P4I_Capacity Building Workshop 4_Deep Dive into TCFD_v1.0.pdf

Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
Wednesday, 18 January 2023
Deep-dive into TCFD – climate risk
management & scenario analysis

Disclaimer
This publication has been funded by the Australian Government through the
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Any third-party views or
recommendations included in this publication do not necessarily reflect the
views of the Australian Government or indicate its commitment to a particular
course of action. The Australian Government accepts no responsibility or
liability for any damage, loss or expense incurred as a result of the reliance on
information contained in this publication.
1

Our team today
2
Gilles Pascual
Partner, Power & Utilities, EY Singapore
Strategy and Transactions
Tiffany Rimba
Manager, EY Singapore
Sheena Narula
Manager, EY Singapore
Russell Marsh
Associate Partner, EY Singapore
Nabila Sekartanti
Manager, EY Indonesia
Climate Change and Sustainability
Services
Ika Merdekawati
Senior Manager, EY Indonesia
Climate Change and Sustainability
Services
Arina Kok
Partner, EY Malaysia
Climate Change and Sustainability Services

3
What’s on for today?
Date: 18 January 2023 Time:9:00-12:00pm, 3.0 hours Venue: Pusdiklat PLN Slipi
Topic Sub-topic Speaker (Language) Duration
Introductions and opening Gilles, Partner (English) 5 mins
Recap of previous session
Introduction to TCFD
Benefits of implementing TCFD
Core elements of the TCFD recommendations
Russell, Associate
Partner (English)
5 mins
Setting the direction and
framework
Risk governance: Design and implementation
Nabila, Manager
(Bahasa)
15 mins
Risk management
Risk management framework
Recap of TCFD recommendation on risk management
Arina, Partner (English)
EYID team to moderate
the breakout sessions
105 mins
Short break 10 mins
Scenario analysis
Overview of the process of climate scenario analysis
Types of climate-related risks, risk exposure and materiality
assessment
Scenario identification, components and development
Scenario assessment - assessing the financial impact
Arina, Partner (English) 30 mins
Q&A Session
Oktarico Pradana
(Bahasa)
10 mins

Contents
Section Learning objectives
1. Setting the direction and framework Design and implement organisational approach to manage climate risks
2. Risk management
Understand how to integrate climate risk into existing risk management
framework and strategies to address climate risk
Understand the TCFD recommendations on risk management
3. Scenario analysis
Understand the process of conducting risk assessment of financial and
non-financial risks to identify, measure, monitor and mitigate climate risk

6
Question time
How would you describe your understanding of the TCFD recommendations?
Please use the polling/Whiteboard/Menti to give your
answer

7
Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)
Source: TCFD website
The Challenge
 There is no standardised approach to disclose climate-related financial
information.
 Investors, lenders and insurers are not able to evaluate which companies will
survive or thrive as the climate changes, and as decarbonisation regulations,
new technologies and behavioral change emerge.
What is the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures?
 The Financial Stability Board (FSB) developed TCFD with the goal to
drive more informed investment, credit and insurance
underwriting decisions and increase stakeholder understanding
of climate-related risks.
 The TCFD seeks to develop recommendations for voluntary
climate-related financial disclosures that are consistent,
comparable, reliable, clear, and efficient, and provide decision-useful
information to lenders, insurers and investors.
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members
chosen by the FSB, including
both users and preparers of
disclosures from across the
G20 constituency covering a
range of economic sectors
and financial markets
Help firms to:
Chaired by
Michael Bloomberg
TCFD’s Mission
• The TCFD considers the physical and transition risks associated
with climate change in developing recommendations and what
constitutes effective financial disclosures across industries.
• As companies and investors greater understand the financial
implications of climate change, investments would be channeled
into sustainability solutions, opportunities and business models.
 Understand what
financial markets want
from climate disclosure
 Align their disclosures
with investors’ needs

8
Question time
Do you think that aligning with TCFD recommendations would improve your
company disclosure to your investors and other stakeholders? Is it necessary?
answer

9
Question time
What are the benefits of aligning with TCFD for PLN?
answer

10
Benefits of implementing the TCFD recommendations
Source: TCFD Website
Better access to capital by increasing investors
and lenders’ confidence that the company’s
climate-related risks are appropriately assessed
and managed
Increased awareness and understanding of
climate-related risks and opportunities within the
company resulting in better risk management and
more informed strategic planning
Reduces the number of climate-related
information requests received
Smarter, more efficient allocation of capital and
help smoothen the transition to a more sustainable,
low-carbon economy
Promotes an informed understanding of climate-
related risks and opportunities by investors and
others
Facilitates routine consideration of the effects of
climate change in business and investment
decisions

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Core elements of the TCFD recommendations
Source: TCFD, Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, June 2017
Disclose the organisation’s
governance around climate-
related risks and opportunities
Governance
a) Describe the board’s oversight of
climate-related risks and
opportunities
b) Describe the management’s role
in assessing and managing
opportunities
Recommended Disclosures
Disclose the actual and potential
impacts of climate-related risks
and opportunities on the
organisation’s businesses,
strategy and financial planning
where such information is material
Strategy
a) Describe the climate-related risks
and opportunities the organisation
has identified over the short,
medium and long term
b) Describe the impact of climate-
related risks and opportunities on
the organisation’s businesses,
strategy and financial planning
c) Describe the resilience of the
organisation’s strategy, taking into
consideration different climate-
related scenarios, including a 2°C
or lower scenario
Disclose how the organisation
identifies, assesses and manages
climate-related risks
Risk management
a) Describe the organisation’s
processes for identifying and
assessing climate-related risks
b) Describe the organisation’s
processes for managing climate-
related risks
c) Describe how processes for
identifying, assessing and
managing climate-related risks
are integrated into the
organisation’s overall risk
management
Disclose the metrics and targets
used to assess and manage
relevant climate-related risks and
opportunities where such
information is material
Metrics and targets
a) Describe the metrics used by the
organisation to assess climate-
related risks and opportunities in
line with its strategy and risk
management process
b) Describe Scope 1, Scope 2
and, if appropriate, Scope 3
greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and the related risks
c) Describe the targets used by
the organisation to manage
opportunities and performance
against targets

