Global Growth Opportunities To 2030 Mark Beliczky


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Global Growth Opportunities To 2030 Mark Beliczky

  1. 1. 1 st Annual Heidelberg College Business Conference: Strategies for Success; Planning, Marketing, Growing a Business <ul><li>Global Growth Opportunities: </li></ul><ul><li>2008 – 2030; Major Shifts Coming </li></ul><ul><li>Mark Beliczky </li></ul><ul><li>President, The Glenwood Group </li></ul><ul><li>Washington, DC </li></ul><ul><li>April 26, 2008 </li></ul>
  2. 2. Global Growth 0pportunitites: 2008 - 2030
  3. 3. Global Growth 0pportunitites: 2008 - 2030 <ul><li>While we may not be the direct beneficiaries of the next 22 years of globalization, our children, grandchildren and current/future Heidelberg graduates certainly will </li></ul>
  4. 4. Global Growth 0pportunitites: 2008 - 2030 <ul><li>Globalization : growing interconnectedness reflected in expanded flows of information, technology, capital, goods, services and people throughout the world </li></ul><ul><li>By 2020, globalization will take on much more of a non-western face </li></ul>
  5. 5. Global Growth 0pportunitites: 2008 - 2030 <ul><li>Reach of globalization has substantially broadened in last 20 years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese & Indian economic liberalization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collapse of the Soviet Union </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Worldwide information technology </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Global Brands Abound and Will Abound
  7. 7. Global Growth 0pportunitites: 2008 - 2030 <ul><li>Globalization or “economic interdependence” has expanded the effective reach of multinationals </li></ul><ul><li>Smaller and emerging growth firms have a new-found ability to market across borders and bring prior non-traded goods and services into the international arena </li></ul><ul><li>The anticipated increases in global consumer demand (particularly a growing middle class) will require those multinationals who want to compete to have to adapt their profiles and business practices to the demands of these cultures </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Identify and access new and relevant technologies , competencies and knowledge of lead markets emerging in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Effectiveness of speed with which companies can connect these globally scattered pieces of knowledge and use to create innovations, products, services and processes </li></ul><ul><li>Optimizing efficiency of global sales, distribution, marketing, and supply chain to leverage across global markets rapidly and cost efficiently </li></ul>
  9. 9. Serious About Winning in Today’s Global, High Mobility Knowledge Economy <ul><li>Expand the net you cast for new knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Prospect for interesting, new technologies and consumer trends beyond those locations dominated today </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipate hotbeds of new technologies and bell weather customers </li></ul><ul><li>Unlock the potential knowledge that lies under-utilized in local subsidiaries </li></ul>
  10. 10. Key Leadership Question for The Aspiring Metanational or Local Government <ul><li>What share of all new knowledge relevant to my company’s future am I capturing today? </li></ul><ul><li>If you did not like the answer, then it is time to engage the world in a different way </li></ul><ul><li>Government and local officials can forge a leadership role for their region in the global knowledge economy by addressing where their region/city fits in a global economy – how their region can thrive by developing a fertile environment for metanational companies </li></ul>
  11. 11. Three Key Globalization Trends <ul><li>Globalized area will represent 51% of the population and 74% of GNI </li></ul><ul><li>Areas dominated by Islamism and Africa: 34% of the population and 3.5% of world GNI </li></ul><ul><li>Declining areas: European Union and South America: 14% of world population and 22% of GNI </li></ul>
  12. 12. Global Population by 2030 <ul><li>World population expected to reach 8.2 Bil from 6.5 in 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>10 most populated countries: India, China, EU/Balkans/Turkey, USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ethiopia </li></ul><ul><li>Most populated cities: Tokyo, Japan; Delhi, India; Lagos, Nigeria; Mumbai, India; Dhaka, Bangladesh </li></ul><ul><li>Global population decline by 2100 </li></ul>
  13. 13. One of the Fastest Growing Population Segments
  14. 14. Aging Global Population <ul><li>World elderly population expected to more than double in next 30 years </li></ul><ul><li>US: 65+ will grow from 35 mil to 71 million by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Persons 65+ in developing countries projected to triple from 249 mil to 690 million </li></ul>
  15. 15. Economy by 2030: Regional Partitions <ul><li>US/Canada will maintain same share of GNI: 30% </li></ul><ul><li>China/Korea/Japan will see a significant increase from 19% to 30% </li></ul><ul><li>Islamic world and Africa will represent 3.5% of GNI and 34% of the world population </li></ul><ul><li>EU declines from 31% to 19% </li></ul>
  16. 16. Major Economic Powers by 2030 52% Population 55% Population 84% GNI 82% GNI Brazil Netherlands Australia Australia Mexico Brazil Spain Korea Italy India Canada Mexico Russia Spain France Canada Korea Italy Germany France UK UK India China Japan Germany China Japan USA USA 2030 2004
