1. MEMORANDUM
From: Ken Mullins, U.S. Forest Service Policy Analyst
To: Washington Department of Natural Resources
Date: December 15, 2015
Re: Benefit-Cost Analysis for Prescribed Fires
______________________________________________________________________________
Increased summer temperatures, lower soil moistures, and higher evaporation rates are expected
to increase the annual acreage burned by wildfires across eastern Washington by 50% by 2020
and by more than 300% by 2100.1
This requires the Washington Department of Natural
Resources (DNR) to shift their attention from wildfire suppression to wildfire prevention
techniques. To prevent damage from future wildfires, the U.S. Forest Service recommends that
the DNR use prescribed fires in combination with mechanical thinning.
Current Prevention Programs within the DNR
In January, the DNR requested $17 million for mechanical thinning of forests and $3 million for
replanting areas damaged by wildfires from the State Legislature for the next two years, but
received only $10 million. With limited funding, the DNR thinned 5,300 acres annually2
in the
last five years. State officials estimate that more than 4,200 square miles (about 2.8 million
acres)3
of forests in eastern Washington require thinning or planting of fire- and insect-resistant
species, mechanical thinning alone is not an efficient or cost-effective technique.
Prescribed Fires: Benefits
Due to strict limitations enforced by the DNR that prevent smoke from drifting into
communities, the Forest Service burned only 1.4% of the 9.3 million acres of federal lands in
Washington between 2001 and 2014.4
With these limitations, the DNR is losing the potential
benefits of prescribed fires, which include:
● Reducing wildfire risk;
● Reducing suppression costs;
● Minimizing the spread of insects and disease; and
● Increasing economic benefits.
Wildfire Risk
By removing underbrush, small shrubs,
heavy vegetation, downed trees, and
ladder fuels, prescribed fires reduce
wildfire risk for at least 3 years5
(Figure A). Preventing small
wildfires are particularly important
because the cost per acre of
wildfires decreases with size. Data
from the Okanogan National Forest
concluded that small wildfires (<10
acres) cost $5,400 per acre, mid-
sized fires (10 – 100 acres) cost
$3,200 per-acre, and large fires
(>100 acres) cost $500 per-acre.6

2. With the DNR spending $128 million over the last two years on wildfire suppression, preventing
small wildfires has the potential to save the DNR millions of dollars each year.
Suppression Costs
From 2010 to 2014, the DNR spent $200 million on wildfire suppression and only $31 million
on wildfire prevention.7
This unequal spending cut wildfire prevention programs, like the
watershed and vegetation-management program, by 24%. Since every dollar invested in
prescribed fire saves $1.53 in suppression costs,8
continuing fire suppression over prevention is
not a rational economic choice.9
With the State Legislature only granting one-third ($1.2 million)
of Commissioner of Public Lands Peter Goldmark’s request for initial attack10
to suppress small
wildfires quickly, prescribed fires represent a cost-effective alternative by preventing these small
fires from occurring.
Insects and Disease
Without prescribed fires, nearly 2.7
million acres of forests in eastern
Washington are overcrowded and
vulnerable to insects and disease,11
in
particular the mountain pine beetle
(Figure B). The fungi introduced by
the mountain pine beetles causes tree
decay and killed an estimated 2.8
million lodgepole, ponderosa, and
whitebark pine trees in 2014.12
Decaying pine trees are dangerous
because they are susceptible to
crown fires, which spread rapidly
and are difficult to control.
Prescribed fire minimizes this threat
by removing decaying trees and
providing room for the growth of
new, healthy trees.
Economic Benefits
Prescribed fires increase the economic benefits to the DNR by increasing educational
opportunities for hikers to learn about fire behavior and its impact on forest succession. For
example, in Colorado’s National Forests, hiking increased by 346%13
after conducting prescribed
fires. With the DNR managing over 1,100 miles of trails and outdoor recreation opportunities
across 2.2-million acres,14
educational programs centered around fire ecology are potential ways
at attract more visitors. With suppression costs continually rising, additional revenue reduces the
DNR’s dependence on state financial support and helps fund wildfire prevention programs.
Additional benefits of prescribed fire include:
● Improving habitat for threatened and endangered species;
● Removing unwanted species that threaten native species; and
● Providing forage for game.

3. Prescribed Fire: Costs
The costs associated with prescribed fires include:
● Logistics
● Air pollution;
● Cost per-acre; and
● Liability concerns.
Logistics
Logistic costs accrue from canceled fires, and
required personnel and equipment. Prescribed fires
require burn plans that consider temperature,
humidity, wind, fuel moisture, and conditions for
smoke dispersal. If these conditions are not
satisfied, the agency incurs the costs of helicopter
pilots (~$6,300/hour)15
and contracted workers
(~$17/hour)16
on canceled fires. For comparison,
Figure C17
displays the costs of personnel and
equipment needed for a prescribed fire in 1996 in Oklahoma.
Air Pollution
Prescribed fires release high concentrations of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, particulates, and
smoke into the atmosphere. In 2009, the Yakima Regional Clean Air Agency fined the Forest
Service $12,00018
for smoke from the Naches prescribed fire. They later rescinded this fine. The
Naches Fire also later served as a firebreak for the
Wild Rose Fire in 2012, saving 25 homes and
limiting the fire to 2,000 acres. Performed in ideal
weather conditions, prescribed fires also generate
less air pollution than wildfires. For example, the
Okanogan Complex Fire in August 2015
generated air pollution 20 times worse19
than the
Naches fire.
Cost Per Acre
Cost per Acre varies due to fuel type, size of area
burned, steepness of slope, location, and site
elevation. Figure D provides an estimation of cost
per-acre for four different environments from
2002. 20
On a per acre basis, prescribed fires are
less expensive than mechanical thinning. In 2015,
the average cost per acre in the Western U.S. for
prescribed fires ranged from $25 to $125, while
mechanical thinning costs ranged from $350 to
$425 per acre.21
With the DNR’s goal of thinning
40,000 to 50,000 acres per year,22
prescribed fires
are more cost-effective than mechanical thinning.