Risk governance: design and implementation
1. Setting the direction and framework
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 Design and implement organisational approach to manage climate risks

13
Question time
What is the current level of maturity of PLN’s governance approach in
managing climate-related risks?
answer

Organisational changes and transformation would be required as
companies seek to become effective managers of climate risks
Source: COSO, WBCSD and EY, Applying Enterprise Risk Management to Environmental, Social and Governance-related Risks, McKinsey, Banking Imperatives for
Managing Climate Risk
14
 Critical to assess resilience
 Identify important climate hazards and primary
risk drivers by industry to generate physical and
transition climate risk scenarios
 Quantify the impact by counterparty and in
aggregate on portfolio basis
Get up to speed on stress testing
Risk
management
Governance
Framework
Alignment
Stress
testing
Enablers
1
2
3
4
5
 Crucial for top management to set the tone
on climate risk governance and nominate a
leader responsible for climate risk
 Set up effective governance structure
covering assessment, monitoring to
reporting
 Embed climate considerations in risk
frameworks and capital-allocation
processes
 Introduce policies and procedures such as
negative screening, sector-specific policies
or impose emissions thresholds
Formulate climate risk governance
Tailor business and credit strategy
 Align climate risk exposure with risk appetite and the business strategy
 Inject climate risk considerations into all risk management processes, including capital allocation, portfolio monitoring and reporting
 Review and update risk processes periodically to capture latest risks and disruptions
Align risk processes
 Acquire technical skills required to manage
climate risk
 Develop strategic understanding of how
physical and transition risks may affect their
activities
 Budget for climate adaptation and mitigation
strategies including technology, data and
talent
Focus on enablers

Setting up climate governance on corporate boards
Source: (1) World Economic Forum (2019): How to Set Up Effective Climate Governance on Corporate Boards, (2) Climate Financial Risk Forum Guide 2020, Risk
Management Chapter
15
 Deliver a tailored training program to the board on climate risk and consider
using external experts where necessary
 Update board committee terms of reference to include climate risk
 Provide periodic regular updates to relevant board committee(s) on:
– The organisation’s progress in preparing for and implementing climate risk
management
– Risk reporting metrics
 The board to review and challenge:
– Undue or unexpected climate risk concentrations
– The organisation’s strategy/corporate plan, considering the climate risk profile,
through short (e.g., 3-5 years), medium (e.g., 10 years) and long term (e.g., 30
years) lenses
– Materiality assessments and scenario analysis by climate outcomes and time
horizons
– Emerging regulatory, reputational and legal obligation
Implementation steps2
Guiding
principles
Subject command
Climate
accountability
Board
structure
Incentivization
Materiality
assessment
Strategic
integration
Reporting and
disclosure
Exchange
Guiding principles for effective climate
governance on corporate boards1
1 2 3
4 5
6 7 8

Ensuring understanding, oversight and accountability for financial risks
arising from climate change at all levels
Source: (1) EY, Being business-minded about climate change: Ten ways to address climate-related risks and opportunities in 2020 and beyond, (2) Chartered Institute of
Internal Auditors, 2018, Governance of Three Lines of Defense, (3) Climate Financial Risk Forum Guide 2020, Risk Management Chapter
16
A potential indicator of the organisation’s quality of climate risk governance could be based on the extent to which climate risk management is integrated
effectively into established risk management.
External
audit
Regulators
Governing body/Audit committee
Senior management
Management
controls
Internal control
measures
Financial controller
Security
Risk management
Quality
Inspection
Compliance
Internal audit
1st line of defense 2nd line of defense 3rd line of defense
 Carry out initial climate risk assessment when
onboarding suppliers/consumers or during
periodic review of existing suppliers/consumers
 Engage with consumers to understand carbon
intensities and their business plans for mitigating
climate risk
 Understand, assess and consider uncertainties
and developments around timing and channels
of climate risk
 Set up and own central risk frameworks
 Develop the tools for identifying and assessing
climate risks
 Deliver climate risk training
 Develop scenarios and undertake stress testing
 Support first line activity to understand, assess
and consider uncertainties and developments
around timing and channels of climate risk
 Review control design and execution

Climate risk needs to be implemented across the full risk management
framework
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Climate Risk Framework
Products and Services (Illustrative)
Risk Analytics and Reporting
Scenario Analysis
Governance and Risk Identification
External Disclosures
Training and Communications
Data and Technology
Governance committees Risk appetite
Risk identification and material
risks
Electricity sales
System
operations
Distribution
Transmission
Generation
Metrics (KPIs/KRIs) Reporting
Physical risk
Transition risk Scenario design Forecasting and modeling Results, review and challenge
Financial disclosures Non-financial disclosures
Training Policy and regulation Culture and awareness
Internal data External data Process and controls
Lessons learned:
• Team. Integrating climate risk into an
organisation is a cross-functional,
transformational and business-driven
exercise that will require collaboration
with unique skillsets and perspectives.
• Strategy-driven. Risk appetite and
limits should be aligned to company
strategy and have sufficient monitoring
and controls.
• Data. Design with an end-state in mind
and develop a data strategy related to
the procurement, storage and
unification of environmental data for
financial and non-financial reporting.
• Learn. Ask a lot of questions and think
of climate risk as an ‘add-on’ existing
BAU capabilities

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Example from TCFD adopter
Eni, Italy
Source: Carbon neutrality by 2050, Eni
Eni’s ensures understanding, oversight and accountability for climate risks at all levels
Eni’s risk management process is part of the
Integrated Risk Management (IRM) Model
developed by Eni.
The aim of the IRM is to support the
management in their decision-making process
by strengthening awareness
of the risk profile and related mitigations

19
Orsted, Denmark (1/2)
Source: 2021 Sustainability Report, Orsted
Orsted provides a clear framework to ensure understanding, oversight and accountability for climate-related risks at all levels
Orsted’s Sustainability
Committee is appointed by the
executive committee and
oversees their Sustainability
Commitment
Other responsibilities include
approving the analysis of their
sustainability themes,
reviewing the company’s
sustainability strategy,
providing recommendations
for their sustainability
programs, and approving their
ESG data set.

