fiber
Fiber
Fiber Fiber
Coax
Coax
InternetInternet
Macro Cell
Macro Cell
Small Cell
Microwavelink
Tower Deployment
Fiber Deployment/Interconnect
Source: Bloomberg, IBIS World, Team Projections
13. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 13
$34
$38
$42
$46
$50
$54
1/11/2017 4/11/2017 7/11/2017 10/11/2017
StockPrice
Key Communication Drivers
Market Lags Behind 5G Race Under Promise Over Perform
• AT&T expects to have mobile 5G in a dozen US cities by
the end of 2018
• Tax reform gives AT&T and other service providers
more capital to invest in 5G speeding up the process
• CMO of AT&T, explains with the recent
legislation freeing up capital a main focus will be
5G expansion in recent telecommunications
conference
• Management continues to surprise and beat earnings
estimates
• They have beat revenue and EPS estimates 8 out
of the last 8 reports
• Management believes that the market does not see the
monumental growth possibilities in store for 5G in 2018
• “What’s coming on the communication side of
the business … people don’t have a grasp or an
understanding of”
AT&T’s Wireless Relationships Early Stages of Understanding
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
MasTec Inc American
Tower Corp
Crown Castle
Corp
Dycom
Industries
$inmillions
Source: Bloomberg, IBIS World, Team Projections
14. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 14
Internal Drivers
Optimal Revenue Realizations Acquisitions
• Positive revenue outlook from the communication
segment
• Strong customer relationships and lucrative
contracts continue to expand backlog
• In 2018, communication and oil & gas segments will
continue to win contracts and customers, increasing
their backlog contributions
• MasTec’s acquisition of a specialty pipeline equipment
provider will help them cut equipment costs for the oil
& gas segment
• A recent acquisition in the areas of civil engineering,
water, sewer, and draining systems places MasTec in a
premium position to meet increased demand from this
market
• SEFNCO acquisition creates expansion opportunities in
new geographic locations
Historical Backlog Completion Strong AT&T Relationship
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17
%Completion
Source: Bloomberg, MTZ 10-K, Team Projections
15. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 15
External Drivers
Mobile Data Expansions FirstNet
• Mobile data traffic will increase sevenfold from 2016 to
2021
• Global mobile data traffic is expected to grow twice as
fast as fixed IP traffic from 2016 to 2021
• Per capita disposable income drives growth in mobile
data usage
• It is expected to grow at an annualized rate of
2.8%
• Separate wireless network that can be dedicated to first
responders in emergencies
• AT&T accounted for 25% of MasTec’s Revenue
• AT&T is expected to invest $40 billion into this
project
• Strong relationship with AT&T offers strong build out
opportunities for FirstNet tower and fiber deployment
Mobile Data Traffic Communication Catalysts
5G Wireless
Deployment
1 Gigabit
Internet
Upgrades
FirstNet
Emergency
Network
High-speed
Video & Data
Delivery
Deep Fiber
is the Key
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
NumberinPetabytes
Source: Bloomberg, IBIS World, Team Projections
16. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 16
External Drivers
Oil & Gas Expectations Margin Expansion
• North American midstream oil & gas is expected to have
spending of $230 billion over the next 10 years
• A majority of this spending is expected to take
place from 2017 through 2019
• Government regulations will continue to push the use of
natural gas because of its fuel efficiency, low emissions
