BUILD Planning for Adaption: How to Make a Difference in Complex Settings

1. Improving Health Through Innovative Collaborations
Planning for Adaptation:
How to make a difference in
complex settings
Dr. Jewlya Lynn
October 2015

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 Welcome
 Presenter Introduction(s)
 Session Objectives
• Understand why adaptive planning is important and when to use adaptive planning
approaches
• Learn about different tools that can be part of an adaptive planning process
• Learn about an online toolkit to help you apply the concepts of adaptive planning
 Session Outline
• What is adaptive planning?
• When should adaptive planning be used?
• Tools for adaptive planning
• Bringing it all together
Overview of Learning Session

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Spark Policy Institute’s Tools for Social Innovators
www.sparkpolicy.com/tools

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Adaptive Planning

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How do we usually do our planning?
Strategies Results
Assumptions
& Context

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What do we do when our strategies fail?
Strategies Results
Hmm, how do we improve our current
strategies, systems, partnerships, etc.?
Assumptions
& Context
Hmm, let’s reevaluate whether this is the right approach.
What’s happening in the environment? What did we learn from
experimenting with our last strategy? Should we shift our overall
strategy or even rethink our goals?

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What do we do when we use adaptive planning?
Strategies:
What are your
initial ideas for
how to cause
the change?
Results:
How do you want
to change the
world? What
smaller changes
are needed to get
there
Assumptions &
Context:
What
assumptions are
you making?
What can you
learn about the
context and from
past experience?

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What does our plan look like?
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise

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Why is adaptive planning the right approach in the
context of BUILD?
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise

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When to use adaptive planning

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There are different types of problems to solve…LevelofSocialComplexity
Level of Technological Complexity
Simple
Proble
ms
The right “recipe” is
essential but once
you’ve discovered it,
replication will get you
almost the same result
every time
Example: Baking a
Cake
Simple

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There are different types of problems to solve…LevelofSocialComplexity
Level of Technological Complexity
Simple
Problems
Socially
Complicated
Problems
The right “protocols and
formulas” are knowable and can
even be known, but agreement
the problem they will solve,
whether it should be solved,
who has the right to solve it, and
what solution should be used
are lacking.
Example: Water Conservation
Socially Complicated

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There are different types of problems to solve…
The right “protocols and
formulas” are needed, as are
high levels of expertise and
training – experience is built
over time to get to the right
result, which can be repeated
over time with the expectation
of success. Example: Sending a
Rocket to the Moon
Technically
Complicated
Technic
ally
LevelofSocialComplexity
Level of Technological Complexity
Technically
Complicated
Problems

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There is also a fourth type of problem…LevelofSocialComplexity
Level of Technological Complexity
Complex
Problems
There are no “right” recipes
or protocols that work in
every situation. There are
many outside factors that
influence the situation, and
every situation is unique.
Experience helps, but in no
way guarantees success
Example: Raising a Child
Complex

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When to use adaptive planning techniques?LevelofSocialComplexity
Level of Technological Complexity
Compl
ex
Proble
ms


?
?
WHEN: Dynamic conditions and
multiple factors require adaptation
along the way, so both the pathway
to change and the outcomes
themselves may change over time.
NOT WHEN: If solutions are
implemented correctly and
with quality, a pre-
determined set of activities
can be expected to produce
a predictable chain of
outcomes over time and in
different settings.

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Activity 2: Working through complexity
Technically
Complicate
d Problems
LevelofSocialComplexity
Level of Technological Complexity
Compl
ex
Proble
ms
Complex
Problems
Technically
Complicated
Problems
Socially
Complicated
Problems
Simple
Problems
What is technically
complicated in your
work? There is agreement
that it needs to be done,
but you don’t know how to
do it best.

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Activity 2: Working through complexity
Technically
Complicate
d Problems
LevelofSocialComplexity
Level of Technological Complexity
Compl
ex
Proble
ms
Complex
Problems
Technically
Complicated
Problems
Socially
Complicated
Problems
Simple
Problems
What is socially
complicated in your
work? There are
established best practices
on how to do it, but there
isn’t agreement on
whether to do it.

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Activity 2: Working through complexity
Technically
Complicate
d Problems
LevelofSocialComplexity
Level of Technological Complexity
Compl
ex
Proble
ms
Complex
Problems
Technically
Complicated
Problems
Socially
Complicated
Problems
Simple
Problems
What is complex in your
work? There is neither
agreement on whether to
do it, nor a clear set of
practices for how to do it?