20
Orsted, Denmark (2/2)
Source: 2021 Sustainability Report, Orsted
Orsted provides a clear framework to ensure understanding, oversight and accountability for climate-related risks at all levels

2.1 Risk management framework
2. Risk management
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 Understand how to integrate climate risk into existing risk management
framework and strategies to address climate risk

Embed climate-change risk deep into Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Source: EY, Being business-minded about climate change: Ten ways to address climate-related risks and opportunities in 2020 and beyond 22
1
Risk identification and
assessment
2
Risk taxonomies
3
Risk reporting
4
Risk mitigation
Ultimately, climate change must be built into the organisation’s risk management framework. This requires embedding it into
the risk management lifecycle:
 To identify risks, granular
analysis of customers and
clients by region and sector is
useful
 Bifurcating between physical
and transition risks makes the
analysis more precise and
actionable
 Understanding the direct
impacts of physical risks on
the organisation’s operations
and third parties is essential
 In order to capture climate risk
within existing processes and
standards, organisations will need
to re-evaluate their risk taxonomies
to determine whether climate risk is
material
 These granular components will
need to be examined across
portfolios to inform credit limits and
internal ratings to maintain prudent
risk management
 Develop and maintain a set of risk
metrics that capture their own and
the counterparty’s climate change
risks
 Be able to aggregate those metrics
to enable board and senior
management reporting and
oversight
 Risk reporting can be linked to
existing portfolios, concentration
and exposure threshold and limits
 Climate risk analysis needs to
support decision-making on how
to manage climate risks
 This may range from:
– Altering exposure to certain
sectors or region
– Pricing of new loans and
underwriting of investments
– Making decisions on how to
deploy capital

Risk identification and assessment
Source: Climate Risk Management for Financial Institutions, Actuaries Institute’s Climate Change Working Group, November 2016 23
 Management and stakeholders broadly identify exposure using risk statements
 Example of a risk statement: "we face a risk from increasing levels of extreme weather events damaging our
transmission and distribution lines"
 Based on the risk statement, assign a risk score equivalent to the likelihood of the risk multiplied by the impact
of the risk
 Exposures on physical and non-physical assets related to the companies need to be taken into account. Assets
which are owned by customers and funded by the companies should also be considered
 Non-physical assets include:
– Customer and staff safety
– Financial exposures such as market risk
– Responsible investment and corporate social responsibility
– Reputational risk and loss of shareholder value
– Reputational risk and loss of shareholder value
 Key stakeholders then form a collective view of the priority of the risk – a plan will be developed in response to
priority risk
 Non-priority risk can still be identified and monitored going forward
Exposures on physical and non-physical assets related to the companies need to be considered
Risk
assessment
Risk
identification

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Risks arising from climate change
Sources: 1TCFD, Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, June 2017; 2Bank Negara Malaysia, Climate Change and
Principle Based Taxonomy, 27 December 2019 and 3Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, Global trends in climate change litigation, 4 July 2019
 Physical risk is the threat to tangible
assets, which would in turn affect intangible
assets1
 It directly impacts assets, financials,
earnings or reputation due to the increased
frequency or severity of adverse climate-
related events2
Physical risk Transition risk
 Transitioning to a lower-carbon economy
may entail extensive policy, legal,
technology, and market changes to
address mitigation and adaptation
requirements related to climate change.1
 Depending on the nature, speed, and focus
of these changes, transition risks may pose
varying levels of financial and
reputational risk to organisations.1

Risk categorisation varies based on industry, business model and
regulations
Source: Climate Financial Risk Forum Guide 2020, Risk Management Chapter 25
Climate risks
Policy and legal
Transition risks
Physical risks
Technology
Market
Consumer
Acute
Chronic
Impact on cash flows
Impact on balance sheet
Impact on functioning of
organisation
- 3.3%
p.a. to 2050 in 20C Scenario
- 65.7%
cumulative impact to 2050
in 20C Scenario
Expected annual return impacts of
transition risks on energy sector

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Breakout session 1
1. Identify climate risks faced by PLN
2. Discuss the potential impacts of the climate risks to PLN
3. Possible metrics to evaluate the financial impact of climate-related risks
20 mins discussion, 15 mins presentation
You will now be assigned to a breakout group. In your group, you will need to:
Physical risk Transition risk
Breakout group A Breakout group B
OR

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TCFD climate-related risks and opportunities
Source: TCFD, Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures pg. 8, June 2017
Strategic planning
Risk management
Financial impact
Revenues
Expenditures
Physical risks
Acute
Chronic
Asset and liabilities
Capital and financing
Income statement
Cash flow
statement
Balance sheet
Transition risks
Policy and legal
Technology
Market
Reputation
Risks
1. Identify climate risks faced
by PLN
2. Discuss the potential impacts
of the climate risks to PLN
3. Possible metrics to evaluate
the financial impact of

Example of climate risks in the power and utilities sector (1/3)
Source: NGFS Call for Action Report 2019 28
Physical risks Generation Transmission/Sale to end-users
Chronic
 Higher air temperature, wind speeds and humidity
 Nuclear and thermal: Lowered generation efficiency or decreased integrated
gasification combined cycle (IGCC) system efficiency (converting coal to gas)
 Precipitation: reduced cable capacity or potential total
loss of supply locally (overhead lines, underground cables)
 Sea-level rise and storm surges could damage coastal
infrastructure
Acute
 Extreme events such as melting, floods
 Low temperature and cold outbreaks result in more demand for heating
(extreme demand surges)
 Higher air temperature (drought) increases the risk of
wildfires that damage distribution networks, potentially
leading end consumers to opt for Distributed Energy
Resources (DERs)

Transition risks Generation Transmission/Sale to end-users
Policy and legal
 Increased cost of compliance
 Reduced assets and inflated cost of capital
 Stranded assets caused by national or state carbon mitigation policy
 Removal of renewable energy supporting programs
Market
 Changes in supply and demand for generation
 Shift from fossil fuel-based generation to renewables reduces revenue and
market capitalisation to fossil-based generators
 Changes in investment strategies (divestment)
Technology
 Shift from large scale power generation to distributed power technologies
 Falling costs of wind, battery technology
 Delayed commercialisation of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS)
 Grid management challenges related to renewables
integration
 Electrification rate might overwhelm the distribution
network
Reputation  Increased shareholders’ pressure due to low quality climate disclosures
 Tainted corporate reputation due to increased CO2
emissions