  17. 17. Largest Economic Gains <ul><li>China will have the largest economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>50% larger than US </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2X India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Germany, Brazil, Russia, UK and France not even 1/10 th of China </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Economic gains in the next 20 years </li></ul><ul><ul><li>India 270% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China 240% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indonesia 200% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Global trade will rise from $13.6 Bil today to $50.5 Bil in 2030 </li></ul>
  18. 18. Global Per Capita Income Trends by 2030 <ul><li>Low: $825 </li></ul><ul><li>Low Middle: $826 - $3,255 </li></ul><ul><li>Upper Middle: $3,256 - $10,065 </li></ul><ul><li>High: $10,066 & more </li></ul><ul><li>Hyper Rich: $30,000+ (USA) </li></ul><ul><li>High and upper middle income groups will represent 61% of world population compared to 25% in 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Greater middle class will present a “consumption explosion” and will boost the world economy (China, India & Indonesia) </li></ul>
  19. 19. Growing Middle Class… <ul><li>Emergence of well educated workforce and low cost compared to wages in the US </li></ul><ul><li>Blue and white collar workers in rich countries will endure severe competition in their wages and could be downgraded </li></ul>
  20. 20. US Business Talent Made Need to Look Cross Borders
  21. 21. Lower Middle and Low Income Good News/Bad News <ul><li>Percentage of poor (lower middle and low income) will decrease from 75% to 39% (Southeast Asia and Africa) </li></ul><ul><li>Sub-Saharan African poverty will be CATOSROSPHIC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GNI per capita was $355 in 2004 and is expected to decline to $290 or 18% worse </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. NGOs Aligned and Aware?
  23. 23. Global Income Inequalities on the Rise… <ul><li>Hyper rich ($30,000+) were 60X higher than the average low income of $500 in 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>By 2030, the hyper rich will be 140X higher than the average low income </li></ul><ul><li>As they say in London, “mind the gap” </li></ul>
  24. 24. Expansion of Global Consumption Function <ul><li>Between now and 2015, more than 1 billion new consumers will enter the global market </li></ul><ul><li>Spending in emerging markets alone will increase almost $6 Trillion </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in global consumer spending represents nearly all of the spending in Western Europe </li></ul>
  25. 25. Expected Advances in Knowledge <ul><li>Computers continue to follow a curve of exponential growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Components embedded in the environment and materials such as clothing and eye glasses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Images written directly on human retinas </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Nanotechnology and Biotechnology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>direct computing to the brain and organ replacement </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Genetics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>prevention of diseases and improvements in prosthesis </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. Expected Advances in Knowledge Cont… <ul><li>New Energy sources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Clean energy investment to top $7 Trillion by 2030 (wind turbines, solar panels, and biomass generators) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Senior Services/Care </li></ul><ul><li>Space Exploration </li></ul><ul><li>Weaponry: non-lethal microwaves </li></ul>
  27. 27. Oil, Oil, Oil……. <ul><li>1960’s, The Club of Rome Stated, “most of the natural resources were rapidly exhausted” </li></ul><ul><li>Current CIA Survey: “…recent estimates indicate that 80% of the world’s available oil still remains in the ground as does 95% of the world’s natural gas” </li></ul><ul><li>Expect a DECREASE in oil prices by 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Natural gas usage will increase more rapidly than any other energy source </li></ul><ul><li>Present high oil prices could be followed by a price collapse </li></ul><ul><li>Fusion reactors after 2030 </li></ul>
  28. 28. Global Growth Opportunities: 2008 – 2030; Major Shifts Coming <ul><li>Fewer barriers to entry for global-minded businesses </li></ul><ul><li>Growing elderly population </li></ul><ul><li>China, India and Indonesia </li></ul><ul><li>Middle class consumption explosion </li></ul><ul><li>Sub-Saharan economic catastrophe </li></ul><ul><li>Hyper rich – poor gap widens </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge economy continues to drive globalization </li></ul>
  29. 29. References and Links <ul><li>CIA “The World Fact Book” </li></ul><ul><li>CIA Global Trends 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>36 th Dilenschneider Group Trend/Forecasting Report </li></ul><ul><li>The Millennium Project </li></ul><ul><li>The George Washington University Center for Study of Globalization </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>