This document summarizes a research paper examining the economic and social impacts of doubling power supply and demand in Mwanza region, Tanzania by 2025. Key findings include: 1. Doubling power supply would increase the region's GDP by over 10% and improve social status by allowing more households to use appliances. 2. Leaving power supply static would reduce government revenue by around 10% over 10 years and deteriorate residents' living standards due to population growth. 3. Reliability of power is more important than quantity - unreliability currently reduces one factory's production and taxes by 13.3% annually.

1. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS
OF DOUBLING POWER DEMAND AND SUPPLY
IN MWANZA REGION BY 2025
“A research paper written as a part of competition among the students from the selected
universities, sponsored by the U.S. embassy under the project –POWERING AFRICA”.
By Fredy Peter and Kelvin Wagara
ST. AUGUSTINE UNIVERSITY OF TANZANIA-MWANZA
March, 2015

2. ABSTRACT
This study examined the economic and social impacts of doubling power supply and demand in
Mwanza region by 2025. Impacts on gross domestic product (GDP) and social status of the
region were examined through basic information supplied by, mainly, industrial technicians,
domestic power consumers and The Tanzania electric supply company (TANESCO).
The methods used in data collection were direct interview, questionnaire and literature reference.
Questionnaire was interviewer-guided while references were obtained from concerned
authorities.
The total power demand of the region is currently 45 MW of which 15.5 MW serve industrial
consumers within Mwanza city. The remaining power serves domestic consumers in the city and
other parts of the region. Doubling the total power demand implies increasing the current level to
about 90 MW. Economic impacts were found to be improvement in industrial sector and life
standards.
Mwanza region contributes about 7% of the national GDP from the agricultural, mining and
industrial activities within the region. Doubling available power would boost both regional and
national GDP but it should be noted that ensuring power reliability is the primary step towards
improving the income from power consumption.
On the other hand, social status would be improved in terms of individual life standards,
communication and entertainment, education quality and health services.
Finally, it was found that if the current power demand and supply scenario is left static, it would
be a great let down it terms of reduced regional per capita income (PCI) and deteriorated social
status.
We recommend that the vision 2025’s sections concerning energy and power be implemented as
planned so as to realize any significant economic and social expectations.

3. INTRODUCTION
Background to the study
Mwanza region in brief
Mwanza is one of the 30 administrative regions of the united republic of Tanzania, 26 in
Tanzania-mainland and 4 in Tanzania-isles. Mwanza is located in the northern part of Tanzania-
mainland on the shores of Lake Victoria, the largest in the continent. It is located between
latitudes 1⁰ 30’ and 3⁰ south of equator while longitudinally, it is between 31⁰ 45’ and 34⁰ 10’
east of Greenwich. Mwanza region is bordered by Geita, Shinyanga and Simiyu regions to the
west, south and east respectively. To the north is Lake Victoria. Current population estimates
show that Mwanza has a population of over 3.5 million of which about 30% is urbanized, with
Mwanza city having over 500,000 residents.
Mwanza region power overview
Being the most densely populated region in Tanzania excluding Dar es Salaam, Mwanza was
expected to have the largest number of power consumers but unexpectedly Mwanza socio-
economic profile, by Malocho W,N;1997 indicated that only 19% of the residents had access to
the national grid power putting Mwanza at third position after Dar es Salaam and Arusha. This
work was interested in finding out the causes of this situation. TANESCO pointed out that
current power demand of the region is about 45 MW including commercial and domestic
demand.
Problem statement
The Government of Tanzania (GoT) via TANESCO plans to improve the power availability and
reliability scenario by increasing access to national grid power, rural electrification and
improving the power system infrastructure. The research aimed at determining the percentage by
which the economic and social status would be affected if the current power demand and supply
were doubled and the impacts on GDP if the current power scenario is left static. We believe that
the answers to these problems would provide GoT with the awareness about the significance of
its policy.