Electric utilities can carefully assess climate-related risks and opportunities to inform decisions about future sustainability and
profitability..
 Electric utilities face significant transition risk from the disruptive impact of the policy
and markets shift to a low-carbon energy system.
 Oil, gas and coal extraction, as key suppliers to electric utilities face physical risks from
affected water supplies.
 Both transition risks and physical risks impact operating costs and asset valuation of
organisations engaged in energy activities.
 The regulatory and competitive landscape for electric utilities differs significantly
between jurisdictions, making assessment of climate-related risks very challenging.
 Organisations within the Energy Group require major financial investments in fixed
assets and supply chain management and have longer business strategy/capital
allocation planning horizons relative to many other sectors.
Electric utilities are particularly sensitive
to physical, policy, or technological
changes affecting:
Water
availability
Emissions
constraints
Fossil fuel
demand
Energy production
and usage

Possible metrics to evaluate the financial impact of climate-related risks
and opportunities for the power and utilities sector
Value driver exposed to climate change Example financial indicator
Revenues
 Demand
 Product mix and production capacity
 Market positioning and competition
 Operational continuity
 Revenue
 EBITDA
Expenditures
 Production costs
 Energy and other operating costs
 Fines and regulatory compliance
 R&D
 Resilience to supply chain disruption
 COGS
 Fixed costs
 Operating and other margins
Assets and Liabilities
 Fixed asset values and re-pricing
 Asset valuation and lifetimes
 R&D and innovation costs
 CAPEX requirements
 Return on investments
 Asset valuations and write offs
 Inventory loss
 Return on Equity (RoE) and Return on Investment
(RoI)
Capital and Financing
 Access to finance
 Trustworthiness and creditability
 Relations with staff, investors and stakeholders
 Legal environment
 Cost of capital
 Interest rates
 Long term debt
 Minority interest and retained equity

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CLP, Hong Kong
Source: 2022 Risk Management Report, CLP
CLP has embedded climate change into the organisation's risk management framework

33
CLP, Hong Kong (1/3)
CLP described its additional risk mitigation measures for their supply chain and power generation network
CLP adopts the same set of risk profiling criteria as
other material risks when assessing climate change.
Climate change risks are managed throughout the
Group according to CLP’s risk governance structure
and risk management process, with management
oversight and assurance provided to the Board

34
CLP highlights the materials risks connected with transition and physical risk drivers

35
CLP highlights the materials risks connected with transition and physical risk drivers

Types of strategies to address climate risk
Source: TCFD, Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures 36
Strategies to
address
climate risk
Mitigation
Resilience
Adaptation
Transfer
or hedge
Reducing exposure to risk
e.g., reducing the company’s own carbon
footprint
Reducing damage or cost after
exposure
e.g., encouraging all power and utilities
companies to buy property insurance to
prepare for severe weather impacts
Aligning companies' business plan
e.g., in order to withstand severe weather events that
have flow-on financial impacts, power and utilities
companies can consider to hold an additional capital
buffer
Transferring or hedging the
risk to third parties
Insurance is the common practice to
transfer risk.
e.g., insurance for renewable energy
solutions, to provide natural hedge to the
business growth

2.2 Recap of TCFD recommendation on risk management
2. Risk management
37
 Understand the TCFD recommendations on risk management

Recap of TCFD recommendation on risk management
38
Processes for identifying and assessing climate-related risks
Identifying types of risks and the impact on overall financial statement and other metrics
Integration of identifying, assessing and managing climate related risks
Resilience of strategy after considering different climate-related scenarios
Processes for managing climate-related risks
How risks can be quantified, assessed and scored using heatmaps, peer comparisons
and stress testing
Metrics
and
targets
Risk
management
Strategy
Governance

Organisation’s processes for identifying and assessing climate-related
risks
39
R(a)
Describe the organisation’s processes for identifying and assessing climate-related risks
Organisations should describe their risk management processes for identifying and assessing climate-related risks. An important aspect
of this description is how organisations determine the relative significance of climate-related risks in relation to other risks.
Organisations should describe whether they consider existing and emerging regulatory requirements related to climate change as well
as other relevant factors considered.
Organisations should also consider disclosing the following:
– Processes for assessing the potential size and scope of identified climate-related risks and
– Definitions of risk terminology used or references to existing risk classification frameworks used.
Source: TCFD, Final Report Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures

Methods to identify and assess climate-related risks
40
Baseline disclosures Advanced considerations
Description for risk management Description for risk management
 Description of internal taxonomy classification using recognised
framework to apply “brown to green” scale by business segment
 Description of general risk management function and level of integration
into business-as-usual capabilities (e.g., risk ID, risk taxonomy, risk
inventory, risk appetite / limits)
 Description of internal tools and technology and external vendors
 Reference to industry recognised frameworks for identifying risks and
explanation of why your firm selected them
 An overview of the company’s risk management processes via internal ratings reviews, scenario
analysis and client engagement
 Identifies climate-related credit, investment, market and operational risks and evaluates and
manages each risk category through the company’s Independent Risk Management (IRM)
function
Current disclosure practices of reporters:
Source: 1EY IIF UNEPFI, TCFD Report Playbook, 2020; 2Institute of International Finance: Climate-related Financial Disclosures: Examples of Leading Practices in TCFD
Reporting by Financial Firms, 2019; TCFD, Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, Status Report, 2021

Organisation’s processes for managing climate-related risks
41
R(b)
Describe the organisation’s processes for managing climate-related risks
Organisations should describe their processes for managing climate-related risks, including how they make decisions to mitigate,
transfer, accept or control those risks
In addition, organisations should describe their processes for prioritising climate-related risks, including how materiality
determinations are made within their organisations
Source: TCFD, Final Report Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures

Methods to manage and prioritise climate-related risks independently and
relative to other risks
42
Processes for managing risk Processes for managing risk
 Commitments to future state capabilities
 Carbon measurement methodology and process to evaluate
portfolio carbon and portfolio decarbonisation pathways
 Details of training and employee readiness planning and programs
 Discussion of the linkage between risk identification processes and the
creation of limits and any other methods used to control risk within the
portfolio
 Exposure ($ / %) and quantification of risk types by business segment
and jurisdiction
 Description of impacted risk management process and controls,
including a description of improvements planned / completed to enhance
capabilities and incorporate climate-change risk into existing risk
management framework
 Materiality matrix in the ESG report to describe the significance of climate risks to the
organisation relative to other ESG risks

