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The World This Week Apr 07 to Apr 12


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The World This Week Apr 07 to Apr 12

  1. 1. The World This Week Apr 07 – Apr 12, 2014
  2. 2. Equity View: The markets continue with an upward trend. There was a strong rally backed by banks. We had key macro economic data points coming in with the CAD numbers for the month of March around $ 10 million which was the worst number in the last six months, although the overall current account deficit for the full year has been contained. There is some concern about the exports growth in the last few months and the government did sound that the gold import curbs are going to stay for some more time considering the fact that export growth has been muted. Our view is that we do not expect a very significant appreciation of the rupee against the dollar because of two reasons : 1. Due to softness of export growth 2. We will see master intervention by RBI should rupee appreciate beyond 58 - 59 levels which is going to be up for various export oriented companies like pharma and IT. We have the IT sector coming up with the results starting tomorrow. On an average we expect the industry to deliver around 3% q-o-q revenue growth. The growth numbers for Infosys would be quite muted although we are expecting q-o-q growth to be around 0.4-0.5%. We expect the margins to stay put at the current levels. The stocks of Infosys & TCS have already corrected largely in anticipation of weak results and we would use this correction in IT stocks as a buying opportunity from our long term buy position of the IT sector. In terms of other macroeconomic numbers we had IIP numbers for the month of February coming in again with a negative slide. There is no sign as yet of any revival in the manufacturing space or in the industrial activity. The capital goods numbers showed a significant deceleration of around 15% on a y-o-y basis. There is no sign that the whole infrastructure sector is beginning to revive. We believe that it will be around another 2-3 months before we see any significant reforms in the IIP numbers. These numbers are very critical as it will give us an indication whether the infrastructure cycle is showing any sign of revival. Till that point of time we will continue to maintain our cautious view on the infrastructure and capital goods stocks. We believe that one should buy only quality stocks in this rally because it is not backed by fundamentals specifically as far as the infrastructure and real estate stocks are concerned. As far as the broader markets are concerned, we continue to maintain bullish stance for the rest of the year. We have a year end target of 24800 on Sensex and we believe that this rally will continue in the months to come.
  3. 3. News: DOMESTIC MACRO:  IMF says India’s growth could recover to 5.4% in the current fiscal year and to 6.4% in the next year to March 2016 due to stronger global growth, an improvement in export competitiveness and implementation of the recently-approved investment projects; however, pegs growth at 4.6% for FY 2013- 14.  RBI data shows Indian companies raised $4.30 bn through foreign loans in February against $1.79 bn in January.  RBI says existing guidelines on interest rates for overseas borrowings will continue for three more months till June 30, 2014.  Export-Import Bank of India signs a Memorandum of Understanding with the International Trade Centre in Geneva to promote trade between India and East African nations. GLOBAL MACRO EURO  UK visible trade deficit narrowed in February to 9.1 bn pounds from 9.5 bn pounds in January.  Bank of England holds interest rates at 0.5% and keeps quantitative easing at 375 bn pounds. United States  US import prices rose 0.6% in March compared to a 0.9% rise in February; export prices rose 0.8% in March compared to a 0.7% rise in February.  US budget deficit came in at $37bn in March, a decrease of $70bn, or 65%, from the shortfall posted in the same month last year.  IMF estimates US to grow 3.6% this year and 3.9% next year, up from 3% in 2013. China  China’s imports fell 11.3% year-on-year to $162.4bn in March after rising 10.1% in February, while exports fell 6.6% to $170.1bn in March after plunging 18.1% in February, thereby leaving the country with a trade surplus of $7.7bn for March, compared with a trade deficit of $23bn in February. Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 7/4/2014 22,343 7,165 13,265 14,305 6,640 11,914 6,875 10,364 8,867 10,134 9,584 1,712 1,506 4,947 9/4/2014 22,702 7,285 13,499 14,799 6,725 12,132 6,910 10,593 8,771 10,363 9,702 1,742 1,534 4,906 10/4/2014 22,715 7,331 13,573 14,806 6,699 12,327 6,878 10,438 8,701 10,386 9,773 1,786 1,553 4,870 11/4/2014 22,629 7,338 13,410 14,690 6,726 12,205 6,859 10,532 8,835 10,352 9,648 1,782 1,557 4,929 1.28% 2.42% 1.09% 2.69% 1.30% 2.45% -0.25% 1.62% -0.36% 2.15% 0.66% 4.07% 3.42% -0.38%
  4. 4. Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 7/4/2014 59.95 99.36 82.15 58.13 6437 28691 8/4/2014 - - - - 6344 - 9/4/2014 60.07 100.56 82.79 58.88 6455 28919 10/4/2014 60.21 101.05 83.33 59.18 6487 29140 11/4/2014 60.27 101.10 83.74 59.20 6470 29224 -0.53% Rupee Depreciated -1.72% Rupee Depreciated -1.89% Rupee Depreciated -1.81% Rupee Depreciated -0.51% -1.86% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 8.63 -10 2-Year 8.71 -4 5-Year 8.96 -11 10-Year 8.94 -13
  5. 5. Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Nupur Gupta Ridhdhi Chheda Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above- mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”