and reduced capital costs
• Operations in Canada and Mexico have seen upgraded
growth projections due to the recent weakening of the
dollar (expected through 2018)
• Operating margins for MasTec as a whole sit close to
6%, compressed by recent losses in the Electrical
Transmission division
• Projected growth in Communications and Oil &
Gas, two segments that typically trend toward
higher relative margins, will gradually increase
overall operating margins
• Acquisitions in these segments offer MTZ a
competitive advantage in their industry and also
significant progress on backlog
Oil & Gas Spending US Dollar to Canadian Dollar
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
$inbillions
Natural Gas Crude Oil NGL
$1.20
$1.25
$1.30
$1.35
$1.40
3/28/2017 6/28/2017 9/28/2017 12/28/2017 3/28/2018
Source: Bloomberg, IBIS World, Team Projections
18. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 18
$45.00 $55.00 $65.00 $75.00 $85.00 $95.00
DCF EBITDA Exit Multiple
DCF Perpetuity Growth
2018 P/E
2018 EV/EBITDA
2018 EV/Revenue
Valuation Overview
Current Price: $45.50
P/2018E: $5.20 8.7x 10.6x 12.5x 14.4x 16.3x 18.3x
P/2019E: $5.73 7.9x 9.6x 11.3x 13.1x 14.8x 16.6x
MTZ represents a weak current price with significant growth and upside potential
Target Price: $66.00
*Current Price as of close 3/28/18
Source: Bloomberg, Team Projections
19. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 19
Multiples Analysis
Relative P/E vs. Industry MTZ vs. Peer Group Average
EBITDA Margin Progression Margins Continue to Lead
• MasTec’s operating margin has been roughly in line
with their competitors due to poor performance in the
Electrical Transmissions division
• Recent acquisitions and process improvements
seek to mitigate that risk
• EBITDA margin is expected to stabilize in the 11-12%
range according guidance
• This range is above their peer set but below the
top performers in the RGUSPEC
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
30.0x
35.0x
5/11/2012 5/11/2013 5/11/2014 5/11/2015 5/11/2016 5/11/2017
MTZ Equity RGUSPEC Index
- -
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018E
Total EBITDA Margin Communications EBITDA Margin Oil & Gas EBITDA Margin
Company EV/Revenue 2017A EV/Revenue 2018E
MasTec 0.8x 0.7x
Peer Group Average 1.8x 1.7x
Company EV/EBITDA 2017A EV/EBITDA 2018E
MasTec 7.1x 6.0x
Peer Group Average 10.3x 9.3x
Company P/E 2017A P/E 2018E
MasTec 10.7x 8.8x
Peer Group Average 25.2x 18.8x
Company EPS 2017A EPS 2018E
MasTec $4.24 $5.20
Peer Group Average $2.22 $2.72
Source: Bloomberg, Team Projections
20. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 20
Comparable Companies Analysis
Valuation Commentary Implied Valuation
• MasTec’s earnings are offered to the investor at a
significantly lower cost than their peers
• Trends towards undervaluation from both
forward and backward-looking multiples
• EBITDA multiples are historically low for adjacent
companies (6-8%)
• FY 2018 guidance for MTZ is in the 11-12%
range
MTZ 2018E EBITDA $839
EV/ EBITDA Multiple 7.9x ---------------- 9.3x
Equity Value $5,389 ---------------- $6,578
Implied Stock Price $65.13 ---------------- $79.49
MTZ 2018E EPS $5.20
P/E Multiple 14.2x ---------------- 16.9x
Implied Stock Price $73.84 ---------------- $87.97
MTZ 2018E Revenue $7,224
EV/ Revenue Multiple 0.9x ---------------- 1.0x
Equity Value $5,261 ---------------- $5,984
Implied Stock Price $63.58 ---------------- $72.31
Share Shares Market Net Enterprise EBITDAMargin EV / EBITDA EV / Sales Price / Earnings
Price Outstanding Cap Debt Value 2017 A 2018 E 2017 A 2018 E 2017 A 2018 E 2017 A 2018 E