Integrating the process for identifying, assessing and managing climate-
related risks into the organisation’s overall risk management
43
R(c)
Describe how processes for identifying, assessing and managing climate-related risks are integrated into the
organisation’s overall risk management
Organisations should describe how their processes for identifying, assessing and managing climate-related risks are integrated into
their overall risk management
Source: TCFD, Final Report Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures; TCFD, Status Report, 2021

How climate-related risks are managed and prioritised both independently
and relative to other risks
44
Integration into overall risk management Integration into overall risk management
 Policies that restrict from exposures in high-risk sectors, which is
in line with the 2° or below scenario
 Environmental risk assessments conducted for new transactions
 Commitments to supporting mitigation of physical and transition
risks
 Description of roles and responsibilities of different risk functions and
their role in how they manage risks (systems, processes, reporting)
 KPIs / KRIs by business segment
 Business-segment specific description of enhancements to existing
processes
 Improvements made to embed physical and transition risks into existing
risk management capabilities
 Description of additional risk mitigation measures (e.g., new exclusion
policies, updated risk appetite statements)
 Management of reputational risk through position statements on climate-
related issues, leveraging support of external stakeholders and NGOs
 Discuss the potential impact, likelihood, velocity of change and context of climate issues and describe
its mitigating actions and next steps
 Highlight the physical and transition risks and opportunities that climate change poses to corporations,
governments and households

45
Breakout session 2
Alignment with TCFD recommendations on risk management:
1. Describe the organisation’s processes for identifying and assessing climate-related risks
2. Describe the organisation’s processes for managing climate-related risks
3. Describe how processes for identifying, assessing, and managing climate-related risks are
integrated into the organisation’s overall risk management
You will now be assigned to a breakout group. In your group, you will need to:
TNB
Breakout Group A
OR OR
CLP
Breakout Group B
AGL
Breakout Group C

46
Summary of TCFD recommendations on risk management
 Organisations should describe their risk management processes for identifying and assessing climate-related risks. An
important aspect of this description is how organisations determine the relative significance of climate-related risks in
relation to other risks.
 Organisations should describe whether they consider existing and emerging regulatory requirements related to climate
change as well as other relevant factors considered.
 Organisations should also consider disclosing the following:
– Processes for assessing the potential size and scope of identified climate-related risks and
– Definitions of risk terminology used or references to existing risk classification frameworks used.
Describe the organisation’s
processes for identifying and
assessing climate-related risks
 Organisations should describe their processes for managing climate-related risks, including how they make decisions
to mitigate, transfer, accept or control those risks
 In addition, organisations should describe their processes for prioritising climate-related risks, including how
materiality determinations are made within their organisations
Describe the organisation’s
processes for managing
 Organisations should describe how their processes for identifying, assessing and managing climate-related risks are
integrated into their overall risk management
Describe how processes for
identifying, assessing and
managing climate-related risks
are integrated into the
organisation’s overall risk
management
Source: TCFD, Final Report Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures; TCFD, Status Report, 2021

How can PLN start aligning with TCFD recommendations on risk
management?
47
Embedding climate
risks across the
PLN risk
management
framework
Periodically
conduct exercise
to identify and
assess climate-
related risks that
can impact PLN’s
businesses
Put measures in
place to address the
climate risks
Periodic reporting on
status of climate
risks and measures
put in place
Periodic
monitoring and
control
Develop a data
strategy related to
the procurement,
storage and
unification of
environmental data
for financial and non-
financial reporting

48
Question time
When you begin to adopt TCFD recommendations, what are the main
challenges that you anticipate running into?
answer

3.1 Overview of the process of climate scenario analysis
50
 Understand the process of conducting risk assessment of financial and non-
financial risks to identify, measure, monitor and mitigate climate risk

51
Question time
What is your level of understanding of climate scenario analysis?
answer

What is scenario analysis?
Source: Climate Financial Risk Forum Guide 2020, Scenario Analysis Chapter 52
In a world of uncertainty, scenarios
are intended to explore alternatives
that may significantly alter the basis
for “business-as-usual” assumption
“
Task Force on Climate-related Financial
Disclosures
Description of scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is a strategic planning tool to help an
organisation understand how it might perform in different future
states
It is designed to embrace complexity and uncertainty,
allowing decision makers to evaluate the organisation’s
flexibility, resilience, or robustness across a range of potential
outcomes
Scenario analysis is not designed to produce rigid predictions
nor irrational futures, but is designed to consider possible
and plausible alternative futures
In the context of climate change, the TCFD recommends the
use of climate scenario analysis to help firms to explore the
potential range of climate-related outcomes and analyze the
impact of these alternative states of the world on the business
in a structured manner, as well as how the business may
respond in these circumstances

Climate scenario analysis process
Identify
potential
exposures to
climate-
related risks
Examine
transmission
channels
Identify
climate-
related risks
Conduct
exposure
analysis
1 2
3
Develop
suitable
climate-
related
scenarios
Socio-
economic
context
Techno-
logical
evolution
Climate
policy
landscape
Emission
and
temperature
pathways
4 5
6
7
Assess
the financial
impact
Define risk
measure
Choose
impact
assessment
tools
Assess
financial
impacts and
take action
8
9
10
Climate scenario analysis
process

54
Using scenario analysis data to restructure resilient business strategies
Source: FSB TCFD, PwC, 2017
Disclose
Any climate-related
scenarios considerations
with ‘major disruptions’
from business as usual
Evaluate
subsequent impacts on
accounting for assets and
on financial projections
TCFD recommends energy sector companies to
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Consider carbon-pricing assumptions,
including any internal carbon price applied,
and the potential impacts of climate-
related risks and opportunities, for
example:
 Research and development expenditures
 Adoption of new technology
 Costs of key inputs
Consider to include expected changes
to reserves through impacts of climate
risks, for example:
 Additional investments
 Restructuring
 Write-downs
 Impairment
Capital planning: Explain strategies to
lower carbon-, energy-, and/or water
intensive operations. Detail how capital
planning and allocation take the following
into account:
 GHG emissions
 Energy
 Water issues
Considerations

