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8月相場は波乱含み
~好決算は織り込み済み~
株式会社 Argo Navis
フィナンシャルコンシェルジュ 清水洋
介
http://argonavis.co.jp
平成 29 年7月 31 日
好調な決算も・・・ -決算動向に注目-
2
日本株を積極的に買い上がる材料は?
 → 為替への反応は限定的
 → 好決算で買われた銘柄の動きに引き続き注目
 → 政治や北朝鮮は売り材料になるか
 → 好決算は織り込まれている?
誰が買っているか・・・
 → 上昇が継続しない?
 → 好決算に反応しても買い戻しばかり
 → 日本株も米国株も利益確定が優先
 → 世界的に「リスク回避」? ・・・ 世界的
な金余りの終焉
世界的な金余りは終わったか -世界の情勢-
3
世界的に「リスク回避」の動きになるか
米国株は高値を取っているが
 → 好景気の持続はどこまで?
 → 「利上げ」「資産圧縮」でリスク回避へ
 → トランプリスクも取りざたされるか
日本株を売り急ぐ材料はあるか?
 → 好決算は織り込み済み? ・・・ 買われ過ぎの修正
も
 → 空売りの買戻しは入るのか?
2015 年夏の暴落はあるのか?
 → 「チャイナショック」と言われたが・・・
 → 結局はどの市場にお金が流れるかが問題
 → 金利上昇はリスク
悪夢は再現されるか -日経平均(日足: 2015 年8-9
月)-
4
膠着状態だが -日経平均(日足)-
5
6
典型的な「天井」の形 -ナスダック指数(日足)-
そろそろ出尽くし - NYダウ(日足) -
7

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