AmericanTower AMT $146.25 428.8 $62,715 $19,403 $82,118 61.2% 61.1% 20.1x 18.7x 12.3x 11.4x 54.4x 45.7x 254.0%
Jacobs EngineeringGroup JEC 57.78 141.6 8,179 (536) 7,643 6.7% 6.6% 11.5x 11.4x 0.8x 0.7x 18.6x 19.2x 5.3%
Primoris Services PRIM 26.23 51.5 1,350 89 1,438 6.8% 7.6% 8.8x 7.5x 0.6x 0.6x 18.9x 16.3x 46.1%
DycomIndustries DY 114.78 30.9 3,551 721 4,273 13.8% 13.6% 10.1x 9.3x 1.4x 1.3x 24.8x 19.8x 113.2%
Fluor FLR 56.32 139.9 7,880 (460) 7,420 4.7% 4.9% 8.1x 8.0x 0.4x 0.4x 20.0x 17.5x 46.4%
MYR Group MYRG 36.45 16.5 600 77 677 4.6% 6.0% 10.4x 7.7x 0.5x 0.5x 53.6x 20.3x 28.8%
KBR KBR 16.40 140.2 2,299 69 2,368 8.2% 7.7% 6.9x 7.2x 0.6x 0.6x 11.1x 12.1x 41.6%
Aecom ACM 35.51 159.3 5,657 3,042 8,699 4.6% 4.4% 10.5x 10.6x 0.5x 0.5x 15.4x 14.9x 91.2%
Tutor Perini TPC 20.90 49.8 1,040 543 1,584 4.1% 5.6% 8.1x 5.5x 0.3x 0.3x 14.4x 9.6x 43.2%
QuantaServices PWR 34.25 153.3 5,252 534 5,786 7.0% 7.8% 8.8x 7.2x 0.6x 0.6x 20.9x 13.2x 17.7%
Company Name Ticker
Debt /
Equity
MasTec Inc MTZ $45.50 82.8 $3,765 $1,240 $5,006 10.7% 11.6% 7.1x 6.0x 0.8x 0.7x 10.7x 8.8x 98.1%
Average $9,852 $2,348 $12,201 12.2% 12.5% 10.3x 9.3x 1.8x 1.7x 25.2x 18.8x 68.7%
Median 4,402 311 5,029 6.8% 7.1% 9.5x 7.8x 0.6x 0.6x 19.4x 16.9x 44.6%
Source: Bloomberg, Team Projections
23. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 23
SWOT
STRENGTHS
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
Situational Analysis
• Early adoption and cornering of the
5G communications market
• Strong top line and operating margin
growth through 2018 and beyond
• $5 Billion in backlog located
primarily in high margin segments
• Significant undervaluation in a
historically strong market
• High attrition rate in workforce
throughout the industry
• Elevated cost of capital compared to
peers
• Due in large part to MasTec’s
higher levels of equity funding
relative to competitors
• Free Cash Flow generation depends
heavily on working capital
requirements
• Strong relationship with AT&T makes
MasTec a frontrunner for potential
5G tower construction
• Continual integration of new
acquisitions with existing segments
• Increased profitability with new
corporate tax policy
• Diversification of income streams
allows for significant operational
mobility
• Volatility in oil prices could affect the
demand for MasTec’s pipeline
services
• Elimination of backlog can be delayed
by events out of human control, such
as natural disasters
• 5G tower construction is dependent
on demand and independent timing
of telecommunication companies
Source: Bloomberg, MTZ 10-K, Team Projections
24. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 24
Management
José R. Mas Robert Apple
• Chief Executive Officer
• Appointed CEO of MasTec in 2007
• Has grown up in the business, working from the
field to the boardroom
• During his tenure as CEO, revenues have more
than doubled and earnings have grown six fold
• Lead in diversification of the company
• Ernst & Young National Entrepreneur award winner in
both 2011 and 2012
• Obtained B.B.A. and M.B.A. from the University of Miami
• Chief Operating Officer
• Has held management roles within MasTec since 2005
• Prior to that, has 30 years of operational and senior
management experience in commercial, technical and
service-based corporations
• Served in managerial roles within DIRECTV®
for 7 years
• 11 years of management history in Hughes
Electronics
• Graduated from U.S. Naval Academy, was lieutenant
colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps
George L. Pita Excellent Credentials
• Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
• From 2008 to 2010 served as a special advisor to Atlas
Acquisition Holdings, Corp.