Analytical choices involved in scenario analysis
Source: TCFD website 55
Parameters/ Assumptions
Example parameters/ assumptions
involved in scenario analysis include:
 Discount rate to apply to discount
future value
 Carbon price: the rationale behind the
assumptions regarding how carbon
price(s) would develop over time (e.g.,
geographic scope of implementation)
 Energy demand and mix across
different sources of primary energy and
how they develop over time
 Macro-economic variables: what GDP
rate, employment rate and other
economic variables are used
Examples of analytical choices involved in
scenario analysis include:
 Scenarios: selecting scenarios for
transition and physical impact analyses
 Quantitative vs. qualitative
 Timing of implications under scenarios
(e.g., on a decadal level)
 Scope of application, whether applied
throughout the whole value chain or on
specific business units
Examples of business impact/ effects
involved in scenario analysis include:
 Earnings: impact on earnings and how
it is expressed (e.g., EBITDA,
dividends)
 Costs: implications on operating/
production cost and development
 Revenues: implications for revenue
from key products and services
 Capital allocation/ investments:
implications for CAPEX and other
investments by the organisation
Analytical Choices Business Impacts/ Effects

How TCFD addresses different organisations’ capacity to perform
scenario analysis
Source: TCFD website and 2021 Implementing Guidance 56
TCFD was developed with the understanding that companies have different
approaches to climate-related scenario analysis and different disclosure
capabilities.
Most organisations are expected to perform qualitative scenario
analyses and will provide more qualitative disclosures.
Development of guidance Qualitative disclosure
To address concerns about burden on smaller organisations, TCFD
established a threshold for organisations to consider conducting more robust
scenario analysis to assess the resilience of their strategies (organisations with
annual revenue greater than USD1 billion in the four non-financial groups).
Recommends organisations that may be more significantly affected by
transition risk and/or physical risk consider more in-depth, quantitative
disclosure around scenario analysis.
Organisations may use existing external scenarios or their own, in-house
modeling capabilities depending on their planning needs and resources.
Robust scenario analysis
In-depth consideration on
qualitative disclosure
May start with qualitative scenario narratives
or storylines to help management explore the
potential range of climate change implications
Can use quantitative information to
illustrate potential pathways and outcomes
Greater rigor and sophistication in the use
of data sets and quantitative models and
analysis
Gaining experience Advanced experience
Just starting

Overview of the process of climate scenario analysis
Source: TCFD, 2021 Implementing Guidance 57
 Organisation should consider discussing the implications of different policy assumptions, macro-economic trends, energy
pathways and technology assumptions used in publicly available climate-related scenarios to assess the resilience of their
strategies.
 For the climate-related scenarios used, consider providing information on the following factors to allow investors and others to
understand the procedure of gaining valuable insight from scenarios analysis:
Critical input parameters, assumptions and analytical
choices for the climate-related scenarios used, particularly
as they relate to key areas such as policy assumptions,
energy deployment pathways, technology pathways and
related timing assumptions
Potential qualitative or quantitative financial implications of
the climate-related scenarios, if any
Supplemental Guidance for Non-Financial Groups

58
Question time
What do you consider to be the key challenges in conducting
climate scenario analysis?
answer

3.2 Type of climate-related risks, risk exposure and materiality
assessment
59

Climate risks could affect the economy through a range of different
transmission channels
Source: NGFS Climate Scenario for Central Banks and Supervisors 60
Identify potential exposures to climate-related risks by examining both physical and transition transmission channels
Climate risks
Transition risks
 Policy and regulation
 Technology
development
 Consumer
preferences
Physical risks
 Chronic (e.g.,
temperature,
precipitation,
agricultural
productivity, sea
levels)
 Acute (e.g.,
heatwaves, floods,
cyclones and
wildfires)
Financial risks
Economic transmission channels
Micro
Affecting individual businesses and households
 Property damage and business disruption
from severe weather
 Stranded assets and new capital expenditure
due to transition
 Changing demand and costs
 Legal liability (from failure to act)
Businesses Households
 Loss of income due to disruptions
 Property damage (from severe weather)
or restrictions (from low-carbon policies)
increasing costs and affecting valuations
Macro
Aggregate impacts on the macroeconomy
 Capital depreciation and increased investment
 Shifts in prices (from structural changes, supply shocks)
 Productivity changes (from severe heat, diversion of investment to mitigation and
adaptation, higher risk aversion)
 Labor market frictions (from physical and transition risks)
 Socioeconomic changes (from changing consumption patterns, migration, conflict)
 Other impacts on international trade, government revenues, fiscal space, output, interest
rates and exchange rates
Credit risks
 Defaults by businesses and
households
 Collateral depreciation
Financial
system
contagion
Climate and economy feedback effects Economy and financial system feedback effects
Market risk
 Repricing of equities, fixed
income, commodities etc.
Underwriting risk
 Increased insured losses
 Increased insurance gap
Operational risk
 Supply chain disruption
 Forced facility closure
Liquidity risk
 Increased demand for liquidity
 Refinancing risk

61
How transition and physical risk channels could impact businesses now
and beyond
X
Source: Climate Financial Risk Forum Guide 2020, Scenario Analysis Chapter
Transmission
channels
Transition Physical
Direct As climate policies penalize fossil fuel production as well as the
production and use of emission-intensive goods and services,
organizations will face risks from:
 Stranded assets
 Negative movements in bonds and equity valuation
 Changes in cash flows
 Deterioration in the customer credit risk profile (in the affected
sector)
In contrast, climate policies will promote organizations involved in the
production of goods and services that assist in reducing emissions.
Corporate balance sheets will be impacted by acute physical
events e.g., precipitation, flood, or wildfire; or by chronic physical
effects, e.g., flood risk due to sea level rise.
The direct economic impact could be:
 Loss of output
 Costs of repair
Indirect Climate policies will also have broader, indirect consequences
by:
 Changing the prices of a broad basket of goods and services
 Affecting aggregate patterns of demand and supply
 Long-term chronic changes in climate patterns (e.g., sea level
and mean temperature rises) as well as the broader impact of
extreme events will impact aggregate demand and output.
 These broader economic costs may arise from spillovers, such
as disruption to a supply chain or support and adaptation costs
borne by the sovereign, which would then impact inflation,
interest rates and long-term productivity.
Examine both physical and transition transmission channels and identify potential exposures to climate-related risks