4. Objectives
The general objective of this work was to address the power availability, reliability, supply and
demand scenario. On the other hand, specific objectives were as follows:
1. To create personal awareness on the current and previous power status in the region.
2. To investigate the extent to which the government benefits from power supply services.
3. To conclude on what should be done (as far as power demand and supply scenario is
concerned) in order to ensure the betterment of economic and social status within
Mwanza region.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Power demand and supply is a very crucial issue all over the world and in fact it, over years has
been a major concern in almost any country since it is the determinant of a country’s economic
and social status.
In Tanzania too, several attempts have been made to reveal the background of the issue. For
instance, a 2012 report by a UK based firm, Parsons Brinkerhoff pointed out that the national
demand by 2038 is expected to be 7000 MW. The report was however aimed at advising GoT to
go for alternative sources other than hydro-electricity. Such a study does not therefore give
significant clues about the impacts on economy and social status of the nation. Another 2012
report presented by Eng. Christian Matyelele Msyani named, Current energy status in Tanzania,
pointed that national power demand was about 950 MW with maximum daily energy
consumption of 16.9 GWh an annual growth of 10%-15% in national demand. The report
suggests that currently, demand is around 1200 MW. PCI of the region according to the 2014
report the prime minister’s office of GoT is over USD 1000. This study explored the potential
growth in GDP and PCI of the region by 2025 if the available power demand and supply is
doubled.
METHODOLOGY
We used three different approaches in collecting both primary and secondary data. We used
direct interviews to obtain and record data from TANESCO and industrial consumers since the

5. time was limited hence that was the best approach. We used a questionnaire to obtain
information from domestic power consumers. The respondents were only 40 thus the
questionnaire was very appropriate. Finally, written documents were used to obtain some
statistical information concerning Mwanza region.
The total number of participants in this piece of research was as follows: For domestic
consumers, 40 households randomly for investigation, with the head of the house chosen as the
respondent since he/she would be in the best position to have the most detailed information
concerning the house. After introduction, the objectives and significance of this work were
introduced. It should be known that these residential houses were all in the sub-urban parts of
Mwanza city with an assumption that sub-urban areas have intermediate properties, in between
urban and rural areas. Most respondents were willing to give all the required information while
few were a bit reluctant to give out some answers, doubting our intentions. This could be due to
insufficient education on these matters. This forced us to investigate more people so as to
compensate for the deviation from the intended number, 40. Finally, all the useful information
was obtained and is summarized in the next part.
The next group of participants was industrial consumers. Five industries, which are perceived to
be the largest power consumers in Mwanza region, were investigated. These are the largest
contributors to the TANESCO revenue from the region. Our respondents were electrical
technicians due to the nature of data required-technical data. We required clues on power
demand, average power factor (PF), monthly energy bill and average number of days of power
failure recorded per month. Only problem with industrial consumers was that all required a
stamped, signed and formal letter from dean of the faculty of engineering. This delayed the
process of data collection by about five days and it was a bit costing considering that we were
having other tasks at the campus.
In the case of domestic consumers, a simple questionnaire was used and is shown in appendix
section. Pens and note books were sufficient in the case of industrial consumers. Since the five
industries are scattered throughout Mwanza city, seven days were needed to accomplish the
process of physical data collection.

6. ANALYSIS
This is the summary of the information obtained from the five factories.
Factory
name
Peak
demand(KVA)
Average
demand(KVA)
Recorded days
of power failure
per month
Energy
payment per
month(USD)
Daily
production
(USD)
Nyakato
steel mills
1050 800 4 60000 10290
Nyanza
bottlers
820 640 4 48000 8230
Sayona
steel
750 610 4 45750 7850
Vicfish 620 457 6 34275 5880
Victoria
molders
460 350 6 23500 4100
* Based on a conversion rate of 1 USD = 1700/-.
A summary for domestic power utilization. The table indicates whether or not a given appliance
is applied.
Appliance Lamps Electric
Cookers
Iron
boxes
Refrigerators TV/
Radio
sets
Music
systems
Air
conditioners
Washers Other
Yes 40 8 26 18 40 34 2 1 3
No 0 32 14 22 0 6 38 39 37
*Yes means ‘applied’ while No means ‘not applied’.
*Other appliances refer to units such as mills and incubators.
FINDINGS
Considering the overall information obtained from domestic consumers, it was noted that of the
65 households investigated in the sub-urban areas, 25 households, equivalent to 38.45% lacked
access to national grid power. The remaining 61.55% had access but with varying and limited