• CPA for approximately 30 years
• Earned a B.B.A. and a B.S. in Accounting from the
University of Miami
Source: Bloomberg, MTZ 10-K
25. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 25
Final Thoughts
Target Duration Upside
$66 12 mo. 45%
Rapid Expansion of AT&T mobile 5G
Network
Continued Strength of Oil & Gas
Segment
Enhanced Top Line Growth and
Margin Improvements
Current Price: $45.50 Target Price: $66.00
$45.00 $55.00 $65.00 $75.00 $85.00 $95.00
DCF EBITDA Exit Multiple
DCF Perpetuity Growth
2018 P/E
2018 EV/EBITDA
2018 EV/Revenue
Source: Bloomberg, Team Projections
*Current Price as of close 3/28/18
33. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 33
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
3/7/2017 5/7/2017 7/7/2017 9/7/2017 11/7/2017 1/7/2018 3/7/2018
MTZ TTM Key Events
1 – 04/03/2017 – MasTec initiated at neutral with PT of $42 by Credit Suisse analyst Jamie Cook
2 – 05/04/2017 – MasTec 1Q adjusted EPS beats highest estimates
3 – 05/24/2017 – MasTec falls amid Dycom’s Disappointing Revenue View
4 – 07/24/2017 – Credit Suisse raised MasTec to outperform at a PT of $55
5 – 08/03/2017 – MasTec FY adjusted EPS forecast tops estimates
6 – 08/18/2017 – MasTec Raised to Buy at Citi
7 – 08/29/2017 – Reported that MasTec may see positive from Hurricane Harvey
8 – 09/07/2017 – MasTec speak at roadshow hosted by Canaccord Genuity
9 – 10/16/2017 – MasTec reports pipeline construction award valued over $1.5 billion
10 – 11/06/2017 – MasTec upgraded at Baird with a PT of $53
11 – 11/09/2017 – MasTec short interest rises
12 – 11/16/2017 – MasTec speaks at roadshow hosted by Stifel
13 – 1/29/18 – MasTec implied volatility surges
14 – 2/12/18 – MasTec implied volatility drops
15 – 2/28/18 – MasTec reader interest increases
16 – 3/16/18 – MasTec’s Johnson sells over $760,000 share of stock
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: Bloomberg
34. “Infrastructure that Delivers” 34
Important Quotes
External Opinions
Internal Opinions
• AT&T’s Randall Stephenson, “...the U.S. is going to see a lot of fiber deployed over the next few years as a by-product of 5G...”
April 26, 2017
• Verizon’s Matthew Ellis, “Fiber is a critical component of our network strategy and next generation deployments...” April 20,
2017
• Verizon to purchase 12.4 million miles of Corning fiber each year from 2018 through 2020... April 18, 2017
• Comcast’s Brian Roberts, “...right now, it’s really just speed as the main differentiator” April 27, 2017
• $60-250 billion in 5G CAPEX is likely to last a decade, peaking in the next 3-8 years... Deutsche Bank, October 9, 2017
• Our margins are significantly impacted by utilization levels, and as volume and demand goes up, we should see a
corresponding benefit to margins” - José Mas, CEO, 2/26/16
• “The beauty of having a capacity-constrained industry is that customers want reliable contractors that they can count on to
bring their projects in on time and on budget” - José Mas, CEO, 11/30/17
• On a reported basis we're going to have a 13% comp which we absolutely think we can beat. If you kind of pro forma the
2017 number and back out the cost pass through, you're looking more at a 14% number which is probably something a lot
closer to what we'll be talking about in the future. - José Mas, CEO, 11/30/17
• “Our normal comfort range at ~1.9x Leverage” - Mark Davis, VP of Investor Relations, 1/8/2018
Source: Bloomberg, MTZ 10-K