How actions in one sector may have implications in another
Source: (1) Inevitable Policy Response, UN PRI (2020), (2) NGFS Climate Scenario for Central Banks and Supervisors
62
Transition
risks1
Carbon pricing
Energy Industry and manufacturing
Shift to low-carbon energy
Internal
combustion
vehicle sales
ban
Financial Services2
Reduced oil demand
Increased solar panel
manufacturing
Collaterals depreciation
Forced facility closure
Refinancing
Industry
decarbonisation
Increased electric vehicle
manufacturing
Possible coal-phase out
Changes in commodities
prices
Investment opportunities
Use of carbon capture and
storage technology
storage technology

Complementary approaches that organisations can take to start
identifying climate-related financial risks
Source: (1) Climate Financial Risk Forum Guide 2020, Scenario Analysis Chapter, (2) GARP GRI, Second Annual Global Survey of Climate Risk Management at Financial
Firms
63
Identify climate-related financial risks and opportunities
Start from the business profile and risk register of organisations and
questions such as which business areas or risks are vulnerable to
the physical effects of climate change or the transition to a low-
carbon economy?1
Start with a future climate scenario and consider how macroeconomic
variables (such as gross domestic product (“GDP”) and unemployment)
used in existing financial risk assessments could be affected.1
Aspects of business reviewed for climate risks and opportunities2
0 20 40 60 80 100
Other
Financial planning
Business targets
Operations
Strategy
Risk management
Physical and transition risk – Potential impact2
0 20 40 60 80 100
Banks
Non banks
Transition risk Physical risk Equal importance
Number of scenarios used, per firm2
Commonly used scenarios2
IPCC IEA SDS NGFS
Sets out an ambitious and
pragmatic vision of how the
global energy sector can evolve
in order to achieve these critical
energy-related Sustainable
Development Goals (“SDGs”) .
Network for Greening the
Financial System (NGFS)
scenarios were made available
in June 2020 and these will be
leveraged for Bank of England
2021 biennial exploratory
scenario.
Public scenarios from the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Scenarios start
from projections of global
greenhouse gas emissions to
derive climate and
socioeconomic projections. Data
includes atmospheric
composition, land use, sea level,
among others.
storage technology

64
Drax Group, United Kingdom
Source: 2021 Annual Report, Drax Group
Drax identified potential exposures to climate-related risks under different scenarios
Drax identified and assessed the
potential impacts of transition
risks in different scenarios (1.5-
degree scenarios and existing
global scenario)

3.3 Scenario identification, components and development
65

Components of the climate scenarios are interdependent and form
feedback loops
Climate
scenario
feedback
loop
The socioeconomic context lays out the
scenario backdrop, defining the economy’s tolerance
for climate change.
The climate policy
landscape is
represented by policy
ambition, which is in large
part influenced by
socioeconomic
challenges.
Technological evolution influences the
economy’s ability to effect and cope with transition.
Policy has an important role in facilitating technological
evolution and diffusion.
The emission pathways
represent trajectories of GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere.
These concentrations result from
the interaction of the three
previous factors and influence the
scale and nature of physical
climate impacts. Different
pathways reinforce or abate the
socioeconomic challenges.
Organisations may
choose to analyze
only one of these
components or may
decide that analysis
should cover several
of these components.
This would depend
on:
 Context of business
decision
 Type of exposures
 Materiality of
exposures
Identify feedback loops and interdependencies between the components of climate scenarios

Business decisions where scenario analysis could be appropriate and the
likely associated time horizons
Source: (1) Climate Financial Risk Forum Guide 2020, Scenario Analysis Chapter, (2) GARP GRI, (2020) Second Annual Global Survey of Climate Risk Management at
Financial Firms 67
Motivation to undertake climate change analysis1 Time horizon
Disclosure: TCFD-related Long
Disclosure: public reporting (e.g., Shareholders) Medium, long
Disclosure: public policy advocacy Long
Business decision: underwriting and pricing Short
Business decision: capital Short
Business decision: outwards risk transfer (e.g.,
reinsurance purchase)
Short
Business decision: product development Medium, long
Business decision: business plan Medium
Business decision: risk management, including risk
appetite setting
Medium, long
 Short term: 1 to 5 years, which is the period during which boards typically operate to develop
risk appetite, strategy and business plans
 Medium term: 5 to 10 years, which is the period that the viability of new products would need
to be tested against
 Long term: 10 years or more
Time horizons for scenarios2
Most common scenario horizons are
“1 to 5 years” and “10 to 30 years” that allow
organisation to understand both short- and long-
term impacts.
25
18
30
14
1-5 years 5-10 years 10-30 years >30 years

Scenario analysis - core climate scenario approaches
68
Robust scenarios to accommodate
multiple scenarios and applicability
to various sectors
Determine availability of scenarios in different dimensions:
 Physical risk and transitional risk: Assess whether the scenarios cover both types of risk and their level of interaction
 Assessment of different scenarios: Use plausible scenarios, including a 2°C scenario and a no-policy scenario
 Outcome granularity: Assess applicability of scenario outcomes by sector, geography, etc.
Option 1: Public Scenarios Option 2: Internal Scenarios Option 3: Vendor Scenarios
Developed by scientific community and
NGOs to assess climate change from
different perspectives, e.g. CD-Links, EIA
In-house development to obtain risk factors
associated to specific sectors and climate
metrics
 Credibility, low cost, transparency
 Low granularity of sectors or flexibility
 Customization to organisation
 Complex development of assumptions
 Detailed outputs and
visualization tools
 Low standardization, vendor costs
Most climate scenarios have been developed by government agencies and academics. Some vendors have developed their own
scenarios, whereas others consolidate available scenarios and data to develop modeling and reporting capabilities. Below are
some examples:
 NGFS: Scenarios were made available in June 2020 and these will be leveraged for the Bank of England 2021 biennial
exploratory scenario
 IPCC: Public scenarios from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Scenarios start from projections of global
greenhouse gas emissions to derive climate and socioeconomic projections. Data includes atmospheric composition, land use,
sea level, among others
 IEA: The International Energy Agency provides scenario data for different energy sources on a geographical granular level.
Scenario
data
Scenario
sources
Scenario
examples

