1. Neotropical Disease Vectors and Reservoirs Face Habitat Expansion
Even with Aggressive Climate Change Mitigation
Margaret E. Coakley1, Matthew J. Miller1,2, Jose R. Loaiza2
1Department of Biology, Villanova University 2 INDICASAT-AIP Panama
Bradypus
variegatus
Leishmaniasis reservoir
Choloepus
hoffmanni
Leishmaniasis reservoir
Current
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
Zygodontomys
brevicauda
Hantavirus reservoir
Current vs. RCP
2.6 habitat gains
(red) & losses
(green)
Anopheles
punctimacula
Malaria vector
Methodology
MAXent (v3.3; Phillips et al. 2006) generates current and future habitat
suitability models based on species’ occurrence data, and current
climate conditions (e.g. temperature, precipitation, and seasonality).
Suitability is scored from 0 – 1. We projected suitable conditions for
one invertebrate disease vector & three vertebrate disease reservoirs
onto three sets of climate predictions for the year 2050. These three
scenarios (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs) range
from RCP2.6 (most aggressive control of CO2 emissions) to RCP8.5
(least mitigation of CO2 emissions). Each RCP was represented by
between 19 and 32 unique models (total models = 105). For each RCP,
we took the average of all models from that scenario, and recalculated
habitat suitability. To measure habitat gains and losses, we mapped
current occurrence points onto the the current suitability model for
each species and used the 10% lowest suitability score as a cutoff. We
measured habitat gains and losses relative to current predicted
suitable habitat using this cutoff for current and future average
suitability models for all three scenarios.
As part of a larger research project on the effect of climate change on emerging Neotropical zoonotic diseases, we analyzed the
geographic range of one out of seven Neotropical disease vectors and three out of six mammalian reservoirs within Panama and Costa
Rica. When extrapolating across four RCP climate change models for 2050, preliminary data suggest that, even under the most optimistic
climate change scenario, three of four species are predicted to undergo range expansion in Panama and Costa Rica, which will likely lead
to greater incidence of disease in this region and beyond. Prior studies have focused on tropical diseases expanding into non-tropical
areas, our work is the first to predict potential vector and reservoir expansion across a diversity of disease systems within the tropics.
http://www.scientistsagainstmalaria.net/vector/anopheles-atroparvus
http://jim-goldstein.photoshelter.com/image/I0000d1SW8gj3Tbk
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoffmann%27s_two-toed_sloth http://www.infectionlandscapes.org/2013/02/american-hemorrhagic-fevers.html
-­‐50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Species'
Geographic
Range
Percent
Area
Percent
Change
in
Species'
Modeled
Range
Among
Four
Climate
Change
Scenarios
Bradypus
variegatus
Choloepus
hoffmani
Zygodontymus
brevicauda
Current RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5