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Tools for adaptive planning

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• Data, data, data, data
Tools for adaptive planning

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Data, data, data, data
Data about the
changes in the
problem
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise
Evaluation of
your strategies
as they deploy
Data about the
context and
problem

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• Strategic Roadmaps
• Before and After Action Reviews
• Forecasting Strategies (e.g. Scenario Mapping,
Simulations, Pre-Mortems, Delphi Method)
• Mapping Strategies (e.g., systems, network power,
and stakeholder mapping)
Specialized tools for adaptive planning

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Using the tools
Strategic
Roadmaps
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise
Before & After
Action Reviews
Forecasting &
Mapping

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An example: consumer health advocacy
General Operating
Program Grants
Rapid Response
Grants
Convenings
Learning
Evaluation
Policy
Targets,
Interim
Outcomes
Scenario
Mapping
Policy &
Advocacy
Framework
• Reassessing scenarios
• Twice yearly learning & strategy convenings
• Learning evaluation
• Twice yearly TCHF debriefs

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Focus on Results: Strategic
Roadmaps

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Using the tools
Strategic
Roadmaps
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise
Before & After
Action Reviews
Forecasting &
Mapping

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Using the tools

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Backwards planning
  

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Backwards planning, on steroids
  

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Key terms
Sphere of Control
Those things over which we
have control – we can
determine if they happen.
Activities
Deliverables
Outputs
Sphere of Influence
Those things which we can only
hope to influence – we can do our
best to cause them to happen, but we
can’t control it.
Outcomes
Preconditions
End-of-the Road

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Key terms
Sphere of
Control
Activities
Deliverables
Outputs
Sphere of
Influence
Outcomes
Preconditions
End-of-the Road
Outcome (Preconditions):
Anything we hope to influence as a result of our work. It can be short-
term (such as in the next year), intermediate term (such as two to five
years from now) or long-term (near the end of our road)
End of the Road:
The reason we are doing this work – the concrete and achievable vision
we are working toward.

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Strategic Roadmaps
End of
the Road
Pre-
conditions
to
achieving
the goal
Even
earlier pre-
conditions
What that
means for
what we
should be
doing today
Control
Influence

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Example: Farm to School
Statewide
Sustainable
Farm to
School
Adequate supply
Clarity on
regulatory
requirements
On farm food safety
School procurement
School food safety
Adequate school
facilities
Policy support of FTS
School staff willing/able
Assistance to
producers
Adequate
reimbursement
for producers

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Strategic Roadmaps
A
sustainable
system of
effective
pathways
to work &
education
for
opportunity
youth
Increased $
Public &
private sector
champions
Effective identification
Continuing education
options
Basic human needs
services
Formalized connections
between sectors
Internships, shadowing
opportunities
Youth
engagement
in the system

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Okay, so I have my roadmap, now what?
End of
the
Road
Pre-
conditions
to
achieving
the goal
Even
earlier pre-
conditions
What that
means for
what we
should be
doing
today
• Helps you keep the focus on the “why” of your work
– the change you’re trying to cause in the world.
• Helps you plan activities as you go and keep an eye
on the broader environment
• Helps you tell your story
• Helps you
plan short-
term,
strategic
actions

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Testing Assumptions:
Forecasting & Mapping
Techniques

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Using the tools
Strategic
Roadmaps
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise
Before & After
Action Reviews
Forecasting
& Mapping

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Scenario planning
How we plan for
the future
How we
experience the
future unfolding
How scenario
mapping helps

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Scenario planning
1 Identifies major drivers of the future
2 Envisions what variations might look like
3 Explores the implications of different futures
4 Prepares you to adapt as the future unfolds

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Example from an adaptive funding strategy

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Pre-Mortems

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It’s five years later and we failed spectacularly!
Things could not have gone worse!

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Example: An adaptive funding strategy
Failure
Limited or no
policy wins
Foundation
changes
course
Grantees
push back –
they don’t like
the
uncertainty
Why?
Misinterpreted the
environment – went
after the wrong wins
Turnover of key
leaders that support
the work
Failed to integrate into
current practice
Adapted too much or
only paid lip service to
adaptation
So What?
High quality monitoring
of environment
Ongoing re-education of
leaders
Be intentional about
institutionalizing
adaptive processes
Actively question level of
adaptation with internal
and external partners

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Example: An adaptive funding strategy

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Example: An adaptive funding strategy

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Systems map

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Systems map

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Network map

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Network map

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Activity 5: Let’s plan our adaptive planning
If you could decide for your local BUILD work…
• Which of these tools for forecasting and mapping
might be the most helpful in planning an adaptive
approach and why?

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Rethink, rethink, revise, revise

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Using the tools
Strategic
Roadmaps
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise
Before &
After Action
Reviews
Forecasting &
Mapping

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Using the tools
What is your intended
result (the precondition
you want to achieve)?
Given all that, what will
help us achieve the
intended result this time?
What are some of the
challenges you’ll face
along the way?
What have you learned
from similar situations,
past attempts, or outside
information?

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Bringing it all together

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How do we plan for adaptation?
Strategic
Roadmaps
(informed by
forecasting &
mapping)
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise
Before & After
Action Reviews
Pre-mortems and
other forecasting
& mapping

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How can adaptive planning tools and approaches help
your work maintain the focus on the BUILD pillars?
Strategies Results
Questions our
assumptions
Assumptions
& Context
Focus on our
results
Rethink, revise,
rethink, revise

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Being adaptive

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Activity 6: Adapting the supportive services…
What are three words to describe how technical
assistance/trainings/etc. are working for you
right now?
• What would you most like help with, from this webinar
or other learning opportunities you’ve been part of.

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Thank you!
5 minute Learning Session
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