Scenario analysis – to build or to buy?
69
Build
Buy
 White-box – The organisation owns the methodology and
models and perpetual license
 Better for knowledge transfer to the organisation‘s team
 Potentially better to deal with specific sector needs and low
data environments
 Industrial-strength model with full range of features from
day 1
 Help line support, version update (incl. scenario updates)
 Requires less internal resources for modeling and
maintenance
1
2
 Limited ongoing external support as fully owned
 Initial coverage likely smaller / more focused
 Less out-of-the-box features for outputs
 Not automated data feeds
 Recurring cost for data-as-a-service subscription
 Less room for real-time adjustment of assumptions and
parameters, black box models
Each organisation faces a basic ‘build or buy’ choice for climate risk modeling
Advantages Disadvantages

70
AGL, Australia
Source: Pathways to 2050, AGL
AGL built their own white-box for climate risk modeling
AGL owns the methodology behind
their climate risk modeling, which is
better for dealing with the needs for the
energy sector
The company disclosed the critical
input parameters for their scenario
narratives

71
Xcel Energy, United States
Source: 2022 Energy Gas Business GHG Reduction Scenarios, Xcel
Xcel Energy engaged an external vendor to develop its climate scenarios
Xcel Energy engaged E3 to develop its climate scenarios that are consistent with Xcel Energy’s Net Zero Vision; 25%
reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050

3.4 Scenario assessment – assessing the financial impact
72

Approaches for climate scenario assessment
Transition
channel
Risk identification
Macro-economic impact assessment tools
Physical
channel
Impact distribution by country, sector, asset class,
etc.
Credit risk ratings, expected losses, market
valuation, interest rate margins etc.
Risk identification
Impact of decarbonisation and physical events on
individual companies or specific assets
Asset or company specific impact assessment
tools
Transition
channel
Physical
channel
Scenario
 Socio-economic context
 Climate policy landscape
 Technological evolution
 Emission and temperature
pathways
Assess financial impacts and
take appropriate action
 Profit and loss statement
 Balance sheet
 Capital ratios
 Risk appetite framework
Risk measure

Organisations need to measure the impact of climate-related risk drivers
on their key financial metrics
Define risk measure to assess financial impact
Will need to assess how climate-related financial
risks can drive variations in their financial
earnings and portfolio valuations
Banks, P&U and other companies
Time horizons
 This depends on the business decision being analyzed and the duration of the
organisation’s exposures
 Shorter-time horizons, therefore, may allow organisations to construct alternative
transition scenarios which carry the same physical scenario
 Longer-term horizons may allow organisations to explore a richer combination of
both multiple transition and physical outcomes
Baseline
Organisations may choose to assess the impact of climate-related risks in one of
two ways:
 As a one-off shock to their current portfolio
 As the difference between a central projection and alternative pathways evolving
over time
Determine
the
approach for
impact
assessment

Organisations need to select appropriate impact assessment tools to
analyze the change in the chosen risk metrics for a given scenario
Choose impact assessment tools to assess financial impact
Macro-economic impact assessment tools Asset or company specific impact assessment tools
 Organisations regularly use these tools to assess the resiliency of
their business model to macroeconomic stresses in the financial
system over the capital planning horizon (~3-5 years)
 These models can be used to quantify the impact on market and
credit risk exposures of both instantaneous and prolonged
macroeconomic stresses in the financial system
 Input variables can typically include GDP, unemployment, interest
rates, currency rates and commodity prices, as well as assumptions
on asset devaluations (equity prices and credit spreads)
 Outputs of these approaches can typically include the P&L impact
from an instantaneous market shock, as well as changes in reserve
levels to account for increased losses on lending activities.
 Require more involved analysis and are resource-intensive, meaning they
are typically applicable for smaller portfolios
 Characterised by high granularity which considers company- and/or
geography-specific idiosyncrasies
 These tools are likely to vary more significantly from firm-to-firm, e.g.,
banks may use credit rating models, asset managers may use asset allocation
models and insurance companies will have models to project natural disasters.

76
Enel Group, Italy (1/2)
Source: Net-Zero Ambition 2020, Enel
Enel assessed the impact of their climate-related financial risks by conducting a company specific impact assessment

77
Enel Group, Italy (2/2)
Source: Net-zero Ambition 2020, Enel
Enel assessed the impact of their climate-related financial risks by conducting a company specific impact assessment
Enel estimated the yearly financial impact
to their EBITDA for variations in power
demand and renewable energy output.
Expected short term variations (until 2030)
range between 1-10%

78
Entergy, United States
Source: 2022 CDP Climate, Entergy
Entergy assessed the impact of their climate-related financial risks by conducting a company specific impact assessment
Entergy estimates that the financial impact caused by physical
risks over a 10-year period would be USD 5.37B

What does PLN need to consider to enable it to conduct climate scenario
analysis?
79
 Select scenarios
Climate
Scenario
Analysis
Scenarios to be used Assets that are exposed to physical climate risks
Financial impact due to physical climate risks
Adaptation plans in place to mitigate physical
climate risks
PLN’s baseline emissions and base year
Policies / regulations (existing and emerging) that will affect PLN’s
operations
Technologies that will help in reducing
PLN’s emissions
Market changes that will impact PLN’s
corporate and business strategy in
relation to climate
Mitigation measures (existing and future)
to address transition risk
Data collection for Scope 1, 2 and 3
GHG emissions

81
Summary
 The five components of governance, framework, alignment, stress testing and enablers to effectively manage climate risks
 How to set up climate governance on corporate boards
 Climate change must be built into the organisation’s risk management framework which requires embedding it into the risk management lifecycle
 Physical and transition risks identification
 TCFD recommendations on risk management and how can PLN start aligning with TCFD recommendations on risk management
 Process for climate scenario analysis and how TCFD addresses different organisations’ capacity to perform scenario analysis
 Core climate scenario approaches and how to assess financial impacts
In today training, we have learnt

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