Spring 2010 Housing Market Trends

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Presented on March 31, 2010, Scott Sambucci examines real-time real estate market trends emerging in the US Housing Market. Includes a look a pricing, inventory, days-on-market, and seller psychology trends.

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  • First question: “How’s the market?” how do you answer?
  • Some levity in the market last Spring. Optimism and activity lead to higher
  • Price discovery is occurring. Sellers learning their lesson about over-pricing in 2008 and early 2009. Prices are settling into
  • 2008 – Inventory rose, prices fell. 2009 – Inventory fell, prices rose. 2010 - TBD
  • Spring 2010 Housing Market Trends

    1. 1. A look at the Spring 2010 Housing Market presented by Altos Research
    2. 2. Who’s with you today? <ul><li>Scott Sambucci, VP, Data Analytics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(415) 931 7942 - direct </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://blog.altosresearch.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Twitter: @AltosResearch </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Scott Macwhinnie, Sales Manager, Institutional & Corporate Markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(646) 435-1100- direct </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Grab your coffee… Lots to cover <ul><li>Where are new sellers entering the market relative to the existing supply? </li></ul><ul><li>Where is buy-side activity surprisingly strong and weak this Spring? </li></ul><ul><li>Which bubble markets are headed further south after their 2009 plateaus? </li></ul><ul><li>What effect is the homebuyer market tax credit having on prices? </li></ul><ul><li>Where is the S&P/Case-Shiller HPI headed in 2010? </li></ul>
    4. 4. Altos 10-City Composite (Jan 2010)
    5. 5. Altos 10-City Composite (March 2010)
    6. 6. Higher Activity at Lowest Price Segment
    7. 7. Market Action Index: Year-on-Year Values
    8. 8. Jan 2010: Sellers show the way
    9. 9. New Sellers Pricing Higher; Lower End Sales Activity
    10. 10. Price Reductions: Elevated but improving (Jan 2010)
    11. 11. March 2010: Is Seller Confidence Dwindling?
    12. 12. Days-on-Market Elevated vs 2008, 2009
    13. 13. Days-on-Market & Active Supply
    14. 14. Active Housing Supply & Pricing Effects
    15. 15. Borrower Psychology & Delinquencies: Market Conditions Matter <ul><li>Assumption: “If a borrower is deep underwater, he’ll walk away.” </li></ul><ul><li>Reality: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CA list prices rose 8% in 1H2009 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inventory dropped by 30% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New defaults fell 24% in Q4 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LTV is still lousy on these properties </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In a rapidly changing market, LTV impact weakens and FICO approaches irrelevancy. </li></ul>
    16. 16. New Delinquencies Peak at Market Trough
    17. 17. Active Price Reductions: Bubble Markets
    18. 18. Los Angeles MSA: Prices moving down
    19. 19. Hope springs eternal in Chicago…
    20. 20. Altos 10-City Composite vs. CSXR
    21. 21. Key Spring-Time Factors <ul><li>Individual states introducing Home buyer tax credits to pick up for Federal Program expiration </li></ul><ul><li>Active Inventory changes – effects on home prices with increasing market supply </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing RMBS liquidity & offerings to offset mortgage lending risk </li></ul>
    22. 22. And Finally… <ul><li>Altos Research RE Derivatives Report </li></ul><ul><li>Stats Datasheet for the fellow “data geeks” out there </li></ul><ul><li>Invitation to view of Data & Market Analytics Platform </li></ul><ul><li>Check out http://blog.altosresearch.com </li></ul>
    23. 23. Give us a call <ul><li>Scott Sambucci, VP, Data Analytics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(415) 931 7942 - direct </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://blog.altosresearch.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Twitter: @AltosResearch </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Scott Macwhinnie, Sales Manager, Institutional & Corporate Markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>646-435-1100- direct </li></ul></ul>

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