3. Engaging a Complex System
• Ethiopian annual budget is 8 billion
• It’s a complex system – top, bottom, and inbetween
• We need to work within their system
• Tap into the energy, not create it
• Understand processes ahead of time to
reduce friction
• We need to measure progress
4. The CCAFS Silver Platter
• Provide a detailed decision scenario
• What key decisions are made?
• Who makes them and when?
• What information did they used last year?
• Social Learning platform for collective analysis of
gaps and opportunities
• Provide access to decision makers and gov’t buyin
• Provide a M&E/Feedback loop (survey/crowd
sourcing)
5. Decisions and Information
Decisions
How much flexibility is there to change decisions?
• Politics
• Policy
• Resources
• Program silos
Information
How difficult is it to change information sources?
• Multitudes of information providers in Ethiopia
• History of using specific information for specific decisions
• Cost of changing information sources
• Capacity issues
• New information does not change process
6. Annual Plan and Budget Process in Ethiopia
Federal
State
Zone
Woreda
Kebele
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
7. Annual Plan and Budget Process in Ethiopia
Ask Decision-Makers
• What they want to do?
• What information they
used to decide?
• What are they
tradeoffs/risks?
Pre-Negotiation Surveys
Federal
State
Zone
Woreda
Kebele
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
8. Annual Plan and Budget Process in Ethiopia
Ask Decision-Makers
• What they want to do?
• What information they
used to decide?
• What are they
tradeoffs/risks?
Pre-Negotiation Surveys
Federal
State
Observe
•Who wins or
looses?
• What information
in used?
Zone
Woreda
Observe
Negotiations
Kebele
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
9. Survey Report and Near Future
• “Decision scenarios” for inputs and food
security assessments
• Forward by regional presidents
• Information gaps identified
• Social learning platform
• Relevant sections of the questionnaires made
available to social learning partners
10. Social Learning Partners (so far)
Local
MoA DRMFSS
MoA Inputs Directorate
National Met Agency
EIAR
Mekele University
Ethiopia ATA
Regional Presidents
300 Decision-Makers
International
USAID FEWSNET/LAP
WFP
AFSC & CIAT
Bioversity
CIMMYT
IFPRI
IRI
World Bank
UNDP
CARE
12. Replication
• Latin America Proposal - Bioversity
• UNDP/GEF/ADB – Interested as M&E
component of larger Cambodia PPCR/GEF
projects
• NEPAD Secretariat has ask for concept note to
replicate in 5 African countries (they’ll pitch to
donors)