4. Liability Concerns
Liability concerns focus on damage caused by escaped fires and injuries. Federal agencies
complete between 4,000 and 5,000 prescribed fires annually, with 10% reported as “near misses”
or escapes.23
However, a “near miss” is not clearly defined and not all agencies are required to
report “near misses” or escapes. For example, the Cerro Grande Fire in 2000 was a prescribed
fire by the National Park Service intended to burn 900 acres. However, the fire escaped and
burned more than 48,000 acres, destroyed 235 homes, and totaled $1 billion in costs.24
Injuries occur during vehicle
accidents, improper tool use,
and from slips/trips.
Compared to wildfires and
mechanical thinning, injuries
from prescribed fires are less
frequent.25
Figure E
represents all firefighter
injuries in 2014.
Conclusion
In August 2015, three Forest
Service firefighters died
battling the Twisp River Fire.
This tragic accident
emphasizes the importance
of wildfire prevention techniques in reducing the occurrence and damage of catastrophic
wildfires. By lessening smoke limitations to allow for the use of prescribed fires, the DNR
reinforces its mission of ensuring environmental protection, public safety, and a rich quality of
life.26
Since wildfires are unpredictable, dangerous, and expensive, prescribed fires represent a
cost-effective and efficient technique in reducing the risk of wildfires in Washington.

5. 1
"Eastern Washington Forest Health: Hazards ..." 2014. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://file.dnr.wa.gov/publications/rp_fh_leg_report_2014.pdf>
2
"Dry forests have state fearing bad fire season | The Seattle ..." 2015. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/dry-forests-have-state-fearing-bad-fire-season/>
3
"2014 Annual Report-Department of Natural Resources - DNR." 15 Dec. 2015 <http://wa-
dnr.s3.amazonaws.com/publications/em_annualreport14.pdf>
4
"Fighting fire with fire: State policy hampers use of controlled ..." 2015. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/fighting-fire-with-fire-state-policy-hampers-use-of-controlled-
burns/>
5 "Analyzing Trade-Offs Between Fuels Management ..." 2012. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://www.researchgate.net/publication/227177192_Analyzing_Trade-
Offs_Between_Fuels_Management_Suppression_and_Damages_from_Wildfire>
6
"Wildland Fire Management Program Benefit-Cost Analysis." 15 Dec. 2015
<https://www.doi.gov/sites/doi.gov/files/migrated/ppa/upload/Wildland_fire_literature_review_060812FINAL.pdf>
7
Ibid.
8
Butry, DT, and DT Butry. "ABSTRACT - Repository - North Carolina State University." 2007.
<http://repository.lib.ncsu.edu/ir/bitstream/1840.16/3801/1/etd.pdf>
9
Snider, G. "Irrationality of Continued Fire Suppression : An Avoided ..." 2006.
<http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1172&context=barkbeetles>
10
"Not enough money for stopping wildfires early, lands ..." 2015. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://www.theolympian.com/news/local/politics-government/article26775331.html>
11
Region, PN. "Forest Health Highlights in Washington—2014 - DNR." 2015.
<http://www.dnr.wa.gov/publications/rp_fh_2014_forest_health_highlights.pdf>
12
Ibid.
13
Hesseln, H. "The Effects of Fire on Hiking Demand - USDA Forest Service." 2003.
<http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_p029/rmrs_p029_177_186.pdf>
14
"2014 Annual Report-Department of Natural Resources - DNR." 15 Dec. 2015 <http://wa-
dnr.s3.amazonaws.com/publications/em_annualreport14.pdf>
15
"A Taxpayer's Guide to Wildfire Suppression Costs." 2014. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://www.iawfonline.org/A%20TAXPAYERS%20GUIDE%20TO%20WILDFIRES.pdf>
16
Ibid.
17
"How Much Does it Cost to Burn?." 2012. 15 Dec. 2015 <http://www.noble.org/ag/wildlife/burn/>
18
Ibid.
19
Ibid.
20
The True Cost of Wildfire in the Western U.S." 2009. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://www.wflccenter.org/news_pdf/324_pdf.pdf>
21
FIRE, P. "Fire Management Today - USDA Forest Service." 2006. <http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/fmt/fmt_pdfs/FMT66-
1.pdf>
22
Ibid.
23
"Prescribed Fire Lessons Learned- Escaped ... - NWCG." 2008. 15 Dec. 2015 <http://training.nwcg.gov/pre-
courses/rx301/Rx_Fire_LL_Escapes_Review.pdf>
24
"Independent Review Board Report - Wildland Fire ..." 2005. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://www.fireleadership.gov/toolbox/staffride/downloads/lsr6/lsr6_Independent_Review_Team_Report_May_2000.
pdf>
25
"NFPA reports - Firefighter injuries in the United States." 2013. 15 Dec. 2015
<http://www.nfpa.org/research/reports-and-statistics/the-fire-service/fatalities-and-injuries/firefighter-injuries-in-the-
united-states>
26 "About the Washington Department of Natural Resources ..." 2015. 15 Dec. 2015 <http://www.dnr.wa.gov/about-
washington-department-natural-resources>

6. Bibliography
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Butry, David. “Estimating the Efficacy of Wildfire Management Using Propensity Scores” North
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Dether, Deirdre M. "Lessons Learned." (2008): Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center. 29 June
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