China's One-Child Policy Isn't So Straightforward

1. China's One-Child Policy Isn't
So Straightforward
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2. Contd..
Last week China released new census data showing that Chinese
families favour sons over daughters. In 2014, according to the data,
Chinese women gave birth to 115.9 boys for every 100 girls. (The
natural human birth ratio is around 105 boys to every 100 girls.)
Skewed gender ratios of this sort date back to the early 1980s, and the
impact has been cumulative. China now has 33 million more men than
women, tens of millions of whom may never be able to find mates. The
Chinese government has recently attempted to alter this dynamic by
loosening its family planning policies. But new research suggests that
this well meaning policy shift could be counter-productive.
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3. Contd..
China's so-called one-child policy was initiated in the early 1980s
with the goal of slowing the country's population growth.
According to the prevailing narrative, it also had the effect of
skewing the country's gender balance. The policy is said to have
encouraged expectant parents who harboured a traditional
preference for sons over daughters to seek out ultrasounds and -if
a girl was expected -to pursue sex selective abortions. In that
sense, Chinese President Xi Jinping's loosening of the one child
policy in November 2013 might reasonably be expected to begin
correcting the country's gender imbalance.
But the demographic effects of the one-child policy were never so
straightforward. Except for its first few years, the policy allowed
parents to have second and third (and more) children, depending
on where in China they lived. A 2010 study revealed that 65% of
Chinese parents, mostly concentrated in rural areas, were subject
to “one-plus“ child policies, whereby a second, or even a third
child, was permitted. In certain provinces parents were allowed to
have a second child if their first child was a girl -thereby reducing
the incentive to abort a first baby for gender reasons.
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4. Contd..
Census data reveals, however, that Chinese families with multiple
children have made a disproportionate contribution in recent years to
the country's gender imbalance. According to an analysis of census data
from 2000, 51.5% of first children surveyed were boys -a nearly normal
sex ratio. But in those cases where a first child was a girl, 62% of the
children who followed were sons -a completely unnatural ratio. And, in
those cases where families had two daughters, the likelihood that a
third child would be a son was 70%.
The phenomenon isn't just confined to the 2000 census. A 2009 study
of Chinese census data taken in 2005 showed that second born children
had an average sex ratio of 146 boys to 100 girls (and, in nine provinces
it exceeded 160 to 100) while first children, again, had nearly normal
sex ratios. And as recently as 2011, the Chinese province of
Heilongjiang reported a sex ratio of 113.45 to 100 for second order
births and 147 to 100 for third order births. In all cases, it's second
children -not the first born children that one would assume would be
most affected by the one-child policy -that make the greatest
contribution to China's unbalanced sex ratio.
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5. Contd..
What explains this phenomenon? At least two studies have shown that families
allowed to have two-children maintain a preference for boys that co-exists with a
de sire for a male female mix (a male-male mix is less desirable). In other words: if
a couple desires a boy and a girl -as many Chinese apparently do -the least
emotionally draining ally and financially draining means of ensuring that outcome is
to allow nature to take its course with the first child, and sex select as necessary
with the second.
But if China's family planning policies didn't create the gender imbalance, what
did? Research suggests that China's liberalizing economic reforms of the 1970s and
1980s -reforms that were initiated around the same time as the one-child policy -
may be responsible, by providing Chinese women with the economic means to
travel and pay for ultrasounds (and sex selective abortions). According to a 2014
study , women in China with high school educations (and, presumably , more
earning power) were 7.4% more likely to have a boy as their second child than
women with no formal schooling while sex ratio imbalances were most pronounced
in counties with the greatest growth in economic output.
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