7. applications. For instance, out of 40 households with connection to the national grid, only 8
households (20%) applied electric cookers, only 1 household (2.5%) applied an electric washer,
2 households (5%) had air conditioners while 18 households (45%) had refrigerators. On the
other hand, all the 40 households (100%) used electric lamps, 26 households (65%) had iron
boxes 34 households (85%) had music systems and 40 households (100%) had TV or radio
receivers for getting news and updates.
The reasons given out by the respondents concerning this trend of power application fell into two
categories;
1. 58% blamed the market prices of some useful appliances. Electric washers, refrigerators
and air conditioners were reported to be very expensive and thus unaffordable.
2. The remaining 42% blamed high power ratings of some electric appliances regarding the
current energy cost per unit for domestic consumers, 22 cents of USD per kWh.
3. Most households proved to be applying only necessary items such as electric lamps, TV
and radio sets, iron boxes and music systems.
In the case of industrial consumers, the information obtained from the interviews indicated
power demand for each of the five factories. In addition, these factories pay huge amounts of
money as tax to TRA and for the monthly energy consumption. Energy payment trend is
indicated in the table. Tax payment is as follows considering a single case of Nyakato steel mills,
the largest power consumer in Mwanza region, the amount paid as tax ranges between 92,437
USD and 129,442 USD. The peak value of tax was observed in 2011 when 12944 USD (220
Million Tsh.) was delivered to Tanzania revenue authority (TRA) as income tax (this is
according to a report by one, Mihambi John in April 2012). Noting that the factory pays about
60000 USD monthly as energy bill, the total amount collected by government authorities was
12,944 + 60,000*12 = 1,329,000 USD in 2011 alone.
The factory reported 4 days of power failure per month. There was no production during those
days. The total loss was thus 10,290 * 4 = 41, 160 USD per month. This equaled 493, 920 USD
per year and represented 13.33 % of the annual production. The tax payment was thus reduced
by over 10 %.

8. DISCUSSION
It was initially predicted that there would be a huge boost in the region’s GDP and social status if
the power supply in the region was doubled. However it is observed that doubling the power
supply would result in the increase in the regional GDP by over 10% if the days of power failure
are completely eliminated. The best option could be the stabilization of the power supplied to the
region and making it reliable rather than just doubling the current power supply.
Paying attention to the results obtained from domestic consumers, the social status would be
largely improved in terms of individual life standards since 42 % of the respondents blamed high
power ratings of some useful items as the sole let-down towards the use of such items. Increasing
the power supply implies a decrease in the cost of energy per kWh thus enabling the people to
improve their life standards by applying these sophisticated electrical appliances.
Generally, the outcomes of this research were slightly different from what was expected because
it was found that the greatest let-down in economic progress associated with power demand and
supply is due to unreliability of power and not just inadequacy.
CONCLUSION
To answer the research questions, these are the conclusions:
Firstly, if Mwanza region doubles it current power demand and supply scenario by 2025, the
GDP of the region will increase by over 10% while the social status in terms of life standard will
be considerably improved since about 42% more households will be able to apply more
sophisticated electrical appliances.
On the other hand, if the current power status is left static then government revenue resulting
from industrial productions will still be about 10% lower than the expected value for the coming
10 years to come. The life standards of Mwanza residents will increasingly deteriorate
considering the high rate of population growth.

9. RECOMMENDATIONS
This is what we would like to recommend as probable solutions or what should be done for the
betterment of Mwanza region regarding power consumption. Firstly, the government must
implement its “vision 2035” policy since it covers most aspects including power supply and
demand issue.
We would like to urge other researchers to investigate the impacts of power supply on the
agricultural sector which is one of the most crucial sectors in Tanzania as a whole, but was not
investigated in this piece of research.
Electrical units
MW=Megawatts
KVA=Kilovolt amperes
KWH= Kilowatt-hour
MWH= Megawatt-hour
GWH= Gigawatt-hour

10. References and bibliography
1. Nassoro W. M., (1997) Mwanza socio-economic profile. The planning commission –Dar es
Salaam & The regional commissioner’s office-Mwanza, 111-113.
2. Eng. Msyani C. M., (2012) Current energy status in Tanzania, 14.
3. Parsons Brinkerhoff, (2012).
Appendix
Questionnaire used:
1. Which ones do you apply among the following items? (Put a tick to the right)
Lighting items Electric cookers Iron boxes
Refrigerators TV/ Radio set Music system
Air conditioners Washing machine Others
2. In your own words, why is your electricity usage as indicated above?
Acknowledgement
This report is a result of our own study that took us about a month to accomplish. We have been
supported academically, financially and socially by many people. We thank and acknowledge
them.
Firstly, we thank the Almighty GOD, our Lord for granting us his unequalled love.
Secondly, we are really grateful towards Eng. Joseph of Victoria molders Ltd and all other
technicians from other factories for their assistance on operational data.
Finally, we would like to thank all the members of the department of electrical engineering
including lecturers and students for their contribution in one way or another. Our broad
appreciation will not be meaningful if we forget the TANESCO regional office for statistical
assistance without which this work would not be accomplished.