The one-child policy in China has been in place for 30 years, but some are now calling for it to be scrapped as concerns grow about caring for an aging population. A recent report from a government think tank said China's fertility rate may be lower than officials estimate and that the policy should aim to increase the rate rather than suppress it further. While the government shows no plans to end the policy yet, debates have increased around more flexible implementation in some areas and calls for it to recognize families like Mr. Yang's who have had more than one child despite the restrictions.

1. Rethinking China's one-child policy
The child in time
Thirty years on, some want to scrap the repressive policy. The problem may be
to get people to have more—not fewer—babies
Aug 19th 2010 | BEIJING
IN MARCH, Yang Zhizhu was fired as a law lecturer in Beijing for having more than one
child. He knew the risk, but he badly wanted to father a boy. His story is not rare in a
country which for 30 years has told couples to settle for a single child and has used
draconian measures to limit births. But Mr Yang’s high-profile rebellion has won sympathy
even in the state-controlled press.
Rumblings of discontent over the one-child policy have been growing louder, stirred by
debate over whether it is needed now that the first children born under it face the prospect
of caring for an ever-increasing number of pensioners. A report last month by the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a leading government think-tank, said officials were
seriously overestimating the fertility rate (the number of children an average woman can
expect to have in her lifetime). Rather than suppress the rate, suggested the report, the
government should try to lift it.
When Mr Yang told of his plight on his blog, Beijing Times, a newspaper (loosely) controlled
by the Communist Party, picked up the story. It quoted Mr Yang saying his second child was
“a gift from God” and said he had ignored officials who wanted the fetus aborted. Southern
Weekend reported that the case had drawn more attention than any other since the launch
of the one-child policy. Century Weekly, a magazine, said scholars and the public agreed
that giving birth was a “basic right” that should not be subject to official diktat.

2. Southern Weekend had already taken up the cause in March, describing the hitherto little
publicised case of Yicheng county in the northern province of Shanxi. Yicheng, it said, had
been trying a two-child policy for 25 years. Despite its more relaxed regulations, the county
has a lower-than-average population growth rate. It also has a smaller-than-average
imbalance between boys and girls. Elsewhere a traditional preference for boys, combined
with the one-child policy, has resulted in widespread abortions of baby girls.
In many other areas, something more like a two-child policy has been emerging. Rural
residents are usually allowed to have a second if the first is a girl (typically after a gap of
four years). Ethnic minorities can have more. Many places have started allowing parents
who themselves lack siblings to have two offspring. A senior family-planning official said in
2007 that in effect the one-child policy applied to less than 40% of the population.
The government, however, shows little inclination to scrap it. September 25th will be the
30th anniversary of an “open letter” by the party that is often seen as marking the policy’s
launch. The letter spoke of having a one-child strategy for 30 or 40 years, encouraging
some to hope that it might end as early as this year. In February, however, an official said it
would remain unchanged at least until 2015.
At the end of May, rumours spread that plans to hold a national census in November could
in effect herald an amnesty for the likes of Mr Yang. A police directive said that, in
preparation for it, officials must give household registration papers to children born in
violation of family-planning directives. Normally such papers are handed to “black children”,
as offspring like Mr Yang’s are commonly known, only on payment of a huge fine (or fee, as
officials say). In cities this is often between five and ten times the local average annual
income.
But officials have been trying to quash the speculation, saying that “fees” will still be
imposed. Mr Yang, who refuses to pay, says he is lucky not to live in the countryside, where
officials routinely seize property from those who cannot afford the levy. He thinks they
would be too embarrassed to do so in his case. He lives on a campus run by the Communist
Youth League.

3. Some Chinese scholars argue that the government is at risk of overdoing things. They say
the country’s fertility rate may actually be much lower than the official figure of around 1.8.
This number has been used for more than a decade (and by international agencies, see
chart). It suggests a comfortable levelling off after a steep decline in the rate in the 1970s,
after mild childbirth restrictions were introduced.
The recent CASS report said the rate that would be expected if women had exactly as many
children as allowed would be 1.47. The government uses the higher figure believing that
many “black children” were missed by censuses. But the report disagreed, saying such
serious underreporting was unlikely. It said data showed that the 150m-strong migrant
population has a fertility rate of only 1.14 (similar to that of registered urban residents).
This belies the common image of migrants as big producers of unauthorised offspring.
Zhang Juwei of CASS believes the overall fertility rate is no higher than 1.6.
China cannot avoid its looming ageing problem, but these lower fertility estimates suggest
its impact could be greater than officials have bargained for. The CASS study calls for a
“prompt” change of policy to get the fertility rate up to around the “replacement level” of
2.1. The problem could be in persuading Chinese to have more children. In cities and
wealthier rural areas, surveys found that the number of babies women said they actually
wanted would produce a fertility rate well below 1.47. Mr Yang would like more but his wife
has had enough. His second baby turned out to be a girl. So he called her Ruonan, a
homonym for “like a boy”.
Asia
http://www.economist.com/node/16846390